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Previsão Da Demanda - Método 3 - Suavização Exponencial Simples
Previsão Da Demanda - Método 3 - Suavização Exponencial Simples
MS JAN FEV MAR ABR MAI JUN JUL AGO SET OUT NOV DEZ
Xt
l=2
=
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
0.2
0.8
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
5.0
5.6
5.9
5.3
4.6
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
5.0
5.6
5.9
5.3
4.6
4.9
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
4.0
5.0
5.6
5.9
5.3
4.6
Total ERRO
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
9.0
2.0
8.3
10.9
1.8
57.0
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 57.0
6
EMQ =
9.5
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
0.4
0.6
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
6.0
6.8
6.9
5.3
4.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
6.0
6.8
6.9
5.3
4.0
4.8
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
4.0
6.0
6.8
6.9
5.3
4.0
Total ERRO
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
4.0
0.0
15.1
11.1
4.0
59.2
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 59.2
6
EMQ =
9.9
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
0.6
0.4
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
7.0
7.6
7.2
4.7
3.1
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
7.0
7.6
7.2
4.7
3.1
4.8
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
4.0
7.0
7.6
7.2
4.7
3.1
Total ERRO
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
1.0
0.4
18.0
7.3
8.5
60.1
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 60.1
6
EMQ = 10.0
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
0.8
0.2
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
8.0
8.0
7.2
3.8
2.4
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
8.0
8.0
7.2
3.8
2.4
5.3
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
4.0
8.0
8.0
7.2
3.8
2.4
Total ERRO
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
0.0
1.0
17.6
3.4
13.2
60.2
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 60.2
6
EMQ = 10.0
=
=
=
=
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO (L=2 e =0,2)
0.2
0.4
EMQ =
EMQ =
9.5
9.9
DEMANDA
l=
10
5
4
3
0.6
EMQ =
10.02
2
1
0.8
EMQ =
10.04
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
10
9
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO (L=2 e =0,2)
DEMANDA
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
10
9
8
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO (L=2 e =0,2)
DEMANDA
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
0.2
0.8
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
8.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
5.0
8.8
7.8
6.2
2.8
2.8
5.8
5.8
7.8
4.0
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
4.0
5.0
8.8
7.8
6.2
2.8
2.8
5.8
5.8
7.8
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
Total ERRO2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
9.0
3.2
23.0
17.6
10.2
4.8
10.2
7.8
0.0
111.1
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 111.1
10
EMQ = 11.1
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
0.4
0.6
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
8.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
6.0
8.6
7.6
5.4
2.6
3.6
5.6
6.6
6.6
5.0
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
4.0
6.0
8.6
7.6
5.4
2.6
3.6
5.6
6.6
6.6
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
Total ERRO2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
4.0
2.6
21.2
11.6
11.6
2.0
11.6
13.0
2.0
104.3
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 104.3
10
EMQ = 10.4
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
0.6
0.4
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
8.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
7.0
8.4
7.4
4.6
2.4
4.4
5.4
7.4
5.4
6.0
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
4.0
7.0
8.4
7.4
4.6
2.4
4.4
5.4
7.4
5.4
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
Total ERRO2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
1.0
2.0
19.4
6.8
13.0
0.4
13.0
19.4
6.8
106.5
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 106.5
10
EMQ = 10.6
l=
=
(1 - ) =
MS
Xt
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
4
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
0.8
0.2
Considerando
CLCULOS
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
8.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
ERRO2
PREVISO
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
4.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
3.0
2.0
6.0
5.0
9.0
3.0
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
)
4.0
8.0
8.2
7.2
3.8
2.2
5.2
5.2
8.2
4.2
7.0
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
(
9
8
7
3
2
6
5
9
3
8
4.0
8.0
8.2
7.2
3.8
2.2
5.2
5.2
8.2
4.2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
)2
Total ERRO2
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
25.0
0.0
1.4
17.6
3.2
14.4
0.0
14.4
27.0
14.4
117.7
EMQ =
Total ERRO2
N
EMQ = 117.7
10
EMQ = 11.8
=
=
=
=
9
8
7
0.2
0.4
EMQ =
EMQ =
11.1
10.4
DEMANDA
l=
10
6
5
4
DEMANDA REAL
0.6
EMQ =
10.6
0.8
EMQ =
11.8
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
10
9
8
DEMANDA
6
5
4
DEMANDA REAL
PREVISO (L=2 e =0,2)
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ
10
9
8
DEMANDA
6
5
4
3
DEMANDA REAL
2
PREVISO (L=2 e =0,4)
0
JAN
FEV
MAR
ABR
MAI
JUN
JUL
MESES
AGO
SET
OUT
NOV
DEZ