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Second Edition
Roy Billinton
University of Saskatchewan College of Engineering Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
and
Ronald N. Allan
University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology Manchester, England
Contents
1 Introduction 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 Background
1 1 2 3 4 5 8 12
Changing scenario
Probabilistic reliability criteria Statistical and probabilistic measures Absolute and relative measures Methods of assessment System analysis 10 14 15 16 6 Concepts of adequacy and security Reliability cost and reliability worth
2 Generating capacitybasic probability methods 2.1 Introduction 18 21 21 24 2.2 The generation system model
18
2.2.3 Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic criteria 2.2.4 A recursive algorithm for capacity model building 2.2.5 Recursive algorithm for unit removal 2.2.6 Alternative model-building techniques 2.3 Loss of load indices 37 37 2.3.1 Concepts and evaluation techniques 31 33 30
27
x Contents
2.3.2 Numerical examples 2.4 Equivalent forced outage rate 2.5 Capacity expansion analysis 2.5.1 Evaluation techniques 2.5.2 Perturbation effects 2.6 Scheduled outages 2.8 Load forecast uncertainty 2.9 Forced outage rate uncertainty 2.9.1 Exact method 62 2.9.2 Approximate method 2.9.3 Application 63 2.9.4 LOLE computation 2.9.5 Additional considerations 2.10 Loss of energy indices 2.10.1 2.10.2 68 52
40 46 48 48 50 55 61 63 64 67 68 70
2.10.3 Energy-limited systems 2.11 Practical system studies 2.12 Conclusions 2.13 Problems 2.14 References 3 77 79 76
Generating capacityfrequency and duration method 3.1 Introduction 3.2.1 3.2.2 3.3.1 3.3.2 83 84 84 3.2 The generation model
83
Fundamental development 95
Recursive algorithm for capacity model building Individual state load model Cumulative state load model 105 95 103
89
Contents
xi
System expansion studies Load forecast uncertainty 114 114 115 117 117
4.2 Probability array method in two interconnected systems 118 119 Evaluation techniques 120 124 124 124 125 126 129 130 132 132
118
4.3 Equivalent assisting unit approach to two interconnected systems 4.4 Factors affecting the emergency assistance available through the interconnections 4.4.1 . 4.4.2 4.4.3 4.4.4 4.4.5 4.4.7 Introduction
Effect of tie capacity Effect of tie line reliability Effect of number of tie lines
4.5 Variable reserve versus maximum peak load reserve 4.6 Reliability evaluation in three interconnected systems 4.6.1 4.6.2 Direct assistance from two systems Indirect assistance from two systems 139 141 134 135
134
4.7 Multi-connected systems 4.8.1 4.8.2 4.8.3 Concepts Applications Period analysis 141 142
145
XII Contents
4.9 Conclusions 4.10 Problems 4.11 References 5 Operating reserve 5.1 General concepts> 5.2 PJM method 5.2.1 5.2.2 Concepts
147 147 148 150 150 151 151 151 152 153 154 154 155
5.2.3 Generation model 5.2.4 Unit commitment risk 5.3 Extensions to PJM method 5.3.1 5.3.2 5.4.1 5.4.2 5.4.3 5.4.4
Load forecast uncertainty Derated (partial output) states 156 156 156 162 163 Concepts Area risk curves
158 161
5.4.5 Unit commitment risk 5.4.6 Numerical examples 5.5 Postponable outages 5.5.1 Concepts 5.5.2 168 168
168
5.5.3 Unit commitment 5.6 Security function approach 5.6.1 5.6.2 Concepts risk 170 172 172
5.7.1 Concepts
Evaluation techniques
Contents
xiii
5.7.5
176
Composite generation and transmission systems 6.1 Introduction 6.2 182 183 184 190 194 194 196 199 204 196 Radial configurations
182
6.3 Conditional probability approach 6.4 Network configurations 6.5 State selection 6.5.1 6.5.2 6.6.1 Concepts Application Concepts 194
6.6 System and load point indices 6.6.2 Numerical evaluation 6.7 Application to practical systems evaluation 6.8.1 6.8.2 6.8.3 6.8.4 6.8.5 6.8.6 6.8.7 Concepts Stochastic data Independent outages Dependent outages Common mode outages Station originated outages 215 216 218 210 210 210 211
Deterministic data
220
xiv
Contents
7.2 Evaluation techniques 7.3.1 7.3.2 7.3.3 7.3.4 7.3.5 Concepts 223
7.3 Additional interruption indices Customer-orientated indices System performance System prediction
7.4 Application to radial systems 7.6 Effect of disconnects 7.7 Effect of protection failures 7.8 Effect of transferring loads 7.8.1 No restrictions on transfer 7.8.2 Transfer restrictions 7.9.1 7.9.2 Concepts Failure rate 246 246 247 244 244 234
244
245 '
Distribution systemsparallel and meshed networks 8.1 Introduction 8.2.1 8.2.2 8.2.4 249 250 250 251 252 253 257 8.2 Basic evaluation techniques State space diagrams Approximate methods
249
8.2.3 Network reduction method ' 8.3 Inclusion of busbar failures 8.4.1 General concepts 255 257
Contents xv
8.4.2 8.4.3
Evaluation techniques
258 259 260 262 262 265 266 267 268 270 270 277
8.4.4 Numerical example 8.5 Temporary and transient failures 8.5.1 8.5.2 Concepts 262 Evaluation techniques
8.5.3 Numerical example 8.6 Inclusion of weather effects 8.6.1 8.6.2 8.6.3 8.6.4 8.6.5 8.6.7 8.6.9 8.7.1 8.7.2 8.8.1 8.8.2 8.9 8.9.1 8.9.2 8.9.3 8.9.4 Concepts 266 Weather state modelling Evaluation methods
