B1

B2
B3
ECM

TIEMPO

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

AO 1

AO 2

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

PERIODO

VENTAS

T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6

9000
6540
5500
4020
6310
8010
9150
7220
4750
4200
6350
7820
8500
7890
6060
3960
5000
8540
10270
8430
7030
5650
7110
9030
9100
7560
5900
4150
6030
7950

PROMEDIO MOVIL
PONDERADO

5499.999937
4019.999951
6309.999962
8009.999958
9149.999942
7219.999931
4749.999934
4199.999952
6349.999964
7819.999957
8499.999943
7889.999934
6059.999934
3959.999944
4999.99996
8539.999964
10269.99995
8429.999924
7029.999925
5649.999938
7109.999949
9029.999949
9099.999935
7559.999927
5899.999933
4149.999946
6029.999959

-4.0357E-09
-4.0357E-09
1
0.99999999
3045137.01

ECM
RESTRICCIONES

SUMAXMENOSY2(VENTAS,PRONO

UMAXMENOSY2(VENTAS,PRONOSTICO)/CONTAR(VENTAS)

Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de correlacin
0.73418116mltiple
Coeficiente de determinacin
0.53902198 R^2
R^2 ajustado 0.51806843
Error tpico
309.928513
Observaciones
24
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F
Valor crtico de F
Regresin
1 2470995.77 2470995.77
25.724618 4.4269E-05
Residuos
22 2113225.04 96055.6835
Total
23
4584220.8
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%
Intercepcin 6256.89517 155.143821 40.3296445 4.0476E-22 5935.14658 6578.64376
Variable X 1
46.3539855 9.13929326 5.07194421 4.4269E-05 27.4002514 65.3077196

Inferior 95.0%Superior 95.0%

5935.14658 6578.64376
27.4002514 65.3077196

TIEMPO

AO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

AO 1

AO 2

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

AO 6

PERIODO

VENTAS

T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6

9000
6540
5500
4020
6310
8010
9150
7220
4750
4200
6350
7820
8500
7890
6060
3960
5000
8540
10270
8430
7030
5650
7110
9030
9100
7560
5900
4150
6030
7950

PROMEDIO DE MOVIL
SIMPLE

6563.333333
6588.333333
6701.666667
6576.666667
6606.666667
6613.333333
6581.666667
6473.333333
6585
6803.333333
6763.333333
6538.333333
6658.333333
6953.333333
7043.333333
7205
7486.666667
7838.333333
7920
7725
7580
7391.666667
7141.666667
6961.666667
6781.666667

PMC

6575.83333
6645
6639.16667
6591.66667
6610
6597.5
6527.5
6529.16667
6694.16667
6783.33333
6650.83333
6598.33333
6805.83333
6998.33333
7124.16667
7345.83333
7662.5
7879.16667
7822.5
7652.5
7485.83333
7266.66667
7051.66667
6871.66667

0.61132936
0.94958616
1.20647672
1.38811631
1.09228442
12000
0.71996969
0.64343164
10000
0.97255903
8000
1.16818125
1.25307125
6000
1.1863175
0.91841374
4000
0.5818538
0.71445582
2000
1.19873669
1.39807147
1.100163130
0.89222634
0.72227549
0.92910813
1.20627853
1.25229358
1.07208698
0.85859811

Intercepcin
Variable X 1

12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0

6256.89517
46.3539855

INDICE
Estimacion
ESTACIONAL in orregido tiempo
Estacional
Estimacio x regre
1.322888152
1.3209131
1
6303.249155 8326.04441
1.112713008 1.11105175
2
6349.60314 7054.73767
0.847301967 0.84603696
3
6395.957126 5411.21613
0.639722572 0.63876748
4
6442.311111 4115.13882
0.891427286
0.8900964
5
6488.665097 5775.53745
1.194918297 1.19313431
6
6535.019082 7797.15546
1.322888152
1.3209131
7
6581.373068 8693.42193
1.112713008 1.11105175
8
6627.727053 7363.74773
0.847301967 0.84603696
9
6674.081039 5646.51924
0.639722572 0.63876748
10
6720.435024 4292.79533
0.891427286
0.8900964
11
6766.78901 6023.09455
1.194918297 1.19313431
12
6813.142995 8128.99464
1.322888152
1.3209131
13
6859.496981 9060.79945
VENTAS
1.112713008 1.11105175
14
6905.850966
7672.75779
0.847301967 0.84603696
15
6952.204952
5881.82235
Estimacion Estacional
0.639722572 0.63876748
16
6998.558937 4470.45184
0.891427286
0.8900964
17
7044.912923 6270.65164
1.194918297 1.19313431
18
7091.266908 8460.83383
1.322888152
1.3209131
19
7137.620894 9428.17698
1.112713008 1.11105175
20
7183.974879 7981.76785
10.847301967
3 5 7 9 110.84603696
13 15 17 19 21 232125 27 29
7230.328865 6117.12546
0.639722572 0.63876748
22
7276.68285 4648.10835
0.891427286
0.8900964
23
7323.036836 6518.20873
1.194918297 1.19313431
24
7369.390821 8792.67301
1.322888152
1.3209131
25
7415.744807
9795.5545
1.112713008 1.11105175
26
7462.098792 8290.77791
0.847301967 0.84603696
27
7508.452778 6352.42857
0.639722572 0.63876748
28
7554.806763 4825.76486
0.891427286
0.8900964
29
7601.160749 6765.76583
1.194918297 1.19313431
30
7647.514734 9124.51219

