Sustainable Urban Mobility Pathways: Policies, Institutions, and Coalitions for Low Carbon Transportation in Emerging Countries

Sustainable Urban Mobility Pathways

Policies, Institutions, and Coalitions for Low Carbon Transportation in Emerging Countries

Edited by

Oliver Lah

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy & Climate Action Implementation Facility, Berlin, Germany

Table of Contents

Cover image

Title page

Copyright

List of Contributors

Introduction

Related Projects

Chapter 1. Trends, Drivers, and Pathways for Sustainable Urban Mobility

Abstract

Introduction

Trends, Drivers, and Pathways

Potential for Cobenefits

Coalitions and Institutions

Toward an Integrated Policy and Governance Framework for the Decarbonization of the Transport Sector

References

Further Reading

Chapter 2. Sustainable Urban Mobility Solutions for Asia, Latin America and the Mediterranean Region

Abstract

Introduction

Brazil

Mexico

China

India

Urban Mobility Needs, Policy Barriers and Uptake of Sustainable Solutions in Mediterranean Partner Countries

The Mediterranean Region

Israel

Morocco

Turkey

Conclusions

Acknowledgments

Further Reading

Chapter 3. Decarbonization Scenarios for Transport and the Role of Urban Mobility

Abstract

Introduction

Decarbonizing Land Transport—A Global Perspective

Roles of Different Mitigation Strategies

The Role of Public Transport, Walking, and Cycling in a 2°C Pathway

Cities as Hotspots of Cobenefits and Enablers for the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy

Scenario Development for Mid-Sized Cities

Results and Discussion

Conclusions

References

Further Reading

Chapter 4. Opportunities for Synergies and Cobenefits

Abstract

Introduction

Low-Carbon Transport as an Enabler for Sustainable Transport Policy Coalitions

Conclusions

Acknowledgments

References

Further Reading

Chapter 5. Governance and Institutions for a Long-Term Transition to Low-Carbon Mobility

Abstract

Introduction

Methodology: Factors for Continuity and Change

The Relevance of Institutional Political Science Approaches

Institutional Factors and How They Relate to Policy Outputs and Outcomes

Example: Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Regulation in the EU and US

Example: Urban Mobility Solutions in India and Brazil

Analysis

Conclusions

References

Further Reading

Chapter 6. National Urban Mobility Policy Frameworks

Abstract

Introduction

Obstacles to Low-Carbon Transport

Conclusion

References

Further Reading

Chapter 7. Sustainable Urban Mobility in Action

Abstract

Introduction

References

Further Reading

Factsheets

Cluster 1: Public Transport

Cluster 2: Transport Infrastructure

Cluster 3: City Logistics

Cluster 4: Integrated Planning/Sustainable Urban Mobility

Cluster 5: Network and Mobility Management

Cluster 6: Clean Vehicles and Electric Mobility

Index

Copyright

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List of Contributors

Saul Alveano,     World Resources Institute, Mexico City, Mexico

Magdala Arioli

Laboratory of Transport Systems, Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil

Climate Action Implementation Facility (CAIF), Berlin, Germany

Venn Chesterton,     Innovate UK, London, United Kingdom

Lew Fulton

Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis, United States

Climate Action Implementation Facility (CAIF), Berlin, Germany

Barbara Lah,     Climate Action Implementation Facility (CAIF), Berlin, Germany

Oliver Lah

Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Berlin, Germany

Climate Action Implementation Facility (CAIF), Berlin, Germany

Lefteris Sdoukopoulos,     Centre for Research & Technology - Hellas (CERTH), Hellenic Institute of Transport, Marousi, Greece

