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Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems

Second Edition
Roy Billinton
University of Saskatchewan College of Engineering Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada

and

Ronald N. Allan
University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology Manchester, England

PLENUM PRESS NEW YORK AND LONDON

Contents

1 Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Background

1 1 2 3 4 5 8 12

Changing scenario

Probabilistic reliability criteria Statistical and probabilistic measures Absolute and relative measures Methods of assessment System analysis 10 14 15 16 6 Concepts of adequacy and security Reliability cost and reliability worth

1.10 Concepts of data l-.ll Concluding comments 1.12 References

2 Generating capacitybasic probability methods 2.1 Introduction 18 21 21 24 2.2 The generation system model

18

2.2.1 Generating unit unavailability 2.2.2 Capacity outage probability tables

2.2.3 Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic criteria 2.2.4 A recursive algorithm for capacity model building 2.2.5 Recursive algorithm for unit removal 2.2.6 Alternative model-building techniques 2.3 Loss of load indices 37 37 2.3.1 Concepts and evaluation techniques 31 33 30

27

x Contents

2.3.2 Numerical examples 2.4 Equivalent forced outage rate 2.5 Capacity expansion analysis 2.5.1 Evaluation techniques 2.5.2 Perturbation effects 2.6 Scheduled outages 2.8 Load forecast uncertainty 2.9 Forced outage rate uncertainty 2.9.1 Exact method 62 2.9.2 Approximate method 2.9.3 Application 63 2.9.4 LOLE computation 2.9.5 Additional considerations 2.10 Loss of energy indices 2.10.1 2.10.2 68 52

40 46 48 48 50 55 61 63 64 67 68 70

2.7 Evaluation methods on period bases 56

Evaluation of energy indices Expected energy not supplied " 73 75

2.10.3 Energy-limited systems 2.11 Practical system studies 2.12 Conclusions 2.13 Problems 2.14 References 3 77 79 76

Generating capacityfrequency and duration method 3.1 Introduction 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3.1 3.3.2 83 84 84 3.2 The generation model

83

Fundamental development 95

Recursive algorithm for capacity model building Individual state load model Cumulative state load model 105 95 103

89

3.3 System risk indices

3.4 Practical system'studies

Contents

xi

3.4.1 3.4.2 3.4.3

Base case study

105 108 114

System expansion studies Load forecast uncertainty 114 114 115 117 117

3.5 Conclusions 3.6 Problems 3.7 References

4 Interconnected systems 4.1 Introduction 4.2.1 4.2.2 Concepts

4.2 Probability array method in two interconnected systems 118 119 Evaluation techniques 120 124 124 124 125 126 129 130 132 132

118

4.3 Equivalent assisting unit approach to two interconnected systems 4.4 Factors affecting the emergency assistance available through the interconnections 4.4.1 . 4.4.2 4.4.3 4.4.4 4.4.5 4.4.7 Introduction

Effect of tie capacity Effect of tie line reliability Effect of number of tie lines

Effect of tie-capacity uncertainty Effect of load forecast uncertainty

4.4.6 Effect of interconnection agreements

4.5 Variable reserve versus maximum peak load reserve 4.6 Reliability evaluation in three interconnected systems 4.6.1 4.6.2 Direct assistance from two systems Indirect assistance from two systems 139 141 134 135

134

4.7 Multi-connected systems 4.8.1 4.8.2 4.8.3 Concepts Applications Period analysis 141 142

4.8 Frequency and duration approach

145

XII Contents

4.9 Conclusions 4.10 Problems 4.11 References 5 Operating reserve 5.1 General concepts> 5.2 PJM method 5.2.1 5.2.2 Concepts

147 147 148 150 150 151 151 151 152 153 154 154 155

Outage replacement rate (ORR)

5.2.3 Generation model 5.2.4 Unit commitment risk 5.3 Extensions to PJM method 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.4.1 5.4.2 5.4.3 5.4.4

Load forecast uncertainty Derated (partial output) states 156 156 156 162 163 Concepts Area risk curves

5.4 Modified PJM method

Modelling rapid start units Modelling hot reserve units

158 161

5.4.5 Unit commitment risk 5.4.6 Numerical examples 5.5 Postponable outages 5.5.1 Concepts 5.5.2 168 168

Modelling postponable outages risk 170 170 171

168

5.5.3 Unit commitment 5.6 Security function approach 5.6.1 5.6.2 Concepts risk 170 172 172

Security function model

5.7 Response 5.7.2

5.7.1 Concepts

Evaluation techniques

173 174 175

5.7.3 Effect of distributing spinning reserve 5.7.4 Effect of hydro-electric units

Contents

xiii

5.7.5

Effect of rapid start units 178 178 179 180

176

5.8 Interconnected systems 5.9 Conclusions 5.10 Problems 5.11 References 6

Composite generation and transmission systems 6.1 Introduction 6.2 182 183 184 190 194 194 196 199 204 196 Radial configurations

