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The Greatest Horse of All: A Controversy Examined
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Using the most basic statistics, completely explained, the author selects the sixteen most likely candidates for the title: "greatest horse of the twentieth century."
Fifty colts and fillies, listed mainly ina 1999 publication by The Blood-Horse, Inc., were compared using a three-part process. This process narrowed the top contenders to sixteen.
The past performance data for these Thoroughbreds were obtained from the Daily Racing Form's 2000 publication Champions.
Using results identical to those explained in the book, the author calculates that the best likely average time for Big Brown to run the upcoming Belmont is 147.54 seconds, or 2:27.54.
One hundred simulations at 12 furlongs, based on Big Brown's current 2008 performance data and the past 36 years of Belmont winning times, indicate he has a 72-percent chance of winning the triple crown.
The identical formulas used in the book on the past performance data for Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, came within fractional seconds of predicting their Belmont/Triple Crown wins.
Of course, as most Wall Street pundits will warn, past performance is not a guarantee of future performance!
And now, in retrospect, Big Brown sadly did not win. Had he run as he was capable, the predicted time stated above would have beaten the winner, Da'Tara, by 2.09 seconds!
Charles Justice
June 5 and 9, 2008
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Charles Justice
DR. CHARLES JUSTICE has twenty years experience in applied statistics. His boyhood fascination with Thoroughbreds surfaced when Blood-Horse, Inc. published Thoroughbred Champions: Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century in 1999. Finding scant evidence that the book’s selection were made using more than general opinion, he published his own analysis in 2008 of 50 of its top-ranked horses—The Greatest Horse of All: A Controversy Examined. A second related book, Beyond Greatness: Four Thoroughbred Legends followed in 2011.
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