1

A DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT FORECASTING AND RESERVOIRS

MANAGEMENT IN NORTHEAST-BRAZIL

Marcos Airton de Sousa Freitas

Water Resources, Environmental Eng. and

Applied Computation Research Group
University of Fortaleza - UNIFOR, Brazil.
Av. Washington Soares, 1321 CEP 60811-341
e-mail: freitas@feq.unifor.br

ABSTRACT

Different methods and models have been developed, applied and incorporated in a Decision Support
System towards the regional analysis of the droughts in Northeast-Brazil. Methods for drought
forecasting were statistical and neuro-fuzzy systems analysis of the patterns of atmospheric and
oceanic conditions of the tropical Atlantic and Pacific oceans. For the drought management by
reservoirs, stochastic simulation models were evaluated by statistical parameters, required reservoir
capacity and drought characteristics.

RESUMO

Para a análise regional integrada do fenômeno das secas no Nordeste do Brasil foram desenvolvidos e
aplicados diversos métodos e modelos, que foram incorporados a um Sistema de Suporte à Decisão.
Para a previsão de secas foram empregados modelos estatísticos e sistemas neuro-fuzzy a partir dos
padrões das condições atmosféricas e oceânicas no Atlântico e Pacífico tropicais. Já na gestão dos
recursos hídricos durante períodos de secas foram usados modelos estocásticos para a simulação da
operação de reservatórios, levando-se em consideração a reprodução dos parâmetros estatísticos nas
séries geradas, a capacidade normalizada requerida pelo reservatório e os parâmetros característicos
dos períodos secos.

1. INTRODUCTION

The droughts of Northeast-Brazil have recurrently led to starvation, mass exodus and social
conflicts, and their eventual prediction remains a central concern (MAGALHÃES, 1993). The
vulnerability of agricultural production due to water deficit and the development of large-scale multi-
purpose water supply systems implies that drought analysis is required at a regional scale.

A comprehensive approach for studying regional drought problems includes (ROSSI et al.,
1992): a) identification of meteorological causes and drought forecast; b) evaluation of hydrological
drought characteristics; c) analysis of economic, environmental and social effects of drought, and d)
definition of appropriate measures for controlling drought effects.

For the regional analysis of the droughts of Northeast-Brazil different methods and models
have been developed, applied and incorporated in a Decision Support System. A Decision Support
System (DSS) is an advisory system for management, usually computed-based, that utilizes databases,
models, and communication/dialog system to provide decision markers with management information
(GRIGG, 1995). In this Decision Support System emphasis is given on drought forecasting and
drought management (FREITAS, 1997).

2. DROUGHT FORECASTING
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2.1 Statistical Analysis

The identification of the meteorological causes and the development of a method to predict the
droughts of Northeast-Brazil have been done by analysis of the global circulation systems, especially
the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), and the patterns of atmospheric and oceanic conditions of
the tropical Atlantic. Correlation between the precipitation in Northeast-Brazil and global circulation
indices like sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic, wind stress
and air pressure gradient in the Pacific (Darwin-Tahiti) allows an estimation of future precipitation.

In this study different data sources have been used: for SST of the Pacific the indices of
WRIGHT (1989), for SST and wind stress of the Atlantic the data of PICAUT et al. (1985), SERVAIN
et al. (1987) and SERVAIN & LUKAS (1990). The objective of the statistical analysis was to obtain
on the basis of 30 precipitation stations located in the Federal State of Ceará the severity of
dependency between the incidence of the El Niño and the incidence of droughts in Ceará (FREITAS,
1997).

2.2 Neuro-Fuzzy-Systems

Recently, significant progress in the fields of pattern recognition and system theory have been
made by artificial neural network modelling (KOSKO, 1992). Neural networks have a flexible
mathematical structure, and are capable of identifying nonlinear relationships and of describing
complex processes. The combination of neural network and fuzzy sets allows the use of additional
information, which is actually not well defined (FREITAS & BILLIB, 1997).

