Você está na página 1de 49

&ULWLTXHRIWKHQHRFODVVLFDOWKHRU\RI

JURZWKDQGGLVWULEXWLRQ
/

8,*,

/ 3

$6,1(77,

 )RUHZRUG

$Q\ VXUYH\ FRQFLVH DV LW PD\ EH RI WKH FULWLFLVPV WKDW KDYH EHHQ
PDGH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWLRQ UHTXLUHV WKDW D GLVWLQFWLRQ EH PDGH EHWZHHQ LWV WZR EDVLF
FRPSRQHQWV HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
7KH WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV WKH PRUH WUDGLWLRQDO EXW
DOVR WKH PRUH FRQWURYHUVLDO FRPSRQHQW RI QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ $V
VXFK LW LV DQ LQWHJUDO SDUW RI WKDW PDUJLQDO UHYROXWLRQ WKDW WRRN SODFH
LQ WKH VHFRQG SDUW RI WKH  FHQWXU\ LQ RSSRVLWLRQ WR FODVVLFDO HFR
QRPLF WKRXJKW RI 6PLWK 0DOWKXV 5LFDUGR 0DU[ 
7KH WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK LV PRUH UHFHQW LW KDV EHHQ GH
YHORSHG LQ WKH ODWWHU KDOI RI WKH  FHQWXU\ DQG KDG WKH HIIHFW RI DE
VRUELQJ LQWR WKH PDLQ VWUHDP RI GRPLQDQW PDUJLQDO HFRQRPLF WKH
RU\ WKH LGHDV DQG LQVLJKWV RI WZR .H\QHVLDQ HFRQRPLVWV 5R\ +DU
URG DQG (YVH\ 'RPDU  ZKR KDG DW ORQJ ODVW UHYLYHG LQWHUHVW LQ WKH
FODVVLFDO WKHPHV RI ORQJUXQ HFRQRPLF JURZWK

WK

WK

8QLYHUVLWj &DWWROLFD GHO 6 &XRUH ,VWLWXWR GL WHRULD HFRQRPLFD H PHWRGL TXDQ

WLWDWLYL 0LODQR ,WDO\ 


7KLV DUWLFOH OLNH WKH RQH E\ 5REHUW 6RORZ WKDW SUHFHGHV LW LQ WKLV LVVXH RULJL

QDWHG DV DQ HQWU\ SUHSDUHG IRU WKH

6WRULD GHO ;; VHFROR

SODQQHG DQG VR IDU XQSXE

OLVKHG E\ WKH ,VWLWXWR GHOOD (QFLFORSHGLD ,WDOLDQD WR ZKRP , H[SUHVV P\ WKDQNV IRU
NLQGO\ DXWKRULVLQJ WKH XVH RI WKLV PDWHULDO , DOVR WKDQN IRU YDOXDEOH VXJJHVWLRQV DQG
FRPPHQWV RQ DQ HDUOLHU GUDIW 0DXUR %DUDQ]LQL *LXVHSSH %HUWROD *HRIIUH\ +DU
FRXUW

$OEHUWR

4XDGULR

&XU]LR

3DROR

6\ORV

/DELQL

3DROR

9DUUL

DQG

6WHIDQR

=DPDJQL
)LQDQFLDO VXSSRUW IURP WKH ,WDOLDQ 0LQLVWU\ RI 8QLYHUVLW\ DQG 6FLHQWLILF 5HVHDUFK
08567  LV JUDWHIXOO\ DFNQRZOHGJHG

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ QR  'HFHPEHU 

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ



7KH FRPSRQHQW FRQFHUQLQJ JURZWK ZKHQ VWULFWO\ FRQVLGHUHG LV


QRW LQ LWVHOI D PDWWHU RI VXEVWDQWLDO FRQWURYHUV\ HYHQ LI LW UHPDLQV
RSHQ WR YDULRXV FULWLFLVPV DQG REMHFWLRQV 7R VLPSOLI\ WKH PDWWHU WR D
FHUWDLQ H[WHQW ZH PLJKW VD\ WKDW WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF
JURZWK ZKHQ PDNLQJ QR XVH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLV
WULEXWLRQ LV JURZWK WKHRU\ WRXW FRXUW ,W H[WHQGV LQ D FHUWDLQ GLUHFWLRQ
WKH +DUURG'RPDU JURZWK PRGHO ZKLFK FRQVWLWXWHG WKH VWDUWLQJ
SRLQW IRU DOO WKHRULHV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK QHRFODVVLFDO DQG QRQ
QHRFODVVLFDO RI WKH ODWWHU KDOI RI WKH  FHQWXU\
,Q KLV VXUYH\ RI 1HRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEX
WLRQ SXEOLVKHG LQ WKLV MRXUQDO 5REHUW 6RORZ KDV FKRVHQ WR IRFXV KLV
FRQWULEXWLRQ RQ WKH OHVV FRQWURYHUVLDO FRPSRQHQW FRQFHUQLQJ HFR
QRPLF JURZWK $W WKH HQG RI KLV DUWLFOH KH VD\V WKDW 9HU\ OLWWOH KDV
EHHQ VDLG LQ WKLV VXUYH\ DERXW LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ 6RORZ  S  
7KH SUHVHQW FRQWULEXWLRQ E\ FRQWUDVW ZLOO IRFXV RQ WKH RWKHU
FRPSRQHQW LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WKH RQH WKDW KDV JHQHUDWHG JUHDWHU
FRQWURYHUV\
WK

 7KH FODVVLFDO WKHRU\ 5LFDUGLDQ YHUVLRQ

7KH VWDUWLQJ SRLQW FRPPRQ WR DOO HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV RI LQFRPH


GLVWULEXWLRQ FDQ EH WUDFHG EDFN WR WKH SULQFLSDO ZRUN RI 'DYLG
5LFDUGR 2Q WKH 3ULQFLSOHV RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ DQG 7D[DWLRQ  
ZKLFK PD\ EH WDNHQ DV D V\QWKHVLV RI FODVVLFDO WKHRU\ 2Q WKH YHU\
RSHQLQJ SDJH RI KLV ZRUN 5LFDUGR VHWV IRUWK WKH SURSRVLWLRQV

+LVWRULFDO QRWH RQ WKH XVH RI WKH WHUP LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ $FFRUGLQJ WR (GZLQ

&DQQDQ  S   WKH DXWKRULWDWLYH KLVWRULDQ RI HFRQRPLF WKRXJKW ERWK WKH
ZRUG GLVWULEXWLRQ LWVHOI DQG WKH YHUE GLVWULEXWH >@ ZHUH LQWURGXFHG LQWR HFRQRPLF
WKHRU\ >@ E\ 4XHVQD\ DQG WKXV E\ WKH )UHQFK 3K\VLRFUDWV LQ SDUWLFXODU E\ 0LUD

WK

EHDX 7XUJRW &DQWLOORQ LQ WKH ODWWHU SDUW RI WKH 

FHQWXU\ $GDP 6PLWK IROORZHG

WKH 3K\VLRFUDWV 1R (QJOLVK RU 6FRWFK HFRQRPLVW VHHPV WR KDYH PDGH DQ\ WHFKQLFDO
XVH RI WKH WHUP GLVWULEXWLRQ EHIRUH $GDP 6PLWK SURGXFHG WKH

LELG S  

WK

:H PD\ PHQWLRQ WKDW D QXPEHU RI ODWH 

:HDOWK RI 1DWLRQV

FHQWXU\ VWDWLVWLFLDQV OLNH

*UHJRU\ .LQJ 3HWW\ DQG 'DYHQDQW PDGH HVWLPDWHV RI WKH LQFRPHV RI WKH YDULRXV %ULW
LVK VRFLDO FODVVHV ZKLFK LQGLUHFWO\ UHFDOOV WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI GLVWULEXWLRQ WR RXU
PRGHUQ PLQGV EXW WKH\ QHYHU DFWXDOO\ VSRNH RI GLVWULEXWLRQ 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG
6PLWK DQG WKH 3K\VLRFUDWV H[SOLFLWO\ LQWURGXFHG DQG GLVFXVVHG WKH LGHD RI GLVWULEX
WLRQ DOWKRXJK JRLQJ QR IXUWKHU WKDQ D IHZ LPSRUWDQW UHPDUNV VXFK DV 6PLWKV WKDW
WKH YDOXH RI DQ\ FRPPRGLW\ PXVW XOWLPDWHO\ UHVROYH LWVHOI LQWR ZDJHV SURILWV DQG
UHQWV VHH 6PLWK >@  YRO , S   $Q HFRQRPLF

WKHRU\

RI LQFRPH GLVWULEX

WLRQ ZDV RQO\ WR WDNH VKDSH DV IURP WKH ZULWLQJV RI 'DYLG 5LFDUGR  

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



7KH SURGXFH RI WKH HDUWK DOO WKDW LV GHULYHG IURP LWV VXUIDFH
E\ WKH XQLWHG DSSOLFDWLRQ RI ODERXU PDFKLQHU\ DQG FDSLWDO LV GL
YLGHG DPRQJ WKUHH FODVVHV RI WKH FRPPXQLW\ QDPHO\ WKH SURSULH
WRU RI WKH ODQG WKH RZQHU RI WKH VWRFN RU FDSLWDO >@ DQG WKH OD
ERXUHUV >@
%XW LQ GLIIHUHQW VWDJHV RI VRFLHW\ WKH SURSRUWLRQV RI WKH ZKROH
SURGXFH RI WKH HDUWK ZKLFK ZLOO EH DOORWWHG WR HDFK RI WKHVH FODVVHV
XQGHU WKH QDPHV RI UHQW SURILW DQG ZDJHV ZLOO EH HVVHQWLDOO\ GLI
IHUHQW >@
7R GHWHUPLQH WKH ODZV ZKLFK UHJXODWH WKLV GLVWULEXWLRQ LV WKH
SULQFLSDO SUREOHP LQ 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ >@ 5LFDUGR  S  

5LFDUGR KDG WKH JHQLXV WR VXP XS LQ D FRPSOHWH DQG ORJLFDOO\


FRQVLVWHQW VFKHPH WKH GHEDWH WKDW KDG EHHQ WDNLQJ SODFH DPRQJ WKH
%ULWLVK HFRQRPLVWV RI KLV WLPH ,Q SDUWLFXODU KH VXFFHHGHG LQ EULQJLQJ
WRJHWKHU WKH FRUH RI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV WR D IDPRXV H[FKDQJH RI YLHZV
WKDW HPHUJHG IURP D SUROLIHUDWLRQ RI SDPSKOHWV E\ 0DOWKXV :HVW
7RUUHQV DQG 5LFDUGR KLPVHOI  DOO RI ZKLFK DSSHDUHG LQ )HEUXDU\
 7KHVH SDPSKOHWV ZHUH SURPSWHG E\ WKH WKHQ LPPLQHQW GHEDWH
RQ WKH &RUQ /DZV LQ WKH %ULWLVK 3DUOLDPHQW EXW WKH\ FRQWDLQ WZR
WKHRUHWLFDO EHQFKPDUNV RI GHFLVLYH LPSRUWDQFH IRU DOO WKH HQVXLQJ GH
EDWH WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO WKHRU\ RI UHQW DQG WKH ODZ RI GLPLQLVKLQJ UH
WXUQV FRQVHTXHQW XSRQ WKH H[WHQVLRQ RI FXOWLYDWLRQ RI ODQG %RWK RI
WKHVH SULQFLSOHV YHU\ VWURQJO\ LQIOXHQFHG DOO VXEVHTXHQW WKHRULHV RI LQ
FRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK
7KH GLIIHUHQWLDO WKHRU\ RI UHQW KDG DOUHDG\ EHHQ DQWLFLSDWHG E\
-DPHV $QGHUVRQ DV HDUO\ DV  EXW KDG UHFHLYHG VFDQW DWWHQWLRQ ,W
ZDV RQO\ WKURXJK LWV DVVRFLDWLRQ ZLWK WKH ODZ RI GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV
LQ  WKDW WKH HFRQRPLF SURIHVVLRQ KDLOHG LW DV D VLJQLILFDQW GLVFRY
HU\ 7KH PHULW DQG WKH SULRULW\ PXVW EH DWWULEXWHG WR 0DOWKXV DQG
SUREDEO\ WR :HVW  +RZHYHU WKH GLIIHUHQWLDO WKHRU\ RI UHQW EHFDPH
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK 5LFDUGRV H[SRVLWLRQ DQG WKXV DOEHLW LPSURSHUO\ ZDV
WHUPHG 5LFDUGLDQ
,Q VKRUW WKLV WKHRU\ VLQJOHV RXW WKH RULJLQ RI UHQW LQ WKH WHFKQL
FDO IDFW WKDW GLIIHUHQW SORWV RI ODQG KDYH GLIIHUHQW GHJUHHV RI IHUWLOLW\
VR WKDW WKH PRUH IHUWLOH SORWV \LHOG WKHLU RZQHUV GLIIHUHQWLDO JDLQV ZLWK
UHVSHFW WR WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKDW OHVV IHUWLOH SORW RI ODQG ZKLFK
KDSSHQV WR EH DW WKH PDUJLQ EHWZHHQ FXOWLYDWHG DQG QRQFXOWLYDWHG
ODQGV ,W WKXV EHFRPHV FUXFLDO WR LGHQWLI\ WKLV PDUJLQDO ODQG LH
WKDW ODQG ZKLFK LV WKH OHDVW SURGXFWLYH EXW QHYHUWKHOHVV PXVW EH FXOWL



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

YDWHG LQ RUGHU WR VDWLVI\ WKH WRWDO GHPDQG IRU DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFH ,Q


DQ\ JLYHQ VLWXDWLRQ WKHUH ZLOO WKHUHIRUH EH D PDUJLQDO SORW RI ODQG
ZKLFK E\ GHILQLWLRQ \LHOGV QR UHQW  H[WUDPDUJLQDO SORWV RI ODQG
XQFXOWLYDWHG EHFDXVH QRW IHUWLOH HQRXJK DQG LQWUDPDUJLQDO SORWV RI
ODQG ZKLFK EHVLGHV EHLQJ FXOWLYDWHG DOVR \LHOG WKHLU RZQHUV FHUWDLQ
JDLQV UHQWV  WKHVH EHLQJ WKH GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH SURGXFWLYLWLHV RI
WKH PRUH IHUWLOH SORWV RI ODQG DQG WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH PDUJLQDO
ODQG ZKLFK WKRXJK FXOWLYDWHG \LHOGV QR UHQW
7KLV LV WKH PRUH LPPHGLDWH VRFDOOHG H[WHQVLYH YHUVLRQ RI WKH
GLIIHUHQWLDO WKHRU\ RI UHQW ,W ZDV VXSSOHPHQWHG E\ DQ LQWHQVLYH YHU
VLRQ DGYDQFHG E\ WKH VDPH FODVVLFDO DXWKRUV $Q\ SORW RI FXOWLYDWHG
ODQG ZKLFK LV PRUH IHUWLOH WKDQ WKH PDUJLQDO ODQG FDQ DOVR DEVRUE DG
GLWLRQDO GRVHV RI WKH RWKHU IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ FDSLWDO DQG ODERXU 
WR \LHOG IXUWKHU SURGXFH DJDLQ ZLWK HYHU GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV WKRXJK
LQWHQVLYH LQ WKLV FDVH  ,W ZLOO REYLRXVO\ EH SURILWDEOH WR IRUJH DKHDG
ZLWK WKLV LQWHQVLYH DSSOLFDWLRQ XQWLO WKDW SRLQW DW ZKLFK WKH GLIIHUHQ
WLDO JDLQ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH PDUJLQDO ODQG LV UHGXFHG WR ]HUR 2Q WKH
EDVLV RI WKLV IRUPXODWLRQ WKHUHIRUH LW LV UHQW LQ ORJLFDO RUGHU WKDW
UHSUHVHQWV WKH ILUVW SDUW RI WKH QDWLRQDO SURGXFW WKDW UHDFKHV GLVWULEX
WLRQ ,W LV WKDW SDUW RI WKH SURGXFW WKDW LV DSSURSULDWHG E\ WKH ODQG
RZQHUV
,Q D FODVVLFDO VRFLDO FRQWH[W FKDUDFWHULVHG E\ WKUHH VRFLDO FODVVHV
WKH ODQGRZQHUV WKH ZDJHHDUQHUV DQG WKH FDSLWDOLVWV ZKR DOVR DFW DV
WKH HQWUHSUHQHXUV LQ WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV WKH QHW SURGXFW RI WKH
HFRQRPLF V\VWHP HPHUJHV DV D VXUSOXV WKDW LV REWDLQHG DIWHU UHSODF
LQJ WKH PHDQV RI SURGXFWLRQ ZKLFK DUH FRQVLGHUHG DV DOVR LQFOXGLQJ
VXEVLVWHQFH ZDJHV RI WKH ZRUNHUV  2QFH UHQW KDV EHHQ GLVWULEXWHG
ZKDW UHPDLQV LV WR EH VXEGLYLGHG EHWZHHQ ZDJHV DQG SURILWV 1RZ LQ
D QDWXUDOODZ GRPLQDWHG LQWHOOHFWXDO HQYLURQPHQW LPSUHVVHG E\ WKH
WKHQ HPHUJLQJ 0DOWKXVLDQ WKHRU\ RI SRSXODWLRQ LW LV KDUGO\ VXUSULV
LQJ WKDW 5LFDUGR DQG WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV LQ JHQHUDO VKRXOG EH
FRQYLQFHG WKDW WKHUH H[LVWV D QDWXUDO ZDJH MXVW DERYH VXEVLVWHQFH
UHSUHVHQWLQJ D IDPLO\ LQFRPH DW ZKLFK WKH DYHUDJH SRSXODWLRQ LV LQ
GXFHG QHLWKHU WR JURZ QRU WR GLPLQLVK VWDWLRQDU\ SRSXODWLRQ  2QFH
WKLV QDWXUDO ZDJH KDV EHHQ GLVWULEXWHG WR WKH ZRUNHUV WKH UHVLGXDO
UHSUHVHQWV WKH SURILWV RI WKH FDSLWDOLVWVHQWUHSUHQHXUV
,Q URXJK RXWOLQH WKLV LV WKH FHOHEUDWHG WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWUL
EXWLRQ WKDW 5LFDUGR VHWV RXW LQ KLV 3ULQFLSOHV 2I FRXUVH KLV H[SRVL
WLRQ LV PRUH FRPSOH[ DQG TXDOLILHG EXW LWV EDVLF WUDLWV DUH HVVHQWLDOO\

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



WKHVH D YHUVLRQ RI WKLV WKHRU\ SUHVHQWHG LQ PDWKHPDWLFDO WHUPV PD\


EH IRXQG LQ 3DVLQHWWL  
7KH QRWDEOH DQDO\WLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI WKLV 5LFDUGLDQ VFKHPH LV
WKDW DV VRRQ DV VRPH QRWLRQ RI FDSLWDO DFFXPXODWLRQ GHULYLQJ IURP
WKH FDSLWDOLVWV VDYLQJV RXW RI SURILWV LV LQWURGXFHG WKLV JHQHUDWHV DQ
HQGRJHQRXV SURFHVV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 7KH PHFKDQLVP LV UHDOO\
VLPSOH LQFUHDVLQJ FDSLWDO LQGXFHV DQ LQFUHDVLQJ GHPDQG IRU ZRUNHUV
ZKLFK LQ WXUQ FDXVHV ZDJHV WR LQFUHDVH DERYH VXEVLVWHQFH 7KLV DF
FRUGLQJ WR 0DOWKXVLDQ WKHVHV OHDGV SRSXODWLRQ WR JURZ PDNLQJ LW
QHFHVVDU\ WR H[WHQG WKH FXOWLYDWLRQ RI ODQG ,I WHFKQRORJ\ UHPDLQV XQ
FKDQJHG WKHQ H[WHQGLQJ FXOWLYDWLRQ RI ODQG WR WKH OHVV IHUWLOH SORWV RI
ODQG RU LQWHQVLI\LQJ WKH H[SORLWDWLRQ RI H[LVWLQJ IDUPODQG OHDGV WR
GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV DV WKH TXDQWLWLHV SURGXFHG DUH LQFUHDVHG 7KLV LQ
WXUQ JHQHUDWHV YDULDWLRQV LQ WKH SURSRUWLRQV RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWHG DV UHQW ZDJHV DQG SURILWV 7KH WRWDO DPRXQW RI ZDJHV DW
WKH QDWXUDO OHYHO FDQ RQO\ JURZ LQ SURSRUWLRQ WR WKH QXPEHU RI
ZRUNHUV 7KH GLIIHUHQWLDO SURGXFWLYLW\ JDLQV RI WKH YDULRXV W\SHV RI
ODQG ZLOO DOVR FRQWLQXH WR LQFUHDVH DV WKH PDUJLQDO ODQG NHHSV RQ EHLQJ
VKLIWHG IXUWKHU RXW 7KH WRWDO DPRXQW RI UHQWV ZLOO WKXV FRQWLQXH WR
LQFUHDVH 7KH KDUGHVW KLW E\ WKLV SURFHVV ZLOO SUHFLVHO\ EH WKH PHP
EHUV RI WKDW VRFLDO FODVV WKDW 5LFDUGR FRQVLGHUHG DV WKH PRVW DFWLYH
QDPHO\ WKH FDSLWDOLVWV WKH UHVLGXDO QHW QDWLRQDO LQFRPH UHPDLQLQJ
IRU SURILWV ZLOO FRQWLQXH WR GLPLQLVK 8OWLPDWHO\ WKHUH LV QR ZD\ RXW
7KH UDWH RI SURILWV ZLOO GHFOLQH XQWLO LW GULHV XS DOO LQFHQWLYH WR VDYH
DQG WR DFFXPXODWH FDSLWDO 
7KHUH DUH WZR FKDQQHOV WKDW PD\ FRXQWHUDFW WKLV WUHQG 7KH ILUVW
LV H[WHUQDO DQG FRQVLVWV LQ LQWHUQDWLRQDO WUDGH ,I DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXF
WLRQ DQG ZLWK LW GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV LV OHIW WR WKH UHVW RI WKH ZRUOG
WKHQ KRPH SURGXFWLRQ FDQ EH FRQFHQWUDWHG RQ PDQXIDFWXUHV IRU
ZKLFK UHWXUQV WR VFDOH DUH FRQVWDQW RU LQFUHDVLQJ  WR EH JLYHQ LQ H[
FKDQJH IRU WKH IRRG LPSRUWV 7KH VHFRQG FKDQQHO LV LQWHUQDO DQG FRQ
VLVWV LQ LPSURYLQJ WKH PHWKRGV RI FXOWLYDWLQJ ODQG LH WHFKQLFDO SURJ
UHVV  $OO WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV DFNQRZOHGJHG WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI
LPSURYLQJ WHFKQRORJ\ %XW VXUSULVLQJO\ WKH\ XQGHUHVWLPDWHG LWV SR
WHQWLDO FRQYLQFHG DV WKH\ ZHUH WKDW SRSXODWLRQ JURZWK ZRXOG HYHQ
WXDOO\ RXWSDFH DOO WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI ERRVWLQJ DJULFXOWXUDO SURGXFWLY
LW\ DQG WKDW FDSLWDO DFFXPXODWLRQ ZRXOG XOWLPDWHO\ FRPH WR D VWDQG
VWLOO GXH WR WKH HXWKDQDVLD WR XVH D .H\QHVLDQ WHUP RI WKH FDSLWDO
LVWV OHIW ZLWK QHJOLJLEOH DPRXQWV RI SURILWV LH WRR ORZ LQFRPHV WR