182

6.3 Conditional probability approach 6.4 Network configurations 6.5 State selection 6.5.1 6.5.2 6.6.1 Concepts Application Concepts 194

6.6 System and load point indices 6.6.2 Numerical evaluation 6.7 Application to practical systems evaluation 6.8.1 6.8.2 6.8.3 6.8.4 6.8.5 6.8.6 6.8.7 Concepts Stochastic data Independent outages Dependent outages Common mode outages Station originated outages 215 216 218 210 210 210 211

6.8 Data requirements for composite system reliability

Deterministic data

211 212 212 213

6.9 Conclusions 6.10 Problems 6.11 References

7 Distribution systemsbasic techniques and radial networks 7.1 Introduction 220

220

xiv

Contents

7.2 Evaluation techniques 7.3.1 7.3.2 7.3.3 7.3.4 7.3.5 Concepts 223

221 223 223 225

7.3 Additional interruption indices Customer-orientated indices System performance System prediction

Load- and energy-orientated indices 226 228 229 232

7.4 Application to radial systems 7.6 Effect of disconnects 7.7 Effect of protection failures 7.8 Effect of transferring loads 7.8.1 No restrictions on transfer 7.8.2 Transfer restrictions 7.9.1 7.9.2 Concepts Failure rate 246 246 247 244 244 234

7.5 Effect of lateral distributor protection 234 238 238 240

7.9 Probability distributions of reliability indices

244

7.9.3 Restoration times 7.10 Conclusions 7.11 Problems 7.12 References 8

245 '

Distribution systemsparallel and meshed networks 8.1 Introduction 8.2.1 8.2.2 8.2.4 249 250 250 251 252 253 257 8.2 Basic evaluation techniques State space diagrams Approximate methods

249

8.2.3 Network reduction method ' 8.3 Inclusion of busbar failures 8.4.1 General concepts 255 257

Failure modes and effects analysis

8.4 Inclusion of scheduled maintenance

Contents xv

8.4.2 8.4.3

Evaluation techniques

258 259 260 262 262 265 266 267 268 270 270 277

Coordinated and uncoordinated maintenance

8.4.4 Numerical example 8.5 Temporary and transient failures 8.5.1 8.5.2 Concepts 262 Evaluation techniques

8.5.3 Numerical example 8.6 Inclusion of weather effects 8.6.1 8.6.2 8.6.3 8.6.4 8.6.5 8.6.7 8.6.9 8.7.1 8.7.2 8.8.1 8.8.2 8.9 8.9.1 8.9.2 8.9.3 8.9.4 Concepts 266 Weather state modelling Evaluation methods

Failure rates in a two-state weather model Overlapping forced outages 281 283 285 285 287 289

Forced outage overlapping maintenance Application to complex systems Evaluation techniques

8.6.8 Numerical examples 8.7 Common mode failures

Application and numerical examples Evaluation techniques Sensitivity analysis Simplest breaker model Failure modes of a breaker Modelling assumptions Simplified breaker models 296 297 298 301 289 291 292 292 293 294 295

8.8 Common mode failures and weather effects

Inclusion of breaker failures

8.9.5 Numerical example 8.10 Conclusions 8.11 Problems 8.12 References

xvi ContBnts

9 Distribution systems extended techniques 9.1 Introduction 302 303 305 9.2 Total loss of continuity (TLOC) 9.3 Partial loss of continuity (PLOC) 9.3.1 9.3.2 9.3.3 9.3.4 9.3.5 9.3.6 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 Selecting outage combinations PLOC criteria 305 Alleviation of network violations Evaluation of PLOC indices Extended loadduration curve Numerical example General concepts Evaluation techniques 319 319 322 310 311 311 314 316 317 306

302

305 306 309

9.4 Effect of transferable loads

Transferable load modelling

9.4.4 Numerical example 9.5 Economic considerations 9.5.1 9.5.2 General concepts Outage costs 325 325 326

9.6 Conclusions 9.7 Problems 9.8 References

10 Substations and switching stations 10.1 Introduction 10.2.1 Concepts 10.2.2 Logistics 327

327 327

10.2 Effect of short circuits and breaker operation 327 329 329

10.2.3 Numerical examples 10.4 Open and short circuit failures 10.4.2 Short circuits 333

10.3 Operating and failure states of system components 332

332 332

10.4.1 Open circuits and inadvertent opening of breakers

Contents

xvii

10.4.3 Numerical example 10.5 Active and passive failures 10.5.1 General concepts 10.5.2 Effect of failure mode

334 334 334 336 338 339 341

10.5.3 Simulation of failure modes 10.5.4 Evaluation of reliability indices 10.6 Malfunction of normally closed breakers 10.6.1 General concepts 10.6.2 Numerical example 10.6.3 Deduction and evaluation 10.7 Numerical analysis of typical substation 10.8 Malfunction of alternative supplies 10.8.2 Failures in alternative supplies 10.9 Conclusions 10.10 Problems 10.11 References 352 352 354 355 355 355 355 341 341

