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A Risk Management Approach for Boiler Waterwall Tube Failure

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF METHODOLOGY

3.

Estimate the predicted Number of Leaks/Ruptures as a function of Additional Operational

Cycles

-

   

Estimated Project Duration (In Days )

Estimated

Estimated

Cost of

Lost

Lost

Alternative

Total Repair

Availability

Generation

Relative to

 

ALTERNATIVE

Cost

Payment

Revenue

Full Retube

1. FULL BOILER RETUBE

0.612

180

0.328

0.060

1.000

2. 100% INSPECTION AND REPLACE CORNER TUBES

0.131

70

0.128

0.000

0.258

3a. INSPECT CORNERS AND OTHER HIGH RISK AREAS (WITH PSB-28)

0.025

30

0.055

0.000

0.079

3b. 100% INSPECTION & REPAIR AS REQUIRED

0.053

60

0.109

0.000

0.163

4.

1.5X HYDRO

0.057

70

0.128

0.000

0.184

 

TUBE LEAK COSTS

0.002

5

0.009

0.003

0.014

TUBE RUPTURE COSTS (WITHOUT ASBESTOS)

0.008

7

0.013

0.005

0.026

TUBE RUPTURE COSTS (WITH ASBESTOS)

0.069

70

0.128

0.046

0.243

INSULATION REPLACEMENT COSTS

0.064

42

0.077

0.000

0.141

All Costs are Relative to Full Boiler Retube

Number of Additional Cycles

WITHOUT INSULATION REPLACEMENT:

40

80

120

RANK-120

RANK-80

ALT. 0: CONTINUE "AS-IS"; W/O Ins. Replacement ALT. 1: FULL BOILER RETUBE; W/O Ins. Replacement * ALT. 2: PARTIAL RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/O Ins. Replacement ALT. 3a: INSPECT HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/O Ins. Replacement

0.312

1.600

3.511

11

9

N/C*

N/C*

N/C*

0.527

1.661

3.346

9

11

0.151

0.401

0.772

4

2

ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR AS REQD.; W/O Ins. Replacement

0.202

0.306

0.459

1

1

ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W/O Ins. Replacement

0.451

1.621

3.369

10

10

WITH INSULATION REPLACEMENT:

ALT. 0: CONTINUE "AS-IS"; W/ Ins. Replacement ALT. 1: FULL BOILER RETUBE; W/ Ins. Replacement ALT. 2: PARTIAL RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/ Ins. Replacement ALT. 3a: INSPECT HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/ Ins. Replacement ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR AS REQD.; W/ Ins. Replacement ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W Ins. Replacement

0.346

0.692

1.188

7

5

1.000

1.000

1.000

5

8

0.577

0.846

1.230

8

7

0.355

0.478

0.657

2

3

0.433

0.537

0.689

3

4

0.485

0.714

1.045

6

6

* Option not considered - If boiler is retubed, insulation would be replaced.

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

0 0 0 0 0 0 Actual Data Simulated Log. Fit of Actual Data 0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Actual Data
Simulated
Log. Fit of Actual Data
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Depth

Length

55% 50% Simulated (fit) Actual Data 45% ----- w/Inspection 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15%
55%
50%
Simulated (fit)
Actual Data
45%
----- w/Inspection
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
Fraction of Total Flaws (%)

Flaw Length (inch)

C C D SOUTH (FRONT) WALL 35’-58’ Windbox D1 B C2 D2 C2 9-35’ A
C
C
D
SOUTH (FRONT) WALL
35’-58’
Windbox
D1
B
C2
D2
C2
9-35’
A
A
EAST (RIGHT) &
WEST (LEFT)
WALLS
162’
10 Tubes
184 Tubes
B1
40’
E
E
F
57-91 Tube
9’ - 40’ Elev
10 Tubes
NORTH (BACK) WALL
35’-58’
128 Tubes
Windbox
F1
E2
F2
E2
9-35’
10 Tubes
184 Tubes
10 Tubes NORTH (BACK) WALL 35’-58’ 128 Tubes Windbox F1 E2 F2 E2 9-35’ 10 Tubes
162’ 162’
162’
162’
10 Tubes NORTH (BACK) WALL 35’-58’ 128 Tubes Windbox F1 E2 F2 E2 9-35’ 10 Tubes

Distribution for C1= / Value

0.173 0.139 0.104 0.069 0.035 0.000 PROBABILITY
0.173
0.139
0.104
0.069
0.035
0.000
PROBABILITY

80 85 90 95 100105110115120125

Values in 10^-14

Distribution for t wall= / Value

0.174 0.139 0.104 0.069 0.035 0.000 230 242 254 266 278 290 PROBABILITY
0.174
0.139
0.104
0.069
0.035
0.000
230
242
254
266
278
290
PROBABILITY

