N Observ.

1
1
1

AO
2008
2009
2011

TCF
DEMANDA

x AO
2008
2009
2011

0.50
0.45
0.57

TOTAL
PROMEDIO

1.52
0.51

y DEMANDA
0.50
0.45
0.57

6028.000
2009.33333

1.52
0.51

yx xxy
a
n x x
2

CALCULO

De esta forma la ecuacion es:

y=a+bX
Reemplazando el valor de las constantes se tiene:
N Observ.

AO

1
1
1

2008
2009
2011

N Observ.
1
1
1

ecuacion

AO
2008
2009
2011

TOTAL
PROMEDIO

y = a+bx

x AO

Demanda Histrica (y)

2008.
2009.
2011.

0.50
0.45
0.57

Demanda
Proyectada (y)
0.47
0.50
0.55

Demanda Histrica
(y)
x AO
y
2008.00000
0.50
2009.00000
0.45
2011.00000
0.57

DEMANDA
0.50
0.45
0.57

1.52
0.51

6028.00000
2009.33333

1.52
0.51

a
-56.90

b
.02857
ao
x

demanda
y TCF/AO

RESERVAS REALES
8,946

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026

0.50
0.45
0.525714286
0.57
0.582857143
0.611428571
0.64
0.668571429
0.697142857
0.725714286
0.754285714
0.782857143
0.811428571
0.84
0.868571429
0.897142857
0.925714286
0.954285714
0.982857143

470

AOS

97
PROMEDIO AO

xy DEMANDA*AO
1,004.00
904.05
1,146.27

x2
4,032,064.00
4,036,081.00
4,044,121.00

3,054.32
1,018.11

12,112,266.00
4,037,422.00

xy DEMANDA *AO
1,004.00
904.05
1,146.27

x2
4,032,064.00
4,036,081.00
4,044,121.00

y2

n=
0.25
0.20
0.32

nmero de observa

a=

-56.90

a=
b=

-56.90285714
.02857

0.78
0.26

y2
0.25
0.20
0.32

0.60
0.50
0.40
0.30

3,054.32
1,018.11

12,112,266.00
4,037,422.00

0.78
0.26

0.20
0.10

b
.02857
sumatoria de la demanda por ao

0.00

0.50
0.95
1.48
2.04571428571436
2.62857142857179
3.24000000000075
3.88000000000124
4.54857142857326
5.24571428571682
5.97142857143191
6.72571428571854
7.50857142857669
8.32000000000638
9.16000000000760
10.02857142858030
10.92571428572460
11.85142857144040
12.80571428572780
13.78857142858670

14.00

12.00

10.00

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

0.00
2006

2008

2010

2012

nmero de observaciones
-56.90
-56.90285714
.02857

Demanda Histrica

CONSUMO VS TIEMPO

2
0
1
1

2
0
0
9

2
0
0
8

demanda proyectada

CONSUMO VS TIEMPO

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

CONSUMO VS TIEMPO

2026

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
.000
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90
-56.90

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000
.00000

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00