WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

How will the driverless car impact society and the way people commute? Cristina Bingham National University March 30, 2013

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

How will the driverless car impact society and the way people commute? When picturing an automobile traveling down the road, one image that comes to mind is the driver at the steering wheel. The driver is in charge. The driver is critical. Take away the driver from a moving vehicle, and most would agree: this would cause a catastrophic situation. Or would it? For quite some time, driverless technology has been developed and tested by universities, institutions, and companies. In spite of this, the idea of a car without a driver gives rise to feelings of skepticism and doubt. However, as driverless technology continues to develop and advance, someday people may no longer drive vehicles. With the introduction of the driverless car, how will this impact society and the way people commute? First, in order to answer this question, its important to understand how driverless technology works. Driverless Vehicle Technology Approach any busy highway or intersection, and it is difficult to imagine an unmanned vehicle driving safely past pedestrians and other cars, while navigating through the streets, obeying stop signs, traffic lights, and speed limits. Yet driverless technology makes the unimaginable happen. Recently, according to an article in Automotive News, Google has modified six Toyota Prius cars and one Audi TT, creating a small fleet of driverless prototypes (2011). The report goes on to say that these vehicles have logged thousands of miles in the streets and highways of California, while a monitor rides onboard prepared to override the system at anytime (2011). According to Kathy Sykes, physicist and broadcaster for Google, the prototypes are equipped with a scanner on top of the roof, which measures the distance of surrounding objects (2012). Another system combines GPS technology and lasers on the front bumper and sides, measuring acceleration and rotation (2012). All information retrieved by

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

the lasers and onboard cameras are processed in the vehicles computer system and software (2012). Sykes confirms that the system can make decisions quickly and controls the steering, acceleration, and braking with incredible speed (2012). As this technology progresses, society will someday experience transportation as never seen before. Others are in agreement. According to researchers for the National Research Foundation of Korea, vehicles with autonomous systems will sense their environment and will navigate to its destination without aid from a human (Kim, Yoon, Yu, & Kang, 2012, p. 761). They go on to say that the integrated systems are comprised of navigation technology for position estimation; control technology for adjusting direction and speed; sensing technology, for perceiving the surrounding environment; and cognitive/decision making technology to determine vehicle movement (Kim, Yoon, Yu, & Kang, 2012, p. 761). Through their computer systems, autonomous cars will easily navigate their way through traffic on highways and streets. But the systems within the automobile are just the beginning. Highway and road infrastructure surrounding the driving vehicle will also play a great role. Thomas Frey, futurist speaker for Google, describes our highways of today as dumb surfaces with virtually no data flowing between the vehicles and the road itself (2013, p. 38). But they will become so much more. The roads will talk to cars and vice versa. Frey explains that computers onboard the vehicle will retrieve and send information from the road through cameras and laser sensors, logging information on road conditions as quickly as 10 times per second through transmitters (2013, p. 39). Thus, in time, we will experience our roads and our cars streaming information back and forth, from road to vehicles, vehicles to road.

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

The Benefits of the Driverless Car As driverless cars enter the market, benefits to societys transportation system will soon emerge. Because computer systems have the capability to synchronize, lane sizes will be reduced to nearly the size of cars, while travel speed will increase (Frey, 2012). This will allow for more efficient flow of traffic, eliminating the frustration of gridlock and road congestion. According to Frey, highways will be able to accommodate 10-20 times as many vehicles as they do today (2012, p. 39). Other experts agree. Engineers M.L. Ho, P.T. Chan, and A.B. Rad, experts in lane-change algorithm, share that autonomous vehicles on automated highways are expected to enhance the safety and to improve the highway capacity (2007, pg. 47). Therefore, traffic conditions that once frustrated people will forever be eliminated, making transportation a more relaxed, pleasant, and safe experience. And the importance of safety can never be underestimated. Most automobile accidents are caused by distractions, mistakes, and decisions caused by poor judgment. According Noor & Beikers article (2012), the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) states that 93 percent of the 32,788 traffic fatalities in year 2012 were due to human error (see Figure 1). Distractions such as texting, cell phone calls, conversations, music, or opening a can of soda will momentarily cause a driver to lose concentration during driving. Also, substance abuse and alcohol impairs the drivers cognitive abilities. On the NHTSAs website, the institute reports that in 2010, 31 percent of all fatalities were related to driving under the influence of alcohol (Did You Know Archives, 2010). When considering the these numbers, the autonomous vehicle is viewed as a viable solution which will reduce the number of automobile accidents, save lives, and make highways, roads and streets a safer place to travel through. According to Chunka Mui, contributor for Forbes.com, Google claims their driverless car will reduce traffic