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

KDYH DQ\ LQFHQWLYH WR VDYH DQG DFFXPXODWH 7KH YDULDWLRQ RYHU WLPH RI
WKH SURFHVV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ ZRXOG WKXV OHDG WR D VWDWLRQDU\
VWDWH LQ ZKLFK WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH LQFRPH ZRXOG HVVHQWLDOO\ EH UH
GXFHG WR RQO\ WZR UHOHYDQW VKDUHV ZDJHV IRU WKH ZRUNHUV KDYLQJ
UHDFKHG WKH PD[LPXP QXPEHU FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK WKH H[LVWLQJ QDWXUDO
UHVRXUFHV EXW FRQVWUDLQHG WR D EDUH VXEVLVWHQFH ZDJH UDWH DQG UHQWV
IRU WKH ODQGRZQHUV WKH RQO\ FODVV WR EHFRPH DQG HIIHFWLYHO\ UHPDLQ
WKH ZHOOWRGR FODVV
:H PXVW DFNQRZOHGJH WKH LPSUHVVLYH GHJUHH RI FODULW\ FRP
SOHWHQHVV DQG DERYH DOO ORJLFDO FRQVLVWHQF\ RI WKLV 5LFDUGLDQ IRUPXOD
WLRQ RI WKH SURFHVV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK
3URSRVHG DW D WLPH ZKHQ HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ ZDV WDNLQJ LWV ILUVW
VWHSV WRZDUGV ZLHOGLQJ DQDO\WLF WRROV WKLV VFKHPH KDG DQ LUUHVLVWLEOH
IDVFLQDWLRQ IRU WKH HFRQRPLF SURIHVVLRQ RI WKH HDUO\  FHQWXU\ <HW
LW LPSOLHV D FRQFHSWLRQ RI WKH IXWXUH RI WKH WKHQ HPHUJLQJ LQGXVWULDO
VRFLHWLHV WKDW LV XQMXVWLILDEO\ SHVVLPLVWLF HVSHFLDOO\ LI ZH FRQVLGHU WKDW
LW ZDV SURSRVHG SUHFLVHO\ DW D VWDJH LQ KLVWRU\ ZKHQ VXFK DQ H[WUDRU
GLQDU\ SURFHVV DV WKH LQGXVWULDO UHYROXWLRQ ZDV LQ IXOO VZLQJ ,QGHHG
LW LV KDUGO\ VXUSULVLQJO\ WR ILQG WKDW LW ZDV WKH QRQHFRQRPLVWV UDWKHU
WKDQ WKH HFRQRPLVWV ZKR UHFRJQLVHG WKH XQGXH SHVVLPLVP RI VXFK D
FRQFHSWLRQ $ PDQ RI OHWWHUV VXFK DV 7KRPDV &DUO\OH IRU H[DPSOH
KDG QR KHVLWDWLRQ LQ DSSO\LQJ WR WKLV HFRQRPLF VFLHQFH WKH RIW
TXRWHG HSLWKHW RI GLVPDO VFLHQFH
WK

 7KH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ

7KH HFRQRPLVWV RI WKH ODWWHU KDOI RI WKH  FHQWXU\ KDG WKH LQWXLWLRQ
WR JUDVS WKH LQJHQLRXV SRWHQWLDO RI WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH XQGHUO\LQJ
5LFDUGRV WKHRU\ RI UHQW DQG FRQFHLYHG WKH LGHD RI ZLGHQLQJ RU
UDWKHU DV LV VDLG PRUH SHUVXDVLYHO\ RI JHQHUDOLVLQJ LWV DSSOLFDWLRQ
7KDW VHW RI HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV WKDW ZHUH SURSRVHG LQ WKH ODWH 
FHQWXU\ DQG ZHUH LQGLFDWHG DV D PDUJLQDO UHYROXWLRQ IRFXVVHG
SUHFLVHO\ RQ WKH JHQHUDOLVHG DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH
7KLV ZDV LQWURGXFHG ILUVW WR DFFRXQW IRU FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRXU WKH
WKHRU\ RI PDUJLQDO XWLOLW\  WKHQ LW ZDV DSSOLHG E\ H[WHQVLRQ WR WKH
ZKROH WKHRU\ RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG QRW RQO\ WR ODQG
DQG UHQW 
WK

WK

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



7KLV GHYHORSPHQW LV QR GRXEW DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ SKHQRPHQRQ IURP


WKH YLHZ SRLQW RI WKH KLVWRU\ RI HFRQRPLF WKRXJKW ,W LV D IDFW WKDW WKH
XVH RI WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH LQ WKH WKHRU\ RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG GLVWUL
EXWLRQ ODWHU WR EHFRPH NQRZQ DV QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ GLG QRW FRPH
DERXW DV D UHVXOW RI QHZ REVHUYDWLRQV RI UHDOLW\ ,W FDPH DERXW E\
DQDORJ\ DV D FRQYHQLHQW LQGHHG DV DQ HOHJDQW DHVWKHWLFDOO\ DWWUDFWLYH
H[WHQVLRQ RI 5LFDUGRV SULQFLSOH RI GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV RULJLQDOO\
FRQFHUQLQJ ODQG WR DOO WKH UHVRXUFHV LQ H[LVWHQFH
$V LQGXVWULDOLVDWLRQ VSUHDG IURP *UHDW %ULWDLQ WR WKH FRQWLQHQW
WKH HPSKDVLV RI HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ QDWXUDOO\ VKLIWHG IURP DJULFXOWXUDO
WR LQGXVWULDO SURGXFWLRQ 7KH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI FDSLWDO PXFK PRUH
WKDQ WKH H[WHQVLRQ RI WKH FXOWLYDWLRQ RI ODQG LQFUHDVLQJO\ FDPH WR EH
DW WKH FHQWUH RI WKH HFRQRPLVWV DWWHQWLRQ
(XJHQ YRQ %|KP%DZHUN RQH RI WKH PDMRU HFRQRPLVWV RI FDSL
WDO WKHRU\ FRQFHLYHG RI WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI FDSLWDO DV D FRQWLQXRXV
LQFUHDVH RI WKH LQGLUHFW URXQGDERXW PHWKRGV RI SURGXFWLRQ LQ
WHQGHG DV D OHQJWKHQLQJ RI WKH SHULRG RI SURGXFWLRQ ZKLOH EULQJLQJ
DERXW D VXEVWLWXWLRQ RI FDSLWDO IRU ODERXU ,Q WKLV YHUVLRQ RQH WDNHV RQ
WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH DQG WKH SULQFLSOH RI GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV LQ
VXFK D ZD\ DV WR PDNH WKHP LQGLVWLQJXLVKDEOH SDUWV RI RQH DQG WKH
VDPH FRQFHSWLRQ ,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR QRWH WKDW WKLV ORJLFDO SURFHVV RI
H[WHQVLRQ LQHYLWDEO\ FDPH WR LPSRVH D VHULHV RI DQDO\WLF DGDSWDWLRQV
ZKLFK DUH QRW ZLWKRXW FRQVHTXHQFHV
2Q WKH RQH KDQG WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH FRQFHUQLQJ ODQG KDG WR
EH PRXOGHG WR ILW WKH IHDWXUHV RI WKH RWKHU IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ 7KLV
KDG WKH HIIHFW RI DFWXDOO\ UHVWULFWLQJ WKH 5LFDUGLDQ SULQFLSOH 0RUH
SUHFLVHO\ LW KDG WKH HIIHFW RI PDNLQJ WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH DSSOLFDEOH
VROHO\ LQ LWV LQWHQVLYH YHUVLRQ LH LQ WKH IRUP RI UHWXUQV WKDW GLPLQLVK
DW WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH SURSRUWLRQV
2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI WKH SULQFLSOH UHTXLUHG WKH
IRUPXODWLRQ RI D VHULHV RI DVVXPSWLRQV ZKLFK JDYH WKH RWKHU IDFWRUV RI
SURGXFWLRQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI ODQG LQ RUGHU IRU WKHP
WR EH WUHDWHG VR WR VSHDN DV LI WKH\ ZHUH ODQG  7KH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI
WKLV DVVLPLODWLRQ RI FDSLWDO WR ODQG FRQVXPPDWHG IRU DQDO\WLF SXU
SRVHV SURYHG WR EH XQH[SHFWHGO\ IUDXJKW ZLWK VHULRXV FRQVHTXHQFHV
.QXW :LFNVHOO WKH JUHDW 6ZHGLVK HFRQRPLVW ZKR SURYLGHG SHU
KDSV WKH PRVW ULJRURXV YHUVLRQ RI WKH %|KP%DZHUNLDQ WKHRU\ RI
FDSLWDO HDUO\ RQ EHFDPH DZDUH RI QXPHURXV DQDO\WLF GLIILFXOWLHV RQ
ZKLFK PRUH ZLOO EH VDLG ODWHU  1HYHUWKHOHVV KH ZDV DPRQJ WKH ILUVW



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

HFRQRPLVWV WR LQVHUW LQWR D VLQJOH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ ZKLFK WKHQ


EHFDPH NQRZQ DV QHRFODVVLFDO DOO WKH IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ DW ILUVW
ODQG DQG ODERXU ODWHU DOVR FDSLWDO  WUHDWLQJ WKHP DOO QR ORQJHU DV 5L
FDUGR KDG GRQH DFFRUGLQJ WR D FOHDUO\ GHILQHG KLHUDUFKLFDO VXFFHV
VLRQ EXW DV EHLQJ RQ H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH OHYHO DQG RQ SHUIHFWO\ V\PPHW
ULFDO WHUPV
,W LV LPSRUWDQW WR VWUHVV WKLV ZHOOGHILQHG RUGHU LQ WKH ORJLFDO VH
TXHQFH LQ ZKLFK WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH ZDV H[WHQGHG IURP ODQG WR WKH
RWKHU IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ 7KH SULQFLSOH ZDV ILUVWO\ UDWKHU LQWXL
WLYHO\ H[WHQGHG IURP ODQG WR ODERXU 2QO\ ODWHU RQ ZDV LW DOVR H[
WHQGHG WR FDSLWDO VHH :LFNVHOO  DQG   ,QGHHG HYHQ LQ WKH
VL[WK HGLWLRQ RI KLV FHOHEUDWHG (FRQRPLFV WH[WERRN 3DXO 6DPXHOVRQ
 SS  II ZDV H[SRXQGLQJ KRZ WKH SULQFLSOH RI PDUJLQDO
SK\VLFDO SURGXFW GHWHUPLQHV WKH GLVWULEXWLYH VKDUHV RI LQFRPH LQ
WHUPV RI RQO\ WZR IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ ODQG DQG ODERXU
,Q WKHVH WHUPV ZH PD\ ZULWH WKH QHW QDWLRQDO SURGXFW RU QD
WLRQDO LQFRPH < DV D IXQFWLRQ DVVXPHG WR EH FRQWLQXRXV DQG GLI
IHUHQWLDEOH RI ODQG 7 DQG /DERXU / 


<

) 7/ 

DOO WKH TXDQWLWLHV EHLQJ H[SUHVVHG LQ SK\VLFDO WHUPV 7KH SURGXFW ZLOO
EH GLVWULEXWHG SDUWO\ WR WKH ODQGRZQHUV DQG SDUWO\ WR WKH ODERXUHUV
LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH REYLRXV DFFRXQWLQJ UHODWLRQVKLS


<

U7  Z/

ZKHUH U UHQW SHU XQLW RI ODQG DQG Z ZDJH UDWH ERWK EHLQJ
H[SUHVVHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH SK\VLFDO SURGXFW
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKH PDUJLQDO SULQFLSOH LI WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV LV
FRQGXFWHG E\ WKH ODQGRZQHUV WKHQ WKH ZDJH UDWH FDQQRW H[FHHG WKH
PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI WKH ODERXU XQLW H[SUHVVHG E\ WKH SDUWLDO GHULYD
WLYH RI < ZLWK UHVSHFW WR /


Z d w<w/

6LPLODUO\ LI WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG E\ WKH ZRUNHUV


WKHQ WKH XQLW UHQW FRXOG QRW H[FHHG WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI D XQLW RI
ODQG


U d w<w7

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



7KH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQDO SURGXFW WKXV GHSHQGV RQ ZKR LV


FRQGXFWLQJ WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV DQG WKHUHE\ JHWV WKH UHVLGXDO $V
PD\ EH UHDOL]HG WKLV GRHV QRW DSSHDU D SDUWLFXODUO\ HOHJDQW IRUPXOD
WLRQ
%XW D PDWKHPDWLFDOO\PLQGHG VFKRODU ZLOO LPPHGLDWHO\ QRWLFH
WKDW WKHUH LV D SDUWLFXODU FDVH ZKLFK LPPHGLDWHO\ VXJJHVWV LWVHOI IRU
HOHJDQFH $ WKHRUHP RI (XOHUV VWDWHV WKDW LI IXQFWLRQ ) ZHUH KRPR
JHQHRXV DQG OLQHDU LH RI WKH ILUVW GHJUHH  WKHQ DOO DV\PPHWU\ GLVDS
SHDUV VLQFH LQ WKLV FDVH WKH IROORZLQJ HTXDOLW\ ZRXOG KROG


<

w<w7 7  w<w/ /

7KH WHPSWDWLRQ WKDW QDWXUDOO\ FRPHV LV WR DVVXPH WKDW ) LV SUHFLVHO\ D


IXQFWLRQ RI WKLV W\SH VR DV WR PDNH HTXDOLW\  VDWLVILHG DQG WKXV
FRLQFLGHQWDO ZLWK  
,I PRUHRYHU ZH DVVXPH WKDW IXQFWLRQ ) LV FRQYH[ LH LWV ILUVW
GHULYDWLYHV DUH SRVLWLYH DQG LWV VHFRQG GHULYDWLYHV DUH QHJDWLYH  WKH
WKHRUHWLFDO SLFWXUH DFTXLUHV HYHQ JUHDWHU HOHJDQFH ,W WXUQV RXW WR LP
SO\ FRQVWDQW UHWXUQV WR VFDOH DQG GLPLQLVKLQJ UHWXUQV WR WKH YDULDWLRQ
RI WKH SURSRUWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH WZR IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ D SURFHVV
ZKLFK FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV D SKHQRPHQRQ RI VXEVWLWXWLRQ EHWZHHQ
WKH WZR IDFWRUV  ,Q WKLV ZD\ DQ\ DV\PPHWU\ GLVDSSHDUV :KRHYHU EH
WKH HQWUHSUHQHXU ZKR PD[LPLVHV KLV RZQ HDUQLQJV  DQG ZKDWHYHU EH
WKH LQLWLDO HQGRZPHQW RI WKH SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV D PDUNHW ZLWK IUHH
FRPSHWLWLRQ ZLOO OHDG WR VXFK IDFWRUV SULFHV LH WR D ZDJH UDWH DQG WR D
XQLW UHQW ZKLFK QRW RQO\ PD[LPLVH WKH SURGXFW EXW DOVR GLVWULEXWH WR
HDFK IDFWRU RI SURGXFWLRQ SUHFLVHO\ LWV SK\VLFDO PDUJLQDO SURGXFW
ZLWKRXW OHDYLQJ DQ\ SRVLWLYH RU QHJDWLYH UHVLGXDO WR DQ\RQH
2QH PLJKW QDWXUDOO\ WKLQN WKDW VXFK D VFKHPH FRXOG EH H[
WHQGHG RU DJDLQ ZLWK D GHFHSWLYHO\ FRQYLQFLQJVRXQGLQJ WHUPLQRORJ\
WKDW LW FRXOG EH JHQHUDOLVHG WR DQ\ QXPEHU RI IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ
,Q SDUWLFXODU RQH PLJKW WKLQN LW UDWKHU QDWXUDO WR H[WHQG LW WR SURGXF
WLRQ ZLWK FDSLWDO DV D IDFWRU RI SURGXFWLRQ
-DPHV 0HDGH  ZKHQ IRUPXODWLQJ KLV YHUVLRQ RI QHRFODVVLFDO
WKHRU\ DQG RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ VHW XS D QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ
IXQFWLRQ SUHFLVHO\ LQ WHUPV RI WKUHH IDFWRUV ODQG 7  ODERXU / DQG
FDSLWDO . 


<

) 7/. 



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

ZKHUH ) LV VXSSRVHG WR EH D OLQHDU KRPRJHQHRXV FRQWLQXRXV DQG


GLIIHUHQWLDEOH IXQFWLRQ ZKLFK VDWLVILHV (XOHUV WKHRUHP

< w<w7 7  w<w/ /  w<w. .
VR WKDW WKH QHW SURGXFW LV GLVWULEXWHG WR UHQWV ZDJHV DQG SURILWV
ZLWKRXW OHDYLQJ DQ\ UHVLGXDO ZKDWVRHYHU ,W LV VXIILFLHQW WR DGG WKDW
WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP LV LQ D UHJLPH RI SHUIHFW FRPSHWLWLRQ ZKDWHYHU
WKH LQLWLDO HQGRZPHQW RI IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ PD\ EH WR HQDEOH WKH
FRPSHWLWLYH SULFH PHFKDQLVP WR OHDG WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP WR UHDFK D
SRLQW RI HTXLOLEULXP ZLWK IXOO HPSOR\PHQW RI DOO WKH IDFWRUV RI
SURGXFWLRQ ZKLFK ZLOO EH ERWK HIILFLHQW DQG VWDEOH )RU JLYHQ WKH
DVVXPSWLRQV PDGH WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP JHQHUDWHV LQYHUVH PRQRWRQLF
UHODWLRQV EHWZHHQ WKH SK\VLFDO TXDQWLWLHV RI WKH YDULRXV IDFWRUV 7 /
. DQG WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ UHWXUQV SHU SK\VLFDO XQLW U
UHQW Z
ZDJH UDWH S UDWH RI SURILWV  7KH SULQFLSOH RI VXEVWLWXWLRQ DPRQJ
IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ ZLOO OHDG (XOHUV HTXDWLRQ  DQG WKH DFFRXQWLQJ
UHODWLRQ

< U7  Z/  S.
ZKHUH DOVR WKH UDWH RI SURILWV QRZ PDNHV LWV DSSHDUDQFH  WR FRLQFLGH
ZLWK HDFK RWKHU
,Q WKH SHULRG EHWZHHQ WKH WZR :RUOG :DUV WKH VWLPXOL HVSH
FLDOO\ LQ WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV WR VHHN FRQILUPDWLRQ RU DW DQ\ UDWH WR
SURFHHG WR HPSLULFDO DSSOLFDWLRQV DQG WHVWV OHG WR WZR QHZ GHYHORS
PHQWV  WR UHWXUQ WR IRFXVVLQJ RQ RQO\ WZR IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ
EXW QRZ ODERXU DQG FDSLWDO DQG QR ORQJHU ODQG   WR DGRSW D VSHFLILF
PDWKHPDWLFDO IRUPXODWLRQ IRU WKH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ VR DV WR EH
DEOH WR FDUU\ RXW HPSLULFDO HODERUDWLRQV RQ WKH GDWD WKDW ZHUH EHFRP
LQJ DYDLODEOH
7KH PDWKHPDWLFDO IXQFWLRQ WKDW JDWKHUHG WKH PRVW UHVRXQGLQJ
VXFFHVV ZDV WKH IROORZLQJ


<

$/ . 

ZKHUH $ D DQG E DUH SDUDPHWHUV WR EH HVWLPDWHG DQG WKH VXP D  E


ZDV H[SHFWHG WR EH HTXDO WR  RU LQ RWKHU ZRUGV
E  D

VR DV WR PDNH WKH IXQFWLRQ VDWLVI\ (XOHUV WKHRUHP 7KLV IXQFWLRQ
EHFDPH NQRZQ DV WKH &REE'RXJODV SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ DIWHU WKH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



QDPHV RI WKH WZR $PHULFDQ DXWKRUV ZKR XVHG LW &REE DQG 'RXJODV
  DOWKRXJK LW KDG DOUHDG\ EHHQ DQWLFLSDWHG E\ .QXW :LFNVHOO LQ
KLV UHYLHZ UHSURGXFHG LQ :LFNVHOO  S  RI D ERRN E\ 'U
cNHUPDQ
7KH LQWHUHVWLQJ IHDWXUH RI  DV PD\ UHDGLO\ EH VHHQ LV WKDW
LQ FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUH WKH IDFWRUV SULFHV LH Z IRU ODERXU DQG S IRU
FDSLWDO DUH GHWHUPLQHG DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU PDUJLQDO SURGXFW LH XQ
GHU FRQGLWLRQV RI IUHH FRPSHWLWLRQ  SDUDPHWHU D FRPHV WR WDNH XS WKH
PHDQLQJ RI WKH VKDUH RI QHW QDWLRQDO LQFRPH WKDW LV GLVWULEXWHG WR
ZDJHV DQG SDUDPHWHU E  D WDNHV XS WKH PHDQLQJ RI WKH VKDUH
RI QHW QDWLRQDO LQFRPH ZKLFK LV GLVWULEXWHG WR SURILWV
7KH WZR GLVWULEXWLYH VKDUHV HPHUJH IURP WKH &REE'RXJODV
IXQFWLRQ DV WHFKQRORJLFDO FRQVWDQWV 7KLV PHDQV WKDW DQ\ DWWHPSW WR
FKDQJH WKHP IRU H[DPSOH LQ WKH FDVH WKH\ ZHUH WKRXJKW WR EH XQGH
VLUDEOH ZRXOG LPSO\ LQWHUIHULQJ ZLWK WKH FRPSHWLWLYH SULFH PHFKD
QLVP WR ZKLFK WKH HIILFLHQF\ RI WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP LV HQWUXVWHG
 &KDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\

2QH FDQQRW GHQ\ WR WKLV QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ


WKH IDVFLQDWLRQ RI IRUPDO DQDO\WLFDO HOHJDQFH SOHDVLQJ V\PPHWU\ DQG
DOVR WKDW VHQVH RI VDWLVIDFWLRQ WKDW FRPHV IURP WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI
PDWKHPDWLFDO WRROV ZKLFK JLYH D FHUWDLQ LPSUHVVLRQ RI EHLQJ PRUH
VFLHQWLILF WKDQ WKH SODLQ SURVH H[SRVLWLRQ RI WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRP
LVWV  3DUWLFXODUO\ DWWUDFWLYH LV WKH LPSUHVVLRQ WKDW WKH DQDO\WLFDO WRROV
KDYH VXFFHHGHG LQ UHSUHVHQWLQJ DQ HFRQRPLF V\VWHP ZLWK FKDUDFWHUL
VWLFV WKDW VDWLVI\ ERWK HIILFLHQF\ IURP D WHFKQLFDO SRLQW RI YLHZ DQG
MXVWLFH IURP D GLVWULEXWLYH SRLQW RI YLHZ %HKLQG LW WKH TXHVWLRQ RI
FRXUVH UHPDLQV RSHQ RI WKH RULJLQDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH UHVRXUFHV
FDSLWDO DQG ODQG ZKLFK DUH DFFHSWHG DV JLYHQ 2QH PLJKW KRZHYHU
WKLQN DV 0HDGH GLG TXLWH H[SOLFLWO\ WR FRQIHU WR WKH SXEOLF
$XWKRULW\ WKH WDVN RI UHGLVWULEXWLQJ WKH DYDLODEOH UHVRXUFHV LQ IXOILO
PHQW RI LWV VRFLDO UROH $OO WKLV EHLQJ VDLG WKHUH FDQ EH QR GRXEW WKDW
DV IDU DV WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQFRPH LV FRQFHUQHG WKH
VFHQDULR DSSHDUV TXLWH VDWLVIDFWRU\ ,Q FRQGLWLRQV RI SHUIHFWO\ IUHH
FRPSHWLWLRQ HDFK IDFWRU RI SURGXFWLRQ ILQGV IXOO HPSOR\PHQW WKDQNV
WR LWV LQILQLWH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI VXEVWLWXWLRQ ZLWK WKH RWKHU IDFWRUV RI
SURGXFWLRQ ZKLOH DW WKH VDPH WLPH UHFHLYLQJ LWV PDUJLQDO SURGXFW



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

ZKLFK FRUUHVSRQGV WR LWV WHFKQLFDO FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH SURGXFWLRQ


SURFHVV )XUWKHUPRUH WKH VFKHPH KDV WKH LQWHUHVWLQJ WUDLW RI UHTXLULQJ
QR GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLW\ RI FDSLWDO UHOHYDQW
WR WKH VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDO DQG WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLW\ RI FDSLWDO
UHOHYDQW WR VRFLHW\ DV D ZKROH VRFLDO PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLW\ RI
FDSLWDO  ,W ZDV PRUH RU OHVV LQ WKHVH WHUPV WKDW LQ D VHULHV RI SDSHUV
SXEOLVKHG LQ WKH FORVLQJ \HDUV RI WKH  FHQWXU\ -RKQ %DWHV &ODUN
FKDPSLRQHG WKLV YLHZ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWLRQ &ODUN   
7KH H[WUHPH FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKLV DSSURDFK FDQ EH VHHQ IRU H[
DPSOH LQ 6FKQHLGHU   ZKR DSSOLHG WKH QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ
IXQFWLRQ DV IRUPDOLVHG LQ   DW WKH OHYHO RI WKH VLQJOH ILUP DQG WUHDWHG
WKH PRGHO DV LI HDFK ILUP HIIHFWLYHO\ KDG DYDLODEOH WR LW D FRQWLQXRXV
GLIIHUHQWLDEOH FRQYH[ SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ ZLWK DOO WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI
LQVWDQW DGDSWDWLRQ WKDW DUH LPSOLFLW LQ VXFK IRUPXODWLRQ
2I FRXUVH QRW DOO WKH QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV KDYH EHHQ DV QD
LYHO\ HQWKXVLDVWLF DV -RKQ %DWHV &ODUN RU (ULFK 6FKQHLGHU <HW WKH
ZLGHO\ KHOG FRQYLFWLRQ KDV EHHQ WKDW GHVSLWH LWV VLPSOLFLW\ WKH PRGHO
FRXOG H[SUHVV LPSRUWDQW DVSHFWV RI FRPSHWLWLYH HFRQRPLF UHDOLW\
7R FLWH D IHZ DXWKRULWDWLYH H[DPSOHV -DPHV 0HDGH LQ KLV SUHVHQ
WDWLRQ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHO IHOW MXVWLILHG LQ VWDWLQJ
WK