In this study different approaches for the drought prediction of Northeast-Brazil have been
tested: modelling the time series of precipitation by the use of neural network for reference stations,
and neuro-fuzzy systems analysis for the pattern recognition of the SST data of both Pacific and the
tropical Atlantic. For the 30 precipitation stations of Ceará a regional rainfall departure index
according to LAMB et al. (1986) has been calculated for the rainy season and correlated with the SST
of the Atlantic. Only the SST data of the region where the correlation is higher than 0.3 have been used
as input to the neuro-fuzzy model.

Among several learning methods the best known is the so-called Standard_Backpropagation
(ZELL, 1996). A modified version of these method with a learning rate
, a 'momentum' term and 'flat
spot elimination' has been tested. The algorithms QUICKPROP and BPTT (BackPropagation Through
Time) have also been applied. All data have been normalized (interval 0.0 - 0.9) and the logistic
function has been used as activation function.

For some rainfall stations neural networks were applied in order to predict the monthly rainfall
based on the SST-patterns of the Pacific Ocean. Figure 1 and 2 show the result of this analysis to the
Ipaguassu station using the algorithms QUICKPROP e BPTT, respectively. Four-layer networks have
been used. The years 1911-40 have been used for training and the years 1941-88 for verification. The
application to all 30 stations gives a regional distribution of rainfall prediction classified by wet,
normal and dry. As a consequence of these results, an early warning could be given to farmers 6
months before rainy season starts.

3. RESERVOIRS MANAGEMENT

3.1 General aspects

The controlling of drought effects can be done in Northeast-Brazil by appropriate management

of the reservoirs. For the evaluation of the risk by droughts stochastic simulation models can be
applied. Due to the climatic and geological conditions of the region most rivers are intermittent, so
special simulation models are necessary for the generation of the runoff.
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For the management of the water resources in semi-arid regions it is very important to analyze
the impacts of extreme droughts. This can be done by generating long time series and Monte-Carlo
analysis. In this study several stochastic models are selected, applied and evaluated by comparing the
statistical parameters, potential reservoir capacity, and drought characteristics like duration, severity,
and magnitude.

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5 Observed

0.4 Predicted

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out

Figure 1: Normalized Monthly Rainfall at Station Ipaguassu Using the QUICKPROP Algorithm
(without adaptive process)

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5 Observed

0.4 Predicted

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out Jan Apr Jul Out

Figure 2: Normalized Monthly Rainfall at Station Ipaguassu Using the BPTT Algorithm (without
adaptive process)

3.2 Evaluation of stochastic models

In a first step the following monthly models has been evaluated by statistical parameters
(FREITAS, 1995):
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- PAR-Model (Thomas/Fiering) with modification by CLARKE(1973)

- PAR-Model (Thomas/Fiering) with transformation by MATALAS(1967)
- Two-tier model (PAR(1)/AR(1) with log-gamma distribution)
- Two-tier model (PAR(1)/AR(1) with log-normal distribution)
- Two-tier model (PAR(1)/GAR(1) by FERNANDEZ & SALAS; 1990)
- Fragment method for AR(1) with log-gamma distribution
- Fragment method for AR(1) with log-normal distribution
- Fragment method for GAR(1)
- Disaggregation model/AR(1) by VALENCIA & SCHAAKE(1973)

The models have been applied to four catchments of different area by generation of 100 series
of 50 years. In the second step two models, both with one year time step, the AR(1)- and the GAR(1)-
model, have been evaluated by use of the Sequent-Peak-Algorithm (LOUCKS et al., 1981) for the
calculation of the necessary reservoir capacity. For both models 1,000 fifty-year synthetic streamflow
sequences have been adjusted to the Weibull probability distribution. One important finding is that
almost no streamflow sequences have been generated containing more extreme drought periods than
the historical sequence.

As the stochastic models should be used for drought simulation, they were studied in the third
step through the analysis of the statistical parameters of the drought characteristics (duration,
cumulative deficit and intensity). The GAR(1)-Model showed better results than the AR(1)-Model, but
neither was sufficient for the reproduction of drought characteristics.

