Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
12,000
Other mining
10,000
Diamond mining
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
5.1%
3.1%
4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10
SHG zinc Other minerals Blister copper Metal ores (including uranium) Rough diamonds
Mining Employment (Chamber Class A, B and C members including NCS and NIMT)
16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1990 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 2000 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11
AREVA DBMN Namdeb Langer Heinrich Navachab NCS Ohorongo Okorusu Rosh Pinah Rossing Uranium Salt & Chemicals Salt Company Samicor Skorpion Weatherly Mining Auryx Gold Bannerman Craton Gecko Otjozondu Reptile Uranium Rio Tinto Swakop Uranium Valencia NIMT
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Source: Rio Tinto, Paladin Energy
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
19,451
25,000
3,258
2,993
2,500
1,537
2006/07 Policy Potential Namibia South Africa Botswana Mineral Potential Namibia South Africa Botswana Jurisdictions
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
n/a 53 38
n/a 57 32 65
33 50 11
12 45 14 68
34 49 18
40 44 17 71
37 61 21
24 45 7 72
30 67 14
29 66 7 79
45 54 17
44 62 1 93
Two quotes relating to Namibia: From Hero to Zero in one simple step. Heres how: Take a country up there with Botswana in the lets encourage foreign investment stakes, throw in some ill-considered ministerial comments, a poorly planned state mining company, define many common minerals as strategic, moot a change in the laws, and heypresto! You end up on the same level as Zimbabwe! When will politicians ever learn? Win-win means just that. An exploration company, company president. South Africa will be in the regulatory spotlight again next year owing to the nationalization debate, Zimbabwe over indigenization, and Namibia in relation to its restrictions on the export of strategic minerals. Law firm, partner and practice head.
16
Conclusions
Mining sector emerged well from crisis with most main projects intact (uranium delicately poised) Easily most dynamic sector of economy investing more than any other sector Attracting full spectrum of international investors Junior miners and stock exchanges playing critical role Investors highly sensitive to Namibian policy pronouncements Mining to face new taxes, environmental regulations, NEEEF, NT Levy, power and water costs
Robin Sherbourne
Namibian Economics robin@namibianeconomics.com PO Box 86058 Windhoek Namibia