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Interested Parties Paul Harstad and Mike Kulisheck October 10, 2012 New Poll Shows Carmona Leads Flake in Arizona Senate Race

A survey completed October 9th shows Democrat Richard Carmona leading Republican Congressman Jeff Flake in Arizonas race for an open U.S. Senate seat. Among all likely voters, Carmona leads with 47% to Flakes 43%. Among the 90% of voters who say they will definitely vote, Carmona leads by 48% to 43% over Flake. This surveys sample is actually more Republican than Arizonas electorate of active voters. The Secretary of State shows 36% registered Republicans versus 30% registered Democrats (+6% Republican). Our survey sample has 39% registered Republicans versus 30% registered Democrats (+9% Republican). Carmona performs much better among Democrats (ahead 84% to 7%) than Flake does among Republicans (leading 73% to 17%). Importantly, Carmona enjoys a 51% to 38% lead among registered Independents. Former Surgeon General Carmona also has somewhat more room for growth in support, given that Congressman Flake is better known (recognized by 74% of voters) than is Carmona (recognized by 63%). Also, Richard Carmona is notably more popular (39% favorable, 24% unfavorable) than is Jeff Flake (36% favorable, 38% unfavorable). With just four weeks before Election Day and early voting about to start, Carmonas momentum and room for growth along with voters increasing doubts about Flakes record bode well for an upset in Arizonas Senate election this November.

The Arizona survey was conducted by Harstad Strategic Research among a cross-section of 602 likely voters by live telephone calls from October 7 to 9, 2012. The trial heat results cited above were asked near the start of the survey, after only standard questions such as party preference and candidate popularity. The results are subject to a statistical margin-of-error of plus-or-minus 4.0%. Based in Colorado, Harstad Research is the pollster for five U.S. Senators.