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, ,
Bloomberg HSBK LI (), KKB LI ()

KASE HSBK KZ, KKGB KZ, CCBN KZ

25 2012

Its a Long Way to Tipperary, Baby


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HSBK

KKGB

CCBN

(. )

419.5

141.8

272

HSBK

KKGB

CCBN

32.2

ROE

5.63%

16.12%

3.57%

182

198

ROA

0.29%

0.96%

2.20%

314

542

259

30.8%

10.4%

3.8%

15%

198%

31%

BVPS (KZT)

211.9

497.9

435.9

P / E (x)

8.4

5.7

6.8

37 %

46%

23 %

P / B (x)

1.3

0.4

0.5

Free Float
HSBK KZ, KKGB KZ, CCBN KZ
HSBK KZ

HSBK KZ, KKGB KZ, CCBN KZ vs.KASE Index


CCBN KZ

KASE INDEX

KKGB KZ

350

120%

330

110%

310

CCBN KZ

HSBK KZ

100%

290
270

90%

250

80%

230

70%

210

60%

190
170
-11

KKGB KZ

-12

-12

-12

-12

50%
-11

-12

-12

-12

-12

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


1 2012 13 275,1
. , 1 2012 457,2 . (+ 3,6%).
11 010 . , 1 944,6 .
(+21,44%), , , 2008
6%.
2012
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, .
1. (. )

3,0

KKB
KKB

HSBK
HSBK

CCBN
CCBN

2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
2008

2009

2010

2011

12012

: ,

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( 2 3). , 2011
30.7 . -
. ROE 2008
. 2007 12012 ROA,
, 5%.
2.

50%

KKB

HSBK

CCBN

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20%
5%
-10%

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-08

-09

-10

-11

-12

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-40%
: , ,

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

3.

18%

KKB

HSBK

CCBN

13%
8%
3%
-2%

-07

-08

-09

-10

-11

-12

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-27%
: , ,

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( 4), , 80%
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52%.
4. 2011
HSBK

CCBN

KKB

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1 400 000

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HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

, 2008, ,

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( 5).
2011
( 6). 24%,
22% .
5. /
KKB LI

HSBK LI

CCBN KZ

30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

: ,

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), 90 23%,
.
6. ,
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35%
24%

23%
19%
12%

34%

32%

29%
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90

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)
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147%. 2008

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

.
( 152% 2008 ),
.

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2007 95%,
(12012 - 124%). , ,
100%.
7. /
KKB

HSBK

CCBN

280%
240%
200%
160%
120%
80%
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

1H2012

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HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


1:
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2007

2008

2009

2010

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12

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178

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2008

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112

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145

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123

136

172

164

162

161

191

281

318

310

308

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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64%

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37%

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130%

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2008

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/

69%

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31%

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20%

24%

31%

31%

65%

92%

53%

45%

30%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

ROE

25%

8%

6%

11%

13%

16%

ROA

4%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

9,91

8,64

7,20

6,60

7,33

8,37

31%

8%

8%

20%

24%

31%

8%

12%

10%

9%

7%

6%

38%

11%

10%

25%

32%

42%

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

2012 12012.
50% (31.6. ), - 13.5% (2.6. ),
0.1% 1.8 . .
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8.

2011

2010
16%

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HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

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9.
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31%

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23%
21%

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2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

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12012

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2 2012
,
15% 50% . 2012
60 . , 7 23
,
(25.10.2012) 2,6-8,6%.
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HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


. DCF
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2014

2015

2016

2017

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10,62%

453 250

500 716

547 054

9,98%

9,36%

37 059

40 631

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HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


4.
/ ( )

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

317

381

373

292

247

236

170

181

180

152

134

119

147

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193

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281

318

310

308

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

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2%

30%

9%

30%

18%

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129%

36%

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-19%

3%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

/
. /

79%
19%

82%
16%

83%
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81%
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18%

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48%

75%

100%

68%

58%

71%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

ROE

22%

6%

5%

5%

5%

5%

ROA

2%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

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5%

10

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

, , 2008
, .
2011
28% 43% ( 10), , 50%
2008 .
10.

13%

22%

11%

19%

6%

2011

6%

2010

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41% 2006 -9% 2008
2% ( 11,12).
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2,5

2,4

2007

2008

2,7

2,7

2,7

2,8

2009

2010

2011

12012

1,8

0,8
0,5
0,3

2003

2004

2005

2006

: ,

1 2012 Standard & Poor's (S&P)


.
19 2012 Moody's Investors Service
.
B2 Ba3;
Caa1 B2; - Caa2

11

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

B3. ,
.
12.
130%

75%
62%
47%

41%

-9%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

1%

1%

-4%

2009

2010

2011

2%

12012

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2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

14%

2009

17%

2010

14%

2011

12%

12

: ,

12

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

. , ,
. ,
9,8%,
- 0.73.

542 .
, ,
.
5.
112

2013

436 632

461 197

486 089

512 726

541 164

571 544

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9,66%

9,39%

9,07%

8,70%

8,75%

42750

44 549

45 654

46 523

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50 010

beta

0,73

0,78

0,84

0,89

0,95

1,00

10- . .

