CASE STUDY

Ajay Gupta

BOSTONS BIG DIG

Engineering Cost Estimation Techniques.
EMGT - 709

Big Dig: Project Summary

Demolition of Existing Central Artery and Replace it with 3.5 Mile underground tunnel.

Ted Williams Tunnel: Connects I-90, I-93, and Logan International Airport. Leonard P. Zakim Bunker Hill Bridge: I-93 Bridge over the Charles River.
Rose Kennedy Greenway in the space vacated by the previous I-93 elevated roadway.

B A E F F T O E R E R

Central Artery Before and after

Before: 2003

After: 2005

Why Big Dig ?

1959

Early 1990

Funding Sources
Federal
Interstate Highway Program
Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA) National Economic Crossroads Transportation Efficiency Act (NEXTEA)

Transportation Efficiency Act (TEA) - 21

Big Dig
Mass. Highway Dept. formerly (Mass. Dept. of Public Works) Mass. Transportation Authority Mass. Turnpike Authority Mass. Port Authority State Bonds (Issuing authority unknown)

State

In 2003 Dollars Original Cost Estimate: 1982 Dollars Project Features: New Charles River Crossing Estimated cost $2.5 Billion Actual Cost $8.08 Billion Actual Cost $14.6 Billion Completion 1998 Completed Date: - 2007 Joint Venture Contract

Right of Way/ S. Boston

Extend I-93 South Tunnel Covers Utilities Relocation Workmens Compensation

Source: Final Environmental Impact Statement,1985

Other

Cost Estimation Revision 1

Revise Cost Estimates in 1992 Dollars Original Estimate Features Added I-90 and I-93 HOV Lanes South Boston Haul Road $2,564 $471

Material disposal/ hazardous materials

Deleted interchange Other Scope change to existing project features $2,151 $5,186 $2,553 $7,739

Total In million Dollars Escalation to 1992 Dollars: Subtotal

Cost History in Million Dollars

Chart Title
16,000 14,075 14,475 14,625 14,625

14,000

12,000 10,468 10,000 7,740 6,443 6,000 4,436

10,841

8,000 5,780 3,963 4,317

7,658 5,810

7,886

7,972

8,000

5,193 3,409
3,708

5,187

5,597

4,000
2,564 2,564

3,175 3,175

2,000

0 1985 EIS 1987 ICE 1989 ICE 1991 ICE 1991 APF 1992 APF 1992 APF w/ NCRC 1994 CSU6 w/ Inflation 1994 CSU6 1997 Rebaseline 2000 CSU7 2001 CSU8 2002 CSU8 2002 CSU9

2003 Dollars

1982 Dollars

Source: Completing the Big Dig: Managing the Final Stages of Bostons Central Artery/Tunnel Project (2003).

Project Escalation: 7 years behind schedule

2002 PMS REV. 9 2001 PMS REV. 8 2000 PMS REV. 7 1994 PMS REV. 6 1993 PMS REV. 5 1992 PMS REV. 4 1991 PMS REV. 3 1990 PMS REV. 2 1989 PMS REV. 1 1994 1996 2001 2005

2004
2004 2004 2004

1998
1998 1998 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Source: Completing the Big Dig: Managing the Final Stages of Bostons Central Artery/Tunnel Project (2003).

Reasons For the Cost Growth

Mitigation

Scope Growth
15%

55%

Accounting Changes Traffic

8% 7% 5% 5% 2% 3%

Schedule Maintenance Contigency for Unknowns Other Inflation

Source: Completing the Big Dig: Managing the Final Stages of Bostons Central Artery/Tunnel Project (2003).

Mitigations
Opportunity to turn complaint into benefits
Rats Fish Fire Boats Memorials Parks

Final mitigation costs $3 Billion.

Final number.
$22 billion and wont be paid until 2038.
Including interest on debt. Interim borrowing.

Principal repayment.
Possible future growth of the bottom line for construction and support contracts.

Commonwealths taxpayers and toll payers will foot a bill for the remaining $9 billion over the life of the bonds. This sum is equivalent to $1,500 for each of the Commonwealths six million citizens.

Conclusion
The original estimate was developed in 1982 dollars, without allowance for inflation or mitigation. Mitigation costs are expected to be very high. Requirements for significant mitigation were identified in the original 1985 cost estimates, but the costs were not identified. Other factors that increase costs and delay schedules should and could have been anticipated and addressed through additional planning and design, site analysis, and cost and schedule contingencies. Other Projects could benefit from the lesson learnt from Big Dig.

THANK YOU !