Values in 10^-3

Distribution for Ini Length= / Value

0.286 0.229 0.171 0.114 0.057 0.000 PROBABILITY
0.286
0.229
0.171
0.114
0.057
0.000
PROBABILITY

01234567

Distribution for K multiplier / Value

0.184 0.147 0.110 0.073 0.037 0.000 PROBABILITY
0.184
0.147
0.110
0.073
0.037
0.000
PROBABILITY

-0.200.000.200.400.600.801.001.20

Distribution for Ini Depth= / C1

0.089 0.071 0.054 0.036 0.018 0.000 PROBABILITY
0.089
0.071
0.054
0.036
0.018
0.000
PROBABILITY

0.040 0.060 0.080 0.100 0.120 0.140 0.160 0.180 0.200 0.220 0.240 0.260

Distribution for L crit= / Value

0.184 0.148 0.111 0.074 0.037 0.000 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
0.184
0.148
0.111
0.074
0.037
0.000
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
PROBABILITY

 

CUM. PROBABILITIES (CDF):

 

7" Max. Length

4" Max. Length

Cycles

Leak

Burst

Leak

Burst

40

0.598%

0.038%

0.447%

0.000%

60

1.122%

0.107%

0.801%

0.000%

80

1.729%

0.196%

1.227%

0.000%

100

2.385%

0.293%

1.765%

0.000%

120

3.174%

0.405%

2.369%

0.001%

140

4.001%

0.540%

3.102%

0.003%

160

4.962%

0.727%

3.920%

0.005%

180

6.046%

0.914%

4.801%

0.011%

200

7.228%

1.112%

5.756%

0.025%

220

8.587%

1.336%

6.821%

0.045%

240

9.895%

1.570%

7.980%

0.076%

260

11.352%

1.829%

9.336%

0.108%

280

12.880%

2.095%

10.754%

0.162%

300

14.481%

2.361%

12.257%

0.226%

320

16.193%

2.634%

13.848%

0.294%

340

17.880%

2.908%

15.512%

0.368%

360

19.663%

3.172%

17.221%

0.453%

380

21.402%

3.462%

19.042%

0.549%

400

23.263%

3.767%

20.914%

0.648%

420

25.120%

4.075%

22.726%

0.754%

440

26.974%

4.382%

24.647%

0.871%

Cycles

INCREMENTAL PROBABILITIES (PDF):

40

0.598%

0.038%

0.447%

0.000%

80

1.131%

0.158%

0.780%

0.000%

120

1.445%

0.209%

1.142%

0.001%

160

1.787%

0.322%

1.551%

0.004%

200

2.266%

0.385%

1.835%

0.020%

240

2.667%

0.458%

2.224%

0.051%

280

2.984%

0.525%

2.774%

0.086%

320

3.313%

0.539%

3.093%

0.132%

360

3.470%

0.538%

3.373%

0.159%

400

3.599%

0.595%

3.692%

0.195%

440

3.711%

0.614%

3.733%

0.223%

Cum. Prob. of Leak/Burst

25% 7" Max. Leak 7" Max. Burst 4" Max. Leak 4" Max. Burst 20% 15%
25%
7" Max. Leak
7" Max. Burst
4" Max. Leak
4" Max. Burst
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Prob.(%)

40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 Cycles

2 1.75 1.5 1.25 1 0.75 0.5 0.25 0 40 50 60 70 80 90
2
1.75
1.5
1.25
1
0.75
0.5
0.25
0
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Relative Cost

ALT. 0: CONTINUE "AS-IS"; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 11ALT. 2: PARTIAL RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 9 ALT. 3a:

ALT. 2: PARTIAL RETUBE (30 PER0: CONTINUE "AS-IS"; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 11 CORNER); W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 9

CORNER); W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK #

9

ALT. 3a: INSPECT HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 4RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 9 ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR

ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR AS REQD.; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 1HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 4 ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W/O

ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W/O Ins.& REPAIR AS REQD.; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 1 Replacement; RANK # 10 ALT. 0:

Replacement; RANK # 10

ALT. 0: CONTINUE "AS-IS"; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 7RANK # 1 ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W/O Ins. Replacement; RANK # 10 ALT. 1: FULL

ALT. 1: FULL BOILER RETUBE; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 5

ALT. 2: PARTIAL RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 87 ALT. 1: FULL BOILER RETUBE; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 5 ALT. 3a: INSPECT HIGH

ALT. 3a: INSPECT HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 2RETUBE (30 PER CORNER); W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 8 ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR

ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR AS REQD.; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 33a: INSPECT HIGH RISK AREAS & REPAIR; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 2 ALT. 4: 1.5X

ALT. 4: 1.5X HYDRO; W Ins. Replacement; RANK # 6& REPAIR; W/ Ins. Replacement; RANK # 2 ALT. 3b: 100% INSPECT & REPAIR AS REQD.;

Number of Additional Cycles