Smite: Theorycraft and mathematical calculations

General Info
Xeran 20-10-2013 Version 3 I make these calculations in Maple 17 (a mathematical program for doing 'exact' calculations). If someone also has this program and wants this file not as pdf, but as Maple file, then I can provide it if requested. An index with all chapters with in this document is provided to allow quick searches. Also every chapter and subsections can be noted by the little arrow before their titles. Finally numbers between square brackets denote a refrence, which can be found in the refrence chapter (completly at the end of this document). Be aware that to follow all calculations and steps taken some mathematical pre-knowledge is required, even though most definitions will be explained in the terminology & definitions chapter. Any questions, comments, suggestion or faults found in this document, please let it known me on reddit (/u/Xeran_) or leave a message on my Scribd page were this document is published [1]: www.scribd.com/Xeran_ Also my other Smite articles can be found there including some theorycrafting on for example the Hel change (patch 9-10-13) and god concepts. Note: I'm and European, so in certain things I will take European conventions. One is alreadt noticable above with my date notation, which is day-month-year, so please keep this in mind. To avoid these kind of things I will try to be very precise and complete with estabishing definitions as refrence to avoid these kind of problems. Disclaimer: Please note, that this is still in prject in proccess and anything is still subject to change.

Terminology & Definitions Index

General info Terminology & Definitions: 1. Damage 2. Heal 3. Defense 4. Penetration 5. Health 6. Lifesteal 7. Divisor of Damage 8. Critical hits/damage 9. CD reduction 10. CC reduction 11. Movement speed

12. Gold 13. Etc. Index Chapters Items: 1. Hydra's Lament VS Jotunn's Wrath 2. Hydra's Lament VS Polynomicon 3. Qin's VS Soul reaver Gods: Misc.: 1. Item/Stats prices 2. Ward coverage problem 3. Optimal junking manouver Refrences Changelog

Chapters
Items
1. Hydra's Lament VS Jottun's Wrath 2. Hydra's Lament VS Polynomicon 3. Qin's VS Soul reaver Before the comparison is made the following information was retrieved from the Hirez website about these two items on 20-10-2013. [4] Qin's: Physical power: 30 Health: 150 Attack speed: +25% This item causes the owner's basic attacks to deal a percentage of the target's health as additional damage. Passive - On basic attack hits, deal physical damage equal to 2.5% of the target's maximum health. This only affects gods. Gold: 2650 Soul Reaver Magical power: 100 Mana: 300 This item causes the owner's ability to deal a percentage of the target's health as additiona damage. Passive - When a god takes damage from your abilities , they take 15% of their maximum health in additional damage. If multiple gods are hit, the damage is applied to the one with the greatest maximum health. This can only occur once every 60 seconds. Gold: 3100

Important note: To compare these two items mathematically in the analysis only the two passive of both items will be compared. Also we are only comparing total potential extra damage (see Terminology) and therefore defenses, penetrations, etc. isn't taking into account. And therefore both passives can be compared with each other in this way. So in short only the additional damage potential of this passive is considerded for both. For a 60 second time interval both passives will additonally do for Qin's the right hand side (RHS) and for Soul reaver the left hand side (LHS) of the equation:

(1.4.1.3.1) In this equation H is the maximum health of the enemy target and x is the amount of attacks you hit on on enemy gods within 60 seconds. Solving equation (1.4.1.3.1) for the variable x the amount of attacks you need to hit in 60 seconds to make Qin's passive potentially better than Soul reaver is:
solve for x

(1.4.1.3.2) So whenever you can hit 6 or more attacks on the same enemy god Qin's will do additonally more damage than Soul Reaver on enemy gods. Of course this is dependent of a lot of factor if this is possible, such as oppurtunity to do so. Opportunity to do so can be splitted in if you are able to 'stick' to a certain enemy god for a certain amount of time and the maximum amount of chances you totally get to shoot in those 60 seconds. So how many % of the attacks need to be hit of your chances on one enemy god. To calculate this the following equation can be used:

