Contributions to Economic Analysis Series

Contributions to Economic Analysis: Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications, Volume 2 focuses on the theory of production from the standpoint of the "dual", the relationships between economic observables which are dual to physical technology. The selection first ponders on duality, intermediate inputs and value-added, Hicks' aggregation theorem and the existence of a real value-added function, and homotheticity and real value-added in Canadian manufacturing. Discussions focus on real value-added and the production structure, estimation of the production structure, double deflation and real value-added, measurement of total productivity, and duality between direct and conditional indirect utility functions. The book then examines the estimation techniques for the elasticity of substitution and other production parameters and measurement of the elasticity of factor substitution and bias of technical change. The publication takes a look at the identification of technical change in the electricity generating industry, factor substitution in electricity generation, and the effectiveness of rate-of-return regulation. Topics include statistical tests of regulatory effectiveness, profit function for a regulated firm, tests of the structure of technology, identification problems in the measurement of technical change, and measurement of disembodied technical change. The selection is a valuable source of information for economists and researchers interested in production economics.

The Fix-Point Approach to Interdependent Systems

This volume comprises papers presented at the Symposium on Collective Choice, by leading experts in this field. It presents recent advances in Social Choice Theory and Welfare Economics. The papers are classified in two broad groups: (1) those dealing with the ethical aspects of the theory of social choice and (2) those concerned with the positive aspects. The papers in the first part are concerned with the Arrow-type aggregation problem or aspects of it and with more specific questions relating to optimality, justice and welfare. In part II several papers discuss the problem of strategic misrevelation of preferences by individuals, others discuss simple voting games, social choice-correspondences and electoral competition. The main features are: - Recent advances in social choice theory and welfare economics - New mathematical approaches to social choice theory (differential and algebraic topology) -New aspects of the concepts of justice and optimality in welfare economics and social choice.

This book develops the theory of durable choice and utilization. The basic assumption is that the demand for energy is a derived demand arising through the production of household services. Durable choice is associated with the choice of a particular technology for providing the household service. Econometric systems are derived which capture both the discrete choice nature of appliance selection and the determination of continuous conditional demand. Using the National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) from 1978, a nested logit model of room air-conditioning, central air-conditioning, space-heating and water heating is estimated. The estimated probability choice model is used to forecast the impacts of proposed building standards for newly constructed single family detached residences. A network thermal model provides unit energy consumptions for alternative heating and cooling systems across time. Monthly billing data matched to NIECS is analyzed permitting seasonal estimation of the demand for electricity and natural gas by households. The theory of price specification for demand subject to a declining rate structure is reviewed and tested. Finally, consistent estimation procedures are used in the presence of possible correlation between dummy variables indicating appliance ownership and the equation error. The hypothesis of simultaneity in the demand system is tested. Conditional moments in the generalized extreme value family are derived to extend discrete continuous econometric systems in which discrete choice is assumed logistic. An efficiency comparison of various two-stage consistent estimation techniques applied to a single equation of a dummy endogenous simultaneous equation system is undertaken and asymptotic distributions are derived for each estimation method.

The book is an attempt to construct frameworks for the analysis of oligopoly which combine both the rivalrous and cooperative elements in the market structure of mature oligopolistic industries. It provides an alternative approach to those of game theory and conjectural variation, and does so in a fashion that permits: - the development of a general equilibrium framework that incorporates oligolopy - operational analysis of pricing policies in oligolopy - the tailoring of the analytical framework to the specifics of an industry within the context of multiobjective decision making. The book stresses the need for economic theory to move away from the search for universal theorems concerning oligopolistic behaviour, and to develop a body of specific industry analyses using ``simulative theorizing''.

This volume surveys the state-of-the-art of global international modeling. All 15 models included in the survey feature national or regional disaggregation of the world economy and interdependencies among the various nations and regions. A few are constructed for short-term forecasting, but the primary focus is on long-run models and applications. Macroeconomic, input-output, general equilibrium, trade and exchange rate, and several hybrid models are included. A cross-sectional analysis by the editor compares the structures, linkage mechanisms, methodologies and applications of the various models and concludes with some observations on prospective research trends.