Introduction

Transport is a key enabler of economic activity and social connectedness. While providing essential services to society and economy, transport is also an important part of the economy and it is at the core of a number of major sustainability challenges, in particular climate change, air quality, safety, energy security, and efficiency in the use of resources. Setting the transport sector on a low-carbon development pathway is essential for global climate change mitigation efforts that aim to stabilize global warming at 2°C, which is the internationally agreed target under the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Considering that many sustainable transport measures are cost-effective and equally applicable to all countries, in particular fuel-efficient vehicles, but also efficient urban transport, there must be an explanation in the policy selection, design, and implementation that can help explain the differences in countries’ developments in this area. This is where this book aims to add value to the existing body of literature in this area, by disentangling the key trends and drivers for mobility growth, identifying key policies and how they interact, and analyzing the influence of different policy environments and institutional arrangements on the ability of a country to implement sustainable mobility policies. As such, this book aims to provide a perspective on the linkages between policy measures, strategies, and institutional actors.

The book identifies the potential for land transport climate change mitigation actions at the local and national levels, opportunities for synergies of sustainable development and climate change objectives, and governance and institutional issues affecting the implementation of measures. Considering the fact that there is an enormous potential to reduce transport sector greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively and that some countries have shown success in this already, there needs to be an explanation beyond the economic and technical feasibility, there needs to be a political and institutional explanation to the differing progresses of countries in this area. Identifying institutional barriers in the take-up process of low-carbon transport measures is not only relevant for industrialized countries where emissions from this sector need to be reduced drastically and action needs to start now, but is also particularly relevant for emerging economies where rapid growth and infrastructure development can create a lock-in into a high-carbon energy and transport pathway that will make a 1.5°C stabilization scenario very unlikely. The analysis presented in this book explores the policy and governance factors that touch on the relationship between the selection of interventions and institutional aspects that affect the implementation of a comprehensive strategy to decarbonize the transport sector.

With regard to CO2 emissions, transport is the fastest-growing sector in emerging economies and the sector that shows least progress with respect to mitigation in industrialized economies. When looking at the relative success in some countries, for example, in the shift toward renewable energies, it is puzzling to see that the progress of climate change mitigation in the transport sector trails well behind other sectors, in particular electricity. This suggests that a different policy approach is needed for transport that takes into account the complexity of the sector. The analysis of this explores pathways and scenarios for the decarbonization of the transport sector, which helps identifying the main elements of a policy package and implications for a governance approach. The key finding of the chapters presented in this book is that there is a direct link between policy design and institutional structures and that only an integrated policy that combines various local and national policy measures can bring the transport sector on a path toward decarbonization, but also that this policy package approach can help establishing a basis for broad political coalitions (Table 1).

Table 1

This book reflects on the learnings from the SOLUTIONS, FUTURE-RADAR, and Urban Pathways projects, and the Urban Electric Mobility Initiative (UEMI), partnerships that are carried out with a number of international experts and city partners. The editor would like to acknowledge the contribution of all partners and cities involved in these projects (see: www.uemi.net) and the European Commission and the German Federal Ministry for the Environment (BMU), which provided support to these projects.¹

Related Projects

SOLUTIONS: Sharing Opportunities for Low-Carbon Urban Transportation

SOLUTIONS supported the exchange on innovative and green urban mobility solutions between cities from Europe, Asia, Latin America, and the Mediterranean. The project brings together a wealth of experience and technical knowledge from international organizations, consultants, cities, and experts involved in transport issues and solutions. The project’s overall objective is to make a substantial contribution to the uptake of innovative and green urban mobility solutions across the world by facilitating dialogue and exchange, promoting successful policy, providing guidance and tailored advice to city officials, and fostering future cooperation on research, development, and innovation. The SOLUTIONS project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development, and demonstration under grant agreement no. 604714.

FUTURE-RADAR

The Future Research, Advanced Development and Implementation Activities for Road Transport (FUTURE-RADAR) project supports the European Technology Platform ERTRAC (the European Road Transport Research Advisory Council) and the European Green Vehicle Initiative Public–Private Partnership to create and implement the needed research and innovation strategies for a sustainable and competitive European road transport system. Linking all relevant stakeholders, FUTURE-RADAR provides consensus-based plans and roadmaps addressing the key societal, environmental, economic, and technological challenges in areas such as road transport safety, urban mobility, long-distance freight transport, automated road transport, global competitiveness, and all issues related to energy and the environment. FUTURE-RADAR also facilitates exchange between cities in Europa, Asia, and Latin America as part of the UEMI.