Failure rates in a two-state weather model Overlapping forced outages 281 283 285 285 287 289
Application and numerical examples Evaluation techniques Sensitivity analysis Simplest breaker model Failure modes of a breaker Modelling assumptions Simplified breaker models 296 297 298 301 289 291 292 292 293 294 295
xvi ContBnts
9 Distribution systems extended techniques 9.1 Introduction 302 303 305 9.2 Total loss of continuity (TLOC) 9.3 Partial loss of continuity (PLOC) 9.3.1 9.3.2 9.3.3 9.3.4 9.3.5 9.3.6 9.4.1 9.4.2 9.4.3 Selecting outage combinations PLOC criteria 305 Alleviation of network violations Evaluation of PLOC indices Extended loadduration curve Numerical example General concepts Evaluation techniques 319 319 322 310 311 311 314 316 317 306
302
9.4.4 Numerical example 9.5 Economic considerations 9.5.1 9.5.2 General concepts Outage costs 325 325 326
10 Substations and switching stations 10.1 Introduction 10.2.1 Concepts 10.2.2 Logistics 327
327 327
10.2 Effect of short circuits and breaker operation 327 329 329
10.2.3 Numerical examples 10.4 Open and short circuit failures 10.4.2 Short circuits 333
332 332
Contents
xvii
10.4.3 Numerical example 10.5 Active and passive failures 10.5.1 General concepts 10.5.2 Effect of failure mode
10.5.3 Simulation of failure modes 10.5.4 Evaluation of reliability indices 10.6 Malfunction of normally closed breakers 10.6.1 General concepts 10.6.2 Numerical example 10.6.3 Deduction and evaluation 10.7 Numerical analysis of typical substation 10.8 Malfunction of alternative supplies 10.8.2 Failures in alternative supplies 10.9 Conclusions 10.10 Problems 10.11 References 352 352 354 355 355 355 355 341 341
11 Plant and station availability 11.1 Generating plant availability 11.1.1 Concepts 11.1.2 Generating units
11.1.3 Including effect of station transformers 11.2 Derated states and auxiliary systems 11.2.1 Concepts 361 362 365 365 11.2.2 Modelling derated states 11.3 Allocation and effect of spares 11.3.1 Concepts 365 367 361
358
11.3.2 Review of modelling techniques 11.3.3 Numerical examples 11.4 Protection systems 11.4.1 Concepts 374 374
xviii Contents
11.4.2 Evaluation techniques and system modelling 11.4.3 Evaluation of failure to operate 11.4.4 Evaluation of inadvertent operation 11.5 HVDC systems 11.5.1 Concepts 382 382 384 384 386 389 391 392 395 375 381
374
11.5.2 Typical HVDC schemes 11.5.3 Rectifier/inverter bridges 11.5.4 Bridge equivalents 11.5.5 Converter stations 11.5.7 Composite HVDC link 11.5.8 Numerical examples 11.6 Conclusions 11.7 Problems 11.8 References 396 396 398
12 Applications of Monte Carlo simulation 12.1 Introduction 400 401 401 403 403 12.2 Types of simulation 12.3 Concepts of simulation 12.4 Random numbers 12.5 Simulation output 12.6.1 Introduction
400
12.6 Application to generation capacity reliability evaluation 405 405 12.6.2 Modelling concepts
405
12.6.3 LOLE assessment with nonchronological load 12.6.4 LOLE assessment with chronological load 12.6.6 Reliability assessment with chronological load 12.7 Application to composite generation and transmission systems 422 422 12.7.1 Introduction 412 12.6.5 Reliability assessment with nonchronological load
Contents
xix
12.7.4 Extensions to basic approach 12.8 Application to distribution systems 12.8.1 Introduction 426 12.8.2 Modelling concepts
12.8.3 Numerical examples for radial networks 12.8.4 Numerical examples for meshed (parallel) , networks 12.9 Conclusions 12.10 Problems 12.11 References 439 440 440 443 433 439 12.8.5 Extensions to the basic approach
13.2 Implicit/explicit evaluation of reliability worth 1-3.3 Customer interruption cost evaluation 13.4 Basic evaluation approaches 13.5 Cost of interruption surveys 13.5.1 Considerations 13.6 Customer damage functions 13.6.1 Concepts 450 447 447 450 13.5.2 Cost valuation methods 445 447 444
443
13.6.2 Reliability worth assessment at HLI 13.6.3 Reliability worth assessment at HLII functional zone 13.7 Conclusions 13.8 References 472 473 462
451 459
13.6.4 Reliability worth assessment in the distribution 13.6.5 Station reliability worth assessment 469
xx
Contents
14 Epilogue
Appendix 1 Definitions
Appendix 2 Analysis of the IEEE Reliability Test System A2.1 Introduction A2.2 IEEE-OTS A2.3 IEEE-RTS results A2.3.1 Single system 481 481 484 484 486 486
Appendix 3 Third-order equations for overlapping events A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Symbols 491 491 492 493 495 495 495 496
491
A3.3 Temporary/transient failure overlapping two permanent failures maintenance outage A3.5 Common mode failures mode failure failure A3.4 Temporary/transient failure overlapping a permanent and a
A3.5.1 All three components may suffer a common A3.5.2 Only two components may suffer a common mode A3.6 Adverse weather effects
A3.7 Common mode failures and adverse weather effects A3.7.1 Repair is possible in adverse weather A3.7.2 Repair is not done during adverse weather Solutions to problems Index 509 500 499
499 499