AO

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985

TPD (Y)
2322
2327
2368
2472
2682
2789
14960

X2

X
0
1
2
3
4
5
15

Y2

X.Y
0
2327
4736
7416
10728
13945
39152

0
1
4
9
16
25
55

5391684
5414929
5607424
6110784
7193124
7778521
37496466

MODELO RECEPCION LINELAL. (Y= a + Bx)

a=

( Y )( X 2 ) ( X )( X .Y )
( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2

2243.047619

b=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2) ( X ) 2

100.114

r=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2 ( N )( Y 2 ) ( Y ) 2

0.946

MODELO RECEPCION EXPONENCIAL ( Y= a.bx)

a=

( Y)( X 2)( X )( X .Y)

( N )( X 2)( X )2

3.35269562

a:

2,252.660

b=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2)( X ) 2

0.017

b:

1.040

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )

r=

( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2 ( N )( Y 2 ) ( Y ') 2

0.949

PROYECCIONES - TPD
AO
1986
1987
1988
1989
1900

X
6
7
8
9
10

METODO LINEAL Y=(a+bx)

2844
2944
3044
3144
3244

METODO EXP. Y=(abX)

2856
2972
3092
3217
3346

Y
3.366
3.367
3.374
3.393
3.428
3.445
20.374

X.Y
0.000
3.367
6.749
10.179
13.714
17.227
51.236

(Y)2
11.329
11.335
11.386
11.513
11.754
11.871
69.189

METODO LINEAL
3000
2789

2682

2500

2368

2327

2322

2472

2000
METODO LINEAL

1500

Tendencia
1000
500

y = 100.11x + 2243
R = 0.894

0
0

MEDOTO EXPONENCIAL
3000
2789

2682
2500

2472

2368

2327

2322
2000

MEDOTO EXPONENCIAL

1500

Tendencia
1000
500

y = 2252.7e0.0396x
R = 0.9015

0
0

MODELO DE REPRECION LINEAL (Y= a + Bx)

AO

X2

Y2

X.Y

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
45

0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
285

305
348
234
233
243
116
506
431
1253
942
4611

93025
121104
54756
54289
59049
13456
256036
185761
1570009
887364
3294849

0
348
468
699
972
580
3036
3017
10024
8478
27622

10

a=

( Y )( X 2 ) ( X )( X .Y )
( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2

86.2363636

b=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2) ( X ) 2

83.3030303

r=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2 ( N )( Y 2 ) ( Y ) 2

1400
1200
1000

1253

942

800
Series1

Series1
600
506
400
305

Linear (Series1)
431

348

y = 83.303x + 86.236
R = 0.4899

234 233 243

200

116
0
0

10

PROYECCIONES - T
AO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

X
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19

MODELO DE REPRECION EXPONENCIAL ( Y= a.b )

0.69989536

AO

X2

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

305
348
234
233
243
116
506
431
1253
942
4611

2.48429984
2.54157924
2.36921586
2.36735592
2.38560627
2.06445799
2.70415052
2.63447727
3.09795107
2.9740509
25.6231449

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
45

0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
285

10

a=

( Y)( X 2)( X )( X .Y)

( N )( X 2)( X )2

2.28091708

b=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )
( N )( X 2)( X ) 2

0.06253276

r=

( N )( X .Y ) ( X )( Y )

( N )( X 2 ) ( X ) 2 ( N )( Y 2 ) ( Y ') 2

1400
1200
1000
800
Series1

1253

942

Series1
Linear (Series1)
y = 83.303x + 86.236
R = 0.4899

600
506
400
305

431

348
234 233 243

200

116
0
0

PROYECCIONES - TPD
METODO LINEAL Y=(a+bx)
919.2666667
1002.569697
1085.872727
1169.175758
1252.478788
1335.781818
1419.084848
1502.387879
1585.690909
1668.993939

METODO EXP. Y=(abX)

805.8322659
930.6307746
1074.756715
1241.203307
1433.427332
1655.420917
1911.794446
2207.872309
2549.803482
2944.689223

NCIAL ( Y= a.b )

(X,Y)

(Y)2

0
1
4.73843171
7.10206776
9.54242509
10.3222899
16.2249031
18.4413409
24.7836086
26.7664581
120.463104

6.17174569
6.45962505
5.61318378
5.60437406
5.69111729
4.26198679
7.31243002
6.94047049
9.59730084
8.84497877
66.4972128

a= 190.948865

b= 1.15486909

( Y )

Y 2 ) ( Y ') 2

0.6187412

1253

942
Series1
Expon. (Series1)

Expon. (Series1)
Expon. (Series1)
y = 190.95e0.144x
R = 0.3828

10