Urban Pathways—Supporting Low-Carbon Plans for Urban Basic Services in the Context of the New Urban Agenda

The Urban Pathways project helps delivering on the Paris Agreement and the Nationally Determined Contribution in the context of the New Urban Agenda and the Sustainable Development Goals. The project follows a structured approach to boost low-carbon plans for urban mobility, energy, and waste management services, working on concrete steps towards a maximum impact in cities to global climate change mitigation efforts and sustainable and inclusive urban development www.urban-pathways.org.

Urban Electric Mobility Initiative (UEMI)

The Urban Electric Mobility Initiative (UEMI) was initiated by UN-Habitat and the SOLUTIONS project and launched at the UN Climate Summit in September 2014 in New York. Today UN-Habitat and UEMI partners work with over 20 cities on the implementation of e-mobility solutions that contribute to a mobility system that provides access for all.

As one of the Action Areas of the UN Climate Summit the UEMI aims to boost the share of electric vehicles across all modes and integrate electric mobility into a wider concept of sustainable urban transport that achieves a 30% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in urban areas by 2030. www.uemi.net

¹The projects have received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) and Horizon 2020 under grant agreements no. 604714 (SOLUTONS) and no. 723970 (FUTURE-RADAR). The publication also benefited from analyses carried out as part of the Urban Pathways project funded by the International Climate Initiative (IKI) of the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Germany.

Chapter 1

Trends, Drivers, and Pathways for Sustainable Urban Mobility

Oliver Lah¹,²,    ¹Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Berlin, Germany,    ²Climate Action Implementation Facility (CAIF), Berlin, Germany

Abstract

Transport plays a key role in delivering on the Paris Agreement, the sustainable development goals, and the New Urban Agenda. While providing essential services to society and economy, transport is also an important part of the economy and it is at the core of a number of major sustainability challenges, in particular climate change, air quality, safety, energy security, and efficiency in the use of resources. This book identifies the linkages between decarbonization pathways, policy design, coalition building, and institutional frameworks. The analysis shows that there are critical interlinkages between these aspects:

• Decarbonization of the transport sector is not possible through isolated measures. A broad range of local and national actions are needed to bring the sectors on to a low-carbon development path.

• A holistic policy approach is needed to deliver on wider sustainable development objectives. Addressing a broader range of policy objectives can help forming coalitions and consensus among key political and societal actors.

• Consensus-oriented institutions are needed to maintain a stable policy environment that enables the long-term transitions towards a low-carbon development path.

Keywords

Decarbonisation; transport policy; governance; integration

Outline

Introduction 1

Trends, Drivers, and Pathways 2

Potential for Cobenefits 5

Coalitions and Institutions 9

Toward an Integrated Policy and Governance Framework for the Decarbonization of the Transport Sector 13

References 18

Further Reading 22

Introduction

Transport is a highly complex sector and policy interventions in this sector can have unintended consequences, positive and negative, as they rarely only affect one objective, for example, air quality measures may affect fuel efficiency negatively or biofuels may have land-use change implications. Linking and packaging policies is therefore vital to generate synergies and cobenefits between measures. This provides a basis for coalitions that can align different veto players. While some analysis on policy integration has been carried out, e.g., Justen et al. (2014) and Givoni (2014), the linkages between policy packaging, cobenefits, and coalitions can be summarized in three aspects:

Trends, drivers and pathways: What are the key trends and drivers in the transport sector, what is the greenhouse gas emission reduction potential, and how can mitigation pathways contribute to sustainable development as a lever for broad coalitions?

Potential for cobenefits: What policies are needed to achieve a sustainable, low-carbon pathway for transport, what barriers have to be overcome and how would an integrated policy strategy need to be designed to provide a basis for political coalitions?

