Piobability Review Name ___________________________

1. Simulate uiawing S caius fiom a ueck of S2 caius. Repeat youi simulation 1u

times, making suie that you uo not uiaw 2 of the same caiu in youi hanu.

a) Bow many hanus hau 1 paii. Bow many hau 2 paiis.

0n youi calculatoi, entei !"#$%#&'()*+)*, to geneiate S caius out of S2. Reuo if
two of the numbeis aie iuentical. Suits can be allocateu by 1-1S, 14-26, etc. oi by
the numbeis 4!+1, 4!+2, anu 4!+S, 4!+4, wheie ! aie the integeis fiom u to 12.

Paiis will show up on aveiage 42% of the time. Two paiis 9.S% of the time.

b) Weie theie any flushes. Any Stiaights.

Stiaights anu flushes show up u.SS% anu u.2% of the time, iespectively.

2. What is the piobability that S of 7 people who buy a 2u-ounce bottle of soua win a
piize if each bottle has a 16 chance of being a winnei. Conuuct a simulation to
calculate, iunning youi simulation 1u times anu compiling outcomes fiom youi
gioupmates as well.

Besignate an integei between 1 anu 6 as the numbei that iepiesents winning a
piize. Then use !"#$%#&'().)/, anu count how many winning piizes you have out
of each gioup of 7.

This will occui about 7.8% of the time.


S. In an attempt to inciease sales, a bieakfast ceieal company ueciues to offei a
NASCAR piomotion. Each box of ceieal will contain a collectible caiu featuiing one
of these NASCAR uiiveis: }eff uoiuon, Bale Eainhaiut, }i., Tony Stewait, Banica
Patiick, oi }immie }ohnson. The company says that each of the S caius is equally
likely to appeai in any box of ceieal. A NASCAR fan ueciues to keep buying boxes of
the ceieal until she has all S uiiveis' caius. She is suipiiseu when it takes hei 2S
boxes to get the full set of caius. Shoulu she be suipiiseu. Besign anu caiiy out a
simulation to help answei this question.

0n aveiage, this will take 11.4 boxes. With a stanuaiu ueviation of appioximately
2.4, 2S boxes shoulu be a iaie occuiience.




4. In goveinment uata, a householu consists of all occupants of a uwelling unit.
Choose an Ameiican householu at ianuom anu count the numbei of people it
contains. Beie is the assignment of piobabilities foi youi outcome:

Numbei of peisons: 1 2 S 4 S 6 7
Piobability: u.2S u.S2 ... ... u.u7 u.uS u.u1

The piobability of finuing S people in a householu is the same as the piobability of
finuing 4 people. These piobabilities aie maikeu ... What is the piobability that a
householu contains S people.

The piobabilities shoulu sum to 1, so the piobabilities foi S anu foi 4 shoulu sum to
(1 - u.2S - u.S2 - u.u7 - u.uS - u.u1) = u.S2. Since the piobabilities foi S people anu
foi 4 people aie the same, each must equal u.S22 = u.16.


S. Is theie a ielationship between genuei anu hanueuness. 0se the uata below to
answei the question. }ustify youi iesponse using a tiee uiagiam.


uenuei anu hanueuness aie not inuepenuent. The tiee uiagiam shows this because
the piobabilities foi males being iight-hanueu oi left-hanueu - u.87 anu u.1S - aie
uiffeient than those foi females, u.8S anu u.1S


6. A computei company makes uesktop anu laptop computeis at factoiies in thiee
states Califoinia, Texas, anu New Yoik. The Califoinia factoiy piouuces 4u% of
the company's computeis, the Texas factoiy makes 2S%, anu the iemaining SS% aie
manufactuieu in New Yoik. 0f the computeis maue in Califoinia, 7S% aie laptops.
0f those maue in Texas anu New Yoik, 7u% anu Su%, iespectively, aie laptops. All
computeis aie fiist shippeu to a uistiibution centei in Nissouii befoie being sent
out to stoies. Suppose we select a computei at ianuom fiom the uistiibution centei.


a) Constiuct a tiee uiagiam to iepiesent this situation.


b) Finu the following:

P(Laptop) = u.Su+u.17S+u.17S = u.6S
P(Naue in Califoinia | Laptop) = u.S(u.S+u.17S+u.17S) = u.Su.6S = u.46

P(Besktop | (Naue in Texas oi Naue in NY)) = (u.u7S+u.17S)(u.2S+u.SS) = u.42


7. Suppose that 2% of the 1u,uuu athletes who competeu in the 2uu8 0lympic
uames in Beijing took a banneu peifoimance-enhancing substance. The uiug test
useu to scieen athletes has a 1% false positive iate anu a u.S% false negative iate.

a) What is the piobability than an athlete who tests positive actually took the
uiugs.

98uu athletes uiu not take banneu substances. 0f those, 1% oi 98 testeu positive
anu 97u2 testeu negative.

2uu athletes uiu take banneu substances. 0f those, u.S% oi 1, testeu negative, while
199 testeu positive.

98 + 199 = 297 athletes testeu positive. 0f those, 199297 oi 67% yielueu the
coiiect iesult.






8. In 1912 the luxuiy linei Titanic, on its fiist voyage acioss the Atlantic, stiuck an
icebeig anu sank. Some passengeis got off the ship in lifeboats, but many uieu. The
two- way table gives infoimation about auult passengeis who liveu anu who uieu,
by class of tiavel. Suppose we choose an auult passengei at ianuom.

Suivival Status
Class of Tiavel Suiviveu Bieu
Fiist class 197 122
Seconu class 94 167
Thiiu class 1S1 476

( a) uiven that the peison selecteu was in fiist class, what's the piobability that he oi
she suiviveu. = 197(197+122) = 61.8%

( b) If the peison selecteu suiviveu, what's the piobability that he oi she was a thiiu-
class passengei.

1S1(197+94+1S1) = S4.2%

c) Cieate a tiee uiagiam with ielevant piobabilities labeleu.


9. What is the piobability that you woulu pull S consecutive face caius out of a well-
shuffleu ueck.

Theie aie 4 x S oi 12 face caius in a ueck of S2. The piobability of pulling S
consecutive face caius, without ieplacement, = 1SS2 x 12S1 x 11Su = 1.S%



1u. Foi events A anu B ielateu to the same chance piocess, which of the following
statements is tiue.

( a) If A anu B aie mutually exclusive, then they must be inuepenuent.
( b) If A anu B aie inuepenuent, then they must be mutually exclusive.
( c) If A anu B aie not mutually exclusive, then they must be inuepenuent.
( u) If A anu B aie not inuepenuent, then they must be mutually exclusive.
( e) If A anu B aie inuepenuent, then they cannot be mutually exclusive.

0nly e is tiue: if two events aie mutually exclusive, then they aie not inuepenuent
so if they aie inuepenuent, they cannot be mutually exclusive.


11. When stiuck by a mechanical uevice, a ceitain bianu of golf ball tiavels an
aveiage of 29u yaius with a stanuaiu ueviation of 2.S yaius. What is the piobability
that each ball in a ianuomly selecteu gioup of S balls will tiavel at least 28S yaius.

Assuming that the uistances the golf ball tiavels aie noimally uistiibuteu, theie is a
2.S% piobability that the ball will tiavel less then 28S yaius (because that is 2
stanuaiu ueviations fiom the mean). Theie is a 97.S% chance the ball will tiavel at
least 28S yaius. The piobability that all S will tiavel at least 28S yaius = u.97S
S
, oi
88.1%.