Essays in the Economics of Exhaustible Resources

Professor Leif Johansen's contributions to economic science are well documented in his articles and essays for economic journals, symposium volumes and Festschrifts, all of which are to be published by North-Holland. When initiating the idea of this collection, Professor Dale W. Jorgenson also suggested a memorial volume by associates and others that would include papers devoted to research topics directly inspired by Leif Johansen. In the present volume this idea is realised. Three topics are covered: production theory, multisectoral growth models and planning. The papers presented here were either under work at the time of Leif Johansen's death or prepared especially for this volume.

It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues. The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do. An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises. It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.

The object of this book is to compare the macroeconomic characteristics of the French and German economies. It focusses on the effect of stabilization policy and of international disturbances and tries to find out the trade-offs of economic policy. The study is based on a simulation analysis using large-scale econometric models of the two countries. Instead of using models as black boxes the dynamic structures are compared in considerable detail. This entails decomposing the models into blocs of strategic sets of equations. Comparing bloc by bloc allows one to distinguish between the contribution of various economic processes (price-wage dynamics, monetary mechanism, multiplier-accelerator interaction) to macroeconomic performance. Main features: Franco-German comparison of macroeconomic response to policy measures and international shocks; Evaluation of policy trade-offs; Detailed institutional and historical background to macro-policy in France and Germany.

The purpose of this study is to investigate interrelations between planning mechanisms and disequilibria in a case where the planning decisions are centralized and are exogenously given to enterprises. The first introductory chapter is intended to provide an understanding of Poland's economic situation during the period under research. In the next five chapters the basic model, describing the households-planners relations in terms of consumption, labour, money and plans are derived, estimated, used for calculation of excess demands, for simulation of some monetary policies, and, finally, for providing optimal control experiments in which consumption excess demand is minimized on a reasonable level of the consumption volume. In the next two chapters the basic model is gradually extended, and the last chapter summarizes the results by formulating a more effective macroeconomic policy.

An attempt to define, measure and explain poverty is presented in this volume by means of a newly developed theoretical model. A combination of theory and empirical application is achieved by using the theoretical model on a sizeable data set derived from an extensive survey conducted in eight European countries. The nature of poverty is thereby empirically defined (and not a priori) as being the income level at which households feel that their income is just between sufficient and insufficient. An aggregate poverty index, associated with this poverty line definition, is calculated for each country and for subgroups within each country. Conclusions for social policy are drawn, describing which groups are at especially high risk of entering poverty, and who therefore need more specific policies. It is also discussed to what extent economic growth will eliminate poverty and which alternative measures are available.

Using recent research on Ecuador, this book discusses a social accounting matrix (SAM)-based model for simulating the effects of basic needs policies on various socio-economic groups. Specific parameter choice and specification of relationships allow the general equilibrium model to capture rigidities and occurrences of non-perfect commodity and factor markets. Basic needs satisfaction is described as an ``output'' resulting from income formation and expenditure, and dynamically linked to the structural processes of household and socio-economic group formation, formation of the labour force and wealth, and labour productivity. Simulations concentrate on the effects of various expenditure, indirect tax and redistributive policies on incomes and basic needs satisfaction.

This is the first major joint presentation of macroeconomic models of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. Its origin is a selection of the presentations at a seminar on macroeconomic modelling in the Nordic countries held in Lyngby, Denmark, 8-9 October 1984, sponsored by the Nordic Ministries of Finance. The book is concentrated around a thorough presentation of the main macroeconomic medium-term models used in government planning and policy-making in each of the four countries. These models are: in Denmark, ADAM, developed by the Central Statistical Office, in Finland, KESSU, developed within the Ministry of Finance, in Norway, MODAG, developed by the Central Bureau of Statistics, and in Sweden, EMMA, developed within the Ministry of Finance. An introduction to Nordic macroeconomic models is provided, as well as significant features of the institutional use of models within governments in these countries. On the basis of the data presented in the book, the effects of devaluation, wage increases and fiscal policy in the Nordic economies can be compared with each other as well as with other small open economies.

