Weekly Summary Report

2013 Trading Week 43: 14-20 October 2013

Weekly Summary Report

SUPPLY AND DEMAND
TABLE 1. DAILY SUMMARY OF OFFERS AND DEMAND, SYSTEM
DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 OFFER, MW MIN 8,560 8,312 8,456 8,210 8,190 7,546 8,169 7,546 AVE 8,835 8,576 8,616 8,326 8,524 8,272 8,429 8,511 MAX 9,095 8,961 8,857 8,493 8,977 8,803 8,818 9,095 MIN 5,453 5,784 5,610 5,716 5,706 5,505 5,620 5,453 RTD DEMAND, MW AVE 7,169 6,638 7,109 7,131 7,182 6,872 6,664 6,967 MAX 8,523

Week 43: 14-20 Oct 2013

GRAPH 1. HOURLY PROFILE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND, SYSTEM

10000 OFFER AVAILABLE SUPPLY SYSTEM RTD

9000

MEGAWATT

7,591 8,311 8,225 8,327 7,777 7,812 8,523

8000

7000

6000

5000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM VALUES OF ENERGY OFFERS AND EX-ANTE DEMAND FOR THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF ENERGY OFFERS, AVAILABLE SUPPLY, AND DEMAND AT EX-ANTE

FORECAST PERFORMANCE
TABLE 2. DAILY SUMMARY OF FORECAST ERRORS, SYSTEM
FORECAST ERRORS, % DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 MINIMUM 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.01 0.00 MAPE 0.60 0.52 0.77 0.55 0.59 0.63 0.48 0.60 MAXIMUM 1.71
MEGAWATT 9000

GRAPH 2. HOURLY PROFILE OF PROJECTED AND ACTUAL DEMAND, SYSTEM

10000 SYSTEM RTD SYSTEM ACTUAL

1.27 3.21 2.26 1.44 1.64 2.07 3.21

8000

7000

6000

5000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM FORECAST ERRORS FOR THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF PROJECTED (RTD) AND ACTUAL DEMAND

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX

TABLE 3. DAILY SUMMARY OF EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX, SYSTEM
GENERATION MIX, % DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 COAL 39.0 40.9 40.2 39.4 41.0 44.0 44.7 41.3 GENERATION MIX GEO 14.6 16.2 14.4 14.5 14.3 15.3 14.5 14.8 HYDRO 13.3 11.9 11.9 11.6 10.9 8.8 8.9 11.1 NAT GAS 32.5 30.9 32.5 32.6 32.4 31.4 30.7 31.9 DIESEL / OIL 0.7 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.4 1.1 1.0 WIND AND BIO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 GENERATION DURING THE TRADING WEEK
HYDRO 11.1% GEO 14.8% NAT GAS 31.9% COAL 41.3%

GRAPH 3. TOTAL EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX FOR THE WEEK, SYSTEM

DIESEL/OIL 1.0%

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) SHARE OF RESOURCE TYPE TO THE SCHEDULED (EX-ANTE)

WEEKLY GENERATION MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE (IN %) BASED ON THE SCHEDULED

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Weekly Summary Report

CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX
TABLE 4. DAILY % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM
AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, % DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 COAL 39.9 41.0 41.2 42.7 42.3 43.6 42.5 41.9 GEO 12.2 12.6 12.3 12.5 12.4 12.8 12.6 12.5 HYDRO 11.4 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.6 7.7 7.4 9.2 NAT GAS 27.8 28.7 28.5 29.5 28.6 27.0 29.2 28.5 DIESEL / OIL 8.6 8.3 8.6 5.9 7.1 8.9 8.3 8.0 WIND AND BIO -

Week 43: 14-20 Oct 2013

GRAPH 4. HOURLY PROFILE OF % SHARE OF ENERGY OFFERS, SYSTEM

10000 OTHERS NAT GAS GEO DIESEL/OIL HYDRO COAL

8000

MEGAWATT

6000

4000

2000

DAILY PERCENTAGE (%) MIX OF ENERGY OFFERS BY RESOURCE TYPE

HOURLY PROFLE OF ENERGY OFFER MIX BY RESOURCE TYPE

HVDC FLOW
TABLE 5. DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS
HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 RTD NO FLOW VL 50.0 91.7 87.5 79.2 70.8 87.5 100.0 81.0 LV 50.0 8.3 12.5 20.8 29.2 12.5 19.0 NO FLOW 8.3 1.2 ACTUAL VL 41.7 100.0 91.7 83.3 70.8 87.5 100.0 82.1 LV 50.0
MEGAWATT 300