(1.4.1.3.3) Your chance of hitting AA's is then defined as, whereby X is the maximum chances you can hit in a certain time interval (60 seconds), Y the amount of times you actually hit and C the probability of hitting:

(1.4.1.3.4)
solve for Y

(1.4.1.3.5)

To make sure Qin's is better than soul reaver the following thing has to be satisfied:

(1.4.1.3.6) Than to be able to plot the results for the minium required attack speed for different values for the probalbility of hitting the following plot can be made: Please note the probability has to lie in the interval [0,1], which is just a trivial thing. And the attack speed in the interval [0,2.5], whereby 0 already would be very unlikely and in most cases base attack speed is 1 attack per second and 2.5 is the cap for attack speed.

Anywhere in the blue area Qin's blade passive is better than Soul reaver pure in extra damage potential. Also please remeber this is based on hitting the same god and is only looked at the passsive. Also in most cases base attack speed is higher than 0, mostly around 1, which further expands where in most cases you will be. A statiscical study is required to know what would be releastic values in general for C. So how likely it's to hit an enemy god and also the same enemy god within a certain time

interval for all the theoretically oppurtinities you had in the time interval. Other important factors for comparing the potential of both items: Of course one does physical (Qin's) and the other does magical (Soul reaver) damage and they both have different stats. You could say the damage potential of Soul reaver is beter, because magic-physical ratio is 2:1 so you could say the 100 magical power is comparabe to 50 physical power. Qin's give health and soul reaver gives mana and in my personal opinion I would prefere the health all times. Finally Qin's give also attack speed, which in my opinion makes it's normal stats overall better than Soul Reaver to have. Also because this attack speed increases the overall effectiviness of the passive of Qin's blades. You could also argue that Soul Reaver's passive is easier to proc, because it can be applied by an damaging ability and in most cases mages have a very decent AOE damging ability to do this. But also the control over the passive needs to be taken into account. To effectively use Soul Reaver on your target you need to keep track of your passive all times and have to make sure it procs the right enemy god, which wouldn't always be so easy. In comparison Qin's blade is much more easy to make sure that you hit the right target with it. However if this can be done effectly Soul Reaver is much more effecive in terms of burst power to take the target enemy down, because once the passive is up on procced the right enemy it's immediatly apllied for that 15% while in comparison to Qin's this will take some time to get those 10 AA's on the same target in which within that time interval a lot can happen and naturally the enemy will always regenerate a bit, because of their HP5. So after doing the math and comparing other factors of the two items (for example the stats) in my opinon Qin's blades is always much better to have than Soul Reaver for the potential of its passive.

Gods Misc.
1. Item/Stats prices The purpose of this chapter is to get a statistical formula for calculating item prices, when the stats are known. This will be done for all 3rd tier items (non-actives, consumbles, etc.) using linear algebra. This forumale can then be used when creating new items to get reasonable prices. First of all, a statistical model should be assumed and I assumed the follwing: . In words this means that every item stats has a certain set price per unit of that stats Summing all the individual stats time the stat prices + some constant to accomadate for the passice 3rd tier items has should equal to the total price of the item. This constant (the price

of the passive) will also be assumed to be the same for all items. So in terms of gold every item's passive is even good. This is a decent assumption based on the fact that 3rd tier option items have the same price. Of course, this model can't be 100% accurate, because items prices are/can be changed without changing the stats of the item itself. Therefore a least-square method has to be used to found the nearest solution. Also starter items will not be considerded in this analysis as third tier item, simply ecause of the fact that their passive would be much less valuable then the other passives and therefore the accuracy of this analaysis will be lower. This also is confirmed, because I did it at first with the starter items. The calculations for thrid tier items with starter items can be obtained on request. In the follwing table all the stats of all the 3rd tier items are listed and their cost. All procental stats will just be given as an integer. Lastly the following data is taken from the Hirez website at 20-10-2013 [4]. Also to ensure the validity of this method the same method should be applied for all 1st rank, 2nd rank and 1 to 3rd rank combined to see, which results in the 'best' stats prices.