Advances in computer technology, coupled with the sophistication of econometric modelling, have enabled rapid progress in the formulation and solution of optimal control and filtering programmes, especially in the sphere of macroeconomic policy designing. These developments in systems methodology have prompted the need for an interface between optimal control theory and dynamic macroeconomic analysis. The implications of this convergence have already aroused a great deal of research, but it remains to be seen whether policy makers in most developing countries will consider actually incorporating these techniques into planning. The author argues that control and systems theory can be of immense help in stabilizing those economies plagued by cyclical and structural problems. By demonstrating the applicability of control & filter theory to short-term macroeconomic planning, this book illuminates the impressive array of problems that can thereby be solved, and helps foster a closer working relationship between economists and control theorists. The work deals specifically with the construction of a Kalman filter mechanism, for deriving short-term optimal economic policies under conditions of uncertainty. It specifies and resolves a macroeconometric model which is linked to a unique observation sub-system of a given economy, congruent with the errors in information signalling which are prevalent within the data base context of most developing countries. An evaluation of control settings contrasts short and long-term economic policies. This indicates that an economy may `overheat' under protracted settings of instrument values around their optimal levels if the constraints on the system, in the form of external shocks, are too great to allow reaching all targets simultaneously using feasible instrument paths.

The papers in this volume present a quite critical assessment of contingent valuation (CV). CV is a survey method that attempts to estimate individual values for economic goods by asking people hypothetical questions about their willingness to pay for such goods. In economics, CV has previously been studied almost solely by economists specializing in environmental economics. This book, however, reports research which is mainly from economists with specialities in economic theory, econometrics, and public finance, rather than from the more narrowly focused research of environmental economists. In addition, the research of specialists in psychology, market research, and litigation is included.

Large-scale macroeconomic models have been used extensively to analyze a wide range of important economic issues. They were originally developed to study the economy's response to monetary and fiscal policies. During the 1970s these models were expanded and revised to track the inflationary processes and to incorporate key energy variables so that they could be used to examine the impacts of energy price shocks. This study compares the responses of 14 prominent macroeconomic models to supply-side shocks in the form of sudden energy price increases or decreases and to policies for lessening the impacts of price jumps. Four energy price shocks were examined: oil price increases of 50 and 20 percent, an oil price reduction of 20 percent, and an 80 percent increase in domestic natural gas prices. Five policy responses were considered for offsetting the GNP impacts of the larger oil price increase: monetary accommodation, an income tax rate reduction, an increase in the investment tax credit for equipment, a reduction in the employer's payroll tax rate, and an oil stockpile release. The study was conducted by a working group comprised of about 40 modelers and potential model users from universities, business, and government. As in previous EMF studies, the group pursued two broad goals. Firstly, they sought to understand the models themselves by identifying important similarities as well as structural differences. Secondly, they sought to use the models to sharpen their understanding of energy shocks and of the related policy issues. Their conclusions appear as the first chapter in this volume, the remaining chapters providing more technical treatment of the key structural differences among the participating models as well as their use for evaluating energy policies. This volume is addressed particularly to those interested in the energy shock issue, as well as to those with a broader interest in macroeconomic models and policies.

Recent international economic events have demonstrated the vulnerability of individual countries to external disturbances, or `shocks'. Such disturbances necessitate major adjustments to developing countries' trade behaviour, and therefore also to their domestic economies. This volume is an integrated theoretical and econometric study of the impact of global economic changes on the developing Turkish economy during the period 1970-1983. Structural adjustment is defined and presented in the context of a small open economy reacting to external shocks. The interaction of government and private sector is incorporated explicitly in an intertemporal model through examination of dynamic game equilibria, and the implications of this interaction for the effectiveness of stabilization and liberalization policies are explored. This theoretical structure provides the structure for macroeconomic estimation. The estimated model then is employed for an econometric decomposition of Turkish historical economic experience into portions due to various external shocks and government policy changes. The theoretical section demonstrates the necessity of consideration of government/private interactions when measuring and evaluating structural adjustment policies. The econometric results confirm the importance of such analysis for Turkey, and provide evidence of the impact of various government policies on aggregate consumption, investment, inflation and current account deficits. This book will be of use to both international and development economists as a systematic and insightful examination of structural adjustment in Turkey, as well as a template for similar analyses for other open economies.

The aim of this volume is to consider intertemporal and strategic issues in the formulation of economic policy so that dynamic game methodology is appropriate. When changes in economic policy are evaluated the reactions and expectations of other economic agents cannot be ignored, and in a dynamic setting issues like time inconsistency, subgame perfectness, reputation and information become important. The papers contained in this volume are the revised versions of those presented at a conference held in 1988 at Tilburg University, The Netherlands. They include methodological contributions and strategic analyses of macroeconomic policy, resource economics, international policy coordination and the arms race.