Coalitions and institutions: What institutional framework creates sufficient political stability and continuity to foster the take-up of and long-term support for sustainable transport strategies?

Trends, Drivers, and Pathways

Scenarios can play an important role in climate change relevant assessment, they can guide and inform policy decisions, and provide indications of potential impacts of actions or the lack thereof (van Vuuren et al., 2012). The policy relevance of scenarios can vary greatly, which heavily depends on the design of the analysis, the assumptions, context, and presentation of the scenarios (Garb et al., 2008). Moving from abstract scenarios to concrete cases in a specific area can make quantitative research policy relevant and can guide the development and implementation of policy (Elmore, 1979). Hence, not only the data and analysis are relevant for the development of decarbonization scenarios, but also the framing and the presentation considerably affect the policy relevant to the scenarios and pathways derived from them (Berkhout et al., 2002). This is where this book aims to make a contribution to the current body of literature, by identifying policy drivers in key emerging economies and developing policy-relevant scenarios that highlight the different policy options to decarbonize the transport sector and their interactions.

The transport sector is currently on track to continue to stay at current levels of greenhouse gas emissions even under very optimistic scenarios (Fulton et al., 2013; Harvey, 2013). Growth in demand for mobility outpaces efficiency gains. Even when taking into consideration a substantial take-up of more efficient vehicle technology and some modal shifts, transport CO2 emissions in 2050 will still be at 2015 levels of around 7.5 Giga-tonnes of CO2 (ITF, 2009). If, however, there are no changes to current trends, transport sector greenhouse gas emissions are set to double by 2050 (IPCC, 2014). Setting the transport sector on a low-carbon development pathway is essential for global climate change mitigation efforts that aim to stabilize global warming at well below 2°C, which is the internationally agreed target under the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Change (UNFCCC). To contribute to this target developed countries will have to rapidly decarbonize their transport sector over the coming decades (–80% by 2050) and developing and emerging countries will have to curb growth (+70% by 2050), which will require substantial policy action.

The analysis of policy actions in key industrialized and emerging economies carried out as part of the EU-funded SOLUTIONS project (www.uemi.org) shows that there is a substantial gap between the mitigation action needed and the proposed policy actions by countries (Yang et al., 2017). The analysis shows that urban passenger transport and surface freight transport need to play a major role in decarbonizing the sector, both in managing growth in emerging economies and drastically reducing emissions in industrialized economies, even more so when aiming for a 1.5°C stabilization pathway. Integrated assessment models underestimate the role of modal shifts and changing travel patterns and their role to achieve wider sustainable development objectives along with the ability of a broader policy approach to potentially support coalition building of policy actors that represent these objectives (van Vuuren et al., 2015; Edelenbosch et al., 2017; Roelfsema et al., 2018).

Urban passenger transport also plays a particularly important role in providing access to urban services, economic opportunities, and social participation (Bibas et al., 2015; Admasu et al., 2016; Angel and Blei, 2016). Car, but also bus, travel is projected to increase rapidly in developing and emerging economies. This reflects the growing travel demand in developing economies, which is a vital component of economic development (Berry et al., 2016; Gschwender et al., 2016; Spyra and Salmhofer, 2016).

Several international assessments have analyzed the technological potential and effort required to decarbonize the transport sector (IPCC, 2014; Dessens et al., 2016; Figueroa Meza et al., 2014; Fulton et al., 2013). These analyses show that, moving on to a stabilization pathway that is consistent with global climate change targets, transport needs to decarbonize substantially over the coming decades and almost entirely in industrialized countries by the middle of this century (IEA, 2009; ITF, 2009). Taking this path will unlock direct and indirect benefits that outweigh the costs, with savings of between USD 50 and 100 trillion in fuel savings, reduced vehicle purchases, needed infrastructure, and fuel costs (IEA, 2012b). The additional cobenefits and synergies generated by sustainable mobility, such as improved safety and air quality and reduced travel time make an even stronger case for the shift towards low-carbon transport, which is the guiding framework for the scenarios developed for this book. The contribution of countries to the global decarbonization efforts of the (land) transport sector is reflected in the scenarios that show travel demand, technology deployment, and policy interventions and their effect on different scenarios.

