University of Illinois

Spring 2012

ECE 313: Problem Set 3: Solutions Conditional probability, Bernoulli, and Binomial PMFs
1. [Alice, Bob, and Chess] (a) Independence is dened by P (AB ) = P (A)P (B ), not by P (AB ) = P (A). (b) P (Ac B ) = P (B ) P (AB ) = 0.1. P (Ac B c ) = P (Ac ) P (Ac B ) = 0.7. P (B c |Ac ) = P (Ac B c )/P (Ac ) = 7/8. (c) Bob and Alice can be late because of chess, or they can be late independently, thus P (AB ) = P (AB |C )P (C ) + P (AB |C c )P (C c ). The two postulates give us P (AB ) = P (C ) + P (A|C c )P (B |C c )(1 P (C )). Similarly, P (Ac B ) = (1 P (A|C c ))P (B |C c )(1 P (C )) and P (AB c ) = (1 P (B |C c ))P (A|C c )(1 P (C )). This gives us three equations for the three unknowns, P (C ), (A|C c ), and P (B |C c ). Solving yields P (C ) = 0.2. 2. [Independent and dependent events in a Karnaugh map] (a) Solution should be a Karnaugh map showing P (AB ) = 1/12, P (AB c ) = 1/3, P (Ac B ) = 1/6, and P (Ac B c ) = 1/2. (b) Solution should be a Karnaugh map showing P (AB ) = 1/24, P (AB c ) = 7/24, P (Ac B ) = 5/24, and P (Ac B c ) = 11/24. 3. [Bernoulli Bets and Binomial Bets] (a) i. Draw the PMF of X , pX (u) as a function of u. The plot should have an abscissa with the values 0 and 10000, whose probabilities are 49/50 and 1/50, respectively. ii. What is E [X ]? E [X ] = 200. iii. What is X ? X = 1002 p(1 p)C 2 = 1400. i. Sketch the PMF of Y , pY (v ) as a function of v . Label the minimum, maximum, and modal values of v . The distribution is a binomial distribution, with minimum at y = 0, maximum at y = 10000, and mode at approximately 100npC = 200. ii. What is E [Y ]? E [Y ] = 100Cpn = 200. iii. What is Y ? Y = np(1 p)C 2 = 140.

(b)

4. [The Bizarre Bernoulli] 5. [Binomial Passenger Trains] (a) E [X ] = np = 4. (b) pX (0) = (1 p)6 = (1/3)6 = 1/729. (c) P (Y 50X ) = pX (3)P (Y 150) + pX (4) + pX (5) + pX (6) = 496 729 . 6. [Adding Random Variables] (a) Z = 0 only if X = 0 and Y = 0, therefore pZ (0) = (1 p)M +N . (b) Z = 1 if X = 1 and Y = 0, or vice versa, therefore pZ (1) =
N 1 0.5(6 23 +(6 24 +(6 25 +(6 26 3) 4) 5) 6) 729

M 1

p(1 p)M +N 1 .

(c) pZ (k ) = (d) pZ (k ) =
M +N k M M i=0 i N ki

pk (1 p)M +N k 0 k M + N otherwise

pk (1 p)M +N k 0 k M + N otherwise

7. [Computer Problem: Binomial random variables] (a) (b) (c)