The research published here constitutes a profound reflection on what is taking place in the world of agriculture at the threshold of the year 2000. The book attempts to go beyond a narrow sectoral analysis of the primary sector. It sets out to focus instead on the dynamic and innovative aspects of the agrotechnological system constituted by the complex interdependence of the agro-production, agro-food, agro-industrial and agro-ecological subsystems. The authors, internationally renowned scholars and scientists, tackle the most pressing contemporary economics issues from both a theoretical and policy-making standpoint. Three different lines of research are pursued concerning, first, the evolution and trends of world and European agricultural production, second, agricultural surplus formation and productivity dynamics in the economies of industrialized countries, and, lastly, the destination of agricultural outputs and land allotment under the impact of agro-bio-technologies.

This book arose out of research carried out by the authors in the period 1983-1987 whilst at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. A number of things combined to impart the basic thrust of the research: partly the developments in formulating and estimating rational expectations models, and partly actual developments in the UK economy itself. An application of recent developments in dynamic modelling to a complete macroeconometric model of the UK is presented. Rational expectations modelling, co-integration and disequilibrium modelling are covered. The book also develops computational procedures for obtaining efficient solutions to large-scale models, and illustrates model solutions assuming rational expectations and stochastic simulations. Finally, sections on the analysis of models using optimal control methods illustrate applications of a large-scale econometric model. This section also discusses policy applications, including the derivation of time-consistent policies in the presence of rational expectations, giving quantified illustrations.

This volume examines the changing pattern of trade in manufactured goods by the use of econometric techniques. The method of investigation employed is cross-section analysis of data for thirty-eight developed and developing countries, for each of which manufactured goods accounted for at least 18 percent of total exports and surpassed 300 million in 1979. The results may further be interpreted in terms of the changes that occur in the pattern of specialization in the process of economic development.

This book collects the revised and edited proceedings of the conference held in honour of the 50th anniversary of Professor Tinbergen's first macroeconomic policy model. Written by experts both in the field of model building and policy analysis, the contributions provide an invaluable overview of the state of the art and the use of macroeconomic models in our time.

The present volume provides a timely collection of material on the subject of international comparisons, contributed by leading scholars from an extensive range of relevant disciplines and geographical backgrounds. The papers in this volume have been classified into two broad groups united by overlapping themes. Part I includes essentially empirical papers intended to provide a clear picture of the different types of international comparisons that have been undertaken by various organizations and individuals. The papers relate to empirical studies of different sectoral and national income aggregates at both regional and global levels. The papers in Part II deal with methodological and analytical issues. Discussion of the appropriateness of various aggregation methods for international comparisons accounts for a major component of this section. The volume provides a set of stimulating studies on international comparisons of prices, output and productivity, and will provide a useful reference source for many interested readers around the world.

In many western countries with slow economic growth and population growth the increasing cost of the social security system is a concern. The contributions in this volume address this issue from various angles, theoretically as well as empirically and also taking into account institutional conditions. This book discusses current social security policy issues and related research from a number of western countries. Papers include the following subjects: - Recent policy changes in the UK and the Federal Public of Germany - Distributional effects of social security - Public choice models of social security - Economic incentive effects of unemployment insurance and occupational pensions - The macroeconomic effects of the growth of benefits and their financing

Fundamentals of Ocean Renewable Energy: Generating Electricity from the Sea presents the basic concepts of mechanics and introduces the various technical aspects of ocean renewable energy. Contents follow a logical sequence, starting with hydrodynamics and then separately examining each conversion technology, with special focus on tidal energy, offshore wind and wave energy, as well as current and ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC). The authors explore key topics for resource characterization and optimization, such as monitoring and measurement methods and ocean modeling. They also discuss the sustainability, planning, integration and distribution challenges for the implementation of these technologies, including co-location with other systems. Finally, case studies of ocean energy sites and devices allow for a better understanding of how ocean energy conversion works in real-world settings. This book is an invaluable resource for students at graduate and senior undergraduate level engineering (ocean, mechanical, and civil) and oceanography with prior knowledge of fluid mechanics and mechanics of materials. Presents the fundamental physics and theory behind ocean energy systems, covering both oceanographic and engineering aspects of ocean energy Explores the most widely adopted conversion technologies, including tidal, wave, offshore wind, ocean thermal and currents