From a climate change perspective vehicle technology and fuel switch options provide the biggest mitigation potential (Kahn Ribeiro Suzanna and Figueroa, 2012), but this does not fully reflect a broader sustainable mobility perspective. A broader multimodal approach that manages growth in travel demand and modal split may yield important benefits in air quality, traffic congestion, safety, and overall societal mobility may trigger substantially higher socioeconomic cobenefits and may also be more cost-effective (van Vuuren et al., 2015).

The mitigation potential of a number of transport sector mitigation measures has been well-established, e.g., shift to public and nonmotorized transport and efficiency improvements of internal combustion engines (Sims et al., 2014; Kok et al., 2011; Wright and Fulton, 2005; Macchion et al., 2015). However, a more integrated view that combines technology shift potential in a balanced perspective to the wider sustainable (urban) development approach of low-carbon mobility options still needs further research (Saujot and Lefèvre, 2016; Creutzig, 2016).

Only a few high-level climate change mitigation potential assessments manage to show the relationship between the fuels, and technology elements and planning, and model shift aspects of decarbonization pathways for transport (Sims et al., 2014; Figueroa Meza et al., 2014; Fulton et al., 2013). There are a number of case studies that provide indications on the individual costs and benefits of specific measures (Doll and Jansson, 2005; Creutzig and He, 2009; Pathak and Shukla, 2016; Jacoby and Minten, 2009).

The main message from decarbonization scenarios is that light-duty vehicle (LDV) travel will need to change rapidly in industrialized countries and shift towards more efficient vehicle technologies and more efficient modes of transport. In industrialized economies a reduction of car travel of between 4% and 37% combined with an average vehicle fuel efficiency (reduction in energy/km) of between 45% and 56% would be required to achieve the desired reduction of 73%–80% to be roughly in line with an emission reduction pathway for a 2°C stabilization scenario as suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IEA, 2012a; Fulton et al., 2013). In developing and emerging countries, light-vehicle travel per capita still has potential to grow, even under a low-carbon development scenario by around 130%–350%, if accompanied by fuel efficiency and carbon intensity gains of 40%–50% (IEA, 2012a; Fulton et al., 2013).

One vital aspect of this book is the factor policy integration, which is needed to achieve sustainable development goals and global climate change goals. This has been tested in scenarios and pathways specifically developed for this book. The quantitative analysis carried out for this book builds on the International Energy Agency’s data and develops sensitivity cases to highlight the role of an integrated policy approach in the transport sector (IEA, 2012a,b; Fulton et al., 2009).

Potential for Cobenefits

It is often claimed that transport is one of the hardest sector to decarbonize (Vale, 2016; Cai et al., 2015; van Vuuren et al., 2015). This view is challenged by a number of more recent chapters, which show that an integrated policy approach can create cobenefits with other key policy objectives, such as health, productivity, energy security, and safety, which can lead to a maximum of socioeconomic benefits (Bollen, 2015; Dhar and Shukla, 2015; Lah, 2015; Schwanitz et al., 2015; Dhar et al., 2017). These synergies between policy objectives have the potential to incorporate the positions of relevant veto players, which can help in forming coalitions to support policy implementation, which is often neglected in studies on the decarbonization potential of the sector.

If applied in isolation, policy measures are unlikely to achieve goals without generating tradeoffs that create a risk of a veto player blocking the implementation process. For example, increased fuel taxes, without the provision of modal alternatives and measures to ensure a supply of efficient vehicles, would impact negatively on mobility and transport affordability (Greene et al., 2005; Sterner, 2007), which would result in relevant veto players blocking this initiative. However, a balanced and integrated policy approach combines measures such as vehicle efficiency standards, fuel tax, differentiated vehicle taxes, with the provision of modal choices and compact city design, has the potential of addressing policy objectives that can ensure relevant veto players support the implementation.

