Apoio Deciso

em Manuteno na
Gesto de Activos Fsicos
Rui Assis
2010
rassis@rassis.com
http://www.rassis.com

Distribuio de probabilidade de falhas Poisson

Nota: A mdia = varincia

(aplicvel ao clculo de sistemas stand-by no reparveis)

Clulas a azul para dados, verde claro para clculos intermdios e amarelo para resultados

tivos Fsicos

idade de falhas Poisson

mas stand-by no reparveis)

culos intermdios e amarelo para resultados

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

k
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374

Poisson distribution
p(k)
P(k<=K)
0.0113335 0.8759449
0.0106426 0.8865875
0.0099658 0.8965533
0.0093059 0.9058592
0.0086654 0.9145246
0.0080465 0.9225711
0.0074511 0.9300222
0.0068806 0.9369028
0.0063362 0.943239
0.0058188 0.9490578
0.005329 0.9543869
0.0048671 0.959254
0.004433
0.963687
0.0040267 0.9677137
0.0036477 0.9713614
0.0032954 0.9746567
0.002969 0.9776257
0.0026678 0.9802935
0.0023907 0.9826842
0.0021366 0.9848209
0.0019045 0.9867253

Note:
In a Poisson, the average is equal to the variance

p(k)

Order

Parameters
D=
L=
d =

27.78
12
0.95

units/period
periods

Reorder point
Q=

364

units

0.012

1
0.98

0.01
0.96

p(x ) = [(klt)x .e ] / x !
0.008
P(x <=X ) = p(0)+p(1)+p(2)+...+p(X )

0.92
0.9

0.004

0.88
0.86

0.002
0.84

374

373

372

371

370

369

368

367

366

365

364

363

362

361

360

359

358

357

356

0.82

355

P(k<=K)

0.94

0.006

354

p(k)

-klt

354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
373
374