World Economic Turndown and Challenges for China

Fu Jun
Peking University
• China in historical and comparative perspectives
• Growth and explain growth: three hypotheses
• China’s connection with the world: trade and finance
• Structural features of China’s economy:
export/investment/consumption
• Comments on length of global slowdown and impact on China
• Comments on China’s stimulus package: state vs non-state sector
 GDP per capita, China and W Europe, 400-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective

 GDP as % of World Total (1700-2003)

1700 1820 1952 1978 2003

China 22.3 32.9 5.2 4.9 15.1

India 24.4 16 4 3.3 5.5

Japan 4.1 3 3.4 7.6 6.6

Europe 24.9 26.6 29.3 27.6 21.1

USA 0.1 1.8 27.5 21.6 20.6

Russia 4.4 5.4 9.2 9 3.8

资料来源：安格斯•麦迪森，《中国经济的中长期表现》，上海人民出版社，2008年，36页
GDP per capita, China and UK, 1700-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective

GDP per capita, China and USA, 1700-1998

资料来源：Angus Maddison, The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective

 （20 years）
Fastest Growth Rates in Asia（ ）

average

12.45 10.32 6.7 10.53 7.06 1.78 3.51 6.59 9.72 9.68

China 10.01 15.12 2.06 5.27 0.29 6.57 9.03 10.68 12.41 15.15 8.25

3.86 4 4.25 4.38 10.46 6.65 5.19 1.3 5.12 5.9

India 7.25 7.35 7.84 4.8 6.51 6.06 4.37 5.79 3.53 8.98 5.68

12.46 11.59 7.37 5.65 8.6 7.52 7.31 5.83 9.12 13.13

Japan 12.04 8.92 8.47 11.67 5.82 10.64 11.08 12.88 12.48 10.71 9.66

7.71 5.24 3.88 1.99 5.05 3.03 8.81 8.63 6.02 12.04

S. Korea 7.27 12.76 15.16 8.59 9.76 7.31 16.92 8.7 6.64 11.76 8.36

8.27 8.47 5.3 7.04 8.61 9.38 5.38 7.21 8.49 13.86

Taiwan 12.74 6.88 10.08 11.27 8.44 9.04 12.57 13.98 15.66 10.74 9.67

6.63 17.48 15.71 8.57 14.47 1.72 1.7 3.33 11.29 9.18

Hong Kong 7.08 10.33 12.36 2.33 0.33 16.24 11.73 8.5 11.52 10.12 9.03

7.54 11.13 11.84 13.88 13.69 13.72 12.52 13.41 11.54 6.76

Singapore 3.97 7.14 7.76 8.62 9.25 9.7 9.58 6.85 8.18 8.34 9.77
 Big Technology Breakthroughs in History

资料来源：Kremer（1990，683）also adapted from Fogel (2003).

Where is China? (GDP per capita)
USA=1