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MaLLhew 1. Mason and Penrlk l. ChrlsLensen
1hls essay summarlzes Lhe currenL sLaLe of roboLlcs, and prevlews Lhe flndlngs of a
roboLlcs roadmapplng efforL currenLly under way.
8oboLlcs orlglnaLed wlLh Lhe goal of bulldlng human-llke machlnes, buL lL has become
much more Lhan LhaL. Lven Lhough we are sLlll decades away from human-llke
machlnes, Lhe developlng roboLlcs Lechnologles are provlng useful ln ways LhaL nobody
expecLed: roboL-asslsLed nonlnvaslve surgery, dlsposal of roadslde bombs, auLomaLed
lab sclence for drug dlscovery, even auLo-focus feaLures ln dlglLal cameras. 1he broad
lmpacL of roboLlcs ls proven, even Lhough roboLlcs ls sLlll ln Lhe early sLages of lLs
developmenL.
8oboLlcs Lhus affords a unlque opporLunlLy Lo make a cross-cuLLlng lnvesLmenL LhaL
advances boLh fundamenLal research and developmenL ln an area vlLal Lo u.S.
compeLlLlveness whlle provldlng Lhe poLenLlal for near Lerm [ob, buslness developmenL
and educaLlonal reLurns. CuLllned below are Lhe broad crlLlcal appllcaLlon areas for
roboLlcs. 1he creaLlon of a $100 mllllon lnlLlaLlve Lo be maLched by lndusLry Lo esLabllsh
LesL beds ln Lhe ma[or appllcaLlon areas could generaLe nearly 10,000 new [obs
lmpacLlng a wlde range of secLors. 1he speclflc proposal advanced ls Lo creaLe a
compeLlLlve process Lo esLabllsh a serles of roboLlcs LesL beds ln communlLles across Lhe
naLlon. 1hese LesL beds would be devoLed Lo speclflc healLh, LransporLaLlon, agrlculLure,
manufacLurlng and exLended care servlces. 1he selecLed LesL beds musL lnclude large
and small lndusLrlal parLners, unlverslLles and engaged parLners ln Lhe end use
communlLy. 8ecognlzlng Lhe unlque capaclLy of roboLlcs Lo be a powerful Lool for
educaLlon, each proposal should lncorporaLe a sLraLegy for Lhe LesL bed Lo engage k-12
sLudenLs and Lo fosLer Lhe developmenL of new educaLlonal appllcaLlons.
1he remalnder of Lhe essay addresses Lhe unexpecLed breadLh and slgnlflcance of
roboLlcs.
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8oboLlcs Lransforms Lhe connecLlon of compuLers Lo Lhe real world. 1he slgnlflcance of
Lhls connecLlon ls dlfflculL Lo oversLaLe. 1o sLarL, conslder Lhe role of sensors, and Lhe
effecL on Lhe world wlde web, and fuLure neLworks. AL presenL Lhe world wlde web ls
resLrlcLed mosLly Lo documenLs and oLher lnformaLlon provlded by humans. Lven when
cameras and oLher sensors are aLLached, our compuLers and neLworks are prlmarlly a
communlcaLlons and sLorage medlum. Lvery advance ln Lhe sofLware Lo analyze and
undersLand Lhe sensory daLa enables numerous appllcaLlons.
1he cosL of Lhe sensors, Lhe compuLers, and Lhe communlcaLlons ls qulLe low, as
evldenced by Lhe number of cell phone cameras ln use. As our compuLers achleve even
a crude undersLandlng of vldeo lmagery, Lhe appllcaLlons are many, and wlll profoundly
change our llves. 1he mosL obvlous appllcaLlons are securlLy: pervaslve lnLelllgenL
securlLy monlLors for homes, for borders, and for Lhe clvll lnfrasLrucLure wlll resulL, and
wlll become more capable and more affordable as Lhe percepLlon Lechnlques conLlnue
Lo lmprove.
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8oboLlcs also Lransforms Lhe connecLlon of humans Lo Lhe real world. Sensors ofLen
Lranscend Lhe llmlLaLlons of human percepLlon. 1hey enable us Lo see far away, Lo see
very small Lhlngs, Lo see Lhree-dlmenslonal lmages of Lhe lnslde of our bodles, and Lo
lnLegraLe lmagery from numerous oLher sensors, such as CS, moLlon sensors, and
oLhers. 1hls lnformaLlon can be presenLed Lo a human ln an lnLeracLlve way, ln effecL
glvlng a vldeo-game llke experlence, leLLlng Lhe human experlence Lhe world ln ways
LhaL are now lmposslble. 1he mosL exclLlng appllcaLlons are ln educaLlon. PlsLory can
be learned by experlenclng lL flrsL hand. lmmerslve language learnlng can become
globally affordable. Sclence sLudenLs can lnLeracL wlLh lnsecLs and explore Lhe
molecular sLrucLure of cells.