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

accidents by 90 percent (2013, pg.1). Meanwhile, the U.S. Censuss most recent report states that in 2009 there were 10.8 million motor vehicle accidents and 35,900 motor vehicle deaths (Table 1103 Motor Vehicle Accidents, 2012). Based on these figures, there would be on average 9.72 million fewer accidents and 32,320 fewer deaths each year on U.S. roads (see Figures 2 and 3). The autonomous vehicle will therefore usher in a new era of safer commuting and transportation. All potential hazards linked to human error due to hand-held devices, reckless driving, and fatigue- will virtually be eliminated, as computerized vehicles take control of the wheel and transport us to our destination safely and efficiently. Driverless cars may also eliminate the need for people to own vehicles. Because the costs of purchasing and maintaining vehicles are enormous, more people will opt for services to provide their transportation needs. Frey predicts that in the same way people hail a cab, people in the future will use their mobile devices to summon a driverless vehicle whenever they need to travel (2012, pg. 39). Fewer people, therefore, will be purchase cars. Instead they may subscribe to a fleet operating service. Imagine it. Without car ownership, there will be no more DMV lines to stand in, expensive car registration fees, costly auto insurance premiums, inconvenient car repairs, and failed smog tests to reckon with. Even though pride of ownership has been a great part of societys culture, this may fade in time when more people decide the expenses and liabilities are not worth the price of vehicle title. With fewer people purchasing cars, the auto industry will have to reexamine their own marketing strategies. Automobiles will be designed with the rider in mind, instead of the driver. Ahmed Noor and Sven Baker, mechanical engineers, predict that the vehicle platform may evolve, with the steering wheel, brake and accelerator pedal disappearing, and the interior modified to facilitate nondriving activities (2012, pg. 36). With this new design and concept,

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

more people will be able to spend their commuting hours taking care of personal needs, such as answering cell phone calls or resting. Fey even goes as far to say that there will be on-board movie, music, and massage interfaces built into the driverless car (2012, pg. 40). He explains more people will carpool, as fleet operations will pair up socially compatible riders in a way to maximize the conversation benefits of like-minded individuals (2012). In contrast, people may opt for alone time during their commute and choose a Zen-like experience in order to relax (2012). With the autonomous car design moving away from drivers preferences and toward the riders, new concepts will emerge that will allow people to once again claim precious and valuable time once lost to daily driving and commuting. Other people, such as the elderly and the blind will be able to go places without depending on others. Driverless technology will make it possible for a larger spectrum of societys population to travel and commute freely and independently. Potential Backlashes and Government Approval The driverless car appears to be a solution to many troubling issues related to transportation. But integrating the driverless vehicle into society will not be easy. First, jobs will be affected. In the future, many different occupations could be eliminated. According to Frey, truck drivers, taxi drivers, bus drivers, parking lot attendants, ambulance drivers could potentially be replaced by autonomous vehicles in a highly sophisticated, integrated driverless world. Special interest groups may lobby against driverless vehicle legislation in order to protect various professions and occupations from possible unemployment. Also, not all traffic accidents and fatalities will be eliminated 100 percent. This asks who is liable when an automobile accident occurs? For example, a driverless vehicle may fail to detect a tree and subsequently run into it. A hacker may successfully invade computer system

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

software and cause a terrible pileup at an intersection. Obviously automobile manufacturers want to protect their assets and reputation; therefore, clear definitions, laws, and guidelines must be established. Noor and Beiker explain that standards are needed to identify the responsibility of the vehicles manufacturer, service provider, operator, and other traffic participants, as well as the role of insurance (2012, pg. 36). As a start, certain state governments, such as Nevada and California, have already implemented driverless technology laws. Apparently, Google is among the first to petition the government for legislation. According to Amir Efrati, a writer for the Wall Street Journal, Google has spend about $9 million in 2011 and $9.68 million in 2012 lobbying lawmakers and officials in Washington (2012). Google has also approached state officials in Nevada and California. As a result, both states passed laws that legalize driverless vehicles on the public roads and highways (2012). In addition, Claire Miller, a writer for the New York Times, announced Florida has also legalized the driverless car (2012). But with these new laws come other concerns. Amir quotes Dan Gage, a spokesperson for the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, as stating the California legislation would allow companies and individuals to modify existing vehicles with self-driving technology that could be faulty, and that automakers wouldnt be legally protected from resulting lawsuits (2012, pg. B1). Gages concern over Californias new driverless law is that anyone may freely modify existing vehicles into autonomous vehicles. He goes further on to explain that they are not all Google (2012, pg. B1). Here he is emphasizing that it is unlikely other companies and individuals are able to meet the same high-tech quality and standards found in Googles patented research and design. According to Kim, Yoon, Yu, and Kang, Googles Velodyne 3D laser is a highly developed system that uses a 360 degree rotation in order to detect obstacles (Kim, Yoon, Yu, Kang, 2012, pg. 762). This is perhaps the best R&D developed on

