Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
Previsão Da Demanda - Método 2 - Média Móvel Ponderada
Previsão Da Demanda - Método 2 - Média Móvel Ponderada
MS JAN FEV MAR ABR MAI JUN JUL AGO SET OUT NOV DEZ
Xt
1
2
Total
l=2
=
0.6
0.4
1.0
1
2
3
Total
l=3
=
0.5
0.3
0.2
1.0
l=
1 = 0.3
2 = 0.7
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
*
*
*
*
*
*
4
9
8
7
3
2
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
8
7
3
2
6
)
)
)
)
)
)
7.5
8.3
7.3
4.2
2.3
4.8
ERRO
(
(
(
(
(
8
7
3
2
6
7.5
8.3
7.3
4.2
2.3
Total ERRO
)2
2
)
)2
)2
)2
2
= 0.3
= 1.7
= 18.5
= 4.8
= 13.7
= 39.0
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ =
39.0
5
EMQ =
7.8
l=
1 = 0.1
2 = 0.4
3 = 0.5
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
Considerando
CLCULOS
PREVISO
ERRO
EMQ =
(
(
(
(
(
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
*
*
*
*
*
4
9
8
7
3
+
+
+
+
+
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
*
*
*
*
*
9
8
7
3
2
+
+
+
+
+
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
*
*
*
*
*
8
7
3
2
6
)
)
)
)
)
8.0
7.6
5.1
2.9
4.1
(
(
(
(
7
3
2
6
)2
)2
2
)
)2
8.0
7.6
5.1
2.9
Total ERRO
=
=
=
=
=
1.0
21.2
9.6
9.6
41.4
Total ERRO
N
EMQ =
41.4
4
EMQ =
10.3
l=
l=
10
9
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO L=2
39.0
EMQ =
5
EMQ =
7.8
EMQ =
41.4
10.3
DEMANDA
EMQ =
PREVISO L=3
5
4
3
2
1
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
l=
1 = 0.3
2 = 0.7
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
7.5
8.3
7.3
4.2
2.3
4.8
5.3
7.8
4.8
6.5
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
7.5
8.3
7.3
4.2
2.3
4.8
5.3
7.8
4.8
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
Total ERRO2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
0.3
1.7
18.5
4.8
13.7
0.0
13.7
23.0
10.2
86.0
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 86.0
9
EMQ =
9.6
l=
1 = 0.1
2 = 0.4
3 = 0.5
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
Considerando
CLCULOS
ERRO2
PREVISO
EMQ =
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
8.0
7.6
5.1
2.9
4.1
5.1
7.1
5.6
6.1
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
8.0
7.6
5.1
2.9
4.1
5.1
7.1
5.6
Total ERRO2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
1.0
21.2
9.6
9.6
0.8
15.2
16.8
5.8
80.0
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ =
80.0
8
EMQ =
10.0
l=
l=
10
9
86.0
EMQ =
9
EMQ =
9.6
EMQ =
80.0
10.0
DEMANDA
EMQ =
REAL
L=3
L=2
5
4
3
aquela cujo EMQ (Erro Mdio Quadrtico) for o menor dentre os EMQs calculados.
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO L=2
PREVISO L=3
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
10
10
9
8
8
REAL
L=2
L=3
DEMANDA
DEMANDA
5
4
3
REAL
L=3
L=2
4
3
DEMANDA REAL
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO L=2
PREVISO L=2
PREVISO L=3
PREVISO L=3
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