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12 March 2006

Mobile Customer Segmentation

Main sponsors

Mobile Monday Italy


Analysis and optimization for
mobile customers segmentation

Mobile Monday
Milan, March 2007

Mobile Monday Italy


Talk overview

! Optimization is key to good mobile


customers targeting
! VAS generated revenue considerable
increase due to optimization
! Present experimental results
! Discuss modeling issues
! Discuss learning issues

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The business problem

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Why we need optimization

! Large number of offers (thousands)


" tend to grow monotonically
! Large number of customers (millions)
! Small size screen
! Small number of opportunities
! Timing for pushing
! High risk of churning
" Mobile activities are usually payed

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How do we optimize?
! Various tools and systems available
" Data mining
" Advanced statistics
" Reporting
" Charting
" …
! “The art of Business Intelligence”
" Still a very human centered process

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Current common model

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A more sophisticated model

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Dynamic clustering, some issues

! Define a set of clusters


" How many?
" Homogeneus in size?
" Overlapping?
" Deterministics vs probabilistics?
" …
! Different data mining techniques
" Clustering
" Associations
" Classification
" Neural nets
" …

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Examples of “modeling” questions

! How often to send the same offer to the same user as long as
he/she does not buy it?
" How about after he/she purchases it?
! How soon to send another offer after a user’s purchase?
" What to do in between?
! How much can we push?
! Is there a better time of the day/day of week?
! In a multi-offer promotion:
" How many offers at the same time?
" What’s the best order?
" What’s the best mix?
! …

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Modeling is a difficult task

! Understanding the domain


! Understanding the service
! Understand the customer base
! What methodology?
! What variables?
! …

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Empirical approach

! To understand better domain features

thus

! To improve modeling

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Multiple exposure of same offer
! Random panel of users
! Same offer over 10 days (once every three days)
! All new offers in between
! Different from expected
0,90%

0,80%

0,70%
clicks/population size

0,60%

0,50%

0,40%

0,30%

0,20%

0,10%

0,00%
19-7 A 20-7 B 21-7 C 22-7 A 23-7 D 24-7 E 25-7 A 26-7 F 27-7 G 28-7 A

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Offer position
! Sequence of three offers in the same MMS
! Measured across all offers in the basket
! Unexpected last pos performance

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CTR w.r.t. position
! Extension of previous experiment
! CTR(A) > CTR(C) > CTR(B) from the db
! Best combination reflects position performance
! Interaction between CTR and position (i.e., not independent)

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Time interval between offers
! Slide show in a MMS
! Showing time duration affects CTR

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Learning related issues

! How to learn on new offers?


! Learning panel
" Randomly chosen representative set of users
" Expose them to new items for some time to measure the
interest
! How large the learning panel should
be?
! Learning time?
! …

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Learning panel population
! Annoyance effect may play a big role
! Unsubscriptions: 3.8% learning vs 1.6% optimized during 4-
week experiment
! Better to rotate learning users

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Bootstrap Learning
! Learning is an expensive process
! It cannot always be carried on, for instance:
" Learning can take longer than the lifespan of the
item itself, or
" The number of new items is so large that not
enough learning space is available
! We speed up learning (bootstrap) by using
static features (textual and visual) before
exposing the items to users

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Bootstrap learning
! Estimate offer potential based upon
graphical and textual features
! Those features have been previously
learned
! Bootstrap learning by a combination of
textual and visual features analysis:
" More targeted learning: increase overall
performance
" Under time constraints: learning is focused only
on more promising items

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About us
! Neodata Group s.r.l., a young small tech
company
" founded on Nov. 2003
" closed one round of financing on Oct. 2004
" profitable since Jan. 2006
! Advanced applied research on new media
" Joint work with universities and research centers
! Application
" Ad-Serving
" Mobile content targeting
" Data/Text mining

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Our clients
! AD-SERVING
" SEAT
! PagineGialle.it,PagineBianche.it,TuttoCittà,Tuttocittà Milano,Tuttocittà Napoli,Tuttocittà
Roma, Tuttocittà Torino
" PUBLITALIA '80
! TGCom.it,Jumpy.it,DagoSpia.it,Dagosex.it, Mediaset.it, Canale5, Amici, Italia1, Rete4, TG5,
Studio Aperto, La Fattoria, La Talpa, Guidegratis.it, Velagratis.it
" EUROPAGE
! Europages.com
" AD GRUPPO VIAGGIARE
! VolaGratis.it, Viaggiare.it, BravoFly.com, Bravofly.es, BravoFly.de, BravoFly.fr
" MOBIX
! Gossip.it, Oroscopi.it
" Altri siti minori

! DATA MINING
" MEDIASET
" H3G

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Thank you
www.neodatagroup.it

Mobile Monday Italy