GRAPH 5. HOURLY PROFLE OF EX-ANTE HVDC FLOWS

400 LUZON TO VISAYAS VISAYAS TO LUZON

200

8.3 16.7 29.2 12.5 16.7

100

-100

-200

DAILY SUMMARY OF HVDC FLOWS INDICATING THE FLOW OF POWER, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON (VL), LUZON TO VISAYAS (LV), OR NO INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO GRIDS (NO FLOW)

SCHEDULED HVDC FLOW AT EX-ANTE, WHICH CAN EITHER BE FROM VISAYAS TO LUZON OR FROM LUZON TO VISAYAS. ZERO INDICATES NO POWER FLOW BETWEEN BOTH GRIDS.

MARKET PRICES
TABLE 6. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM
DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 RTD MIN 102 360 193 1,182 193 1,353 244 102 FOR THE WEEK MAX 9,866 2,119 14,662 7,199 8,248 6,857 3,278 14,662 AVE 2,956 1,525 3,263 2,576 2,733 2,174 1,898 2,463 MIN 102 1,016 196 1,155 190 1,353 190 102 RTX MAX 9,045 2,231 14,187 8,178 8,265 2,552 2,691 14,187 AVE 3,010
LWAP, PESOS PER MWh 16000

GRAPH 6. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, SYSTEM

20000 RTD LWAP RTX LWAP

1,611 3,124 2,551 2,723 1,961 1,752 2,408

12000

8000

4000

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX SYSTEM (LUZON AND VISAYAS) PRICES DURING THE WEEK

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Weekly Summary Report

GRAPH 7. EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICE DISTRIBUTION, SYSTEM
100 RTD RTX

Week 43: 14-20 Oct 2013

GRAPH 8. HOURLY EX-ANTE LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES PER GRID

20000 LUZON VISAYAS

80 PERCENT OF TIME LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

16000

60

12000

40

8000

20

4000

0
0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 10000 Above 10000

DISTRIBUTION OF THE HOURLY RTD AND RTX SYSTEM LWAP DURING THE WEEK. THE WEEKLY PERCENT OF TIME IS CALCULATED BASED ON A 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD AND THE TOTAL NUMBER OF HOURS DURING THE WEEK.

HOURLY TREND OF EX-ANTE PRICES IN LUZON AND VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

TABLE 7. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 102 347 192 1,179 193 1,393 197 102 MAX 9,052 1,869 14,173 8,132 8,228 6,861 3,278 14,173 AVE 2,936 1,497 3,128 2,507 2,703 2,111 1,870 2,408 MIN 102 1,013 195 1,152 190 1,393 190 102 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 9,052 2,045 14,173 8,132 8,228 2,546 2,541 14,173 AVE 2,942 1,563 3,101 2,510 2,679 1,949 1,730 2,369

TABLE 8. SUMMARY OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 RTD, PhP/MWh MIN 104 360 197 1,194 196 1,147 244 104 MAX 13,940 4,409 17,219 8,252 9,086 8,711 3,278 17,219 AVE 3,062 1,696 4,040 2,939 2,888 2,490 2,043 2,759 MIN 104 0 200 1,167 193 1,147 192 0 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 9,156 4,234 14,260 8,395 8,444 3,297 3,417 14,260 AVE 3,358 1,913 3,261 2,765 2,951 2,022 1,873 2,616

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN LUZON FOR THE WEEK

DAILY MINIMUM, AVERAGE, AND MAXIMUM PRICES IN VISAYAS FOR THE WEEK

GRAPH 9. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, LUZON

RTD LWAP 20000 RTX LWAP

GRAPH 10. HOURLY PROFILE OF LOAD WEIGHTED AVERAGE PRICES, VISAYAS

RTD LWAP 20000 RTX LWAP

16000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

16000

12000

12000

8000

8000

4000

4000

GRAPH 11. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, LUZON
MAXIMUM 20000 MINIMUM

GRAPH 12. HOURLY PROFILE OF MAX AND MIN NODAL PRICES, VISAYAS
MAXIMUM 20000 MINIMUM

16000 LWAP, PESOS PER MWh LWAP, PESOS PER MWh

16000

12000

12000

8000

8000

4000

4000

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN LUZON DURING THE WEEK

HOURLY TREND OF RTD AND RTX PRICES IN VISAYAS DURING THE WEEK

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Weekly Summary Report

CONGESTIONS
TABLE 9. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, LUZON
EQUIPMENT MEXICO-CRUZ NA DAAN LINE ZAPOTE BALINTAWAK-SAN JOSE LINE 3 AMADEO-CALACA LINE 1 CALAUAN-MAKBAN LINE DASMA 500/230 kV TR1 EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 51 1 12 34 3 30.36 0.60 7.14 20.24 1.79 1 0.60 -