erro
673.955589
-514.737668
88.7838681
-95.1388205
534.462548
212.844539
456.578067
-143.747727
-896.519242
-92.795331
326.905454
-308.994643
-560.799454
217.242213
178.177648
-510.451842
-1270.65164
79.1661747
841.823024
448.232153
912.874537
1001.89165
591.791266
237.326993
-695.554497
-730.777906
-452.428573
-675.764862
-735.765828
-1174.51219

mape
0.07488395
0.07870607
0.01614252
0.02366637
0.08470088
0.02657235
0.04989924
0.01990966
0.18874089
0.02209413
0.05148117
0.03951338
0.06597641
0.02753387
0.02940225
0.12890198
0.25413033
0.00927004
0.08196914
0.05317107
0.12985413
0.17732596
0.08323365
0.02628206
0.07643456
0.09666374
0.07668281
0.16283491
0.12201755
0.14773738
0.08085775

454216.136
264954.866
7882.57524
9051.39517
285650.216
45302.7978
208463.531
20663.4091
803746.752
8610.97346
106867.176
95477.6895
314496.028
47194.1791
31747.2741
260561.083
1614555.59
6267.28321
708666.004
200912.063
833339.921
1003786.87
350216.902
56324.1014
483796.059
534036.349
204691.614
456658.149
541351.354
1379478.88
377965.574
ECM

Tiempo

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30

Ao

Primero

Segundo

Tercero

Cuarto

Quinto

Bimestre

Ventas

B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
B6

9000
6540
5500
4020
6310
8010
9150
7220
4750
4200
6350
7820
8500
7890
6060
3960
5000
8540
10270
8430
7030
5650
7110
9030
9100
7560
5900
4150
6030
7950

Li

Ti

6636.62069
6567.21698
6564.19634
6564.05823
6564.04535
6564.03799
6564.03093
6672.06472
7222.60771
5736.60937
6809.95619
6615.09543
6417.79437
6208.51061
7823.71632
7332.18654
6465.7466
5262.51278
6932.53163
7476.33482
8330.40345
8496.69604
9189.04159
7549.8649
7349.1233
6658.84231
7439.91389
7145.64634
6769.57789
6412.44887
6467.14278

17.0567297
16.1921253
15.9999976
15.8386166
15.6801017
15.523227
15.3679241
16.2945828
21.6370669
6.56071279
17.2285739
15.1076805
12.9835931
10.7609196
26.8053675
21.622016
12.7413964
0.58164425
17.2760164
22.5412881
30.8565615
32.2109218
38.8122681
22.0323785
19.8046387
12.7037824
20.3874604
17.2409103
13.3078167
9.60344829
10.054353

Si
1.37125444
0.9964449
0.83798883
0.61249365
0.96140173
1.22041646
1.37053456
0.9963286
0.83790667
0.61243467
0.96131011
1.22030132
1.37129359
0.99926732
0.8291257
0.61626027
0.9600811
1.21869082
1.36933598
1.00743877
0.82678846
0.6128851
0.95123513
1.2303933
1.37318144
1.01144869
0.82731397
0.61464079
0.94280481
1.22890607
1.36734234
1.01561404
0.82586129
0.61321682
0.94063302
1.22924773

Pronostico

9123.88473
6560.0044
5514.13101
4030.14505
6325.75941
8029.80477
9017.29353
6663.80365
6070.00105
3517.31648
6563.04171
8090.84558
8818.48459
6214.71478
6509.06927
4531.86001
6219.87391
6414.08485
9516.6217
7554.65856
6912.99325
5227.24001
8777.85878
9316.41168
10118.8751
6747.92655
6172.01153
4402.60268
6394.93731
7892.09905

alfa
beta
gamma

615902.336

0.9570127
0.01
0.88773572