,W ZRXOG EH YHU\ GHVLUDEOH WR DOORZ IRU WKH H[LVWHQFH RI PDQ\ GLI


IHUHQW FRQVXPSWLRQ JRRGV DQG FDSLWDO JRRGV >@ %XW , KDYH D
VWURQJ KXQFK WKDW WKH PDLQ UHVXOW ZRXOG EH QRW YHU\ VXEVWDQWLDOO\
WR DOWHU WKH EDVLF FRQFOXVLRQV RI WKH SUHVHQW DQDO\VLV EXW YHU\
JUHDWO\ WR LQFUHDVH WKH SRVVLELOLW\ RI VXEVWLWXWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH YDUL
RXV IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ 0HDGH  S [ 

3DXO 6DPXHOVRQ LQ KLV WXUQ LQ WKH VL[WK HGLWLRQ RI KLV FHOHEUDWHG


(FRQRPLFV WH[WERRN ZDV FRQILGHQW HQRXJK WR DVVHUW WKDW
>@ &ODUNV QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI GLVWULEXWLRQ DOWKRXJK VLPSOL
ILHG LV ORJLFDOO\ FRPSOHWH DQG D WUXH SLFWXUH RI LGHDOLVHG FRPSHWL
WLRQ 6DPXHOVRQ  S  

:H PXVW JUDQW WKDW 6DPXHOVRQ DOZD\V SOD\HG D OHDGLQJ UROH LQ


WKH HQGHDYRXU WR H[WHQG -RKQ %DWHV &ODUNV WKHRU\ WR WKH JHQHUDO FDVH
:KHQ PXOWLVHFWRU HFRQRPLF PRGHOV EHJDQ WR EH IRUPXODWHG LQ WKH
HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH 6DPXHOVRQ  SUHVHQWHG DQ HFRQRPLF VFKHPH
ZLWK D SOXUDOLW\ RI FDSLWDO JRRGV ZKLFK DV D ZKROH EHKDYHG H[DFWO\

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



OLNH &ODUNV PRGHO +H SUHVHQWHG KLV DQDO\WLF FRQVWUXFWLRQ ZLWK WKH


DLP RI GHPRQVWUDWLQJ WKDW &ODUNV PRGHO SURYHG D XVHIXO DQG VLJQLIL
FDQW SDUDEOH DEOH WR H[SUHVV WKH HVVHQWLDO IHDWXUHV RI PRUH FRPSOL
FDWHG SKHQRPHQD +LV FRQMHFWXUH ZDV WKDW FRPSOH[ DV UHDOLW\ PD\ EH
LW ZDV EDVLFDOO\ VXFK DV ZRXOG OHDG WR WKH VDPH RXWFRPHV DV WKRVH GH
SLFWHG E\ -RKQ %DWHV &ODUN
5REHUW 6RORZ   ZKLOH H[WHQGLQJ KLV DQDO\VLV WR FDVHV ZKHUH
WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO FRQGLWLRQV DUH QR ORQJHU VR IDYRXUDEOH DV WR JLYH ULVH
WR FRQWLQXRXV DQG SHUIHFWO\ GLIIHUHQWLDEOH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV EXW
JLYH ULVH WR GLVFRQWLQXLWLHV ZDV QHYHUWKHOHVV FRQYLQFHG WR KDYH IRXQG
LQ ,UYLQJ )LVKHUV UDWH RI UHWXUQ DQ H[SUHVVLRQ IRU WKH JDLQ WKDW WKH
HFRQRPLF V\VWHP DV D ZKROH FDQ GHULYH IURP WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI D IXU
WKHU GRVH RI FDSLWDO ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV KH VDZ LQ )LVKHUV UDWH RI UHWXUQ D
PRGHUQ H[SUHVVLRQ LQ WHUPV RI OLQHDU PRGHOV ZLWK PXOWLSOLFLW\ RI
SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV RI WKH PRUH WUDGLWLRQDO QRWLRQ RI D VRFLDO
PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO 1HLWKHU 6DPXHOVRQ QRU 6RORZ UHDOLVHG DW
WKH RXWVHW DV ZLOO EH SRLQWHG RXW LQ D PRPHQW MXVW KRZ UHVWULFWLYH
WKH DVVXPSWLRQV ZRXOG KDYH WR EH LQ RUGHU WKDW VXFK FRQFOXVLRQV PD\
KROG

 7KH HPHUJHQFH RI D .H\QHVLDQ WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ


IROORZLQJ WKH UHVXPSWLRQ RI WKH WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK

,W ZDV WKH UHYLYDO DIWHU D FHQWXU\ORQJ VOXPEHU RI WKH WKHRU\ RI


HFRQRPLF JURZWK WR ZKLFK WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV KDG GHYRWHG VR
PXFK DWWHQWLRQ DOEHLW ZLWK SHVVLPLVWLF YLHZV WKDW UHDZDNHQHG WKH
GLVFXVVLRQV RI WKH WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ :LWK WKH H[SOLFLW
DLP RI H[WHQGLQJ .H\QHVLDQ PDFURHFRQRPLF UHODWLRQVKLSV WR WKH ORQJ
UXQ +DUURG  DQG  GLVFRYHUHG DQG 'RPDU  WKHQ
FRQILUPHG LQ PRUH DQDO\WLFDO WHUPV WKDW ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR WKH
LQGXVWULDOLVHG HFRQRPLHV ZKHUH SDUWLFXODUO\ UHOHYDQW DUH EHFRPLQJ WKH
WZR IDFWRUV ODERXU DQG FDSLWDO D SURFHVV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK LQ
RUGHU WR WDNH SODFH LQ G\QDPLF HTXLOLEULXP VWHDG\ JURZWK ZLWK IXOO
HPSOR\PHQW  UHTXLUHV WKH IXOILOPHQW RI D VLPSOH LQWHUHVWLQJ EXW
UREXVW HTXDWLRQ QDPHO\

J VY



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

ZKHUH J LV WKH QDWXUDO SHUFHQWDJH UDWH RI JURZWK V LV WKH VDYLQJQHW


LQFRPH UDWLR DQG Y LV WKH FDSLWDOQHW LQFRPH UDWLR 7KH QDWXUDO
JURZWK UDWH ZDV GHILQHG E\ WKH VXP


Q  O

ZKHUH Q SHUFHQWDJH UDWH RI JURZWK RI WKH ZRUNLQJ SRSXODWLRQ DQG


O UDWH RI QHXWUDO WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV GHILQHG DV WKH SHUFHQWDJH UDWH
RI JURZWK RI ODERXU SURGXFWLYLW\ DW FRQVWDQW Y UDWLR LH DVVXPLQJ
WKDW QHW SURGXFW DQG WRWDO FDSLWDO JURZ DW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH UDWH 
(TXDWLRQ  LV D VLQJOH HTXDWLRQ EXW FRQWDLQV WKUHH PDJQLWXGHV
J V DQG Y :KLFK RI WKHP FDQ UHDVRQDEO\ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV WKH XQ
NQRZQ" +DUURG WRRN QR VWDQG RQ WKH PDWWHU ,QHYLWDEO\ GLVFXVVLRQ
VZHOOHG 'LIIHUHQW WKHRUHWLFLDQV EHJDQ WR H[SORUH GLIIHUHQW DYHQXHV
1LFKRODV .DOGRU  SURSRVHG D VFHQDULR RI GLVWLQFWO\ FODV
VLFDO.H\QHVLDQ LQVSLUDWLRQ ZKLFK ZH PLJKW V\QWKHWLFDOO\ RXWOLQH DV
IROORZ LQ DQ HFRQRPLF V\VWHP LQ FDSLWDOLVWLF H[SDQVLRQ XS WR WKH
SRLQW DW ZKLFK D VXIILFLHQW GHJUHH RI SULPLWLYH DFFXPXODWLRQ KDV EHHQ
DFKLHYHG LW LV WKH UDWH RI JURZWK RI WKH V\VWHP LH J DV LQ WKH FODVVL
FDO PRGHOV WKDW PXVW EH FRQVLGHUHG DV WKH XQNQRZQ PDJQLWXGH LQ
HTXDWLRQ  :RUNHUV DUH DYDLODEOH LQ SUDFWLFDOO\ XQOLPLWHG TXDQWLWLHV
DW D PRUH RU OHVV FRQVWDQW ZDJH UDWH DV LQ D W\SLFDOO\ FODVVLFDO FRQFHS
WLRQ 7KXV LW LV WHFKQLFDO FRQVWDQW Y DQG WKH VDYLQJV SRVVLELOLW\ RI WKH
HFRQRPLF V\VWHP V WKDW HQGRJHQRXVO\ GHWHUPLQH WKH UDWH RI JURZWK
DFFRUGLQJ WR D PHFKDQLVP WKDW KDG PHDQZKLOH DOVR EHHQ SRLQWHG RXW
E\ $UWKXU /HZLV  
+RZHYHU DFFRUGLQJ WR .DOGRU RQFH WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI FDSLWDO
KDV DEVRUEHG WKH HQWLUH TXDQWLW\ RI ODERXU DYDLODEOH D VHFRQG SKDVH
RSHQV XS 7KH JURZWK UDWH RI WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP FHDVHV WR EH GH
WHUPLQHG E\ WKH VKDUH RI LQFRPH JRLQJ WR VDYLQJV DQG VWDUWV WR EH VHW
E\ WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI JURZWK RI WKH ZRUNLQJ SRSXODWLRQ DQG RI WHFK
QRORJLFDO NQRZKRZ ZKLFK EHFRPH WKH ERWWOHQHFN WR WKH JURZWK RI
WKH V\VWHP 7KH FRQVHTXHQFH ZLOO EH WKDW ZDJHV ZLOO KDYH WR ULVH ,Q
WKLV VHFRQG SKDVH RI JURZWK  WKH UROH RI WKH XQNQRZQ PDJQLWXGH
ZLOO EH WDNHQ RYHU E\ WKH VDYLQJLQFRPH UDWLR V %XW WKLV PDJQLWXGH LV
D FRPSRVLWH RQH DV LW FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV D ZHLJKWHG DYHUDJH RI DW
OHDVW WZR SURSHQVLWLHV WR VDYH

V V :<  V 3< 
Z

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



ZKHUH VZ LV WKH ZRUNHUV DYHUDJH SURSHQVLW\ WR VDYH DQG VS LV WKH


FDSLWDOLVWV DYHUDJH SURSHQVLW\ WR VDYH ZKLOH :< DQG 3< DUH WKH
GLVWULEXWLYH VKDUHV RI ZDJHV DQG SURILWV UHVSHFWLYHO\ 7KH VLPSOHVW
FDVH LV WKH FODVVLFDO RQH ZKHUH VZ  LH ZKHUH WKH ZRUNHUV VDYH
QRWKLQJ DOO VDYLQJV RI WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP EHLQJ FDUULHG RXW E\ WKH
FDSLWDOLVWV ,W LV LPPHGLDWHO\ HYLGHQW LQ WKLV FDVH WKDW WKHUH LV RQO\ RQH
HTXLOLEULXP UDWH RI SURILWV S 3.  ZKLFK EHFRPHV WKH XQNQRZQ 


JV 
S

,Q WKLV HTXDWLRQ ZKLFK KDV EHFRPH NQRZQ DV WKH &DPEULGJH


HTXDWLRQ  WKH FDXVDO FKDLQ JRHV IURP J H[RJHQRXV WR S XQNQRZQ 
7KLV HTXDWLRQ KDV HPHUJHG DV VXUSULVLQJO\ UREXVW VHH WKH IRUPXOD
WLRQV RI 3DVLQHWWL  WKDW H[WHQGV LWV YDOLGLW\ WR WKH FDVH LQ ZKLFK
WKH ZRUNHUV SURSHQVLW\ WR VDYH LV SRVLWLYH  ,W GHWHUPLQHV WKURXJK
UHODWLRQ   WKH WZR GLVWULEXWLYH VKDUHV LQ D ORJLFDO VHTXHQFH ZKLFK
LV VLPLODU EXW JRLQJ LQ WKH RSSRVLWH GLUHFWLRQ WR WKH 5LFDUGLDQ RQH
ILUVW RI DOO SURILWV DUH GHWHUPLQHG DQG WKHQ UHVLGXDOO\ ZDJHV
7KH UHVXOW KDV EHHQ D .DOGRULDQ WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
ZKLFK .DOGRU KLPVHOI KDV FDOOHG .H\QHVLDQ 7KLV WKHRU\ FRQILUPV
WKH FODVVLFDO LGHD RI D EDVLF DV\PPHWU\ DPRQJ WKH IDFWRUV RI SURGXF
WLRQ DQG DV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LQFRPH EXW LW UH
YHUVHV LWV GLUHFWLRQ ,W LV WKH FDWHJRU\ RI SURILWV WKDW LV GHWHUPLQHG LQ
WKH ILUVW LQVWDQFH E\ WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ QHFHVVDU\
WR VXVWDLQ WKH JLYHQ JURZWK RI WKH ZRUNLQJ SRSXODWLRQ DQG WKH JLYHQ
JURZWK RI SURGXFWLYLW\ 7KH FDWHJRU\ RI ZDJHV WKHQ DEVRUEV DOO WKH
UHVLGXDO $W WKH VDPH WLPH .DOGRUV YLVLRQ XQOLNH WKH &ODVVLFDO RQH
DSSHDUV DV VXUSULVLQJO\ RSWLPLVWLF 2QFH WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV RI DFFXPX
ODWLRQ DUH VDWLVILHG DOO LQFUHDVHV RI SURGXFWLYLW\ LH DOO WKH IUXLWV RI
WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV WUDQVODWH WKHPVHOYHV LQWR DQ LQFUHDVH RI ZDJHV
ZKLFK RYHU WLPH ZLOO JURZ DW H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH UDWH DV SURGXFWLYLW\
$FWXDOO\ WKH LGHD XQGHUO\LQJ WKLV WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
WKH LGHD WKDW LW LV DFFXPXODWLRQ LH LQYHVWPHQWV WKDW GHWHUPLQH
SURILWV DQG QRW YLFH YHUVD KDG DOUHDG\ EHHQ DGYDQFHG LQ WKH V
E\ WKH 3ROLVK HFRQRPLVW 0LFKDO .DOHFNL  DQG   ZLWKLQ D VR
FLDO FRQWH[W LQ ZKLFK KH FRQVLGHUHG XQHPSOR\PHQW GXH WR ODFN RI HI
IHFWLYH GHPDQG .DOHFNL KDG DQWLFLSDWHG .DOGRU DQG LQ PDQ\ ZD\V
.H\QHV DV ZHOO EXW KLV LGHDV ZHUH QRW WDNHQ XS



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

2QH PD\ DVFULEH WR WKLV OLQH RI WKLQNLQJ DW OHDVW LQ EURDG WHUPV


DOVR WKH LGHDV RI 3LHUR 6UDIID WKH ,WDOLDQ HFRQRPLVW ZKR KDG HPLJUDWHG
WR &DPEULGJH LQ WKH ODWH V DQG EHORQJHG WR WKH JURXS RI HFRQR
PLVWV ZKR ZRUNHG LQ FORVH FRQWDFW ZLWK .H\QHV
6UDIID SXEOLVKHG LQ  DIWHU D JRRG WKLUW\ \HDUV JHVWDWLRQ D
WUXO\ QRWDEOH ERRN VKRUW EXW H[WUDRUGLQDULO\ FRPSDFW DQG GHQVH ZLWK
LGHDV DQG LQVLJKWV +H KDG GHYRWHG YLUWXDOO\ DQ HQWLUH OLIHWLPH WR SUH
SDUH DQG SXEOLVK WKH FULWLFDO HGLWLRQ RI 5LFDUGRV ZRUNV ,Q KLV ERRN
KH SUHVHQWHG D PRGHUQ YHUVLRQ RI WKH 5LFDUGLDQ WKHRU\ RI UHQW ERWK LQ
WKH H[WHQVLYH DQG LQ WKH LQWHQVLYH IRUP %\ DGRSWLQJ D PXOWLVHFWRU
SURGXFWLRQ VFKHPH 6UDIID UHVXPHG WKH FODVVLFDO FRQFHSWLRQ RI D JOREDO
QHW SURGXFWLRQ FRQVLGHUHG DV D VXUSOXV WKDW UHPDLQV DIWHU WKH UH
SODFHPHQW RI WKH PHDQV RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG GHPRQVWUDWHG KRZ
ZLWKLQ VXFK D FRQFHSWLRQ LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WDNHV SODFH DFFRUGLQJ
WR D SURFHVV ZKLFK DOWKRXJK PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG WKDQ WKH RQH FRQ
FHLYHG E\ 5LFDUGR LV QHYHUWKHOHVV RI WKH VDPH W\SH LH LW LPSOLHV
DV\PPHWULFDO UHODWLRQVKLSV 5HQWV DULVH IURP WKH WHFKQLFDO QRQ
XQLIRUPLW\ RI WKH DYDLODEOH QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DV 5LFDUGR KDG GLVFRY
HUHG IURP WKH RXWVHW 7KHUHIRUH WKH\ GR QRW HQWHU LQWR WKH GHWHUPLQD
WLRQ RI FRVWV DQG SULFHV  7KH\ HPHUJH DV QHW GLIIHUHQWLDO JDLQV IRU WKH
RZQHUV RI WKH WHFKQLFDOO\ PRUH SURGXFWLYH QDWXUDO UHVRXUFHV DV FRP
SDUHG ZLWK WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ PDUJLQDO UHVRXUFHV 7KH\ FDQ WKXV EH
FRQVLGHUHG VHSDUDWHO\ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR ZKDW LV KDSSHQLQJ LQ WKH UHVW RI
WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV LQ WKLV FRQQHFWLRQ VHH WKH GHWDLOHG DQDO\VLV E\
4XDGULR &XU]LR  DQG   $V WR SURILWV DQG ZDJHV LH WR WKH
WZR RWKHU GLVWULEXWLYH YDULDEOHV 6UDIID GHPRQVWUDWHG WKDW WKH HFR
QRPLF VFKHPH RI SURGXFWLRQ LV QRW LQ LWVHOI DEOH WR GHWHUPLQH WKHP
ERWK FRQWUDU\ WR WKH WHQHWV RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRULVWV  2QH RI WKHVH
WZR GLVWULEXWLYH YDULDEOHV HLWKHU SURILWV RU ZDJHV FDQQRW EXW EH GH
WHUPLQHG E\ UHODWLRQVKLSV WKDW DUH H[RJHQRXV WR WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURF
HVV $V ZLOO EH UHPHPEHUHG 5LFDUGR ZLWK DOO WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV
KDG SRVHG WKH SUREOHP SUHFLVHO\ LQ WKHVH WHUPV +H KDG WKRXJKW RI DQ
H[WHUQDO GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI ZDJHV %\ FRQWUDVW 6UDIID OLNH .DOGRU VLQ
JOHG RXW WKH UDWH RI SURILWV DV WKH YDULDEOH WR EH GHWHUPLQHG H[RJH
QRXVO\ WR WKH SURGXFWLRQ SURFHVV 6UDIID GLG QRW KRZHYHU VXEVFULEH WR
WKH .DOGRULDQ WKHRU\ WKRXJK QRW H[SOLFLWO\ UHMHFWLQJ LW QRU GHQ\LQJ
LWV FRPSDWLELOLW\ ZLWK KLV RZQ VFKHPH  :KDW KH UDWKHU GLG VWUHVV ZDV
WKDW YDULRXV DOWHUQDWLYH FKDQQHOV PLJKW EH WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ
+H PHQWLRQHG E\ ZD\ RI H[DPSOH WKH SURFHVVHV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH GH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



WHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH UDWH RI LQWHUHVW LQ WKH ILQDQFLDO PDUNHWV WKHUHE\


FRPLQJ FORVHU WR WKH LGHDV RI .H\QHVV WKDQ WR WKRVH RI .DOGRUV 
,Q DQ\ FDVH 6UDIID PRVW LPSRUWDQW FRQWULEXWLRQ ZDV WR RSHQ XS
WKH LVVXH RI WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI WKH UDWH RI SURILWV DQG ZLWK LW WKH
ZKROH SUREOHP RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WR DQ LQYHVWLJDWLRQ WKDW GLG
QRW VWRS VKRUW DW SXUHO\ HFRQRPLF FRQVLGHUDWLRQV EXW ZRXOG JR EH
\RQG WKHP XS WR LQFOXGLQJ WKH HQWLUH LQVWLWXWLRQDO RUJDQLVDWLRQ RI DQ
HFRQRPLF V\VWHP DV D VXEMHFW RI DQDO\VLV LQ RUGHU WR DFKLHYH D VDWLV
IDFWRU\ H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
8QIRUWXQDWHO\ DIWHU DQ LQLWLDO SHULRG RI SRVVLEO\ HYHQ H[FHV
VLYH HQWKXVLDVP 6UDIIDV IRUPXODWLRQV FRQFHUQLQJ LQFRPH GLVWULEX
WLRQ ZHUH OLNH WKRVH RI .DOHFNLV HLWKHU IRUJRWWHQ RU OHIW RQ WKH VLGH
OLQH RI WKH HFRQRPLVWV DWWHQWLRQ

 5HWXUQ WR WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\

,Q WKH PHDQWLPH WKHUH KDV EHHQ LQVWHDG D VXUSULVLQJ UHYLYDO RI


QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\
,Q WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH +DUURG'RPDU HTXDWLRQ WKHUH LV LQ
IDFW D WKLUG SRVVLEOH OLQH WKDW PD\ EH WDNHQ (TXDWLRQ  FRQWDLQV D
WKLUG PDJQLWXGH Y WKH WHFKQRORJLFDO PDJQLWXGH 1HRFODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLVWV LQWHUSUHWHG LW DV LI LQ WKH +DUURG'RPDU PRGHO LW UHSUH
VHQWHG WKH FDVH RI IL[HG FRHIILFLHQWV $QG VLQFH Y LWVHOI FDQQRW EH
FRQVLGHUHG DV IL[HG LW VRXQGHG REYLRXV WKDW SUHFLVHO\ Y VKRXOG EH WKH
DSSURSULDWH PDJQLWXGH WR EH WDNHQ DV WKH XQNQRZQ LQ HTXDWLRQ 
,Q D ZHOONQRZQ DUWLFOH LQ  S   6RORZ H[SOLFLWO\ VWDWHG
WKH LQWHQWLRQ WR SURSRVH D PRGHO WKDW DFFHSWV DOO WKH DVVXPSWLRQV RI
+DUURG'RPDU H[FHSW WKDW RI IL[HG SURSRUWLRQV DPRQJ WKH IDFWRUV
,Q HIIHFW KRZHYHU KH GLG DGG PDQ\ RWKHU DVVXPSWLRQV WKDW KDG QRW
EHHQ PDGH E\ +DUURG DQG 'RPDU 6RORZ LQWURGXFHG WKH H[LVWHQFH RI
D QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ ZLWK WKH IDFWRUV ODERXU DQG FDSL
WDO DV LWV DUJXPHQWV