Week 43: 14-20 Oct 2013

TABLE 10. CONSTRAINED EQUIPMENT, VISAYAS

EQUIPMENT BABATNGON TR1 TONGONAN TR6 CEBU TR2 CEDC TR50 CEDC TR60 CEBU-NEGROS SUBMARINE CABLE NEGROS-PANAY SUBMARINE CABLE EX-ANTE EX-POST INTERVALS % OF TIME INTERVALS % OF TIME 2 2 1 2 17 1.19 1.19 0.60 1.19 10.12 1 1 24 0.60 0.60 14.29

PRICING CONDITIONS
TABLE 11. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, LUZON
DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 AP AP VALID RTD VALID 9 14 11 9 14 18 75 PEN 15 10 13 15 10 6 24 93 VALID 24 22 24 24 24 24 24 166 RTX MRR 2 2 PEN/MRR

TABLE 12. FREQUENCY OF PRICING CONDITIONS, VISAYAS

DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 AP RTD VALID 21 15 24 23 24 23 16 146 PEN 3 9 1 1 8 22 VALID 24 21 24 24 24 24 24 165 RTX MRR 3 3

- TRADING HOURS AFFECTED BY MARKET INTERVENTION (MI) - TRADING HOURS WITH NO PEN OR MI

- TRADING HOURS ISSUED WITH PRICING ERRORS

TABLE 13. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 UGEN VOLL CONT 12 4 13 12 10 1 52 BC PSM 3 7 1 3 5 24 43 ERR 3 3

TABLE 14. REASON FOR EX-ANTE PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 UGEN VOLL CONT BC 2 1 3 PSM 3 6 1 1 8 19 ERR 3 3

TABLE 15. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-POST PEN DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 UGEN VOLL CONT UGEN - UNDER-GENERATION - NODAL VALUE OF LOST LOAD - CONTINGENCY CVC VOLL CONT BC PSM 1 1 ERR 1 1

TABLE 16. REASON FOR EX-POST PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 BC PSM ERR UGEN - BASE CASE CVC - SUBJECTED TO THE PRICE SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY - ERRONEOUS INPUT OR SNAPSHOT INFORMATION VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR 3 3

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Weekly Summary Report

MUST-RUN UNITS
TABLE 17. INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS
DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 LUZON 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 168 DAILY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS PER GRID (LUZON AND VISAYAS). MRU EVENTS REFER TO OCCURRENCES IN WHICH GENERATING UNITS ARE DESIGNATED BY THE SYSTEM OPERATOR AS MUST-RUN UNITS FOR CERTAIN TRADING INTERVALS. SOURCE: NGCP LUZON SYSTEM OPERATIONS AND VISAYAS SYSTEM OPERATIONS VISAYAS 6 10 3 5 3 8 35

Week 43: 14-20 Oct 2013

GRAPH 13. HOURLY PROFILE OF MRU EVENTS

LUZON HOURLY FREQUENCY OF MRU EVENTS 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 VISAYAS

HOURLY TOTAL OF MRU EVENTS

TABLE 18. MRU EVENTS, LUZON

DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 THERMAL RESERVE TOTAL 27 24 37 55 38 30 24 235 THERMAL RESERVE 1 1 VOLTAGE COM/REG 27 24 37 55 37 30 24 234 OTHERS -

TABLE 19. MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

DATE Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-16 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 VOLTAGE COM/REG TOTAL 13 40 5 5 3 12 78 THERMAL 2 5 7 RESERVE 38 38 VOLTAGE 13 2 5 3 3 7 33 COM/REG OTHERS -

- THERMAL LIMITS OF TRANSMISSION LINE AND/OR POWER EQUIPMENT - INADEQUATE RESERVE LEVEL

- SYSTEM VOLTAGE REQUIREMENT - COMMERCIAL OPERATION OR REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS

OTHER NOTABLE MARKET HIGHLIGHTS THAT AFFECTED MARKET CONDITIONS

- THE BOHOL GRID WAS ON TOTAL POWER FAILURE ON 15 OCTOBER 2013 STARTING AT 0813H DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF A MAGNITUDE 7.2 EARTHQUAKE. SEVERAL PLANTS IN THE VISAYAS GRID ALSO BECAME UNAVAILABLE AS A RESULT OF THE SAID EVENT.

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