Several chapters assess the emission reduction potential of measures but fall short of identifying its relevance. The potential for synergies and cobenefits generated by an integrated policy approach and the link to potential coalitions among key veto players is considered to be a vital link between policy design and political institutions that is often neglected. Table 1.1 provides an overview of the required policy interventions and their potential impact and cobenefits, which gives a first indication of the key policy actors involved and with that the potential veto players (Lah, 2017a).

Table 1.1

Adapted and expanded from IPCC, 2014. Climate Change 2014 – Mitigation O Climate Change, 5th Assessment Report. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; Figueroa Meza, M.J., Lah, O., Fulton, L.M., McKinnon, A.C., Tiwari, G., 2014. Energy for transport. Ann. Rev. Environ. Resour. 39 (1); Lah, O., 2017a. Continuity and change: dealing with political volatility to advance climate change mitigation strategies—examples from the transport sector. Sustainability 9 (6). https://doi.org/10.3390/su9060959.

The initial screening of policies serves as a starting point for identifying critical stakeholders at the national level. Stakeholders are individuals or groups who are seriously affected by a policy or who have the means to influence the implementation of the objectives of a project. Stakeholders can either be potential supporters and potential opponents, who can stop your project or critical components of it.

The mapping of stakeholders is a stage for the selection of key partners in the policy development and implementation phase. Before getting into contact with stakeholders it is important to have an understanding of their potential role, their interests, and their influence. This comprises their red lines in terms of objectives, targets, or types of measures (e.g., scepticism against regulation, or increasing taxes). For the preparation of the stakeholder involvement, it is essential to make sure you have a good idea about your objectives, your bargaining position, and what you want to reach (minimum outcome): what is your non-negotiable core, what is your negotiation space, etc.

Decision making on urban mobility and infrastructure investments is as complex as cities themselves. Rarely will a single measure at the local or national level achieve comprehensive climate change impacts and also generate economic, social, and environmental benefits without creating tradeoffs. Many policy and planning decisions have synergistic effects, meaning that their impacts are larger if implemented together. It is therefore generally best to implement and evaluate integrated programs rather than individual strategies. For example, by itself improvements to public transport services may only cause minimal reductions in individual motorized travel, and associated benefits such as congestion reductions, consumer savings, and reduced pollution emissions. However, the same measure may prove very effective and beneficial if implemented with complementary incentives, such as efficient road and parking pricing, so that travelers have an incentive to shift away from individual car travel (Lah, 2015). In fact, the most effective programs tend to include a combination of qualitative improvements to alternative modes (walking, cycling, ridesharing, and public transit services), incentives to discourage carbon-intensive modes (e.g., by efficient road, parking, and fuel pricing; marketing programs for mobility management and the reduction of commuting trips; road space reallocation to favor resource-efficient modes), plus integrated transport planning and land use development, which creates more compact, mixed, and better-connected communities with less need to travel. Hence, a vital benefit of the combination of measures is the ability of integrated packages to deliver synergies and minimize rebound effects.

When pursuing sustainable urban mobility actions it is important to ensure that veto players are identified early on in the policy process as they are political actors who have a distinctive institutional role in the policy process and have the legal power to put a hold to an initiative. Typical veto players are finance ministries and parliaments with legislative prerogatives. This is a substantially different role from stakeholders, who have a vested interested in a particular policy process, but do not have the (legal) power to stop it. However, both groups need to be involved in the process to successfully implement a measure. Public participation can help ensuring durability and support beyond political parties. There is a causal relationship between policy objectives, agenda setting, institutional structures, and policy outcomes (Tsebelis and Garrett, 1996; Lijphard, 1984). The synergies explored in this chapter provide a basis for the inclusion of veto players into the policy process, which is vital for the uptake of sustainable mobility policies. Table 1.2 aims to apply the veto players’ approach to coalition formation to identify the links between policy objectives and policy actors. This aims to highlight that politics and the policy environment play an important role in the uptake of policy measures.

Table 1.2