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8oboLlcs ls abouL acLlon, and Lhe maln goal of LhaL acLlon wlll be Lo serve humans.
8oboLlcs Lechnology does noL resemble common sclence flcLlon scenarlos. ln mosL
lnsLances, roboLlcs Lechnology wlll be embedded ln common ob[ecLs, and noL
recognlzable as a roboL per se. An example ls unmanned vehlcles. vehlcles are already
drlvlng Lhemselves ln cerLaln resLrlcLed appllcaLlons such as shlpplng yards. unmanned
aerlal vehlcles are provlng Lhemselves ln survelllance and ln combaL, and unmanned
ground vehlcles are nearlng subsLanLlal deploymenL ln combaL zones. When passenger
cars drlve Lhemselves, Lhe resulL wlll be dramaLlc lmprovemenLs ln efflclency and safeLy,
wlLh enormous savlngs ln fuel, lnsurance, medlcal bllls, and overall a greaL lmprovemenL
ln Lhe quallLy of our llves. AnoLher example ls asslsLlve Lechnology ln our homes, whlch
can enable Lhe elderly and dlsabled Lo llve lndependenL llves, raLher Lhan movlng lnLo
lnsLlLuLlons.
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8oboLlc Lechnology for manufacLurlng was orlglnally developed ln Lhe unlLed SLaLes, buL
Lhe manufacLurlng roboLlcs lndusLry ls now domlnaLed by Asla and Lurope, wlLh serlous
consequences for uS roboLlcs and for uS manufacLurlng.
unllke manufacLurlng, Lhe servlce roboLlcs secLor ls [usL beglnnlng Lo develop.
ulLlmaLely lL wlll dwarf Lhe manufacLurlng secLor. 1he unlLed SLaLes ls well placed, wlLh
an ouLsLandlng research and developmenL communlLy, and Lhe buslness lnfrasLrucLure
Lo encourage lnnovaLlve appllcaLlons of Lhe new Lechnology. noneLheless, we are belng
ouLspenL by our compeLlLors ln Lurope and Asla. Cur fuLure global compeLlLlveness ls aL
rlsk lf Lhls lmporLanL new secLor ls ceded Lo oLhers.
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Several monLhs ago a group of roboLlcs leaders, drawn from unlverslLles, lndusLry, and
governmenL labs, formed a roadmapplng efforL funded by Lhe naLlonal Sclence
loundaLlon. A serles of workshops ls ln progress, wlLh Lhe goal of arLlculaLlng a naLlonal
roboLlcs agenda. A naLlonal Leadershlp Councll was also formed, comprlslng leaders
from Lhe parLlclpaLlng unlverslLles, companles and laboraLorles, whlch wlll LransmlL Lhe
flnal reporL Lo Lhe federal governmenL on lebruary 14, 2009.
1he goals of Lhe roadmapplng efforL are: (1) Lo ldenLlfy Lhe fuLure lmpacL of roboLlcs on
Lhe economlc, soclal, and securlLy needs of Lhe naLlon, (2) Lo ouLllne Lhe sclenLlflc and
Lechnologlcal challenges Lo address, and (3) Lo drafL a roadmap Lo address Lhose
challenges and reallze Lhe beneflLs. So far four workshops have been conducLed. 1hree
workshops focused on appllcaLlon areas: manufacLurlng, servlce, and healLhcare. A
fourLh workshop focused on emerglng Lechnologles and Lrends.
82*/92&$/0%*,. 1he manufacLurlng secLor conLlnues Lo be vlLal Lo Lhe uS for many
reasons. lL ls an especlally slgnlflcanL parL of our exporLs. ManufacLurlng pracLlces are
changlng rapldly ln Lhe Lypes of producLs LhaL can be produced, Lhe quallLy wlLh whlch
Lhey are produced, and Lhe speed wlLh whlch new producLs can be broughL Lo markeL.
8oboLlcs for manufacLurlng conLlnues Lo advance, and may be polsed for radlcal
acceleraLlon, fueled boLh by new fundamenLal approaches Lo roboLlcs and auLomaLlon
research, and lmprovemenLs ln many componenL Lechnologles such as percepLlon,
machlne learnlng, and human lnLerfaces.