<

) . / 

ZKLFK KDG DOO WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV GHVFULEHG LQ 6HFWLRQ  DERYH ,W LV


HDV\ WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW WKXV LQWHUSUHWHG WKH +DUURG'RPDU HTXD



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

WLRQ ZLWK J DQG V IL[HG JHQHUDWHV DQ HTXLOLEULXP VROXWLRQ ZLWK IXOO


HPSOR\PHQW RI WKH WZR SURGXFWLRQ IDFWRUV . DQG / ZKDWHYHU EH
WKHLU LQLWLDO HQGRZPHQWV WKDQNV WR WKH LQILQLWH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI
VXEVWLWXWLRQ EHWZHHQ FDSLWDO DQG ODERXU LPSOLFLW LQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO
SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ  DQG ZLWK LGHDO HTXDOLWLHV RI IDFWRU UHWXUQV DQG
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLWLHV ,I WKH ZRUNLQJ SRSXODWLRQ
LQFUHDVHV DW JURZWK UDWH Q DQG FDSLWDO LQFUHDVHV E\ D IL[HG SURSRUWLRQ
V RI WKH QHW QDWLRQDO SURGXFW WKHQ WKH LQYHUVH PRQRWRQLF
UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ IDFWRUV SULFHV DQG UHVSHFWLYH SK\VLFDO TXDQWLWLHV
ZLOO HQVXUH FRQYHUJHQFH RI WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP WR D VWDEOH ORQJUXQ
G\QDPLF SDWK DORQJ ZKLFK WKH +DUURG'RPDU HTXDWLRQ LV DOZD\V
VDWLVILHG 6RORZ KDG LQ WKLV ZD\ UHVXPHG WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI
LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG KDG JUDIWHG LW RQWR WKH +DUURG'RPDU PRGHO
RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK $ VLPLODU H[HUFLVH ZDV LQGHSHQGHQWO\ GRQH E\
6ZDQ 
7KLQJV JUHZ VRPHZKDW PRUH FRPSOH[ ZLWK WKH +DUURGLDQ SUH
RFFXSDWLRQ FRQFHUQLQJ WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV ,Q +DUURGV PRGHO WKH LQ
WURGXFWLRQ RI WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV DSSHDUV LQ D YHU\ VLPSOH DQG QDWXUDO
ZD\ DV DQ LQFUHDVH DW WKH VDPH SHUFHQWDJH UDWH RI SHU FDSLWD FDSLWDO
DQG RI SHU FDSLWD QHW SURGXFW ,Q WKH QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHO RQ WKH RWKHU
KDQG EHFDXVH RI WKH VXSSRVHG SHUIHFW V\PPHWU\ DPRQJ WKH IDFWRUV RI
SURGXFWLRQ H[WHUQDOO\ LPSRVHG DV ZH DUJXHG DERYH  WKH LQWURGXF
WLRQ RI D YDULDWLRQ LQ WHFKQLFDO NQRZKRZ JLYHV ULVH WR WKH SRVVLELOLW\
RI FRQFHLYLQJ RI WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV LQ WKUHH GLIIHUHQW ZD\V DFFRUGLQJ
WR ZKHWKHU LW LV VHHQ DV LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI ODERXU ODERXU
DXJPHQWLQJ  RU DV LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI FDSLWDO FDSLWDO
DXJPHQWLQJ  RU DV LQFUHDVLQJ WKH SURGXFWLYLW\ RI WKH ZKROH IXQFWLRQ
) 7R HDFK RI WKHVH WKUHH W\SHV RI WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV WKHUH FRUUH
VSRQGV D SDUWLFXODU QRWLRQ RI QHXWUDOLW\ 7KHVH WKUHH GLIIHUHQW W\SHV
RI QHXWUDOLW\ KDYH EHFRPH NQRZQ DV +DUURG QHXWUDOLW\ ZKLFK LP
SOLHV SHU FDSLWD SURGXFWLRQ LQFUHDVLQJ ZLWK D FRQVWDQW FDSLWDOLQFRPH
UDWLR  6RORZ QHXWUDOLW\ ZKLFK LPSOLHV LQFUHDVLQJ SURGXFWLRQ SHU
SK\VLFDO XQLW RI FDSLWDO ZLWK D FRQVWDQW ODERXULQFRPH UDWLR DQG
+LFNV QHXWUDOLW\ ZKLFK LPSOLHV LQFUHDVLQJ SK\VLFDO SURGXFWLYLWLHV
RI ERWK IDFWRUV ZLWK DQ XQFKDQJLQJ UDWLR EHWZHHQ WKHLU PDUJLQDO
SURGXFWLYLWLHV 
$OO WKLV PD\ VRXQG UDWKHU FRPSOLFDWHG EXW LW OHQGV LWVHOI WR D
WUXO\ HOHJDQW PDWKHPDWLFDO H[SRVLWLRQ ZKLFK VHHPV WR FRQYH\ D VHQVH
RI ZLGH JHQHUDOLW\ +DUURGV FDVH ZRXOG DSSHDU WR EH DV RQH RI WKUHH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



SRVVLEOH SDUWLFXODU FDVHV 7KH IDFW LV KRZHYHU WKDW WKH FDVH RI WHFKQL
FDO SURJUHVV j OD +DUURG NQRZQ DV ODERXUDXJPHQWLQJ DQG SUH
VHQWHG LQ +DUURGV H[SRVLWLRQ DV WKH PRVW REYLRXV VLPSOH DQG QDWXUDO
FDVH DFWXDOO\ WXUQV RXW WR EH WKH RQO\ RQH FRPSDWLEOH ZLWK ORQJUXQ
JURZWK DW D VWHDG\ UDWH 7KH WZR RWKHU W\SHV RI QHXWUDOLW\ GR QRW LQ
JHQHUDO OHDG WR DQ\ UHJXODU RU LQ DQ\ FDVH WR DQ\ LQWHUHVWLQJ G\QDPLF
WUHQG
,W KDV KRZHYHU EHHQ GLVFRYHUHG WKDW LQ WKH YHU\ SDUWLFXODU FDVH
RI D SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ RI WKH &REE'RXJODV W\SH DOO WKUHH W\SHV RI
QHXWUDOLW\ WKLV LV DQRWKHU RI WKH ZRQGHUV RI WKH &REE'RXJODV IXQF
WLRQ FDQ EH UHSUHVHQWHG E\ H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH DQDO\WLFDO H[SUHVVLRQ DO
WKRXJK WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI LWV SDUDPHWHUV ZRXOG KDYH WR EH GLIIHUHQW
LQ HDFK RI WKH WKUHH FDVHV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV DOO WKUHH FDVHV FDQ EH UH
GXFHG WR WKH VLQJOH FDVH RI QHXWUDOLW\ +DUURGV FDVH  UHOHYDQW IRU
HTXLOLEULXP JURZWK DW D VWHDG\ JURZWK UDWH VHH LQ WKLV FRQQHFWLRQ
$OOHQ  FK  
)URP WKH V RQZDUG LW KDV EHHQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI
GLVWULEXWLRQ JUDIWHG RQ WKH +DUURG'RPDU JURZWK PRGHO WKDW KDV
UHFHLYHG WKH ZLGHVW FRQVHQVXV LQ GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH HVSH
FLDOO\ DQG QRW VXUSULVLQJO\ ZLWK DQ DOPRVW JHQHUDO XVH RI WKH &REE
'RXJODV SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ LV GHYRWHG WR D VHYHUH FULWLTXH RI WKLV
WKHRUHWLFDO GHYHORSPHQW
 &ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ

,W LV RQO\ DSSURSULDWH WR VWUHVV WKDW WKH SDUWLFXODU SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ


RI WKH &REE'RXJODV W\SH ZDV SURSRVHG LQ WKH V DQG V LQ
RUGHU WR EH DEOH WR FDUU\ RXW HPSLULFDO HODERUDWLRQV E\ WDNLQJ
DGYDQWDJH RI WKH GDWD WKHQ EHFRPLQJ DYDLODEOH RQ SURGXFWLRQ RQ
ODERXU RQ FDSLWDO ,W LV RI FRXUVH TXLWH XQGHUVWDQGDEOH WKDW ZKHQ
XVLQJ DJJUHJDWH GDWD RQH PD\ UHVRUW WR VRPH VRUW RI VLPSOLILFDWLRQ
DQG DSSUR[LPDWLRQ %XW ZLWKLQ ZKLFK PDUJLQV LV WKLV MXVWLILDEOH"
7KRVH ZKR PDGH WKH RULJLQDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQV SUHVHQWHG WKHP ZLWK
JUHDW VDWLVIDFWLRQ &REE DQG 'RXJODV  'RXJODV   %XW WKH
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKHLU ILQGLQJV FRQWLQXHG WR IDFH KDLOV RI FULWLFLVPV ,Q
D UHFHQW DUWLFOH 6\ORV /DELQL  KDV SUHVHQWHG D VXUYH\ RI WKH

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ



HPSLULFDO DSSOLFDWLRQV WKDW KDYH EHHQ FDUULHG RXW ZLWK XVH RI WKH
&REE'RXJODV SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ VLQFH WKH V XS WR WKH SUHVHQW
GD\ +H KDV EHHQ FRPSHOOHG WR GUDZ GHFLGHGO\ QHJDWLYH FRQFOXVLRQV
6XIILFH LW WR PHQWLRQ WKDW LQ WKH RYHUZKHOPLQJ PDMRULW\ RI
FDVHV WKH VXP RI WKH WZR SDUDPHWHUV D DQG E  ZKLFK VKRXOG UHSUH
VHQW WKH GLVWULEXWLYH VKDUHV FRPH RXW WR EH GHFLGHGO\ IDU IURP XQLW\
LQ VRPH FDVHV WKH SDUDPHWHUV HYHQ WXUQ RXW WR EH QHJDWLYH DQ REYL
RXV FRQWUDGLFWLRQ $QG \HW WR ULG WKHPVHOYHV RI WKLV FRQWUDGLFWLRQ
ZKDW WKH UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH GRQH KDV VLPSO\ EHHQ WR LQWURGXFH D IXUWKHU
DVVXPSWLRQ ZKLFK ZRXOG HOLPLQDWH WKH FRQWUDGLFWLRQ 7KH\ VLPSO\
LQWURGXFHG WKH FRQVWUDLQW WKDW WKH VXP D  E EH HTXDO WR XQLW\ DQG
WKHQ SURFHHGHG WR HPSLULFDO HVWLPDWHV DIWHU KDYLQJ LPSRVHG VXFK D
FRQVWUDLQW WKHUHE\ HQWLUHO\ IRUHJRLQJ DQ\ H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH GLV
WULEXWLYH VKDUHV <HW VLQFH E\ VR GRLQJ HTXDWLRQ  FRPHV WR FRLQFLGH
H[ K\SRWKHVL ZLWK DFFRXQWLQJ UHODWLRQ  LW QR ORQJHU LV DQ LQGHSHQGHQW
HTXDWLRQ GHULYLQJ IURP D SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ 2QH PXVW DW OHDVW DG
PLW WKDW LWV SDUDPHWHUV PXVW EH OHIW RSHQ WR RWKHU DOWHUQDWLYH LQWHU
SUHWDWLRQV FRQVLGHU IRU H[DPSOH WKH PXFK PRUH SODXVLEOH LQWHUSUHWD
WLRQ SURSRVHG E\ 6\ORV /DELQL  
,QGHHG LI WKHVH DUH WKH UHVXOWV RQH FDQQRW DW OHDVW UHSUHVV WKH
VXVSLFLRQ WKDW VRPHWKLQJ GHHSHU LV QRW SURSHUO\ IXQFWLRQLQJ LQ WKH
QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
(YHU VLQFH WKH RULJLQDO IRUPXODWLRQ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI
LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WKH PDMRU FULWLFLVPV KDYH EHHQ GLUHFWHG WRZDUG
WKH WUHDWPHQW RI FDSLWDO $ QRWDEOH VXUYH\ RI WKH ZD\ LQ ZKLFK FDSLWDO
KDV EHHQ WUHDWHG LQ WKH WKHRULHV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ KDV EHHQ SUH
VHQWHG E\ *DUHJQDQL  DQG   +H KDV FDUULHG RXW D SXQFWLOLRXV
KLVWRULFDO FULWLTXH UHDFKLQJ FRQFOXVLRQV WKDW DUH HQWLUHO\ QHJDWLYH IRU
WKH QHRFODVVLFDO GLVWULEXWLRQ WKHRULHV 1RW DOO KLV FULWLFLVPV PD\ EH
HTXDOO\ FRQYLQFLQJ EXW KLV EDVLF DUJXPHQWV DUH KDUG WR FRQIXWH
%DVLFDOO\ WKH PDMRU VKRUWFRPLQJ RI QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ LV WKDW RI
HQIRUFLQJ D SHUIHFW V\PPHWU\ EHWZHHQ WKH WUHDWPHQW RI ODERXU DQG
WKH WUHDWPHQW RI FDSLWDO D IHDWXUH VXJJHVWHG E\ WKH FULWHULRQ RI
PDWKHPDWLFDO HOHJDQFH EXW ZKLFK ILQGV QR VXSSRUW HLWKHU LQ UHDOLW\ RU

6HH WKH H[WUHPHO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ H[HUFLVH FDUULHG RXW E\ $QZDU 6KDLNK  

VKRZLQJ KRZ

DQ\

DUELWUDULO\ FKRVHQ VHW RI GDWD HYHQ GDWD SRLQWV VSHOOLQJ RXW WKH

ZRUG +$0%8* FDQ SHUIHFWO\ EH ILWWHG E\ D &REE 'RXJODV SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ


ZLWK PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLWLHV DOZD\V EHLQJ HTXDO WR WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ IDFWRU SULFHV
ZKHQ HTXDWLRQ  FHDVHV WR EH DQ LQGHSHQGHQW HTXDWLRQ

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



LQ ORJLF ,W LV D IDFW WKDW IRU EDVLFDOO\ FRQFHSWXDO UHDVRQV WKH WZR IDF
WRUV DUH QRW V\PPHWULFDO WR HDFK RWKHU /DERXU FDQ EH H[SUHVVHG LQ
SK\VLFDO WHUPV OHW XV VD\ LQ KRXUV RU GD\V RI ZRUN WR ZKLFK LWV UH
ZDUG WKH XQLW ZDJH UDWH LV UHIHUUHG ZDJH SHU KRXU RU SHU GD\ RU
SHU PRQWK RI ZRUN  &DSLWDO PXVW RI FRXUVH DOVR EH H[SUHVVHG LQ
SK\VLFDO WHUPV OHW XV VD\ QXPEHU RI PDFKLQHV IRU H[DPSOH RU DQ LQ
GH[ RI LWV SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\  ZKHQ LQVHUWHG LQWR DQ\ SURGXFWLRQ IXQF
WLRQ %XW LWV UHZDUG WKH UDWH RI SURILWV  LH ZKDW LV UHOHYDQW IRU WKH
SXUSRVHV RI D WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV QRW FRPPHQVXUDWH WR
LWV SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ EXW UDWKHU WR LWV YDOXH LH WR LWV SK\VLFDO TXDQ
WLW\ PXOWLSOLHG E\ LWV SULFH DQG WKLV SULFH OLNH DOO SULFHV LV LQ WXUQ
GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH UDWH RI SURILWV  ,Q WKH FDVH RI D PRGHO ZLWK D VLQJOH
JRRG DQG RQO\ LQ WKLV FDVH  SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ DQG YDOXH KDSSHQ WR FR
LQFLGH VLQFH WKH SULFH RI WKH SURGXFW DQG WKH SULFH RI FDSLWDO LV WKH
VDPH SULFH H[ K\SRWKHVL ,Q WKLV FDVH WKH DV\PPHWU\ LV QRW YLVLEOH 7KH
QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ LQ WKLV FDVH DQG RQO\ LQ WKLV FDVH
VKRZV QR ORJLFDO LQFRQVLVWHQF\ %XW DV VRRQ DV ZH JR RYHU WR WKH FDVH
RI HYHQ D PHUH WZRJRRG PRGHO HJ RQH FRQVXPSWLRQ JRRG DQG RQH
FDSLWDO JRRG  WKH QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ  LV QR ORQJHU
ORJLFDOO\ FRQVLVWHQW 7KHUH DUH WZR SRVVLELOLWLHV HLWKHU ZH XVH WKH
V\PERO . WR UHSUHVHQW WKH SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ RI FDSLWDO LQ ZKLFK FDVH
WKH SDUWLDO GHULYDWLYH w<w. QR ORQJHU UHSUHVHQWV WKH UDWH RI SURILWV
EXW WKH UHQWDO RI FDSLWDO ZKLFK LQ WXUQ LV WR EH PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH SULFH
RI WKH FDSLWDO JRRG  RU HOVH ZH VWLFN WR WKH XVH RI V\PERO . WR UHSUH
VHQW WKH FXUUHQW YDOXH RI FDSLWDO EXW LQ WKLV FDVH WKH SDUWLDO GHULYDWLYH
RI < ZLWK UHVSHFW WR . HPHUJHV DV EHLQJ WKH VXP RI WZR DGGHQGV RQH
UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ RI FDSLWDO WKH
RWKHU UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKH YDULDWLRQ LQ WKH SULFH RI VXFK D SK\VLFDO TXDQ
WLW\
7KH 6ZHGLVK HFRQRPLVW .QXW :LFNVHOO  EHFDPH DZDUH RI
WKLV FLUFXPVWDQFH TXLWH HDUO\ DQG ZLWK H[HPSODU\ FRKHUHQFH DOZD\V
FKRVH WR LQFOXGH LQ KLV SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV FDSLWDO PHDVXUHG LQ
SK\VLFDO WHUPV ZKLFK ZDV WKHQ PXOWLSOLHG E\ WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ
SULFH EHIRUH EHLQJ XVHG DV WKH DUJXPHQW RI WKH GHULYDWLYH WKDW UHSUH
VHQWV WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO +RZHYHU :LFNVHOO DOVR LPPHGL
DWHO\ UHDOLVHG WKDW E\ VR GRLQJ WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO FDQ
QHYHU EH HTXDO H[FHSW E\ VRPH H[WUDRUGLQDU\ FRLQFLGHQFH WR WKH UDWH
RI SURILWV ZKLFK KH WRRN WR FRLQFLGH ZLWK WKH UDWH RI LQWHUHVW  ,QGHHG
KLV FRQFOXVLRQ ZDV WKDW WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO DOZD\V WXUQV



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

RXW WR EH VPDOOHU WKDQ WKH UDWH RI SURILWV EHFDXVH WKH YDULDWLRQ RI


FDSLWDO OHDGV WR FKDQJHV LQ LWV SULFH LH WR FKDQJHV RI WKH FXUUHQW XQLW
LQ WHUPV RI ZKLFK FDSLWDO LWVHOI LV PHDVXUHG 7KH GLYHUJHQFH RI WKH
PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO IURP WKH UDWH RI SURILWV FDPH WR EH NQRZQ
DV WKH :LFNVHOO HIIHFW
$Q LQWHUHVWLQJ GHYHORSPHQW RI WKLV DUJXPHQW FDPH DERXW ZKHQ
LQ D VXEVHTXHQW GLVFXVVLRQ ZLWK 'U cNHUPDQ :LFNVHOO  GLG
FRQILUP KLV SUHYLRXV ILQGLQJ RI D GLYHUJHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH UDWH RI SURI
LWV DQG WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO EXW DW WKH VDPH WLPH DOVR UHDO
LVHG WR KLV VXUSULVH WKDW QRW DOZD\V GLG WKH GLYHUJHQFH RFFXU LQ WKH
VDPH GLUHFWLRQ ,W FRXOG LQ FHUWDLQ FDVHV DV KH KDG DOZD\V WKRXJKW
EH QHJDWLYH WKH :LFNVHOO HIIHFW  EXW LW FRXOG DOVR LQ RWKHU FDVHV WXUQ
RXW WR EH SRVLWLYH JHQHUDWLQJ D :LFNVHOO HIIHFW LQ UHYHUVH
7KH FRQVHTXHQFHV RI :LFNVHOOV DQDO\VHV IRU WKH PDUJLQDO WKHRU\
RI FDSLWDO DUH YHU\ VHULRXV %XW LW ZDV E\ WKHQ WRR ODWH IRU WKH 6ZHGLVK
HFRQRPLVW KLPVHOI WR EH DEOH WR JR LQWR WKHP LQ GHWDLO
:H PD\ DVN LI WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFW RI FDSLWDO DQG WKH UDWH RI
SURILWV SURYH QRW WR EH PRQRWRQLFDOO\ UHODWHG WR HDFK RWKHU ZKDW VLJ
QLILFDQW UROH FDQ WKHUH EH IRU WKH YHU\ FRQFHSW RI PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLY
LW\ RI FDSLWDO" ,W LV SUHFLVHO\ WKLV TXHVWLRQ WKDW KDV EHHQ DW WKH EDVLV RI
WKH FRQWURYHUV\ LQ WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO LQ WKH V DQG V D
FRQWURYHUV\ ZKLFK DW WLPHV JUHZ TXLWH KHDWHG
)RU H[SRVLWLRQ FODULW\ ZH PD\ GLVWLQJXLVK WKH GHEDWH LQWR WZR
SKDVHV 7KH ILUVW SKDVH EHJDQ ZLWK D YHKHPHQW DWWDFN ODXQFKHG E\
-RDQ 5RELQVRQ DQG WR VRPH H[WHQW DOVR E\ 1LFKRODV .DOGRU DQG
5LFKDUG .DKQ RQ WKH YHU\ FRQFHSW RI QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQF
WLRQ %\ DQG ODUJH -RDQ 5RELQVRQ  VWDUWHG IURP :LFNVHOOV
ILQGLQJV DQG SURSRVHG WR FRQVLGHU D WHFKQRORJ\ QR ORQJHU FRQVLVWLQJ
RI D FRQWLQXXP RI SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV EXW UDWKHU RI D ILQLWH QXP
EHU RI WHFKQLTXHV WKDW FDQ EH FRPELQHG WZR DW D WLPH LQ D OLQHDU UHOD
WLRQVKLS 6KH FRQFHQWUDWHG KHU FULWLTXH RQ WKH FRQFHSW RI FDSLWDO DV D
IDFWRU RI SURGXFWLRQ :KDW PHDQLQJ FDQ EH DVFULEHG VKH DVNHG WR D
IDFWRU FDSLWDO . ZKLFK LV LQVHUWHG LQWR D QHRFODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQF
WLRQ LI ZKHQ H[SUHVVHG LQ YDOXH WHUPV WKLV PDJQLWXGH LV QR ORQJHU LQ
GHSHQGHQW RI WKH UDWH RI SURILWV DQG WKXV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ"
7KH HQVXLQJ GHEDWH ZD[HG SURIXVH DQG OLYHO\ EHJLQQLQJ ZLWK D
ZHOONQRZQ DUWLFOH E\ 6RORZ   $Q LPSRUWDQW DVSHFW RI WKLV
GLVFXVVLRQ ZDV WR FODULI\ WKH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW KDYH WR EH VDWLVILHG IRU

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV WR EH VXVFHSWLEOH RI EHLQJ DJJUHJDWHG DV D


VLQJOH SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ (PEOHPDWLF LQ WKLV UHVSHFW DUH WKH DUWLFOH E\
6DPXHOVRQ   RQ WKH VXUURJDWH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ DQG WKH
SURSRVDO PDGH E\ &KDPSHUQRZQH  FRQFHUQLQJ WKH FRQVWUXF
WLRQ RI D FKDLQ LQGH[ IRU DJJUHJDWLQJ WKH FDSLWDO JRRGV ZKLFK IROORZ
RQH DQRWKHU LQ D SURFHVV RI YDULDWLRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV DV LQ
FRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV FKDQJLQJ 7KH FRQFOXVLRQV UHDFKHG RQ WKH PDWWHU
VHH DOVR )UDQNOLQ )LVKHU  PD\ EH VXPPHG XS LQ WKH IROORZLQJ
SURSRVLWLRQ WKH FRQGLWLRQV WR EH VDWLVILHG LQ RUGHU WR DJJUHJDWH KHW
HURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV DUH VR H[WUDRUGLQDULO\ UHVWULFWLYH DV WR UXOH
RXW DQ\ UHDVRQDEOH SRVVLELOLW\ RI FRQVWUXFWLQJ DQ DJJUHJDWH SK\VLFDO
PHDVXUH RI FDSLWDO JRRGV
:KLOH DFNQRZOHGJLQJ WKH IRUFHIXOQHVV RI WKLV SURSRVLWLRQ WKH
QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV RIIHUHG D JHQHUDO GHIHQFH RI FDSLWDO DJJUHJD
WLRQ SURFHGXUHV E\ SRLQWLQJ RXW WKDW WKH WRWDO TXDQWLWLHV RI ODERXU DQG
RI QHW QDWLRQDO SURGXFW DUH DOVR REWDLQHG E\ DJJUHJDWLQJ KHWHURJHQH
RXV TXDQWLWLHV :KHQ IRU WKH VDNH RI VLPSOLFLW\ RQH UHVRUWV WR DJJUH
JDWLRQ PXFK WKH VDPH SUREOHPV DULVH IRU ODERXU DQG IRU WKH QHW QD
WLRQDO SURGXFW DV WKH\ DULVH IRU FDSLWDO 2I FRXUVH WKLV LV WUXH %XW D
IXQGDPHQWDO SRLQW KDV EHHQ RYHUORRNHG DQG WKH GLVFXVVLRQ RQ DJJUH
JDWLRQ PD\ KDYH FRQWULEXWHG WR GLYHUWLQJ DWWHQWLRQ IURP WKLV LPSRU
WDQW SRLQW  7KH SUREOHP WKDW DULVHV LQ WKH FDVH RI FDSLWDO KDV QRW VR
PXFK WR GR ZLWK WKH GLIILFXOW\ RI ILQGLQJ SUDFWLFDO PHDQV WR FDUU\ RXW
DJJUHJDWLRQ ZLWK D IDLU GHJUHH RI DSSUR[LPDWLRQ LW LV PRUH IXQGDPHQ
WDOO\ WKH FRQFHSWXDO GLIILFXOW\ RI KDYLQJ WR WUHDW DQ DJJUHJDWH TXDQWLW\
H[SUHVVHG LQ YDOXH WHUPV FDSLWDO LQ WKH VDPH ZD\ DV RWKHU DJJUHJDWH
TXDQWLWLHV ODQG DQG ODERXU ZKLFK DUH LQVWHDG H[SUHVVHG LQ SK\VLFDO
WHUPV 7KH WZR W\SHV RI DJJUHJDWH TXDQWLWLHV GR QRW EHORQJ WR WKH
VDPH ORJLFDO FODVV DQG FDQ WKXV QHLWKHU EH SODFHG RQ WKH VDPH OHYHO
QRU EH LQVHUWHG V\PPHWULFDOO\ LQ WKH VDPH IXQFWLRQ 7KLV LV QR ORQJHU
D PDWWHU RI D PRUH RU OHVV DSSURSULDWH GHJUHH RI DSSUR[LPDWLRQ ,W EH
FRPHV D IXQGDPHQWDO DQG LQGHHG DE\VVDO FRQFHSWXDO GLYHUVLW\ FRQFHUQ
LQJ WKH IDFWRUV ODERXU DQG ODQG RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG WKH IDFWRU
FDSLWDO RQ WKH RWKHU
,W LV SUHFLVHO\ RQ WKLV SUREOHP WKDW D OLWWOH PRUH OLJKW ZDV FDVW
GXULQJ D VHFRQG SKDVH RI WKH GHEDWH ZKLFK ZDV SURPSWHG E\ WKH DS
SHDUDQFH RI D YHU\ VKRUW DQG LQLWLDOO\ WRWDOO\ LJQRUHG FKDSWHU UHOH
JDWHG WR WKH HQG RI 3LHUR 6UDIIDV ERRN  