21 22 A 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 B C D E F G H I

Item prices J K L M N O P Q R S T U

(1.4.3.1.1)

(1.4.3.1.2)

at 10 digits

show all

(1.4.3.1.5)

These are the invidual item stats prices. So for instance physical power per unit cost 26.83 gold and a passive 1250.48 gold. The complete formula to calculate the expected gold an item needs to be based on its invidual stats is:

Accuracy of the model: Calculating the mean of the item prices and substracting it of every item gold price and calculating the norm of the resulting vector:

3090.665980 (1.4.3.1.6) Multiplying matrix A with C to calculate the item gold prices for each item when the values from the items (matrix A) are filled in, in the formula.

(1.4.3.1.7)

Substracting the item gold prices from the real prices and calcualting the length of the total residual vector yields:

(1.4.3.1.8)

at 5 digits

1268.3 (1.4.3.1.9) This is the residual vector, so how far the model is total off from what it has to be. 1268.3 gold off over all items. Calculating the R^2 value to give a value to how well the model fits the reality:

(1.4.3.1.10) For those who don't know what the R^2 means, it's basically a way to quantify the quality of a linear regression. The R^2 value can take values between 0 and 1. Whereby 1 is a linear regression whereby the linear regression curve goes through all your points (in this case through all the components of B, the total item gold prices).

The value of 0.83 could have been better, but it's not bad at all for the assumptions made for this analysis. Sanity check: Let's fill in a random item and see how well the formula performs. For focussed void stone with 50 mp and 50 magic defense this is equal to = 2282.50 gold. The item it self is 2350 gold, so it doesn't perform bad (difference of 67.5 gold, which is), but also isn't perfect. The calculated item price over the real item prices is approximated 97.1%. Also some fun things can be noticed as how cheap defefense and health and mana is (of course you get relatively more always of these stats than other stats), how magical lifesteal and physical pen is even so bad, that it's actually free and finally how magical power vs physical ower prices is: = 2.005231689, which is approximated 2 (the ratio between

magic and physical power), this shows that for this stat this part is atleast thrustworthy. The validty of this equation probaly can be improved by the earlier mentioned changes. So only looking at 1st and/or 2nd tier items and finally looking at all tiers together to improve the amount of data. For other items: For Qin's blade the difference is |2593.4-2650|=56.6 gold. For Transcendence the difference is |2543.73-2700|=156.27 gold This shows that for individual items the difference is quite acceptable to be used as first estimate for expected item prices when designing your own items. Especially if the prices are rounded off on whole numbers, which in reality also will be done.

Validty of this model and assumptions made: It's very important to know all the assumtions made for this model so you know for which situations the model is valid. The assumptions made are: Only 3rd tier items are used in the model Starter items aren't considered as 3rd tier items Every passive has the same value (all are equally powerfull in terms of gold) Linear algebra is used to get the cooficients for the invidual stats prices, which gives the least error in the final anwser (for more information search for least squares methode in the linear algebra). So it's important to know that it still is an approximation. Item stats were taken on 20-10-2013, any changes to the items after this date will make the model outdated. However unless major changes are made, I wouldn't expect major deviations to these results. 2. Ward coverage problem 3. Optimal juking manouver

Refrences

[1] Xeran, 'My publications', http://www.scribd.com/Xeran_ [2] Alex_Error, SMITE Mechanics threads, http://drive.google.com/folderview?id= BwzHowSGBTMxaklyLV9mX21JQ2s&usp=sharing [3] MikalMirkas, Handy Image on Diminishing Returns On Protections, http://www.reddit. com/r/Smite/comments/1nip98/handy_image_on_diminishing_returns_on_protections/ [4] Hirez studios, Gods & Items, http://http://www.hirezstudios.com/smitegame/home

Changelog
13-10-2013: Made overall layout of this document, created chapter for the item stats prices and published first version 20-10-2013: Updated the item stats chapter from the feedback I received on it. No longer starter items are used in the 3rd tier item stats prices analysis. Also the R^2 value is now properly calculated and the accuracy of the model has gone up.