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On
“Indian Primary Aluminium Market”
Table of content
1. Introduction on Aluminium
2. Research Overview
3. Global Aluminium Industry
1. Global Production
2. Global Consumption
3. Top Global Companies in Primary Aluminium
4. Indian Aluminium Industry
1. History
2. Features of Indian Aluminium Industry
3. Primary Aluminium Production
4. Consumption
5. Analysis of Indian Primary Aluminium Market
1. Type of Market
2. Profile of Key Players
3. Reasons of Indian Aluminium Industry being an Oligopoly
4. Porters Competitive Framework
6. Pricing of Primary Aluminium
7. Conclusion
1. Challenges Ahead
2. Outlook
8. References
Introduction
Global society faces a great challenge to shift human economic activity and lifestyles
on to a sustainable path in the 21st century, including meeting threats from climate change.
The story of the aluminium industry over the decades ahead must be one of how it is part of
the solution for a sustainable future. The metal aluminium has a vital role to play in
successfully addressing this sustainability challenge.
Aluminium is the third most abundant element in the earth's crust and constitutes 7.3%
by mass. The existence of was first established in 1808 but there were a few historical
mentions of aluminium use. The aluminium metal was extracted from the ore after many
years of research. It was possible only in the year 1854 to develop a viable commercial
production process of aluminium. Primary aluminium is the hot molten metal that is produced
in the smelter. Secondary aluminium is the finished goods made from primary aluminium.
Aluminium is a young material, and in the little more than a century since its first
commercial production, it has become the world’s second most used metal after steel. The
demand for aluminium products is increasing year by year, so why is aluminium a metal in
such demand and what is its role in the lives of future generations?
Why Aluminium?
Modern life is full of advantages brought about by the use of aluminium. Some of the
major benefits of this unique metal are:
Strength
Pure aluminium is soft enough to carve but mixed with small amounts of other metal to
form alloys, it can provide the strength of steel, with only one-third of the weight.
Durability
Aluminium sprayed on a polymer forms a thin insulating sheet.
Flexibility
Its combination of properties ensure aluminium and its alloys can be easily shaped by
any of the main industrial metalworking processes - rolling, extrusion, forging and casting.
Impermeability
Aluminium has excellent barrier function which makes it ideal for food and drink
packaging and containers. It keeps out air, light and microorganisms while preserving the
contents inside.
Lightweight
Aluminium used in transport reducing the weight of the vehicles, hence in providing fuel
efficiency, reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.
Corrosion-resistant
The metal's natural coating of aluminium oxide provides a highly effective barrier to the
ravages of air, temperature, moisture and chemical attack, making aluminium a useful
construction material.
Recyclable
Once made, aluminium can be recycled again and again, using only a very small
fraction of the energy required to make "new" metal. Recycling saves about 95% of the
energy required for primary production.
Other
Aluminium is a superb conductor of electricity which has seen it replace copper in many
electrical applications. It is also non-magnetic and non-combustible, properties invaluable in
advanced industries such as electronics or in offshore structures.
Research Overview
Aluminium is the second most important metal after steel. The Indian economy is
growing at a consistent rate of about 8% and due to this there is an increase in the domestic
demand for the metal which is most widely used in various sectors for various purposes.
The interesting part about the topic “Indian Primary Aluminium Market” is that even
though there is a huge growth in demand for the metal both in domestic market as well as in
the international market which is mainly driven by China. The production of primary
aluminium in India is dominated by the old players; there has been no new entrant into the
market including the major metal industries like ArcelorMittal etc. This makes the research
interesting.
The objective of the research is
1. To study the global as well as domestic production and consumption patterns.
2. To study the type of Indian Primary aluminium markets and its key players.
3. To study the reasons for the primary aluminium market being an Oligopolistic market
and the barrier to entry.
Global Aluminium Industry
Global Production
Global production of primary aluminium rose from 32 million tons (MT) in 2005 to
34 MT in 2006, a jump of 6%. In 2007, it further increased to 38 MT, an increase of 12%
YoY. China alone accounted for 29% of global primary aluminium production.
Primary aluminium production is concentrated in relatively few countries. China
alone produced 26 percent of the world total in 2006.The top five producers—China, Russia,
Canada, the United States, and Australia—accounted for 59 percent of world output that year.
Production is found where energy is cheap because making aluminium uses large quantities
of electricity. The world’s largest aluminium smelter, now being planned for construction in
Dubai, will have its own 2,600-megawatt power plant.