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

driverless technology currently available and qualified enough to be driven in public. Despite the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers concern, the law was passed, as Google stressed that lives would be saved (2012). If the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers claims over recent driverless technology legislation is accurate, then the law should include provisions which allow only government-approved, patented technology before any driverless model is allowed to enter public roads. Obviously, driverless technology is in its infancy, and it will take time before government and research will fully come to mutual assent for the good of society. Conclusion Eliminate the driver, and society will have safer, more efficient highways and fewer accidents. Take away the steering wheel, and automobile manufacturers will design vehicles to accommodate only the rider. Remove the brake and accelerator, and billions of dollars will be saved annually in fuel costs. Driverless technology is paving the way for societys future transportation system. Though it may seem impossible right now, technology never fails to amaze us. When considering companies are pouring billions of dollars into research and design, while petitioning governments for approval, it is only a matter of time when we discover driverless technology has conveniently arrived at our doorstep, ready to take us to any destination we choose.

WILL DRIVERLESS CARS IMPACT SOCIETY AND THE WAY PEOPLE COMMUTE

References Efrati, A. (2012). Googles Driverless Car Draws Political Power Net Giant Hones Lobbying Skills in State Capitals; Providing Test Drives to Legislators. Wall Street Journal. B1. Retrieved from: http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.nu.edu/docview/1095794596

Frey, T. (2012). Driverless Highways: Creating Cars that Talk to the Roads. Journal of Environmental Health, 75(5), 38-40. Retrieved from: http://ezproxy.nu.edu/login?url=http://search.proquest.com/docview/1173767718?accoun tid=25320 Google Seeks Nevadas OK to Test Driverless Cars. (2011). Automotive News, 85(6464), 38. Retrieved from: http://www.lexisnexis.com.ezproxy.nu.edu/hottopics/lnacademic/?verb=sr&csi=6928&sr =HLEAD(Google+seeks+Nevada%27s+OK+to+test+driverless+cars.)+and+date+is+Ma y+16%2C+2011

Kim, J., Yoon, Y., Yu, S., & Kang, D. (2012). Real-Time 2D Height Mapping Method for an Unmanned Vehicle using a Stereo Camera and Laser Fusion. International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems 10(4), 761-771. Doi: 10.1007/s12555-012-0412-7. Retrieved from: http://download.springer.com.ezproxy.nu.edu/static/pdf/758/art%253A10.1007%252Fs12 555-012-04127.pdf?auth66=1364867033_9e5a78f68f92e8e67c486b625c2bf299&ext=.pdf

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Miller, C.M. (2012). Driverless Cars Get Offical O.K. The New York Times. Section B5(L). Retrieved from: http://tcna.primo.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com Mui, C. (22 Jan 2013). Fasten Your Seatbelts: Googles Driverless Car is Worth Trillions (Part 1). Retrieved from the Leadership section of the Forbes website: http://www.forbes.com/sites/chunkamui/2013/01/22/fasten-your-seatbelts-googlesdriverless-car-is-worth-trillions/ National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. (2010). Did You Know Archive: Crashes. Retrieved from: http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/DidYouKnow.aspx Noor, A.K. and Beiker, S.A. (2012). Intelligent and Connected. Mechanical Engineering, 134(11), 32-37. Retrieved from: http://search.proquest.com.ezproxy.nu.edu/docview/1146500355/fulltextPDF?accountid= 25320 Sykes, K. (Broadcaster). (2011). A Look Inside Googles Driverless Car [YouTube Broadcast]. Retrieved from: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J17Qgc4a8xY United States Census Bureau. (2012). Table 1103. Motor Vehicle Accidents Number and Deaths: 1990 to 2009. Retrieved from the U.S. Department of Commerces United States Census Bureau website: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/2012/tables/12s1103.pdf

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2010 U.S. Census Reported Traffic Fatalities

Fatalities caused by human error

Fatalities caused by other reasons not related to human judgment

Figure 1. A stark comparison of the large proportion of traffic fatalities caused by human error. Data source: www.nhtsa.gov and Noor and Beiker's article Intelligent and Connected Mechanical Engineering (Nov 2012).

Annual Automobile Accidents

12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 Automobiles Driven by Humans Autonomous Vehicles Automobiles Driven by Humans Autonomous Vehicles

Figure 2. A comparison based on 2009 figures which demonstrates the potential for reduced number of annual U.S. automobile accidents. Data source: www.census.gov and forbes.com.

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Annual Automobile Fatalities

40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Automobiles Driven by Humans Autonomous Vehicles

Automobiles Driven by Humans Autonomous Vehicles

Figure 3. A comparison based on 2009 figures which demonstrates the potential for reduced number of annual U.S. automobile fatalities. Data source: www.census.gov and forbes.com.