3.3 Alternating Renewal Reward Model (ARR-Model)

To get a better simulation of drought characteristics, the Alternating Renewal Reward Model
(KENDALL & DRACUP, 1992) was chosen: A basic assumption of this model is that each drought
event is part of an independent population, but it depends on the duration. For the simulation of the wet
and dry periods the geometric distribution and for the cumulative deficit the gamma distribution have
been used.

Due to the short sample two procedures have been applied for the identification of the
probability distribution of the duration and the cumulative deficit: decimation and standardization. The
application of the Alternating Renewal Reward Model coupled with the Fragment Method showed the
best results, compared with the historical sequence by the Index Sequential Method.

mean streamflow

70

60

50 Maximo
40 Mediano
m3/s

Historico
30
Minimo
20

10

0
j f m a m j j a s o n d
month

Figure 3. Historic and synthetic statistical parameters (mean) of the station Fazenda Cajazeiras (Rio
Acaraú)
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4. CONCLUSIONS

The droughts of Northeast-Brazil can be partially predicted by conditional probabilities of the

rainfall related to the SST-index of the Pacific ocean. The likelihood of below-, near-, and above
normal rainfall for each station can be calculated. The use of the Atlantic data improved the rainfall
prediction by the application of the neuro-fuzzy systems analysis.

Based on the drought prediction, the actual reservoir management is developed by stochastic
simulation. By the comparison of the performance of the stochastic models the Alternating Renewal
Reward Model describes best the drought characteristics. The results of the whole drought
management approach show that the developed methods give satisfactory predictions of droughts and
appropriate tools for the reservoir management in Northeast-Brazil.

5. REFERENCES

CLARKE, R.T.: Mathematical Models in Hydrology, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, N° 19,
1973.
FERNANDEZ, B. ; SALAS, J.D.: Gamma-Autoregressive Models for Stream-flow Simulation,
Journal of Hydr. Eng., 116(11), 1403-1414, 1990.
FREITAS, M.A.S.: Stochastische Abflussgenerierung in intermittierenden semiariden Gebieten
(Nordost-Brasilien), Abschlussarbeit, Weiterbildendes Studium Bauingenieurwesen - Wasser und
Umwelt, Universität Hannover, Deutschland, 1995.
FREITAS, M.A.S.: Regional Drought Analysis by Statistic Methods und Neuro-Fuzzy-Systems
with Application to Northeast-Brazil (in German), PhD Thesis, University Hannover,
Germany,1997.
FREITAS, M.A.S.; BILLIB, M.H.A.: Drought Prediction and Characteristic Analysis in Semi-
Arid Ceará / Northeast Brazil, in: Proceedings of Rabat Symposium “Sustainability of Water
Resources Under Increasing Uncertainty”, IAHS Publ. N° 240, 105-112, Rabat, 1997.
GRIGG, N.S.: Water Resources Management, Mc Graw-Hill, 1995.
KENDALL, D.R.; DRACUP, J.A.: On the Generation of Drought Events Using an Alternating
Renewal-Reward Model. Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul. 6, 55-68, 1992.
KOSKO, B.: Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems, A Dynamical Systems Approach to Machine
Intelligence, Prentice-Hall, Inc.,Englewood Cliffs, N.J., USA, 1992.
LAMB, P.J.; PEPPLER, R.A.; HASTENRATH, S.: Interannual Variability in the Atlantic, Nature,
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LOUCKS, D.P.; STEDINGER, J.R.; HAITH, D.A.: Water Resource Systems Planning and
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MAGALHÃES, A.R.: Drought and Policy Responses in the Brazilian Northeast. in: D.A. Wilhite
(ed.), 1993: Drought Assessment, Management, and Planning: Theory and Case Studies. Kluwer
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Temperature 1985-1989: Oceans Tropicaux Atmosphere Globale, ORSTOM, 1990.
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Resources Research, 9(3), 580-585, 1973.
WRIGHT, P.B.: Homogeneized Long-Period Southern Oscillations Indices, Int. Journal of
Climatology, 9, 33-54, 1989.
ZELL, A : Simulation Neuronaler Nezte, Addison-Wesley, 1994.