Aluminium Producing Countries
The ore of the metal i.e. bauxite generally occurs in the tropical and sub tropical areas
of earth and is present in almost all continents except Antarctica with the estimated deposits
of 65 billion tons. The major producers of primary aluminium in the world are
• United States of America
• Russia
• Canada
• European Union
• China
• Australia
• Brazil
• Norway
• South Africa
• Venezuela
• Bahrain
• United Arab Emirates
• India
• New Zealand
The global production of aluminium figures around 38 million tons and the above-mentioned
countries share more than 90% of the aluminium production. China and India reported the
greatest increases in aluminium output, at 12 percent and 11 percent respectively.
(The above chart shows the Global Aluminium Production from 1997-2007)
Global Consumption
Asia showed the largest annual increase in consumption of primary aluminium, driven
largely by increased industrial consumption in China, which has emerged as the largest
aluminium consuming nation, accounting for 30% of global primary aluminium consumption
in 2007. As far as global consumption is concerned, it increased by 8.2% in 2006 and touched
34.7 MT. In 2007, the corresponding figures were 10% and 37.8 MT respectively.
Globally, newer packaging applications and increased usage in automobiles is
expected to keep the demand growth for aluminium over 5% in the long-term. Asia will
continue to be the high consumption growth area led by China, which is expected to continue
to register double-digit growth rates in aluminium consumption in the medium-term.
The following are the various applications areas of Aluminium.
1. Transportation
2. Construction
3. Packaging
4. Electrical
5. Engineering
6. Consumer Durables
Aluminium is the second most consumed metal on the earth, and is consumed and
produced more than all non-ferrous metals combined together. By 2030, it is expected that
primary aluminium consumption will cross more than 70,000 kilo tonnes (KT). At the
beginning of this century, consumption was at 25,059 KT and since then it has grown steadily
mainly on demand from Asia and in particular China. The total global consumption of
aluminium stood at 33,970 KT in 2006 and has reached 37,800 KT in 2008. The overall
demand saw a drop only in the 2001 when consumption was at 23,722 KT.
The Indian aluminium sector is characterised by large integrated players like Hindalco
and National Aluminium Company (Nalco). The other producers of primary aluminium
include Indian Aluminium (Indal), now merged with Hindalco, Bharat Aluminium (Balco)
and Madras Aluminium (Malco) the erstwhile PSUs, which have been acquired by Sterlite
Industries. Consequently, there are only three main primary metal producers in the sector
namely Balco (Vedanta), National Aluminium Company (Nalco) and Hindalco (Aditya Birla
Group).
History
Aluminium production in India commenced in 1938 with the commissioning of
Aluminium Corporation of India's (Indal) plant in technical and financial collaboration with
Alcan, Canada having a capacity of 2,500 ton per annum. The plant started with sheet
production using imported aluminium ingots.
In 1959, Hindustan Aluminium Corporation (Hindalco) was set up at Renukoot in UP
with an initial capacity of 20,000 ton per annum. Malco, a public sector undertaking was
commissioned in 1965 with a capacity of 10,000 ton per annum. This was followed in 1975
by Balco, a PSU with a similar capacity of 10,000 ton. Finally in 1987, National Aluminium
Company (Nalco) with a capacity of 0.218mn ton was commissioned in technical
collaboration with Pechinery of France.
In the 1970s, the government regulated and controlled the aluminium industry through
price distribution controls and barriers to entry. The 1970 Aluminium Control Order
compelled the Indian companies to sell 50 % of the aluminium produced for electrical
purposes.
The government decontrolled the industry in 1989 with the removal of the Aluminium
Control Order. The industry was de-licensed in 1991 and was allowed liberal import of
capital goods and technologies.
The demand for aluminium grew 6 % in the 1980. Aluminium demand post
liberalization registered a growth rate of 12%. This coupled with the increase in the global
aluminium prices ($1800/ ton in 1994) led to increased investments in this sector.
The downstream capacity in the aluminium industry spurted due to sufficient duty
differential between aluminium ingots or primary metal and value added downstream
products. In March 1993 while the duty on aluminium ingots was 25% the duty on
downstream products was 70%. However with the change in the tariff structure undertaken in
the 1997 budget, duty on semi-fabricated metal was lowered to 25%. This change adversely
affected the fortunes of the downstream producers.
Features of Indian Aluminium Industry
• Highly concentrated industry with only five primary plants in the country.
• Controlled by two private groups and one public sector unit.
• Bayer-Hall-Heroult technology used by all producers.
• Electricity, coal and furnace oil are primary energy inputs.
• All plants have their own captive power units for cheaper and un-interrupted power
supply.
• Energy cost is 40% of manufacturing cost for metal and 30% for rolled products.