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

6UDIID SRLQWHG RXW WKDW LQ D PXOWLVHFWRU SURGXFWLRQ VFKHPH WKH


SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV WKDW DUH FKRVHQ DV WKH PRVW SURILWDEOH RQHV DV
YDULDWLRQV WDNH SODFH LQ LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ EHWZHHQ SURILWV DQG
ZDJHV GR QRW IROORZ HDFK RWKHU LQ DQ XQDPELJXRXV DQG XQFKDQJLQJ
RUGHU :KDWHYHU FRQYHQWLRQ PD\ EH DGRSWHG WR PHDVXUH WKH FDSLWDO
WKDW LV XVHG WKH SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV WKDW UHTXLUH D KLJK SURSRUWLRQ
RI FDSLWDO WR ODERXU DW D ORZ UDWH RI SURILWV PD\ ZHOO EH GLVFDUGHG E\
RWKHU PRUH SURILWDEOH WHFKQLTXHV ZKHQ WKH UDWH RI SURILWV LV KLJKHU
%XW WKH IRUPHU SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV PD\ RQFH DJDLQ EHFRPH WKH
PRVW SURILWDEOH WHFKQLTXHV DW HYHQ KLJKHU UDWHV RI SURILW .QRZQ DV
WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ RI WHFKQLTXHV WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ ZHQW YLUWXDOO\
XQQRWLFHG ZKHQ 6UDIIDV ZRUN ZDV SXEOLVKHG EXW ZDV EURXJKW WR WKH
OLPHOLJKW E\ D VHULHV RI FRQWULEXWLRQV IRUPLQJ D 6\PSRVLXP HGLWHG
E\ 6DPXHOVRQ LQ  DQG VWLPXODWHG E\ WKH RSHQLQJ DUWLFOH RI VXFK
6\PSRVLXP ZULWWHQ E\ 3DVLQHWWL  DV D FULWLFLVP RI D SUHYLRXV
DUWLFOH E\ /HYKDUL   7KH 6\PSRVLXP ZDV IROORZHG E\ D FRSLRXV
OLWHUDWXUH ZHOO UHYLHZHG LQ D VXUYH\ E\ +DUFRXUW   
7KH PDLQ WKHRUHWLFDO ILQGLQJ RI WKHVH FRQWULEXWLRQV LV WKDW LQ
JHQHUDO WKHUH LV QR LQYHUVH PRQRWRQLF UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ TXDQWLW\ RI
FDSLWDO ZKDWHYHU WKH PHWKRG FKRVHQ IRU LWV PHDVXUHPHQW ZKHWKHU LQ
SK\VLFDO RU LQ YDOXH WHUPV DQG UDWH RI SURILWV D SKHQRPHQRQ DOVR
NQRZQ DV UHYHUVH FDSLWDOGHHSHQLQJ 7KLV EDVLF SURSRVLWLRQ ZKLFK LV
DSSOLFDEOH ERWK WR WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHP DV D ZKROH DQG WR WKH LQGL
YLGXDO SURGXFWLYH SURFHVVHV VWLOO UHPDLQV YDOLG GHVSLWH WKH DOPLJKW\
HIIRUWV RI KRVWV RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV WR FRQIXWH LW RU DWWHQXDWH
LW RU WR OLPLW LWV VFRSH
7KH 6\PSRVLXP FRQWULEXWRUV ZHUH ZHOO DZDUH RI WKH WKHRUHWL
FDO LPSOLFDWLRQV RI WKHVH ILQGLQJV ZKLFK DUH GHYDVWDWLQJ IRU WKH QHR
FODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ VLQFH WKH\ GHSULYH RI DQ\ JHQ
HUDO DSSOLFDELOLW\ WKDW UHODWLRQVKLS DVVXPHG OHW LW EH UHPHPEHUHG
WKURXJK H[WHQVLRQ DQG DQDORJ\ UDWKHU WKDQ SURPSWHG E\ REVHUYDWLRQ
EHWZHHQ WKH SULFH RI WKH IDFWRU FDSLWDO DQG WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ
TXDQWLW\ ZKDWHYHU ZD\ LV FKRVHQ WR PHDVXUH LW 7KLV LV D SURSHUW\
WKDW KDG EHHQ WDNHQ VLQFH WKH EHJLQQLQJ DV JHQHUDO DQG FKDUDFWHULVWLF
RI DOO UHODWLRQV RI WUDGLWLRQDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\
3DXO 6DPXHOVRQ WKXV VXPPHG XS WKH FRQFOXVLRQ WR WKH
6\PSRVLXP

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



>@ WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI VZLWFKLQJ >@ RI WHFKQLTXHV >@ VKRZV


WKDW WKH VLPSOH WDOH WROG E\ -HYRQV %|KP%DZHUN :LFNVHOO DQG
RWKHU QHRFODVVLFDO ZULWHUV DOOHJLQJ WKDW DV WKH UDWH RI LQWHUHVW IDOOV
LQ FRQVHTXHQFH RI DEVWHQWLRQ IURP SUHVHQW FRQVXPSWLRQ LQ IDYRU
RI IXWXUH WHFKQRORJ\ PXVW EHFRPH LQ VRPH VHQVH PRUH URXQG
DERXW PRUH PHFKDQL]HG DQG PRUH SURGXFWLYH FDQQRW EH XQL
YHUVDOO\ YDOLG >@
>@ 7KHUH RIWHQ WXUQV RXW WR EH QR XQDPELJXRXV ZD\ RI FKDU
DFWHUL]LQJ GLIIHUHQW SURFHVVHV DV PRUH FDSLWDO LQWHQVLYH >@
>@ ,I DOO WKLV FDXVHV KHDGDFKHV IRU WKRVH QRVWDOJLF IRU WKH ROG
WLPH SDUDEOHV RI QHRFODVVLFDO ZULWLQJ ZH PXVW UHPLQG RXUVHOYHV
WKDW VFKRODUV DUH QRW ERUQ WR OLYH DQ HDV\ H[LVWHQFH :H PXVW UH
VSHFW DQG DSSUDLVH WKH IDFW RI OLIH 6DPXHOVRQ E SS 
 

&KDUOHV )HUJXVRQ   LQ D ERRN GHDOLQJ VSHFLILFDOO\ ZLWK WKH


QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ FRQFOXGHG
E\ UHLWHUDWLQJ 6DPXHOVRQV SURSRVLWLRQV
>@ WKH &DPEULGJH &ULWLFLVP GHILQLWHO\ VKRZV WKDW WKHUH PD\ EH
VWUXFWXUHV RI SURGXFWLRQ LQ ZKLFK WKH &ODUN SDUDEOH PD\ QRW KROG
>@ 7KH FUX[ RI WKH PDWWHU LV WKDW HFRQRPLVWV PD\ EH XQDEOH WR
PDNH DQ\ VWDWHPHQWV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHODWLRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ WR
FRPSHWLWLYH LQSXW DQG RXWSXW PDUNHWV
, EHOLHYH WKH\ FDQ EXW WKDW LV D VWDWHPHQW RI IDLWK >@
)HUJXVRQ  S  

$ VWDWHPHQW RI IDLWK +RZ FRXOG LW EH DFFHSWHG" &OHDUO\ WKH


PDWWHU FRXOG QRW EH OHIW LQ VXFK WHUPV RU DW OHDVW LW FRXOG QRW EH OHIW
LQ VXFK WHUPV LQ DQ H[SOLFLW ZD\
,W LV ZRUWK UHFDOOLQJ WKDW D VFLHQFH PHWKRGRORJLVW 7KRPDV .XKQ
 KDV WDXJKW XV WKDW LW LV QR UDUH HYHQW LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI VFLHQFH
WKDW QRZ DQG WKHQ ILQGLQJV DUH REWDLQHG WKDW FODVK ZLWK WKH DFFHSWHG
WKHRU\ RU SUHGRPLQDQW SDUDGLJP 7KH PRVW FRPPRQ UHVSRQVH LQ
VXFK FDVHV XQWLO D QHZ PRUH VDWLVIDFWRU\ SDUDGLJP HPHUJHV LV VLP
SO\ WR GLVUHJDUG WKH DQRPDORXV ILQGLQJV
,Q WKH VXEVHTXHQW \HDUV WKLV LV SUHFLVHO\ ZKDW KDV KDSSHQHG



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

 5HSUHVVLRQ RI TGUYKVEJKPI LQ GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH

$IWHU WKH VWLUULQJ FRQWHQWLRXV GHEDWH RYHU WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO


JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI UHVZLWFKLQJ LQ WKH
V RQH KDV VXUSULVLQJO\ ZLWQHVVHG LQ WKH HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH
ZLWKLQ WKH FRXUVH RI RQO\ D IHZ \HDUV WKH VXGGHQ RQH PLJKW HYHQ VD\
DEUXSW GLVDSSHDUDQFH RI DOO GLVFXVVLRQV RQ VXFK WKHPHV
7KH SKDVHV WKURXJK ZKLFK WKLV VWDWH RI DIIDLUV KDV FRPH DERXW
DUH WKHPVHOYHV DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ SKHQRPHQRQ IURP WKH YLHZSRLQW RI WKH
KLVWRU\ RI HFRQRPLF VFLHQFH DQG GHVHUYH FDUHIXO FRQVLGHUDWLRQ HYHQ
DW WKH FRVW RI D EULHI GLJUHVVLRQ
7KH ILUVW UHDFWLRQ WR WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI UHVZLWFKLQJ ZDV RQH RI XQ
HDV\ IDVWLGLRXVQHVV 7KH LQWXLWLYH FRQMHFWXUH SUHYDLOHG WKDW LW VKRXOG
EH DQ RGG ZHLUG EL]DUUH RU UDUH FDVH RI QR HPSLULFDO UHOHYDQFH ZKDW
VRHYHU 7KH HFRQRPLVWV ZKR QHYHUWKHOHVV RULJLQDOO\ KDG WR DGPLW LW
GLG VR ZLWK LQVWLQFWLYH UHOXFWDQFH DV LW FODVKHG ZLWK WKHLU LQKHULWHG
ZD\ RI WKLQNLQJ 7KH\ XVHG D YDULHW\ RI WHUPV IRU LW UDQJLQJ IURP
SDUDGR[LFDO DQG SHUYHUVH WR H[FHSWLRQDO LQFRQYHQLHQW DQG
DQRPDORXV D FDVH WKDW >@ LQWXLWLRQ VXJJHVWV LV XQUHDOLVWLF DQG VR
RQ VHH WKH QXPHURXV TXRWDWLRQV LQ 3DVLQHWWL  S  DQG DOVR
3DVLQHWWL   &KDUOHV )HUJXVRQ DV UHSRUWHG DERYH ZDV PRUH H[
SOLFLW DQG FDQGLG +H UHDVVHUWHG KLV LQVWLQFWLYH FRQILGHQFH LQ WKH QHR
FODVVLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ EXW DGPLWWHG WKDW KLV WUXVW ZDV D
VWDWHPHQW RI IDLWK
7KHUH IROORZHG D VHFRQG SKDVH LQ ZKLFK WKHUH ZDV D SDLQVWDNLQJ
VHDUFK IRU VSHFLI\LQJ WKH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW FRXOG EH VXIILFLHQW WR H[FOXGH
WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ SKHQRPHQRQ RQ WKH VXEMHFW VHH IRU H[DPSOH )UDQN
OLQ )LVKHU  6DWR  %XUPHLVWHU   7KHUH ZDV PRUHRYHU D
VXEVWDQWLDO HIIRUW WR UHLQWHUSUHW WKH UDWH RI LQWHUHVW DV DW OHDVW H[SUHVV
LQJ WKH UDWH RI UHWXUQ IRU VRFLHW\ DV D ZKROH ZKHQ WKH HFRQRPLF V\V
WHP ZDV FKDQJLQJ WKH SURSRUWLRQV EHWZHHQ WZR HTXDOO\ SURILWDEOH
WHFKQLTXHV 6RORZ  DQG   +RZHYHU DOO WKHVH HIIRUWV GLG QRW
OHDG YHU\ IDU 2Q WKH RQH KDQG WKH FRQGLWLRQV WKDW ZRXOG EH QHHGHG
LQ RUGHU WR DYRLG WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ RI WHFKQLTXHV SURYHG WR EH VR H[
WUHPHO\ UHVWULFWLYH DV WR OHDYH QR UHDVRQDEOH SRVVLELOLW\ RI UHO\LQJ RQ
WKHP 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG LQ D FULWLTXH RI 6RORZV DWWHPSW WR UHYLYH
,UYLQJ )LVKHUV FRQFHSW RI WKH UDWH RI UHWXUQ 3DVLQHWWL LQYHVWLJDWHG D
JHQHUDO GLVFRQWLQXLW\ SURSHUW\ RI WKH FRQFHSWLRQ RI VSHFWUXP RI WHFK

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



QLTXHV VKRZLQJ WKDW WKH YLFLQLW\ HYHQ DQ LQILQLWHVLPDO YLFLQLW\ RI


DQ\ WZR WHFKQLTXHV RQ WKH VFDOH RI YDULDWLRQ RI WKH UDWH RI SURILWV GRHV
QRW HQWDLO DW DOO DQ\ YLFLQLW\ RI VXFK WHFKQLTXHV DV PDUJLQDO SURGXF
WLYLW\ WKHRU\ ZRXOG UHTXLUH RQ WKH VFDOH RI YDULDWLRQ RI WKHLU GHJUHH
RI FDSLWDOLQWHQVLW\ FDSLWDORXWSXW RU FDSLWDOODERXU UDWLRV  &DSLWDO
LQWHQVLW\ PLJKW LQ IDFW UHPDLQ TXLWH IDU DSDUW IRU WKH WZR WHFKQLTXHV
LQYROYHG 3DVLQHWWL   7KHVH GLVFRQWLQXLW\ SURSHUWLHV KDYH EHHQ
DQDO\VHG LQ GHWDLO E\ - %DUNOH\ 5RVVHU -U  FK  'LVFRQWLQXLW\
DQG FDSLWDO WKHRU\  7KXV QHZ DQDO\WLFDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ FRXOG EULQJ
QR KHOS IRU WKH WUDGLWLRQDO YLHZV TXLWH WKH FRQWUDU\
<HW WKHUH ILQDOO\ FDPH D WKLUG YHU\ FXULRXV SKDVH ZKLFK VKRXOG
DSSHDU UDWKHU VWUDQJH JLYHQ LWV ZHDN WKHRUHWLFDO DQG HPSLULFDO XQGHU
SLQQLQJ EXW ZKLFK ZDV JUHHWHG ZLWK UHOLHI E\ WKH WKHRULVWV RI PDLQ
VWUHDP HFRQRPLFV 7KH HVVHQFH RI WKLV WKLUG SKDVH FDQ EH VXPPHG XS
ZLWK WKH IROORZLQJ SURSRVLWLRQ WKH FULWLFLVPV RI WKH WUDGLWLRQDO WKH
RU\ RI FDSLWDO UDLVHG E\ WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI UHVZLWFKLQJ DQG FRQVH
TXHQW UHYHUVH FDSLWDOGHHSHQLQJ DUH YDOLG EXW RQO\ ZLWK UHIHUHQFH WR
WKH QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHO FRQFHLYHG LQ DJJUHJDWH WHUPV 7KH\ GR QRW DS
SO\ WR WKH QHRFODVVLFDO FDVH RI WKH JHQHUDO HFRQRPLF HTXLOLEULXP
PRGHO FRQFHLYHG LQ GLVDJJUHJDWHG WHUPV DQG EDVHG RQ WKH EHKDYLRXU
RI LQGLYLGXDOV PD[LPLVLQJ LQWHUWHPSRUDO IXQFWLRQV RI SURILWV DQG RI
XWLOLW\
7KLV SURSRVLWLRQ DFWXDOO\ KDV QR REMHFWLYH IRXQGDWLRQ SKHQRP
HQD RI QRQFRQYH[LW\ UHVZLWFKLQJ RI WHFKQLTXHV DQG EDGO\EHKDYHG
SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV WR WDNH DQ H[SUHVVLRQ WKDW KDV EHHQ ZLGHO\ XVHG
EHKDYLQJ EDGO\ PHDQLQJ VLPSO\ WKDW WKH\ EHKDYH LQ D ZD\ DV QRW WR
REH\ WKH DVVXPSWLRQV RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV  DUH QRW DV KDV EHHQ
DPSO\ GHPRQVWUDWHG D FRQVHTXHQFH RU D FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI DQ\ SDU
WLFXODU SURFHVV RI DJJUHJDWLRQ 7KH\ PD\ RFFXU DW DQ\ WLPH DQG LQ
DQ\ FRQWH[W DJJUHJDWHG RU GLVDJJUHJDWHG 9DULRXV DXWKRUV KDYH FRQ
WLQXHG WR GHPRQVWUDWH WKLV SRLQW HJ .XU]  6FKHIROG  *D
UHJQDQL  DQG RWKHUV  %XW VR WKLQJV JR 7KH FRQWUDU\ FRQYLFWLRQ
KDG WDNHQ URRW DQG KDV FRQWLQXHG WR VSUHDG $ERYH DOO WKH SURSRVL
WLRQ FLWHG DERYH KDV EHHQ WUXQGOHG RXW DJDLQ DQG DJDLQ ZLWK QR SURRI
EXW VLPSO\ UHIHUULQJ EDFN WR RWKHU VRXUFHV ZKLFK LQ WXUQ DUH HLWKHU
LQVXIILFLHQW RU LQFRQVLVWHQW
7KH SULQFLSDO RQH RI WKHVH VRXUFHV LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\ DQ LQFUHGL
EO\ SROHPLFDO DQG GRJPDWLF SDSHU E\ )UDQN +DKQ   H[SOLFLWO\
LQWHQGHG WR KHDS GLVFUHGLW RQ WKRVH HFRQRPLVWV ZKRP KH FDOOV WKH



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

1HR5LFDUGLDQV :LWK XQGHQLDEOH UKHWRULFDO DQG GLDOHFWLFDO VNLOO


+DKQ VKLIWHG WKH EDVHV RI WKH ZKROH GHEDWH +H DGPLWV ZLWKRXW PLQF
LQJ ZRUGV WKDW WKH HQWLUH YHUVLRQ RI QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO DQG
LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ EDVHG RQ DJJUHJDWH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV EDVL
FDOO\ WKH ZKROH QHRFODVVLFDO VWUHDP RI WKRXJKW GHVFHQGLQJ IURP
%|KP%DZHUN :LFNVHOO DQG -RKQ %DWHV &ODUN KDV WR EH VFUDSSHG DV
LQFRQVLVWHQW DQG LQFRUUHFW +H WKHQ JRHV RQ WR DUJXH WKDW WKH FRUUHFW
DQG UHOHYDQW YHUVLRQ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ LV QRW WKDW RI %|KP
%DZHUN :LFNVHOO DQG &ODUN DQG QRW HYHQ WKDW RI 0DUVKDOO EXW UDWKHU
WKH WKHRU\ WKDW VWHPV IURP WKH :DOUDVLDQ VFKHPH RI JHQHUDO HFRQRPLF
HTXLOLEULXP D VFKHPH ZKLFK LQ LWV PRGHUQ YHUVLRQ LV UHSUHVHQWHG E\
WKH $UURZ'HEUHX IRUPXODWLRQ $UURZ DQG 'HEUHX  'HEUHX
 $UURZ DQG +DKQ   ,Q WKLV YHUVLRQ WKH VFKHPH DSSHDUV DV D
YHU\ JHQHUDO RQH $OWKRXJK LQ LWV HVVHQWLDO WHUPV WKH VFKHPH LV D SXUH
H[FKDQJH PRGHO LH D VFKHPH RI JLYHQ UHVRXUFHV ZKLFK WKH DJHQWV
H[FKDQJH DPRQJ WKHPVHOYHV RQ WKH EDVLV RI WKH SRVWXODWH RI PD[LPLVD
WLRQ RI XWLOLW\  LW FDQ DOVR EH UHLQWHUSUHWHG LQ LQWHUWHPSRUDO WHUPV E\
DVVRFLDWLQJ ZLWK HDFK UHVRXUFH D TXDQWLW\ LQGH[ DQG D WLPH LQGH[ ,Q
WKLV YHUVLRQ WKH SKHQRPHQRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ EHFRPHV D SKHQRPHQRQ
RI LQWHUWHPSRUDO H[FKDQJH 7KXV D IUDPHZRUN FDQ EH WUDFHG RXW FRQ
WDLQLQJ D ZKROH UDQJH RI KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV $W DQ\ JLYHQ
PRPHQW RI WLPH WKH SRVWXODWHV RI PD[LPLVDWLRQ RI XWLOLW\ DQG RI
SURILW E\ WKH DJHQWV FRQVXPHUV DQG HQWUHSUHQHXUV OHDG WKH V\VWHP
WR SRVLWLRQV RI WHPSRUDU\ HTXLOLEULXP JHQHUDWLQJ DQ RYHUDOO V\VWHP
RI SULFHV IRU DOO UHVRXUFHV SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH
$FFRUGLQJ WR +DKQ WKLV IUDPHZRUN DOVR LQFOXGHV 6UDIIDV PRGHO
DV D YHU\ VSHFLDO FDVH QDPHO\ DV WKH FDVH ZKHUH WKH RULJLQDO KHWHURJH
QHRXV JRRGV LQ WKH JLYHQ LQLWLDO VHW DUH H[DFWO\ LQ WKRVH SURSRUWLRQV
WKDW JHQHUDWH D XQLIRUP UDWH RI SURILWV %XW LQ JHQHUDO WKH HTXLOLE
ULXP SULFHV JHQHUDWHG E\ WKH V\VWHP ZLOO LPSO\ UDWHV RI LQWHUHVW DQG
RI SURILW WDNHQ WR FRLQFLGH ZLWK WKH UDWHV RI LQWHUHVW GLIIHULQJ IURP
DQ\ RQH KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRG WR DQRWKHU 7KLV GRHV QRW PDW
WHU LQ WKH :DOUDVLDQ PRGHO j OD $UURZ'HEUHX JLYHQ WKDW WKLV PRGHO
LV D SULFH GHWHUPLQLQJ PRGHO D SRLQW ZKLFK ZLOO EH WDNHQ XS DJDLQ LQ
WKH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ  ,QGHHG WKH QRQXQLIRUPLW\ RI LQWHUHVW UDWHV LV
SURXGO\ SRLQWHG RXW DV D VLJQ RI WKH JHQHUDOLW\ RI WKH PRGHO +DKQ
DGPLWV WKDW WKH IUDPHZRUN PLJKW VKRZ FDVHV DQG SUREOHPV RI ODFN RI
XQLTXHQHVV DQGRU ODFN RI VWDELOLW\ RI WKH VROXWLRQV +RZHYHU +DKQ