342 343 348 348 349

10.8.1 Malfunction of normally open breakers

11 Plant and station availability 11.1 Generating plant availability 11.1.1 Concepts 11.1.2 Generating units

11.1.3 Including effect of station transformers 11.2 Derated states and auxiliary systems 11.2.1 Concepts 361 362 365 365 11.2.2 Modelling derated states 11.3 Allocation and effect of spares 11.3.1 Concepts 365 367 361

358

11.3.2 Review of modelling techniques 11.3.3 Numerical examples 11.4 Protection systems 11.4.1 Concepts 374 374

xviii Contents

11.4.2 Evaluation techniques and system modelling 11.4.3 Evaluation of failure to operate 11.4.4 Evaluation of inadvertent operation 11.5 HVDC systems 11.5.1 Concepts 382 382 384 384 386 389 391 392 395 375 381

374

11.5.2 Typical HVDC schemes 11.5.3 Rectifier/inverter bridges 11.5.4 Bridge equivalents 11.5.5 Converter stations 11.5.7 Composite HVDC link 11.5.8 Numerical examples 11.6 Conclusions 11.7 Problems 11.8 References 396 396 398

11.5.6 Transmission links and filters

12 Applications of Monte Carlo simulation 12.1 Introduction 400 401 401 403 403 12.2 Types of simulation 12.3 Concepts of simulation 12.4 Random numbers 12.5 Simulation output 12.6.1 Introduction

400

12.6 Application to generation capacity reliability evaluation 405 405 12.6.2 Modelling concepts

405

12.6.3 LOLE assessment with nonchronological load 12.6.4 LOLE assessment with chronological load 12.6.6 Reliability assessment with chronological load 12.7 Application to composite generation and transmission systems 422 422 12.7.1 Introduction 412 12.6.5 Reliability assessment with nonchronological load

409 416 417

Contents

xix

12.7.2 Modelling concepts 12.7.3 Numerical applications

423 423 425 426 427 430

12.7.4 Extensions to basic approach 12.8 Application to distribution systems 12.8.1 Introduction 426 12.8.2 Modelling concepts

12.8.3 Numerical examples for radial networks 12.8.4 Numerical examples for meshed (parallel) , networks 12.9 Conclusions 12.10 Problems 12.11 References 439 440 440 443 433 439 12.8.5 Extensions to the basic approach

13 Evaluation of reliability worth 13.1 Introduction 443

13.2 Implicit/explicit evaluation of reliability worth 1-3.3 Customer interruption cost evaluation 13.4 Basic evaluation approaches 13.5 Cost of interruption surveys 13.5.1 Considerations 13.6 Customer damage functions 13.6.1 Concepts 450 447 447 450 13.5.2 Cost valuation methods 445 447 444

443

13.6.2 Reliability worth assessment at HLI 13.6.3 Reliability worth assessment at HLII functional zone 13.7 Conclusions 13.8 References 472 473 462

451 459

13.6.4 Reliability worth assessment in the distribution 13.6.5 Station reliability worth assessment 469

xx

Contents

14 Epilogue

476 478 481

Appendix 1 Definitions

Appendix 2 Analysis of the IEEE Reliability Test System A2.1 Introduction A2.2 IEEE-OTS A2.3 IEEE-RTS results A2.3.1 Single system 481 481 484 484 486 486

A2.3.2 Interconnected systems A2.4 Conclusion A2.5 References 490 490

A2.3.3 Frequency and duration approach

Appendix 3 Third-order equations for overlapping events A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Symbols 491 491 492 493 495 495 495 496

491

A3.3 Temporary/transient failure overlapping two permanent failures maintenance outage A3.5 Common mode failures mode failure failure A3.4 Temporary/transient failure overlapping a permanent and a

A3.5.1 All three components may suffer a common A3.5.2 Only two components may suffer a common mode A3.6 Adverse weather effects

A3.7 Common mode failures and adverse weather effects A3.7.1 Repair is possible in adverse weather A3.7.2 Repair is not done during adverse weather Solutions to problems Index 509 500 499

499 499