• Plants have set internal target of 1 – 2% reduction in specific energy consumption in
the next 5 – 8 years.
• Energy management is a critical focus in all the plants.
• Two plants have declared formal energy policy.
• Each plant has an Energy Management Cell.
Consumption
The consumption of primary aluminium has risen sharply since 2002 and reached
1,080 KT by 2006. From the end of the 1990s till 2002, the consumption remained almost
stagnant, around 500- 600 KT. The reason for this growth after 2002 lies in the demand
generated from automobile, construction and packaging sectors.
The per capita consumption of aluminium in India continues to remain abysmally low
at under 1 kg as against nearly 25 to 30 kgs in the US and Europe, 15 kgs in Japan, 10 kgs in
Taiwan and 3 kgs in China. The key consumer industries in India are power, transportation,
consumer durables, packaging and construction. Of this, power is the biggest consumer
(about 44% of total) followed by infrastructure (17%) and transportation (about 10% to 12%).
However, internationally, the pattern of consumption is in favour of transportation, primarily
due to large-scale aluminium consumption by the aviation space.
(The sector wise Indian consumption pattern of Aluminium)
• Time to setup.
It requires around 3 years to setup a plant of the size mentioned in the above example.
The new player would require about 3 years to start manufacture primary aluminium and the
market demand supply equation can change by the time the firm starts manufacturing.
• Control over the Bauxite mines.
As the raw material for manufacturing aluminium is bauxite the existing players have
control over the bauxite mines in India and it would be difficult for a new player to get new
bauxite mines.
• Scarcity of power.
About 30-40% of the cost of producing is power. As producing primary Aluminium
requires a large amount of electricity they need to have captive power plants. Setting up of
captive power plants requires huge capital investment and also requires a lot of time. The
basic raw material to generate power is coal. Hence the firms also would need to have coal
mines. Most of the coal blocks are owned by independent power producers and hence the
coal blocks are scarce.
• Government Factor.
The other major hurdles are getting environmental clearance from the government.
The other factor would be in getting bauxite mines allotted to the firm. Hence in these two
cases the government acts as a barrier.
• Land.
Existing players can expand as setting up a new brown field project is easy than
getting land allocated for a new green field project considering the political situations in
India.
• Geographical factors.
The bauxite ore is abundant only in the states like Orissa and hence the firms entering
into the market need to setup the plant in these states.
It represents the strategic challenges facing firm managers as they seek to maximise
profit in oligopolistic markets. Porter’s five structural determinants of the intensity of
competition and of the profitability of the firms in oligopolistic industry (Indian Primary
Aluminium Industry) are
2. Threat of Entry.
Though there are lot of barriers to enter into the aluminium market, other major metal
players who are not into Aluminium business can enter seeing the rate of growth of the
aluminium market.
Conclusion
Challenges Ahead
1. A long-term decline in the real price of Aluminium will erode margins of the firms
manufacturing primary aluminium.
2. Pressures to improve return on investment.
3. Maturing of terminal markets such as the London Metals Exchange (LME) as the firms
are price takers and have little scope to decide the price.
4. Technological changes — particularly on the upstream side. There has been no alternate
method developed to extract metal from the ore.
5. Intense competition from other materials such as steel and plastics which are the
substitutes to aluminium.
6. Need to respond to the changing demands of global customers, such as automakers and
can manufacturers.
7. Reduce the consumption of electricity consumed in producing aluminium i.e. increase the
energy efficiency.
8. Reducing the greenhouse gas emissions and PFC from the production process.
Outlook
The world aluminium market is expected to have a surplus of about 500 KT in the
year 2008 due to the rapid increase in production activities and slightly lesser pace of growth
in aluminium demand. The world aluminium production is expected to reach 40,400 KT
against the expected demand of 39,900 KT in 2008 thus likely to affect the aluminium prices
in the short run. The high energy prices are a major concern and may provide some support to
prices in between or may also result in slight reduction in the anticipated surplus. In the long
term, increasing demand from Asia might benefit aluminium price. Increasing income levels
in India, for instance, are inducing higher demand from the automobiles and construction
sectors, thus promising a better future for aluminium in the domestic market.
References
1. www.commoditywatch.com
2. www.metalworld.co.in
3. www.equitymaster.com
4. www.crnindia.com
5. www.nalco.com
6. www.hindalco.com
7. www.vedantaresources.com
8. www.indiainfoline.com
9. London Metal Exchange Website
10. International aluminium Institute website.
11. Annual Reports of HINDALCO, NALCO and Vedanta (Sterlite Industries).