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



FODLPV WKDW WKH VFKHPH VKRXOG EH LPPXQH WR WKH FULWLFLVPV SURPSWHG


E\ WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ SKHQRPHQRQ
%XW KRZ" 7KH SRLQW LV SUHFLVHO\ KHUH $FFRUGLQJ WR +DKQ LQ D
V\VWHP ZLWK PDQLIROG SURGXFWLRQ WHFKQLTXHV HTXDOLW\ ZRXOG VWLOO
KROG EHWZHHQ WKH UHWXUQ RQ HDFK FDSLWDO JRRG DQG WKH GHULYDWLYH RI LWV
SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK UHVSHFW WR LWV LQSXW QDPHO\ WKH PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYL
WLHV LQ SK\VLFDO WHUPV  DOWKRXJK QR FDXVDO UHODWLRQ FRXOG HYHU EH DV
VHUWHG VLQFH DOO WKH VROXWLRQV HPHUJH IURP D V\VWHP RI VLPXOWDQHRXV
HTXDWLRQV +DKQ DGPLWV WKDW WKHUH PLJKW RI FRXUVH EH VRPH QRQ
FRQYH[LWLHV DQG EDGO\EHKDYHG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV LQ RWKHU
ZRUGV WKDW FDVHV RI UHVZLWFKLQJ PLJKW RFFXU 6R +DKQ DGPLWV FDVHV RI
UHVZLWFKLQJ DIWHU DOO %XW KHUH LV WKH UXVH ZKLOH DGPLWWLQJ VXFK FDVHV
+DKQ UHOHJDWHV WKHP WR WKH FDWHJRU\ RI GLIILFXOWLHV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH
]RQHV RI LQVWDELOLW\ 1RZ ]RQHV RI LQVWDELOLW\ RI WKH V\VWHP FDQ DO
ZD\V RFFXU LQ PRGHOV ZLWK KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV HYHQ LQ WKH
FDVH RI SHUIHFWO\ FRQYH[ DQG ZHOOEHKDYHG SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV ,Q
GHHG +DKQ KLPVHOI KDG GHPRQVWUDWHG SUHFLVHO\ WKLV LQ DQ HDUOLHU DUWL
FOH RI KLV  DQ DUWLFOH LW LV WR EH QRWHG ZULWWHQ DV D FULWLTXH RI
GRPLQDQW WKHRU\ +HUH LV WKHUHIRUH KRZ WKH FRQIXVLRQ KDV EHHQ JHQ
HUDWHG D FRQIXVLRQ EHWZHHQ WZR GLIIHUHQW SKHQRPHQD QDPHO\ D LQ
VWDELOLWLHV WKDW FDQ LQ JHQHUDO DULVH LQ DOO QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHOV ZLWK KHW
HURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV DQG E WKH SDUWLFXODU SKHQRPHQRQ RI UH
VZLWFKLQJ ZKLFK E\ EHLQJ UHFODVVLILHG DV JHQHUDWLQJ LQVWDELOLW\ D
FKDUDFWHULVWLF ZKLFK LV QRW LQFRUUHFW VLQFH DPRQJ RWKHU WKLQJV UH
VZLWFKLQJ DOVR JHQHUDWHV LQVWDELOLW\ LQ WKH FDSLWDO JRRGV PDUNHW LV
UHVWULFWLYHO\ DVVRFLDWHG DQG FRQIXVHG ZLWK WKH FDVH SUHYLRXVO\ FRQ
VLGHUHG E\ +DKQ
7KH SDUDGR[LFDO RXWFRPH KDV EHHQ WKDW LQVWHDG RI WDNLQJ XS
+DKQV ILUVW ILQGLQJ   ZKLFK LV FULWLFDO DQG QHJDWLYH ZLWK UHIHU
HQFH WR DOO WKH PXOWLVHFWRU PRGHOV RI QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ PDLQVWUHDP
OLWHUDWXUH KDV XVHG +DKQV VHFRQG DUWLFOH  WR DVVHUW WKDW WKH GLIIL
FXOWLHV FRQQHFWHG ZLWK LQVWDELOLW\ ZHUH DOUHDG\ ZHOONQRZQ
&RQFOXVLRQ UHVZLWFKLQJ KDG QRWKLQJ QHZ WR WHOO XV $V LI WKH
GLIILFXOWLHV ZKHQ WKH\ DUH DOUHDG\ NQRZQ FRXOG E\ WKLV YHU\ IDFW DF
TXLUH D MXVWLILFDWLRQ IRU EHLQJ LJQRUHG QR PDWWHU ZKHWKHU WKH\ FURS
XS LQ DQRWKHU FRQWH[W ZKHUH WKH\ DUH UHLWHUDWHG DQG H[WHQGHG 6XU
SULVLQJO\ HQRXJK KRZHYHU WKLV LV SUHFLVHO\ ZKDW KDV KDSSHQHG
+DKQ KDV FHUWDLQO\ EHHQ YHU\ FDUHIXO QRW WR VWUHVV KLV SUHYLRXV
ILQGLQJV VWULFWO\ ORJLFDO DQG QHJDWLYH ,QVWHDG KH KDV DGRSWHG WKH ID



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

PLOLDU H[SHGLHQW RI VD\LQJ WKDW RI FRXUVH WKHUH DUH GLIILFXOWLHV RI


FRXUVH WKHVH GLIILFXOWLHV FDOO IRU IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK KRSHIXOO\ IXUWKHU UH
VHDUFK ZLOO VHWWOH WKHP LQ WKH IXWXUH
$QG KHUH ZH ILQDOO\ FRPH WR WKH QRQ VHTXLWXU RI WKH FRQFOXVLRQ
WKH 1HR5LFDUGLDQV FRXOG VDIHO\ EH LJQRUHG
0DLQVWUHDP HFRQRPLVWV FRXOG QRW KDYH DVNHG IRU EHWWHU 7KH HI
IHFW KDV EHHQ WR JLYH UHVZLWFKLQJ WKH DLU RI DQ REVHVVLRQ YH[LQJ RWKHUV
DQG WR LQGXFH GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF WKHRULVWV QRW WR WDON RI LW DQ\
PRUH 7KH GHEDWH VRRQ IODJJHG LQ WKH PDMRU HFRQRPLFV MRXUQDO LW KDV
EHHQ IRUJRWWHQ
%XW VRPHWKLQJ HYHQ PRUH LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG LQWULJXLQJ KDV KDS
SHQHG $IWHU RQO\ D IHZ \HDUV HYHQ WKH DGPLVVLRQV LQLWLDOO\ PDGH QR
ORQJHU IRXQG DQ\ PHQWLRQ $JJUHJDWH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV KDYH PDGH
WKHLU XQWURXEOHG UHDSSHDUDQFH LQ WKH PDFURHFRQRPLF WH[WERRNV
ZLWKRXW WKH VOLJKWHVW KLQW DV WR WKHLU HDUOLHU UHFRJQLVHG ORJLFDO LQFRQ
VLVWHQFLHV ,W KDV WDNHQ RQO\ D IHZ \HDUV IRU WKHP WR UHDSSHDU LQ SDSHUV
SXEOLVKHG LQ WKH PDMRU MRXUQDOV RI GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ ZKLFK
DW WKH VDPH WLPH KDYH EHJXQ V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ WR UHMHFW DOO DUWLFOHV GHDOLQJ
ZLWK UHVZLWFKLQJ DV XQSXEOLVKDEOH 7KH VDPH DXWKRUV ZKR KDG IRU
WZR GHFDGHV EHHQ DVVHUWLQJ WKH QHHG WR VFUDS WKH DJJUHJDWH QHRFODVVLFDO
SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV DUH QRZ XVLQJ WKHP TXLWH QRUPDOO\ 7KH W\SLFDO
HFRQRPLFV VWXGHQW HQWHULQJ XQLYHUVLW\ IURP WKH V RQZDUGV KDV
KHDUG QRWKLQJ RI WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ GLIILFXOWLHV LQYROYHG LQ WKH QHRFODVVL
FDO WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO DQG LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
,W LV DV LI WKH GHEDWH RQ WKH FKRLFH RI WHFKQLTXHV KDG QHYHU WDNHQ
SODFH $PQHVLD RQ VXFK D YDVW VFDOH FDQ RQO\ EH H[SODLQHG E\ PRUH
DSSURSULDWH WHUPV VXFK DV VXSSUHVVLRQ RU UHSUHVVLRQ RU UHPRYDO
7KLV LV SHUKDSV RQH RI WKH PRVW LQWHUHVWLQJ H[DPSOHV RI WKDW SURFHVV
GHVFULEHG E\ .XKQ   WKURXJK ZKLFK GRPLQDQW QRUPDO VFLHQFH
VXSSUHVVHV DQG WKXV LJQRUHV WKH FDVHV RI FRQWUDGLFWLRQ DQG DQRPDO\ LW
EHDUV ZLWKLQ
 &RQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ

7KH UHPRYDO RI WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ SKHQRPHQRQ IURP WKH GHEDWHV RQ


HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ MRLQWO\ ZLWK WKH GLVPLVVDO RI DOO HPSKDVLV DVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH WKH SURPRWLRQ RI WKH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



:DOUDVLDQ WKHRUHWLFDO VFKHPH LQ WKH $UURZ'HEUHX YHUVLRQ WR D SODFH


RI SULYLOHJH LQ HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDYH QRW EHHQ QHXWUDO HYHQWV LQ WKH
GHYHORSPHQW RI HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ 7KH\ KDYH SUDFWLFDOO\ FDXVHG WKH
GLVDSSHDUDQFH RI WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
IURP WKH WRSLFV RI GLVFXVVLRQV RI QHRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ DQG
SROLF\
,W LV ZRUWK SRLQWLQJ RXW WKDW WKLV RXWFRPH LV DQRWKHU ORJLFDO
FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH FKRLFH PDGH E\ GRPLQDQW HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ WR
DEDQGRQ WKH IRUPXODWLRQV RI WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV DQG WR JLYH SUH
HPLQHQFH WR WKH :DOUDVLDQ ORJLFDO VFKHPH j OD $UURZ'HEUHX ,W LV
LPSRUWDQW WR UHDOL]H WKDW WKLV ORJLFDO VFKHPH KDV DFTXLUHG HOHJDQFH DQG
ULJRXU E\ SHUIRUPLQJ D QXPEHU RI JHQHUDOLVDWLRQV WKDW DUH SXUHO\
IRUPDO UHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQV 7KLV VFKHPH WUDFHV DOO HFRQRPLF SUREOHPV
EDFN WR RQH VLQJOH EDVLF SUREOHP QDPHO\ WKDW RI LGHQWLI\LQJ D V\VWHP
RI SULFHV ZKLFK LV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK DQ RSWLPDO DOORFDWLRQ RI H[LVWLQJ UH
VRXUFHV UHODWLYH WR  WKH SUHIHUHQFHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV ZKLFK DUH H[
SUHVVHG E\ XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQV KDYLQJ FHUWDLQ VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DV
VXPHG DV JLYHQ   DQ LQLWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ DFFHSWHG DV DUELWUDULO\
JLYHQ RI WKH H[LVWLQJ UHVRXUFHV 7KH VFKHPH PLJKW ZHOO DOVR EH FRQ
VLGHUHG DV DQ HOHJDQW H[WHQVLRQ WR DOO HFRQRPLF SKHQRPHQD RI WKH
RULJLQDO 5LFDUGLDQ WKHRU\ RI UHQW $OO SULFHV DUH LQ IDFW LQWHUSUHWHG DV
UHQWSULFHV
,Q WKLV VFKHPH WKHUH LV QR SUREOHP RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DV
VXFK 7KHUH H[LVWV DQ LQLWLDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV HQWLUHO\ DUEL
WUDU\ DQG DFFHSWHG DV JLYHQ DQG QRW VXEMHFW WR DQ\ H[SODQDWLRQ RU LQ
YHVWLJDWLRQ  DQG ZKDW LV EHLQJ VRXJKW LV DQ RSWLPDO V\VWHP RI SULFHV
RI WKHVH UHVRXUFHV 7KH WKHRU\ LV HVVHQWLDOO\ DQG VROHO\ D WKHRU\ RI
SULFHV )URP DQ DQDO\WLFDO SRLQW RI YLHZ HYHU\ SKHQRPHQRQ PXVW EH
UHVKDSHG DV VRPHWKLQJ WKDW PD\ EH SUHVHQWHG DV D JLYHQ UHVRXUFH LQ
RUGHU WR DUULYH WR WKH GHWHUPLQDWLRQ RI LWV SULFH 7KH VSHFLILF FKDUDF
WHULVWLFV RI SURILWV RI ZDJHV DQG RI UHQWV WKDW KDG VR GHHSO\ PDUNHG
WKH FRQFHUQ RI WKH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV GR QRW H[LVW DV VXFK 7KH
VFKHPH SRVVHVVHV VXFK HOHJDQWO\ JHQHUDOLVLQJ IHDWXUHV WKDW WKDQNV WR
D SURFHVV RI IRUPDO UHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI LWV FRQVWLWXWLYH HOHPHQWV LW
UHGXFHV DOO HFRQRPLF YDULDEOHV HVVHQWLDOO\ WR D V\VWHP RI UHQWSULFHV
$OO WKH UHVW WDNHV XS D GHFLGHGO\ VHFRQGDU\ UROH
7R UHWXUQ WR WKH FRQILJXUDWLRQ PHQWLRQHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHF
WLRQ RI D UHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV DV SDUW
RI D SKHQRPHQRQ RI H[FKDQJH WKURXJK WLPH WKH :DOUDVLDQ VFKHPH



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

GHWHUPLQHV WKH VHULHV RI SULFHV RI WKH FDSLWDO JRRGV H[LVWLQJ DW D FHUWDLQ


SRLQW LQ WLPH WKH VHULHV RI WKHLU UHQWDOV DQG WKH VHULHV RI WKH SULFHV RI
WKH QHZ FDSLWDO JRRGV WKDW DUH SURGXFHG 7KHUH LV QRWKLQJ HOVH RXW
VLGH WKHVH SULFHV 2Q WKH EDVLV RI WKHVH HOHPHQWV LW LV DOVR SRVVLEOH WR
FRPSXWH ORJLFDOO\ DV GHULYHG FRQFHSWV WKH FRUUHVSRQGLQJ KHWHURJH
QHRXV UDWHV RI SURILW %XW WKHVH DUH DV MXVW VDLG GHULYHG FRQFHSWV QRW
FRQVWLWXWLYH FRQFHSWV 7KH VFKHPH GRHV QRW UHTXLUH WKHLU VSHFLILF LQ
WURGXFWLRQ 7KH UDWHV RI SURILW LQ WKLV ZD\ FRPH WR FRQVWLWXWH VHFRQ
GDU\ HOHPHQWV 7KH\ DUH WKH IUXLW RI UHUHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG DV VXFK
WKH\ EHFRPH XOWLPDWHO\ LUUHOHYDQW FRQFHSWV
$ VRPHZKDW VLPLODU OLQH RI UHDVRQLQJ FDQ EH GHYHORSHG IRU
ZDJHV ZKLFK DJDLQ DUH QRW VSHFLILF HOHPHQWV RI WKH PRGHO 7KH\ DUH
WKHPVHOYHV SDUW RI WKH YDULRXV SULFHV 7KH\ EHFRPH WKH SULFHV RI
WKH ODERXUUHVRXUFHV DQG DUH WR EH WUHDWHG LQ D PDQQHU VLPLODU DQG
V\PPHWULFDO WR WKH SULFHV RI DOO WKH RWKHU UHVRXUFHV
7R VXP XS WKH QHRFODVVLFDO VFKHPH LQ WKH $UURZ'HEUHX YHU
VLRQ QHHGV QHLWKHU UDWHV RI SURILW QRU ZDJH UDWHV DV VXFK ,W GHWHUPLQHV
SULFHV RI JLYHQ UHVRXUFHV DQG RQO\ SULFHV 7R ILQG D SODFH LQ WKLV
IUDPHZRUN RI DQDO\VLV DQ\ HFRQRPLF SKHQRPHQRQ PXVW EH UH
PRXOGHG DQG UHLQWHUSUHWHG LQ WKHVH WHUPV
:LWK WKLV FRQFHSWXDO IUDPHZRUN WKH VKLIW RI GRPLQDQW HFR
QRPLF WKHRU\ LQ WKH GLUHFWLRQ RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO YHUVLRQ GHVFHQGLQJ
IURP WKH $UURZ'HEUHX VFKHPH KDV SUDFWLFDOO\ HQWDLOHG D JHQHUDO HV
FDSH RI HFRQRPLF DQDO\VLV IURP WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ DQG H[SODQDWLRQ RI
WKH SUREOHPV RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LQFRPH DQG RI ZHDOWK 
$W WKH GDZQ RI FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ 'DYLG 5LFDUGR LQ
 RSHQHG KLV 3ULQFLSOHV ZLWK WKH IDPRXV SURSRVLWLRQ TXRWHG DW WKH
EHJLQQLQJ WKDW 7R GHWHUPLQH WKH ODZV ZKLFK UHJXODWH WKLV GLVWULEX
WLRQ >RI LQFRPH EHWZHHQ UHQW SURILW DQG ZDJHV@ LV WKH SULQFLSDO SURE
OHP LQ 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ $W WKH HQG RI WKH  FHQWXU\ GRPLQDQW
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDV HQGHG XS ZLWK D WKHRUHWLFDO IUDPHZRUN WKH
QHRFODVVLFDO RQH LQ WKH $UURZ'HEUHX YHUVLRQ  ZKHUH WKH SURFHVV
DQG SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ KDYH EHFRPH VHFRQGDU\ DQG HV
VHQWLDOO\ LUUHOHYDQW
WK

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



 *URZWK ZLWKRXW SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH PRG


HOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV

'HVSLWH WKH SUHHPLQHQFH DQG SULYLOHJH DFFRUGHG E\ GRPLQDQW


HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH WR WKH IXQGDPHQWDOO\ VWDWLF ORJLFDO VFKHPH RI
$UURZ DQG 'HEUHX WKH SUREOHPV RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK DQG WHFKQLFDO
SURJUHVV KDYH QRW WDNHQ ORQJ WR FURS XS DJDLQ $ VWURQJ UHYLYDO RI
HFRQRPLF JURZWK WKHRU\ ZDV EULVNO\ UHNLQGOHG LQ WKH V DV D
UHVXOW RI YDULRXV DWWHPSWV WR JUDSSOH ZLWK D UHDO DQG XQGHQLDEO\
LPSRUWDQW SUREOHP ,QYHVWLJDWLRQ KDV EHHQ WXUQHG WR WKH TXHVWLRQ RI
KRZ WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV PD\ QRW RQO\ EH UHFHLYHG IURP H[WHUQDO
VRXUFHV EXW FRXOG LWVHOI EH SURGXFHG E\ DQ HFRQRPLF DFWLYLW\
H[SOLFLWO\ WDUJHWHG RQ LW 7KH SUREOHP LV LQWHUHVWLQJ EXW DOVR
FRPSOLFDWHG JLYHQ WKH SHFXOLDU SURSHUWLHV RI WHFKQLFDO NQRZKRZ
ZKLFK LV RQO\ DUWLILFLDOO\ DQG WHPSRUDULO\ VXEMHFW WR SURSHUW\ ULJKWV
DQG LQGHHG VKRZV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FORVHU WR WKRVH RI QRQH[FOXVLYH
SXEOLF JRRGV
*URZWK PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV WKXV VDZ WKH
OLJKW RI GD\ ,W ZDV LQHYLWDEOH WKDW WR EH VXFFHVVIXO LQLWLDO UHVHDUFK RQ
HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV VKRXOG EHJLQ LQ WKH XQLYHUVLWLHV RI WKH
8QLWHG 6WDWHV 7HQ \HDUV KDG HODSVHG VLQFH WKH GLIILFXOWLHV RI QHRFODVVL
FDO FDSLWDO WKHRU\ GXH WR UHVZLWFKLQJ KDG EHHQ UHSUHVVHG DQG IRUFHG
RXW RI HFRQRPLF GHEDWH DQG VR ZLWKGUDZQ IURP WKH DWWHQWLRQ RI WKH
QHZ JHQHUDWLRQV RI VFKRODUV :LWK QR UHFROOHFWLRQ RI WKH HDUOLHU GH
EDWH LW ZDV RQO\ QDWXUDO WKDW WKH QHZ IRUPXODWLRQV VKRXOG EH JUDIWHG
RQ WR WKH GRPLQDQW QHRFODVVLFDO VWUHDP RI WKRXJKW
7KH JURZWK PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV WKDW
KDYH HPHUJHG DUH H[WUDRUGLQDULO\ UHILQHG LQ WHUPV RI WKH DQDO\WLFDO
WRROV XVHG DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH QDLYHO\ VLPSOLVWLF LQ WKHLU YLVLRQ RI
WKH ZRUOG %DVLFDOO\ XVLQJ IHZ EXW IDVFLQDWLQJ HOHJDQW DQDO\WLFDO WRROV
WKH\ RIIHU D UHHGLWLRQ DQG D UHVWULFWLYH UHDGDSWDWLRQ RI D PDWKHPDWL
FDO PRGHO RI LQWHUWHPSRUDO PD[LPLVDWLRQ ZKLFK )UDQN 5DPVH\ D
\RXQJ PDWKHPDWLFLDQ LQ .H\QHVV &DPEULGJH JURXS KDG SURSRVHG LQ
 +LV PRGHO ZDV LQ IDFW FRQFHLYHG DV DQ H[HUFLVH LQ EULQJLQJ RXW
WKH DQDO\WLFDO SURSHUWLHV RI D K\SRWKHWLFDO HFRQRPLF V\VWHP ZKHUH DQ
RPQLVFLHQW FHQWUDO SODQQHU HQGRZHG ZLWK HWHUQDO OLIH GHFLGHV RQ WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SURGXFWLRQ DQG FRQVXPSWLRQ RYHU WLPH IRU DOO KLV VXE
MHFWV EHLQJ KLPVHOI DFTXDLQWHG ZLWK DOO WKHLU SUHIHUHQFHV DQG DOO WKH
FRQVWUDLQWV LPSRVHG E\ WKH WHFKQLFDO FRQGLWLRQV



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

%XW WKH DXWKRUV RI WKH JURZWK PRGHO ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO


SURJUHVV KDYH KDG JUHDWHU DPELWLRQV DLPLQJ DW SURYLGLQJ D GHVFULSWLYH
VFKHPH RI WKH UHDO ZRUOG DQG LW LV KHUH WKDW WKH\ KDYH VKRZQ VXUSULV
LQJ QDLYHW\ 1RQH KDYH KDG DQ\ KHVLWDWLRQ LQ XVLQJ QHRFODVVLFDO DJJUH
JDWH FRQWLQXRXV DQG GLIIHUHQWLDEOH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV RI WKH YHU\
W\SH IRU ZKLFK DEDQGRQPHQW KDG EHHQ DGYRFDWHG WZHQW\ \HDUV HDU
OLHU 1RQH IHOW WKH QHHG WR MXVWLI\ RU H[SODLQ WKH XVH RI QRWLRQV OLNH DJ
JUHJDWH SK\VLFDO FDSLWDO ZKLFK PRUHRYHU WKH\ ZRXOG PRVW RI WKH
WLPH LQFOXGH LQ &REE'RXJODV W\SH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV UHVWLQJ RQ
GHFLGHGO\ VKDN\ HPSLULFDO VXSSRUW DV ZDV SRLQWHG RXW LQ 6HFWLRQ  
7KHVH DUH DSSOLHG DV LI WKH\ ZHUH SDUW DQG SDUFHO RI HYHU\GD\ HFR
QRPLF UHDOLW\ QRW WKH VOLJKWHVW GRXEW EHLQJ VKRZQ DERXW WKHP
0RUHRYHU D IXUWKHU DQG HYHQ PRUH SUREOHPDWLF FRQFHSW ZDV EURXJKW
LQ QDPHO\ WKDW RI D SK\VLFDO TXDQWLW\ RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO ZLWKRXW DQ\
DSSDUHQW QHHG WR FRQVLGHU WKH ORJLFDO IRXQGDWLRQV RU WKH FRQGLWLRQV
XQGHU ZKLFK LW FRXOG TXDQWLWDWLYHO\ EH UHSUHVHQWHG
,Q KLV 1HRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ 6RORZ
 SUHVHQWV D YDOXDEOH VXUYH\ RI WKHVH PRGHOV DQG PDVWHUO\ LOOXV
WUDWHV WKHLU PHULWV DQG OLPLWDWLRQV 7KHUH LV WKHUHIRUH QR QHHG WR LQ
GXOJH LQ UHSHWLWLRQV KHUH :KDW RQ WKH RWKHU KDQG PD\ EH ZRUWK
GZHOOLQJ RQ LV WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV ZKLFK WKH QHRFODVVLFDO RULJLQ RI WKHVH
PRGHOV HQWDLO IRU WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKH SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ
DQG WKH FRQVHTXHQFHV IROORZLQJ WKHUHIURP
,I ZH JR EDFN WR WKH +DUURG'RPDU HTXDWLRQ  ZH PLJKW VD\
WKDW LQ WKH PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV WKH PDJQL
WXGH ZKLFK LV WDNHQ DV XQNQRZQ LV J WKH JURZWK UDWH DV LQGHHG LW
KDG EHHQ LQ WKH ILUVWSKDVH RI WKH .DOGRU PRGHO DQG LQ WKH /HZLV
PRGHO VHH 6HFWLRQ   %XW ZKHUHDV LQ .DOGRUV DQG /HZLVV PRGHOV J
LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI FDSLWDO DFFXPXODWLRQ KHUH J LV GH
WHUPLQHG E\ WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI OHDUQLQJ WHFKQRORJLFDO NQRZKRZ
7KLV PDUNV DQ LQWHUHVWLQJ DOEHLW QRW HQWLUHO\ QHZ FRQWULEXWLRQ $V
KDV EHHQ PHQWLRQHG DOUHDG\ KRZHYHU WKH DXWKRUV RI WKH JURZWK
PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV KDYH KDG JUHDWHU DPEL
WLRQV 7KH RWKHU WZR PDJQLWXGHV LQ WKH +DUURG'RPDU HTXDWLRQ Y
DQG V DUH QRW WDNHQ DV FRQVWDQW 7KH\ WKHPVHOYHV DUH PRGHOOHG LQ
VXFK D ZD\ DV WR HPHUJH IURP D SURFHVV LQWHQGHG WR UHSUHVHQW PD[L
PLVLQJ EHKDYLRXU ,Q DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK DQ DSSURDFK WKDW KDV IRXQG UH
FHQW IDYRXU DQG GLIIXVLRQ WKH\ DUH SUHVHQWHG DV KDYLQJ PLFURIRXQ
GDWLRQV ,W LV IURP WKLV IHDWXUH WKDW WKH JURZWK PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