5,6%

5,6%

5,6%

5,6%

5,6%

5,6%

CDS

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

3,9%

3,7%

3,5%

3,3%

3,2%

3,0%

5,8%

5,4%

4,9%

4,5%

4,0%

4,0%

2014

2015

2016

2017

ROE

5,63%

5,70%

5,78%

5,85%

5,93%

6,00%

24 565

24 892

26 637

28 438

303 80

32 470

-18 185

-19 657

-19 017

-18 085

-167 23

-17 540

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,31

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(. )

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PV . (. )

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PV . (. )

122 786

(. )

488 804

(. )

902

()

542

: ,

13

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


7.
/ ( )

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

96,6

114,3

111,6

94,8

87,6

82,5

53,3

69,3

75,3

80,0

62,1

66,3

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19,7

32,9

38,5

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19,9

24,8

21,2

25,1

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24,8

38,9

36,4

39,6

-6,6

28,4

28,4

19,3

7,2

7,7

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3,2

3,5

-3,2

-1,3

-4,2

0,3

0,1

0,6

19,7

12,5

19,6

-30,4

2,6

4,8

( )

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

112

43

24

245

209

149

146

626

601

666

699

765

781

30

46

67

106

125

130

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53

53

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70

70

36

41

44

14

16

17

73

95

98

85

87

88

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

97%

18%

-2%

-15%

-8%

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66%

-37%

57%

-255%

-109%

84%

60%

-64%

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n/a

n/a

-5%

54%

7%

23%

6%

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0%

55%

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11%

5%

9%

2%

41%

36%

58%

18%

-9%

1%

117%

-7%

-86%

-791%

-130%

65%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

71%

64%

57%

57%

71%

72%

. /

20%

25%

36%

26%

24%

22%

36%

45%

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67%

68%

209%

152%

108%

101%

122%

124%

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13%

14%

14%

. / .

17%

5%

3%

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4%

4%

37%

44%

91%

261%

72%

96%

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

ROE

34%

7%

4%

-38%

3%

4%

ROA

3%

1%

0%

-3%

0%

0%

. . / .
/

12,1

10

11,9

14,4

12,5

12,3

17%

5%

3%

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4%

4%

17%

13%

12%

8%

7%

8%

20%

11%

18%

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3%

6%

14

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

()
12012, 1,079 . (-0,3%),
0,99 . (-0,4%), 1,04 . (-14,64%).
6 2012
24% 22% ( 14). (24% 3 ), ,
10 (20% 2007 ).
14. /

36%
34%

34%

31%

27%

26%
25%

24%

23%

22%
20%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

12

: ,

12012 2,1% - 780,7 . ,


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,
10% 2011 ( 15,16).
,
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15. 2010 2011

18%

17%

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28%
5%
4%

2010

4%
5%

2011

5%

6%
5%

18%

5%

17%

: ,

15

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

16. 2010 2011


2011

2010

1%

2%
19%

20%
29%

26%
51%

52%

: ,

2011
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- ( 30%).
2008 ( 4,5% ),
,
, .
17.
2011

2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

: ,

19 2012 Fitch Ratings


'B' 'B+'.
,
, Kookmin Bank ("",
""),

16

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

2009 12012
( 18,19).
2010 24%. , ,
,
.
18. (. )
0,8
0,7

0,7

0,7

2011

12012

0,4
0,3
0,2
0,0
2003

0,1

2004

0,1

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

: ,

19.
128%
94%
75%
55%

48%

11%
-4%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

5%

9%

2010

2011

2%

12012

: ,

16 2012 145 .
2014 8,63% .
144,68 . 104,25%
(1,043 . ).
, 332,5 . ,
,
.
. ,
, : 3.87%,
- 5.75% - -1.2. ,

17

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012

, 2017 ,
.
12 4%, 2017
6%.

254 , PBV 0.6.
2012 ,
,
.
8.
112

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

86 808

89 946

93 572

97 875

102 921

108 794

Ke

12,52%

12,01%

11,51%

11,00%

10,50%

8,75%

10 866

10 805

10 769

10 770

10 807

9 519

1,20

1,15

1,10

1,05

1,00

1,00

5,62%

5,62%

5,62%

5,62%

5,62%

5,62%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

1,8%

3,87%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

5,75%

5,75%

5,75%

5,75%

5,75%

4,00%

4%

4%

5%

5%

6%

6%

3 138

3 626

4 304

5 046

5 873

6 175

-7 728

-7 179

-6 465

-5 725

-4 934

-3 344

1,00

1,12

1,25

1,39

1,53

1,67

-7 728

-6 409

-5 176

-4 129

-3 221

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beta
10- . .
CDS

ROE

Ke
PV

: ,

9.
(. )

86 808

PV . (. )

-28 670

PV . (. )

-6 818

(. )

51 320

(. )

202

()

254

: ,

18

HSBK, KKGB, CCBN

18 2012


:
: . - 13, - , 1 - 1
: +7 727 311 56 08
: +7 727 311 56 09
: www.ifg-continent.kz
E-mail: info@ifg-continent.kz
Bloomberg: IFGK

erlan.a@ifg-continent.kz
shaimerden.a@ifg-continent.kz
indira.ye@ifg-continent.kz

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