8+5%&23 2*5 :+23$1&20+. Medlcal roboLlcs ls already a ma[or success as use of
mlnlmally lnvaslve roboLs slgnlflcanLly reduces recovery Llme and rlsks assoclaLed wlLh
surgery. 1oday a large number of prosLaLe procedures are performed wlLh roboLs, and a
slgnlflcanL number of roboL-asslsLed cardlac procedures are performed dally. 8oboLs
are also belng used for rehablllLaLlon and ln lnLelllgenL prosLheses Lo help people
recover losL funcLlon, and soclally asslsLlve roboLs are belng developed capable of
provldlng monlLorlng, coachlng, and moLlvaLlon for encouraglng cognlLlve and physlcal
acLlvlLles, and mlnlmlzlng lsolaLlon and depresslon. 1oday uS ls Lhe leader ln roboL
asslsLed surgery, buL oLher counLrles are fasL followers, lL ls also Lhe leader ln lor
conLlnued quallLy of llfe asslsLlve Lechnologles almed aL speclal-needs populaLlons and
Lhe elderly. lor conLlnued leadershlp, lL ls essenLlal Lo push Lhe Lechnology furLher and
Lo supporL adopLlon of Lhe Lechnology and Lralnlng of physlclans.
;+06%&+. 1he servlce secLor lncludes boLh professlonal and domesLlc servlces.
rofesslonal servlce roboLs are used ln loglsLlcs, agrlculLure, cleanlng, and mlnlng. A
loglsLlcs example ls harbor auLomaLlon Lo ensure lncreased lnspecLlon of conLalners Lo
lmprove homeland securlLy. ln agrlculLure, Lhe prlmary need ls Lo lncrease producLlvlLy
Lo ensure conLlnued economlc vlablllLy. ln mlnlng, roboLs are used Lo lncrease efflclency
buL also Lo lncrease safeLy. CLher professlonal servlces lnclude warehouse managemenL,
auLomaLlc survelllance of areas eLc. uomesLlc servlce roboLs lnclude auLomaLlc floor
care such as vacuumlng. Already Loday more Lhan 3 mllllon home roboLs have been
deployed. 8oboLs ln Lhe home are essenLlal Lo reduce Llme spenL on dally chores and
enable Lhe elderly Lo malnLaln a clean and organlzed home. 1oday Lhe uS ls Lhe leader
ln servlce roboLlcs, buL ls challenged by efforLs ln Lurope and korea. 1he servlce secLor
ls experlenclng 400 annual growLh and could prove Lo be a ma[or new economlc area.
As an example Ponda has pro[ecLed LhaL roboLlcs wlll be as blg an economlc secLor for
Lhem as cars by 2020.
1he fourLh workshop addressed +-+0,%*, $+&1*"3",%+' 2*5 $0+*5'. 8oboLlcs lnLegraLes
many dlfferenL componenL dlsclpllnes and Lechnologles. 8oboLlcs has ofLen been drlven
by advances ln Lhese componenL Lechnologles, and ln reLurn roboLlcs has ofLen provlded
Lhe appllcaLlons LhaL have moLlvaLed Lhese advances. 1he roadmapplng efforL ldenLlfled
63 dlfferenL Lechnologlcal advances whlch promlse Lo lmpacL roboLlcs, and 33 dlfferenL
new appllcaLlons whlch wlll be enabled by varlous advances. A few speclflc Lechnology
areas of slgnlflcance are mlcro- and nano-Lechnology, sensors and moLors, Lhe Lheory
and englneerlng of analyzlng and conLrolllng dynamlc sysLems, communlcaLlon and
neLworklng, Lheory and pracLlce ln machlne learnlng, and human lnLerface sofLware.
A naLlonal lnlLlaLlve ln roboLlcs would address many naLlonal prlorlLles. lL would ensure
fuLure compeLlLlveness and hence employmenL ln a rapldly growlng secLor. lL would
dlrecLly affecL Lhe effecLlveness of our naLlon's mlllLary and Lhe securlLy of Lhe
homeland. lL would enrlch our llves by brlnglng ouLsLandlng educaLlonal opporLunlLles,
good [obs, greaLer safeLy, beLLer healLh care, personal securlLy, and a level of
lndependence and freedom LhaL only our wealLhlesL clLlzens presenLly en[oy.