QRXV WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV DFTXLUH WKHLU HOHJDQFH DQG DW WKH VDPH WLPH
UHYHDO WKHLU QDLYHW\ %DVLFDOO\ WKH\ UHGXFH WKHLU DLP DW DQDO\VLQJ WKH
EHKDYLRXU RI D VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDO FRQVLGHUHG DV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH QR
ORQJHU D SODQQHU IRU DOO WKH RWKHU LQGLYLGXDOV EXW IRU KHUVHOI 7KLV H[
WUDRUGLQDU\ DQG TXHHU LQGLYLGXDO OLYHV IRUHYHU KDV SHUIHFW NQRZOHGJH
RI WKH WHFKQLFDO SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV DFWXDOO\ RI WKH SURGXFWLRQ
IXQFWLRQ IRU RQH VLQJOH JRRG DQG NQRZV KRZ WR LPSURYH LW LQ RWKHU
ZRUGV KRZ WR SURGXFH WHFKQLFDO NQRZKRZ  6KH NQRZV KHU XWLOLW\
IXQFWLRQ IURP QRZ WR LQILQLW\ VKH DGRSWV D JLYHQ UDWH RI LQWHU
WHPSRUDO SUHIHUHQFH DQG NQRZV SHUIHFWO\ KRZ WR DOORFDWH HIIRUWV DQG
FRQVXPSWLRQ RYHU WLPH LQ VXFK D ZD\ DV WR DFKLHYH PD[LPLVDWLRQ RI
WKH SUHVHQW YDOXH RI KHU VDWLVIDFWLRQ DJDLQ IURP QRZ WR LQILQLW\ JLYHQ
WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI SURGXFWLRQ OHDUQLQJ DQG FRQVXPHU SUHIHUHQFHV
IURP QRZ WR HWHUQLW\ ,W LV KDUG WR WKLQN KRZ VXFK VLQJXODU LQGLYLGXDO
FRXOG SRVVLEO\ EH DWWULEXWHG WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI UHSUHVHQWDWLYHQHVV
:KHWKHU VKH LV UHSUHVHQWDWLYH RU QRW LV SUHFLVHO\ WKH TXHVWLRQ WKDW
RQH ZRXOG ZLVK WR VHH GHPRQVWUDWHG
,Q DQ DJJUHJDWH PRGHO WKHVH DQDO\WLFDO H[SHGLHQWV QR GRXEW JHQ
HUDWH IRUPDO HOHJDQFH :KDW LV KDUGHU WR JUDVS LV WKHLU H[SODQDWRU\
UHOHYDQFH $ UHDVRQDEOH DWWLWXGH WR DGRSW PLJKW ZHOO VHHP WR EH WKDW
RI DVVHUWLQJ RU FODLPLQJ WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO EHLQJ FRQVLGHUHG UHSUH
VHQWV DQ DYHUDJH %XW LQ WKLV FDVH WKHUH ZRXOG EH QR JHWWLQJ DZD\ IURP
WKH QXPHURXV LQFRQVLVWHQFLHV RI WKH H[SHGLHQW DGRSWHG XQOHVV RQH
WDNHV WKH LQGHHG ZLGHVSUHDG VWUDWDJHP RI HOLPLQDWLQJ DOO SUREOHPV E\
DGGLQJ D VHULHV RI IXUWKHU VLPSOLI\LQJ DVVXPSWLRQV LQ WKLV FDVH E\ DV
VXPLQJ WKDW DOO WKH LQGLYLGXDOV DUH SHUIHFWO\ LGHQWLFDO WR RQH DQRWKHU
WKDW WKH\ KDYH H[DFWO\ WKH VDPH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ WKH VDPH WHFKQLFDO
NQRZKRZ SUHVHQW DQG IXWXUH DQG WKH VDPH VNLOOV LQ OHDUQLQJ
IRUHFDVWLQJ EHKDYLQJ UDWLRQDOO\ DQG VR RQ
2QH PD\ ZRQGHU DW WKLV SRLQW ZKHWKHU WRR PDQ\ SUREOHPV
KDYH EHHQ DVVXPHG DZD\ VLPSO\ H[ K\SRWKHVL 7KHUH LV QRW RQO\ WKH
GUDZEDFN RI LJQRULQJ WKRVH SUREOHPV DV 6RORZ SRLQWV RXW DW WKH EH
JLQQLQJ RI KLV FRQWULEXWLRQ WKDW JR XQGHU WKH UXEULF RI FRRUGLQD
WLRQ LH LQ SUDFWLFH WKH SUREOHPV RI HPSOR\PHQW DQG XQHPSOR\
PHQW ,Q IDFW WKH LQGLYLGXDO WKDW LV FRQVLGHUHG FRXOG QRW EH SDUWO\
HPSOR\HG DQG SDUWO\ LQYROXQWDULO\ XQHPSOR\HG 7KLV ZRXOG PDNH

6HH WKH VHYHUH FULWLTXH RI WKH QRWLRQ RI D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH LQGLYLGXDO PDGH E\

.LUPDQ  



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

QR VHQVH LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI WKH PRGHO LWVHOI 7KH VLQJXODU LQGLYLGXDO


WKDW LV FRQVLGHUHG FRXOG RQO\ EH HPSOR\HG DQG LQ HIIHFW SHUPDQHQWO\
HPSOR\HG LQ WKH EHVW LH RSWLPDO SRVVLEOH ZD\ %XW WKHUH LV DQ HYHQ
PRUH LPSRUWDQW SUREOHP IURP WKH SRLQW RI YLHZ RI WKLV VXUYH\ ,W EH
FRPHV SXUH QRQVHQVH WR VSHDN RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ $PRQJ ZKRP
FRXOG LQFRPH EH GLVWULEXWHG LI LW DOZD\V DQG HQWLUHO\ JRHV WR WKH VDPH
UHSUHVHQWDWLYH LQGLYLGXDO" 2I FRXUVH LW FRXOG JR WR WKH VDPH LQGL
YLGXDO LQ GLIIHUHQW IRUPV IRU H[DPSOH DV ZDJHV DQGRU DV SURILWV %XW
WR WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ LI WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH LQGLYLGXDO SRFNHWV DOO LW EH
FRPHV GLIILFXOW RU DW DQ\ UDWH SUREOHPDWLF WR ILQG DQ\ VLJQLILFDQFH ,W
LV LQ IDFW WKH VDPH LQGLYLGXDO ZKR E\ DFWLQJ ZLWK PD[LPLVLQJ EHKDY
LRXU ZLOO KDYH KHU LQFRPH HPHUJLQJ DV SURILW RU DV ZDJH DFFRUGLQJ DV
WR ZKLFK LV PRUH DSSURSULDWH IRU WKH PD[LPLVDWLRQ RI WKH XWLOLW\ DQG
SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV ,Q RWKHU ZRUGV ZKHWKHU WKH LQFRPH LV UHFHLYHG
LQ RQH IRUP RU LQ WKH RWKHU EHFRPHV D FRQVHTXHQFH RI WKH PD[LPLVLQJ
SURFHVV 2QFH DJDLQ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ EH
FRPH SXUHO\ VHFRQGDU\ ZKLFK LV D ORJLFDO FRQVHTXHQFH RI D EDVLFDOO\
QHRFODVVLFDO VFKHPH DV VKRXOG E\ QRZ KDYH EHFRPH SHUIHFWO\ FOHDU
$W WKH HQG RI KLV VXUYH\ PHQWLRQHG DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ VHH WKH
FORVH RI 6HFWLRQ  DERYH  DIWHU SRLQWLQJ RXW WKDW 9HU\ OLWWOH KDV EHHQ
VDLG LQ WKLV VXUYH\ DERXW LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ 6RORZ  S 
JRHV RQ WR JLYH D MXVWLILFDWLRQ 7KDW LV EHFDXVH WKHUH LV QR VSHFLDO
FRQQHFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO PRGHO RI JURZWK DQG WKH GHWHU
PLQDWLRQ RI IDFWRU SULFHV >LH LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ@
7KRVH ZKR KDYH IROORZHG WKH IRUHJRLQJ DUJXPHQWV ZLOO VXUHO\
XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHDVRQV RI WKLV VLQJXODU SURQRXQFHPHQW %XW LW LV LQ
WHUHVWLQJ WR QRWH WKDW 6RORZ DGGV LYL 
7KH XVXDO SUDFWLFH LV WR DSSHDO WR WKH VDPH YLHZ RI IDFWRU SULFLQJ
WKDW FKDUDFWHUL]HV VWDWLF QHRFODVVLFDO HTXLOLEULXP WKHRU\ ,I WKH
ZRUNLQJ DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW DOO PDUNHWV FOHDU ZHUH WR EH OLIWHG DQ DO
WHUQDWLYH WKHRU\ RI IDFWRU SULFHV ZRXOG FHUWDLQO\ EH QHHGHG 0XFK
HOVH ZRXOG FKDQJH EHVLGHV

)RUWXQDWHO\ D QXPEHU RI FRQWULEXWLRQV KDYH DSSHDUHG LQ WKH PRVW


UHFHQW HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH WKDW VHHP WR EH RSHQLQJ XS QHZ KRUL]RQV
SUHFLVHO\ LQ WKLV GLUHFWLRQ DQG EH\RQG

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



 7RZDUGV QHZ KRUL]RQV

7KH SUDFWLFDO LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH LVVXH RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV FOHDUO\


WRR JUHDW IRU VXFK DQ LVVXH WR EH OHIW RQ WKH IULQJH RI HFRQRPLF
UHVHDUFK GHVSLWH WKH ELDV LQ WKLV GLUHFWLRQ LQKHUHQW LQ GRPLQDQW
QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\
,Q WKLV UHVSHFW LW LV VLJQLILFDQW WKDW LQ  DW WKH $QQXDO &RQ
IHUHQFH RI WKH 5R\DO (FRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ WKH 3UHVLGHQWLDO $GGUHVV ZDV
GHYRWHG WR WKH WKHPH %ULQJLQJ LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ IURP WKH
FROG 7KH 3UHVLGHQW RI WKH 5R\DO (FRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ $QWKRQ\ $WNLQ
VRQ  S   RSHQHG KLV DGGUHVV ZLWK WKH ZRUGV
7KH WLWOH RI WKLV   LV FKRVHQ WR KLJKOLJKW WKH
ZD\ LQ ZKLFK WKH VXEMHFW RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ KDV LQ WKH SDVW
EHHQ PDUJLQDOLVHG

$WNLQVRQ SUHVHQWHG D UHYLHZ RI WKH FRQWULEXWLRQV WKDW KDYH EH


JXQ WR UHDSSHDU LQ WKH HFRQRPLF OLWHUDWXUH GXULQJ WKH ODVW IHZ \HDUV RI
WKH  FHQWXU\ RQ WKH WKHPH RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ $OWKRXJK WKHVH
FRQWULEXWLRQV DUH QRW PDQ\ LQ QXPEHU WKH\ KDYH SURPSWHG KLP WR
FRQFOXGH KLV VXUYH\ ZLWK WZR SRVLWLYH UHPDUNV 7KH ILUVW LV WKDW
LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LV EHJLQQLQJ WR UHFHLYH DJDLQ WKH DWWHQWLRQ ZKLFK
LW PHULWV $WNLQVRQ  S   7KH VHFRQG LV WKDW WKHUH LV HYL
GHQFH WKDW HFRQRPLFV LV EHJLQQLQJ WR OHDUQ LQ WKLV DUHD IURP RWKHU GLV
FLSOLQHV LYL  :KDW LV HYHQ PRUH LQWHUHVWLQJ KRZHYHU LV VRPHWKLQJ
WKDW WKH 3UHVLGHQW RI WKH 5R\DO (FRQRPLF 6RFLHW\ GLG QRW VD\ RU GLG
QRW QRWLFH  QDPHO\ WKDW DOO WKH UHFHQW FRQWULEXWLRQV RQ ZKLFK KH
SXWV VR PXFK KRSH KDYH EHHQ LQWURGXFHG IURP RXWVLGH QHRFODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ HYHQ ZKHQ DV KDV KDSSHQHG IRU WKRVH FRQWULEX
WLRQV WKDW E\ EHLQJ SXEOLVKHG LQ WKH PDMRU PDLQVWUHDP MRXUQDOV
KDYH DWWUDFWHG PRVW DWWHQWLRQ WKH\ KDYH EHHQ LQVHUWHG LQWR QHRFODVVL
FDO WKHRU\
,Q VKRUW RQH PD\ OLVW DW OHDVW IRXU QHZ OLQHV RI UHVHDUFK 7KHUH
LV LQ WKH ILUVW SODFH WKH RQH WKDW HPHUJHV IURP WKH ZRUGV RI 6RORZV
VXUYH\ TXRWHG DW WKH HQG RI WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ 6RORZ  S  
QDPHO\ WKDW >L@I WKH ZRUNLQJ DVVXPSWLRQ WKDW DOO PDUNHWV FOHDU ZHUH
WR EH OLIWHG DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WKHRU\ RI IDFWRU SULFHV >DQG WKXV RI LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWLRQ@ ZRXOG FHUWDLQO\ EH QHHGHG ,Q IDFW LQ WKH HDUO\ HQWKXVL
DVP RYHU WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK 6WLJOLW] 
WK



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

KDG VWXGLHG KRZ LQ D VWULFWO\ QHRFODVVLFDO JURZWK PRGHO ZLWK DOO LWV
W\SLFDO DVVXPSWLRQV DEVHQFH RI LQWULQVLF GLIIHUHQFHV DPRQJ LQGLYLGX
DOV DEVHQFH RI DQ\ LPSHUIHFWLRQV LQ WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW DEVHQFH RI
H[WHUQDO VKRFNV HWF LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DPRQJ LQGLYLGXDOV
ZRXOG LQ WKH ORQJ SHULRG WHQG WR FRQYHUJH WRZDUGV HTXDOLW\ DQG VR
ZRXOG WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ZHDOWK  +H KDG KRZHYHU DOVR SURFHHGHG
WR DEDQGRQ VRPH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO DVVXPSWLRQV WKHUHE\ ILQGLQJ
WKDW LQ HDFK RI WKHVH FDVH WKH LQHTXDOLWLHV QRW RQO\ ZRXOG UHDSSHDU
EXW ZRXOG DFWXDOO\ WHQG YHU\ UDSLGO\ WR LQFUHDVH 7KLV VHFRQG DVSHFW
RI KLV DUWLFOH GLG QRW ILQG IXUWKHU GHYHORSPHQWV RU IROORZHUV %XW LW
KDV QRZ UHDSSHDUHG LQ WKH JURZWK PRGHOV ZLWK HQGRJHQRXV WHFKQLFDO
SURJUHVV $ UHFHQW FRQWULEXWLRQ E\ *DORU DQG =HLUD  KDV RSHQHG
XS D ZKROH VSDWH RI QHZ UHVHDUFK RQ WKLV DVSHFW ,W KDV EHHQ UHDOLVHG
WKDW HYHQ ZKHQ RQH VWDUWV IURP DQ LQLWLDO QHRFODVVLFDO VHWXS WKH PHUH
LQWURGXFWLRQ RI K\SRWKHVHV RI LPSHUIHFWLRQV LQ WKH FDSLWDO PDUNHW
FRPELQHG ZLWK WKH K\SRWKHVLV RI LQLWLDO XQHTXDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI
ZHDOWK IRU H[DPSOH RZLQJ WR LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ LQKHULWHG UHVRXUFHV
H[HUW LQIOXHQFH RYHU WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV RI VLQJOH LQGLYLGXDOV WR KDYH DF
FHVV WR YDULRXV GHJUHHV RI HGXFDWLRQ LH WR ZKDW LV LPSURSHUO\ FDOOHG
WKH DFFXPXODWLRQ RI KXPDQ FDSLWDO  7KLV FDQ EULQJ DERXW FRQVLGHU
DEOH FRQVHTXHQFHV IRU WKH HFRQRPLF YDULDEOHV ERWK LQ WKH VKRUW DQG LQ
WKH ORQJ UXQ JLYLQJ ULVH WR GLYHUJLQJ G\QDPLF PRYHPHQWV WKDW LV WR
VD\ WR ZLGHQLQJ LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ LQFRPH DQG ZHDOWK
$ VHFRQG OLQH RI UHVHDUFK KDV EHHQ SXUVXHG LQ D VWULFWO\ QHR
FODVVLFDO HQGRJHQRXV JURZWK PRGHO E\ *LXVHSSH %HUWROD  DQG
  ZKR KDV LQWURGXFHG D GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WZR FDWHJRULHV RI
DJHQWV DOWKRXJK ERWK DUH VXSSRVHG WR KDYH WKH VDPH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ
WR EH PD[LPLVHG XQGHU XVXDO FRQVWUDLQWV RQ OLPLWOHVV KRUL]RQV 7KH
GLIIHUHQFH WKDW KDV EHHQ LQWURGXFHG LV WR VXSSRVH WKDW RQH FDWHJRU\
GHULYH DOO WKHLU LQFRPH IURP WKH RZQHUVKLS RI FDSLWDO JRRGV DQG WKH
RWKHUV IURP QRQSURGXFHG UHVRXUFHV LH ODERXU DQG ODQG EHWZHHQ
ZKLFK QR GLVWLQFWLRQ LV PDGH E\ WKH DXWKRU  7KH LQWHUHVWLQJ ILQGLQJ
LV WKDW WKH SURFHVV RI PD[LPLVDWLRQ RI WKH YHU\ VDPH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ
OHDGV WKH ILUVW FDWHJRU\ OHW XV FDOO WKHP WKH FDSLWDOLVWV WR D SRVLWLYH
SURSHQVLW\ WR VDYH DQG WKH VHFRQG FDWHJRU\ OHW XV FDOO WKHP WKH
ZRUNHUV DQG ODQGRZQHUV WR D ]HUR SURSHQVLW\ WR VDYH 7KXV WKH
%HUWROD PRGHO HQGV XS E\ UDWLRQDOLVLQJ LQ WHUPV RI PLFURHFRQRPLF
EHKDYLRXU ZKDW 5LFDUGR DQG .DOGRU KDG VLPSO\ DVVXPHG QDPHO\
WKDW RQO\ SURILWV DUH VDYHG DOO VDYLQJV DUH SHUIRUPHG E\ WKH FDSLWDO

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



LVWV ZKLOH ZDJHV DQG UHQWV DUH HQWLUHO\ GHYRWHG WR FRQVXPSWLRQ


7KH RWKHU LQWHUHVWLQJ UHVXOW WKDW LPSOLFLWO\ UHHPHUJHV IURP WKLV
PRGHO LV WKDW RQFH DJDLQ LW EULQJV RXW ZH PLJKW HYHQ VD\ LW UH
GLVFRYHUV WKH IXQGDPHQWDO DV\PPHWU\ EHWZHHQ WKH IDFWRU RI SURGXF
WLRQ FDSLWDO RQ WKH RQH KDQG DQG WKH IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ ODERXU
DQG ODQG RQ WKH RWKHU DQ DV\PPHWU\ WKDW ZDV DW WKH EDVLV RI FODVVLFDO
HFRQRPLFV DQG KDG UHHPHUJHG IURP WKH UHVZLWFKLQJ FRQWURYHUV\ EXW
KDG VLQFH EHHQ IRUJRWWHQ RU LJQRUHG LQ PDLQVWUHDP HFRQRPLF OLWHUD
WXUH ,W LV WKXV QRW VXUSULVLQJ WKDW UHVXOWV YHU\ VLPLODU WR WKRVH RI %HU
WROD KDG LQ IDFW HPHUJHG HYHQ HDUOLHU DQWLFLSDWHG E\ VFKRODUV SXUVXLQJ
.H\QHVLDQ.DOGRULDQ OLQHV RI WKRXJKW )RU H[DPSOH 0DXUR %DUDQ]LQL
  LQ D ZRUN DGRSWLQJ D VWULFW .DOGRULDQ DSSURDFK EXW DEVRUELQJ
LQWR WKH DQDO\VLV HOHPHQWV RI WKH OLIHF\FOH VDYLQJV K\SRWKHVLV LQ DQ
RYHUODSSLQJ JHQHUDWLRQ FRQWH[W EHJDQ WR LQWURGXFH K\SRWKHVHV RQ
PLFUREHKDYLRXU DW WKH OHYHO RI VLQJOH FRQVXPHUV ZKR DUH VXSSRVHG WR
EH FRQFHUQHG QRW RQO\ ZLWK WKHLU XWLOLW\ EXW DOVR ZLWK WKH ZHOIDUH RI
WKHLU FKLOGUHQ %DUDQ]LQLV UHVXOWV KDYH VHHQ WKH UHDSSHDUDQFH RI WKH
&DPEULGJH HTXDWLRQ ZKHUH ZRUNHUV VDYLQJV KDYH QR UHOHYDQFH VHH
6HFWLRQ  DERYH  DQG ZKHUH WKH UDWH RI SURILWV DQG WKXV WKH GLVWULEX
WLRQ RI LQFRPH DUH GHWHUPLQHG LQGHSHQGHQWO\ RI WKH IRUP RI WKH SUR
GXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ
$ WKLUG OLQH RI UHVHDUFK KDV FRPH DERXW ZLWK WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI
D SROLWLFDO FKDQQHO LQWR WKH HQGRJHQRXV JURZWK PRGHOV VHH DPRQJ
RWKHUV 3HURWWL  %HUWROD  $OHVLQD DQG 5RGULN  3HUVVRQ
DQG 7DEHOOLQL   7KLV OLWHUDWXUH LQ IDFW WULHV DQ H[SODQDWLRQ QRW
RI WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI LQFRPH DQG RI ZHDOWK ZKLFK DFFRUGLQJ WR D
VWULFW QHRFODVVLFDO FDQRQ LV WDNHQ DV JLYHQ EXW RI D SROLWLFDO GHFLVLRQ D
GHFLVLRQ RI SXEOLF FKRLFH FRQFHUQLQJ WKH UHGLVWULEXWLRQ RI H[LVWLQJ
ZHDOWK 7KH H[SHGLHQW LV VLPSOH EXW LQJHQLRXV ,W EHJLQV E\ DFFHSWLQJ
WKH QHRFODVVLFDO DSSURDFK RI WDNLQJ DV JLYHQ DW D FHUWDLQ SRLQW LQ WLPH
WKH H[LVWLQJ GLVWULEXWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV DPRQJ WKH YDULRXV HFRQRPLF
DJHQWV DVVXPHG WR KDYH DOO WKH VDPH XWLOLW\ IXQFWLRQ DQG WR DFW LQ
FRQGLWLRQV RI SHUIHFW NQRZOHGJH SHUIHFWO\ IUHH FRPSHWLWLRQ DQG VR
IRUWK +RZHYHU D KHWHURJHQHLW\ LV FRQVLGHUHG DPRQJ WKHP WKH RQO\
KHWHURJHQHLW\ WR EH WDNHQ LQWR FRQVLGHUDWLRQ  GHULYLQJ IURP DQ LQLWLDO
XQHTXDO GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ZHDOWK %\ FRQVLGHULQJ JURXSV RI DJHQWV VXE
GLYLGHG DFFRUGLQJ WR FODVVHV RI LQFRPH WKHLU LQWHUHVWV ZLOO FRPH LQWR
FRQIOLFW RYHU WKH SXEOLF GHFLVLRQ WR VHW WKH OHYHO RI LQFRPH WD[ UDWHV
VLQFH WKH WD[ ZLOO ZHLJK KHDYLHU RQ WKH ULFKHU WD[SD\HUV ZKLOH LW



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

VHHPV UHDVRQDEOH WR VXSSRVH WKDW WKH SXEOLF DXWKRULW\ ZLOO UHGLVWULEXWH


WKH WD[ UHYHQXH LQ DQ HJDOLWDULDQ ZD\ RU ZLOO VSHQG LW RQ SXEOLF VHUY
LFHV LQ SDUWLFXODU RQ HGXFDWLRQ ZKLFK EHQHILW DOO DJDLQ LQ HJDOLWDULDQ
ZD\ 7KH LGHD KDV EHHQ WR HQGRJHQLVH D SURFHGXUH RI SXEOLF FKRLFH
EDVHG RQ WKH PHGLDQYRWHU WKHRUHP 0XHOOHU   7KLV WKHRUHP
JXDUDQWHHV WKDW XQGHU FHUWDLQ FRQGLWLRQV WKH UDWH WKDW LV FKRVHQ ZLOO
WXUQ RXW WR EH WKH RQH SUHIHUUHG E\ WKH YRWHU WKDW KDV DQ LQFRPH HTXDO
WR WKH PHGLDQ )URP WKLV UHVXOW RQH FDQ GUDZ FRQFOXVLRQV RQ WKH UH
ODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ WKH GHJUHH RI LQFRPH LQHTXDOLW\ DQG HFRQRPLF
JURZWK 2Q WKLV EDVLV WKH DXWKRUV ZLWK VRPH FRXUDJH RQH PD\ VD\
KDYH FDUULHG RXW HPSLULFDO WHVWV E\ FRPSDULQJ GDWD IRU YDULRXV FRXQ
WULHV $V ZDV RQO\ WR EH H[SHFWHG WKH UHVXOWV KDYH SURYHG UDWKHU LQ
FRQFOXVLYH 1HYHUWKHOHVV WKH LQWURGXFWLRQ RI SXEOLF FKRLFH FRQVLGHUD
WLRQV DQG WKHRUHPV H[WUDQHRXV WR VWULFW HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDV LQ
JHQHUDO EHHQ JUHHWHG ZLWK VDWLVIDFWLRQ
)LQDOO\ D IRXUWK OLQH RI UHVHDUFK KDV IRFXVHG RQ SHUVRQDO LQFRPH
LQHTXDOLWLHV DQG PRUH SDUWLFXODUO\ RQ ZDJH GLIIHUHQWLDOV DPRQJ
ZRUNHUV RSHUDWLQJ DW YDULRXV OHYHOV RI UHVSRQVLELOLW\ XVXDOO\ EXW QRW
DOZD\V FRUUHVSRQGLQJ WR YDULRXV GHJUHHV RI HGXFDWLRQ RU RI VHQLRU
LW\ ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH LQGXVWU\ DQG HYHQ ZLWKLQ WKH VDPH ILUP OHW DORQH
EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW EUDQFKHV RI LQGXVWU\
7KH VXEMHFW RI LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV KDG EHHQ DGGUHVVHG LQ WKH
SDVW PRUH E\ VWDWLVWLFLDQV DQG GHPRJUDSKHUV WKDQ E\ HFRQRPLVWV
WKRXJK ZLWK VRPH QRWDEOH H[FHSWLRQV OHW PH UHFDOO 3DUHWRV 
SHUVRQDO LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ IXQFWLRQ ZKLFK KRZHYHU KDV QRWKLQJ WR
GR ZLWK KLV HFRQRPLF WKHRULHV EXW DOVR UHFHQWO\ &KDPSHUQRZQH
DQG &RZHOO  ZKLOH WKH SUREOHPV RI ZDJH GLIIHUHQWLDOV KDG LQ
WKH PDLQ EHHQ OHIW DV D SUHURJDWLYH RI ODERXU HFRQRPLVWV 7KH IDFW UH
PDLQV WKDW QR JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG ZD\ KDG \HW EHHQ SURSRVHG WR DF
FRPPRGDWH WKH LVVXH RI SHUVRQDO LQFRPH LQHTXDOLWLHV ,Q WKLV ILHOG
ERWK FODVVLFDO.H\QHVLDQ WKHRULHV DQG QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ KDYH WUDGL
WLRQDOO\ GHDOW ZLWK WKH WKHPH RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI LQ
FRPH VKDUHV UHQW SURILWV ZDJHV DWWULEXWHG WR WKH FDWHJRULHV RI SHR
SOH ZKR DUH EHKLQG WKH IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ 7KLV DSSURDFK KDG D
MXVWLILFDWLRQ DW WKH GDZQ RI WKH LQGXVWULDO UHYROXWLRQ ZKHQ LW VHHPHG
UHDVRQDEOH WR DVVRFLDWH WKH WKUHH IDFWRUV RI SURGXFWLRQ ZLWK WKUHH GLV
WLQFW VRFLDO FODVVHV EXW LW KDV QR ORQJHU WKH VDPH MXVWLILFDWLRQ RU DW
OHDVW QRW WR WKH VDPH H[WHQW LQ RXU HFRQRPLHV WRGD\ ZKHQ WKH YHU\
QRWLRQ RI VRFLDO FODVV KDV JURZQ LQ VRPH VHQVH YDJXHU DQG LQ VRPH

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



RWKHU VHQVH PXFK PRUH FRPSOH[ WKDQ LW XVHG WR EH LQ WKH SDVW VHH LQ
WKLV FRQQHFWLRQ WKH ZRUN RQ VRFLDO FODVVHV E\ 6\ORV /DELQL  DQG
WKH HQVXLQJ GLVFXVVLRQV  7KH LVVXH RI ZDJH GLIIHUHQWLDOV LV HYHQ PRUH
FRPSOH[ ,W KDV VXUSULVLQJO\ UHFHLYHG YHU\ OLWWOH DWWHQWLRQ LQ HFRQRPLF
WKHRU\ LQ WKH SDVW LQ VSLWH RI LWV XQGHQLDEOH UHODWLRQVKLS ZLWK WKH
SUREOHPV RI HPSOR\PHQW LQYROXQWDU\ XQHPSOR\PHQW DQG PRUH
JHQHUDOO\ ZLWK WKH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH ODERXU PDUNHW LI LQGHHG WKLV
SDUWLFXODU WHUP FDQ EH XVHG DW DOO IRU ODERXU
%XW UHFHQWO\ SUHFLVHO\ WKH SDUWLFXODU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WDNHQ XS E\
WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV ZLWK LWV ZLGHO\ GLVSHUVHG GLVVLPLODULWLHV LQ FDXVLQJ
WKH PRVW GLYHUVH LQFUHDVHV LQ SURGXFWLYLW\ LQ WKH YDULRXV EUDQFKHV RI
RXU HFRQRPLHV KDYH VWLPXODWHG D OLYHO\ GHEDWH 2Q WKH RQH VLGH WKH
DGYRFDWHV RI D FRPSHWLWLYH IUHH PDUNHW V\VWHP FODLP WKDW WKLV DSSOLHV
WR WKH ODERXU PDUNHW DV ZHOO ZLWK DOO WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI IOH[LELOLW\
ZKLFK DUH VXSSRVHG WR EULQJ HYHU\ FRPSHWLWLYH PDUNHW WR IXOO HP
SOR\PHQW HTXLOLEULXP 7KH\ DWWULEXWH WKH ZDJH GLIIHUHQWLDOV WR ZKDW
WKH\ FDOO VNLOO ELDVHG WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV ZDJHV LQFUHDVH IRU WKRVH
SHRSOH ZKR DUH LQ GHPDQG RZLQJ WR WKHLU VNLOOV EHWWHU HGXFDWLRQ DQG
DELOLW\ WR RSHUDWH FRPSXWHUGRPLQDWHG WHFKQRORJLHV 2Q WKH RWKHU
VLGH WKHUH DUH WKRVH ZKR VHH SURIRXQG DQG SHFXOLDU FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LQ
WKH ODERXU PDUNHW VWUXFWXUDOO\ GLVWLQFW IURP WKRVH RI WKH PDUNHWV
IRU JRRGV SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH LW LQYROYHV WKH VXEMHFWV RI HFRQRPLF DFWLY
LW\ WKHPVHOYHV )URP WKLV YLHZSRLQW LW ZRXOG DSSHDU LQDSSURSULDWH WR
DSSO\ WR WKH ODERXU PDUNHW WKH VDPH FRQFHSWV DQG LQGHHG WKH VDPH
UXOHV RI WKH FRPSHWLWLYH PDUNHWV DV LI ODERXU ZHUH D FRPPRGLW\ OLNH
DQ\ RWKHU /HW PH UHFDOO IRU H[DPSOH /HVWHU 7KXURZ  ZKR LQ
FULWLFLVLQJ WKH WKHRU\ RI PDUJLQDO SURGXFWLYLW\ KDV GUDZQ DWWHQWLRQ
RQ WKH FULWHULRQ RI HTXLW\ DV DJDLQVW WKDW RI HIILFLHQF\ DQG DOVR
$GULDQ :RRGV 7KHRU\ RI 3D\   EDVHG RQ WKH FRQFHSW RI IDLU
SD\ DV H[SUHVVHG E\ WKH DFWLRQV RI WKH 7UDGH 8QLRQV ZKR KRZHYHU
FDQQRW UHPDLQ HQWLUHO\ EOLQG WR WKH IRUFHV RI VXSSO\ DQG GHPDQG
ZKHQ WKHVH FRPH LQWR FRQIOLFW ZLWK WKH VWDQGDUG RI IDLU SD\ /HW PH
DOVR PHQWLRQ WKH ODWHVW ZRUN E\ 7RQ\ $WNLQVRQ   ZKR KDV FULWL
FLVHG WKH PDLQVWUHDP WUDQVDWODQWLF FRQVHQVXV RQ WKH LQHYLWDELOLW\ RI
ULVLQJ LQHTXDOLWLHV DQG KDV VWUHVVHG LQVWHDG WKH UHOHYDQFH RI VRFLDO
QRUPV DQG WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI SXEOLF SROLFLHV DLPHG DW UHGLVWULEXWLQJ
SHUVRQDO LQFRPHV
%XW SHUKDSV WKH PRVW RULJLQDO DQG SURYRFDWLYH UHFHQW ZRUN RQ
WKLV VXEMHFW LV WKH RQH E\ -DPHV *DOEUDLWK   ZKR RXWULJKW UHMHFWV



%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ

WKH VNLOOHGELDVHG WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV K\SRWKHVLV +H DUJXHV WKDW WKH


ZLGHQLQJ JDS LQ $PHULFDQ SD\ VWDUWHG EHIRUH WKH GLIIXVLRQ RI WKH
FRPSXWHU WHFKQRORJ\ DQG WKDW WKH VKDUS LQFUHDVHV LQ SD\ LQHTXDOLWLHV
DUH FDXVHG QRW E\ FRPSHWLWLRQ EXW E\ LWV RSSRVLWH WKH DFWLRQ RI LQ
WHUORFNLQJ PRQRSROLHV ,QYHQWLRQV KH FODLPV DUH FUHDWHG WR LQ
FUHDVH PRQRSRO\ SRZHU ZKLOH WKH LQQRYDWLQJ HQWUHSUHQHXUV FR
LQYROYH WKHLU HPSOR\HHV LQ WKLV SURFHVV 7KH WHFKQRORJLFDO LPSURYH
PHQWV DUH WKXV SUHVHQWHG DV LQHTXDOLW\ LQFUHDVLQJ IRUFHV +H GUDZV D
QXPEHU RI LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU HFRQRPLF SROLF\ ZKLFK LQ WXUQ OHDG KLP
WR VWUHVV WKH QHFHVVLW\ RI LQYHVWLJDWLQJ KRZ WR VKDSH DSSURSULDWH LQVWL
WXWLRQV IRU D WHFKQRORJLFDOO\ DGYDQFHG VRFLHW\
,W PD\ EH LQWHUHVWLQJ WR PHQWLRQ WKDW 6RORZ  KLPVHOI KDV
UHFHQWO\ FRPH URXQG WR WKH LGHD RI FRQVLGHULQJ WKH ODERXU PDUNHW DV
D VRFLDO LQVWLWXWLRQ +HUH ZH DUH HYLGHQWO\ PRYLQJ LQWR D ILHOG WKDW
RI LQVWLWXWLRQV O\LQJ EH\RQG HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ LQ WKH VWULFW VHQVH EXW
WKH LQFOXVLRQ RI ZKLFK LQWR WKH DQDO\VLV VHHPV HVVHQWLDO LI ZH ZLVK WR
XQGHUVWDQG DQG H[SODLQ WKH PRVW VLJQLILFDQW VRFLDO SKHQRPHQD FKDUDF
WHULVLQJ WKH SUHVHQW VWDJH RI GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH DGYDQFHG LQGXVWULDO
VRFLHWLHV
,Q WKLV GLUHFWLRQ WKH KHOS WKDW HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDV EHHQ JLYLQJ
VR IDU DSSHDUV XQVDWLVIDFWRU\ ZKLOH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQ WKDW PD\ EH H[
SHFWHG LQ SDUWLFXODU IURP WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEX
WLRQ VHHPV GHFLGHGO\ VFDQW
 $ ILQDO FULWLTXH

3HUKDSV WKH VHYHUHVW FULWLFLVP WKDW FDQ EH PRYHG WR QHRFODVVLFDO


HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ LV WKDW RI KDYLQJ SXVKHG WKH WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH
GLVWULEXWLRQ LQWR D VHFRQGDU\ PDUJLQDO UROH 7KLV KDV KDSSHQHG
RZLQJ WR D FRPELQDWLRQ RI WZR RI LWV W\SLFDO IHDWXUHV WKH SURPLQHQFH
DFFRUGHG WR WKH VFKHPH RI RSWLPDO DOORFDWLRQ RI UHVRXUFHV LQ WKH
$UURZ'HEUHX YHUVLRQ DQG LWV QHJOHFW RI WKH ORJLFDO LQFRQVLVWHQFLHV
LQKHUHQW LQ VRPH RI LWV DQDO\WLFDO WRROV 7KHVH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WHQG WR
SHUVLVW GHVSLWH D QXPEHU RI VWURQJ LQQRYDWLYH GHYHORSPHQWV VXFK DV
WKRVH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI HQGRJHQRXVO\ PRWLYDWHG
WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



,Q VXFK FRQGLWLRQV LW LV WKH UHDO DQG FRQFUHWH HYLGHQFH RI WKH


GD\WRGD\ HPSLULFDO LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH SUREOHPV FRQQHFWHG ZLWK LQ
FRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WKDW VHHPV WR PDNH VRPH VRUW RI UHVXPSWLRQ RI WKH
HDUOLHU PDUJLQDOLVHG WKHPH RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ QHFHVVDU\ +RZ
HYHU ZH PXVW DVN RXUVHOYHV ZKHWKHU DGGUHVVLQJ WKH SUREOHPV RI GLV
WULEXWLRQ LQ WKLV ZD\ LV UHDOO\ RI KHOS RU RQ WKH FRQWUDU\ PD\ EH D
KLQGUDQFH WR RXU VHDUFK IRU VRPH UHDVRQDEOH JXLGDQFH LQ XQGHUVWDQG
LQJ WKH UHDOLWLHV RI WKH ZRUOG LQ ZKLFK ZH OLYH
7KHUH FDQ EH QR ORQJHU DQ\ GRXEW WKDW WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV UH
FHLYLQJ DW ODVW UHQHZHG DWWHQWLRQ LV D EDVLF DQG LQGHHG FUXFLDO DVSHFW RI
WRGD\V LQGXVWULDO VRFLHWLHV 1HRFODVVLFDO HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDG IRU WRR
ORQJ QHJOHFWHG WKH VXEMHFW ZKLOH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLFV KDG WUHDWHG LW LQ D
QRQV\VWHPDWLF ZD\ DQG LQ DQ\ FDVH KDG DOZD\V XQGHUHVWLPDWHG LWV XO
WLPDWH FRQVHTXHQFHV 'RPLQDQW HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ KDV DW ORQJ ODVW
EURXJKW WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV EDFN LQWR DQDO\VLV LQ D VWURQJ ZD\ EXW LW LV
VWLOO FRQFHQWUDWLQJ RQO\ RQ D SDUWLFXODU IRUP RI LW QDPHO\ WKH HQ
GRJHQRXV IRUP ZKLFK LV QRW WKH RQO\ IRUP RI WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV
DQG PRVW RI DOO LW LV VWLOO WUHDWLQJ LW LQ WKH DJJUHJDWH IRUP DQ DS
SURDFK WKDW GHILQLWHO\ DSSHDUV E\ QRZ XQMXVWLILDEOH DQG HYHQ PLVOHDG
LQJ $ERYH DOO LW KDV LQVHUWHG LW LQWR D QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRUHWLFDO DSSDUD
WXV DW WKH FRVW RI SXVKLQJ WKH SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ WR WKH
PDUJLQ WKXV FRPSHOOLQJ WKH WKHRULVWV WR ILQG VRPH ZD\ RI EULQJLQJ
WKHP EDFN IURP RXWVLGH ZKHQ WKH\ UHDOLVH WKDW WKH\ DUH EHFRPLQJ
WRR LPSRUWDQW
,V WKLV WKH FRUUHFW ZD\ DKHDG" $Q DIILUPDWLYH DQVZHU PLJKW HYHQ
VRXQG DFFHSWDEOH WR D FHUWDLQ H[WHQW LI LW FRXOG EH DUJXHG WKDW WHFKQL
FDO SURJUHVV UHGXFHV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH GLVWUL
EXWLRQ %XW LI ZH ORRN DURXQG XV ZH JHW WKH LPSUHVVLRQ WKDW MXVW WKH
RSSRVLWH LV WKH FDVH
$PRQJ WKH HFRQRPLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKDW KDYH PRVW SURIRXQGO\
PDUNHG WKH ODVW GHFDGHV RI WKH  FHQWXU\ LQFRPH DQG ZHDOWK LQH
TXDOLWLHV LQ DOO WKHLU YDULRXV DVSHFWV HPHUJH DV RQH RI WKH PRVW LPSRU
WDQW DQG GLVTXLHWLQJ SKHQRPHQD $QG LW LV SUHFLVHO\ WKH SDUWLFXODU
ZD\ LQ ZKLFK WHFKQLFDO SURJUHVV LV WDNLQJ SODFH ZLWK LWV W\SLFDO IHD
WXUHV JHQHUDWLQJ QHZ VHFWRUV DQG VWLPXODWLQJ RU SURGXFLQJ QHZ W\SHV
RI GHPDQG WKDW LV FRQVWDQWO\ PRGLI\LQJ DQG SUHVVLQJ RQ WKH LQH
TXDOLWLHV
7KH FODVVLFDO HFRQRPLVWV KDG VRPHZKDW VLPSOLVWLFDOO\ WKRXJKW LQ
WHUPV RI WKUHH FDWHJRULHV RI LQFRPH UHFLSLHQWV FRQYLQFHG DV WKH\ ZHUH
WK

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ



WKDW LQ GRLQJ VR WKH\ FRXOG H[DPLQH KRZ WKH PRYHPHQWV LQ SURGXF


WLRQ FRQWULEXWH WR PRGLI\LQJ WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI ZKDW LV SURGXFHG
7KH SLFWXUH KDV E\ QRZ JURZQ IDU PRUH FRPSOH[ DQG LQ PDQ\
UHVSHFWV LW KDV UDGLFDOO\ FKDQJHG ,QHTXDOLWLHV RFFXU QRW RQO\ DPRQJ
WKH WKUHH W\SLFDO FDWHJRULHV RI LQFRPH UHFLSLHQWV EXW DOVR ZLWKLQ WKHVH
FDWHJRULHV $W WKH VDPH WLPH IXUWKHU FDWHJRULHV HPHUJH DQG DUH DGGHG
:H PXVW PRUHRYHU WDNH DFFRXQW RI WKH GLVWLQFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKRVH
ZKR SHUIRUP D SURGXFWLYH DFWLYLW\ RU LQ RWKHU ZRUGV KDYH MREV DV
HPSOR\HHV RU VHOIHPSOR\HG  DQG WKRVH ZKR DJDLQVW WKHLU ZLOO UH
PDLQ H[FOXGHG IURP HPSOR\PHQW 1HZ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV DUH DOVR HPHUJ
LQJ ZKLFK WKH GLIIXVLRQ LWVHOI RU WKH IDLOXUH WR JHW GLIIXVHG RI WHFK
QRORJLFDO NQRZKRZ LV FRQIHUULQJ RQ WKH YDULRXV HFRQRPLF V\VWHPV
WKDW DUH FRPSHWLQJ ZLWK RU FRQWUDVWLQJ RQH DQRWKHU
1HYHU LQ WKH KLVWRU\ RI PDQNLQG KDV WKH ZRUOG VKRZQ VXFK
VKDUS LQHTXDOLWLHV LQ LQFRPH DQG ZHDOWK DV DUH WR EH VHHQ DW WKH HQG RI
WKH  FHQWXU\
7KH ILQDO LPSUHVVLRQ LV WKDW WKH PRVW DSSURSULDWH VFKHPHV IRU
HFRQRPLF WKHRU\ DUH SUHFLVHO\ WKRVH WKDW ZLGHQ WKH VFRSH IRU UHVHDUFK
LQWR WKH SUREOHPV RI LQFRPH DQG ZHDOWK GLVWULEXWLRQ QRW WKRVH WKDW
DUH SXVKLQJ WKHP WR WKH PDUJLQ
,W PD\ SHUKDSV EH ZRUWK UHFDOOLQJ DV QRWHG LQ 6HFWLRQ  WKDW D
ZKROH DOWHUQDWLYH VWUHDP RI UHVHDUFK DQG SUHFLVHO\ WKDW GHULYLQJ
IURP FODVVLFDO WKHRU\ LQ LWV PRUH PRGHUQ YHUVLRQV DV FRQFHLYHG IRU
H[DPSOH E\ .DOHFNL .DOGRU .H\QHV 6UDIID DQG PDQ\ RWKHUV ZKR
KDYH FRPH DIWHU DQG IROORZHG WKHP KDV EHHQ OHIW DVLGH RYHU WKH SDVW
IHZ GHFDGHV <HW WKH FODVVLFDO.H\QHVLDQ VWUHDP RI WKRXJKW DSSHDUV E\
IDU DV D PRUH IDYRXUDEOH IUDPH RI WKRXJKW WKDQ WKH QHRFODVVLFDO RQH
IRU WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI UHVHDUFK LQWR WKH ZKROH LQVWLWXWLRQDO RUJDQLVD
WLRQ RI WKH HFRQRPLF V\VWHPV SUHFLVHO\ EHFDXVH RI LWV FDSDELOLW\ WR DE
VRUE WKH GLIIXVHG FKDQJHV EURXJKW DERXW E\ WKH VWUXFWXUDO G\QDPLFV
LPSRVHG E\ WKH QHZ WHFKQRORJLHV *LYHQ WKH SUHVHQW XQVDWLVIDFWRU\
VLWXDWLRQ RI WKH WKHRU\ RI LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ RQH VKRXOG DW OHDVW
FRQVLGHU KDYLQJ VHFRQG WKRXJKWV RQ ZKDW KDV EHHQ WRR TXLHWO\ DEDQ
GRQHG ZLWKRXW DQ\ MXVWLILFDWLRQ ,W PLJKW ZHOO UHSUHVHQW D IUXLWIXO UH
VHUYH :KR LQGHHG FRXOG UHDVRQDEO\ UXOH RXW WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WKDW D
WUXO\ YLJRURXV UHYLYDO RI WKLV DOWHUQDWLYH FXUUHQW RI HFRQRPLF UHVHDUFK
PLJKW RSHQ XS IDU PRUH LQWHUHVWLQJ DQG SURPLVLQJ RSSRUWXQLWLHV DQG
SURVSHFWV WKDQ WKRVH WKDW DUH DW SUHVHQW EHLQJ SXUVXHG"
WK

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



5()(5(1&(6

' 5   'LVWULEXWLYH SROLWLFV DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK 4XDU


WHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 
 5*'   0DFURHFRQRPLF 7KHRU\ 0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ
$
$ -   2EVHUYDWLRQV RQ WKH 0HDQV RI ([FLWLQJ D 6SLULW RI 1DWLRQDO ,QGXV
WU\ &KLHIO\ ,QWHQGHG WR 3URPRWH WKH $JULFXOWXUH &RPPHUFH 0DQXIDFWXUHV DQG
)LVKHULHV RI 6FRWODQG 7 &DGHOO& (OOLRW (GLQEXUJK

 $ H




 

. DQG * '

  ([LVWHQFH RI HTXLOLEULXP IRU D FRPSHWLWLYH HFR

(FRQRPHWULFD YRO  SS 


DQG )+ +   *HQHUDO &RPSHWLWLYH $QDO\VLV

QRP\




.

2OLYHU %R\G

(GLQEXUJK

 

 7KH (FR

$%   %ULQJLQJ LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ IURP WKH FROG

QRPLF -RXUQDO YRO  SS 

  $%

  ,V ULVLQJ LQHTXDOLW\ LQHYLWDEOH" $ FULWLTXH RI WKH WUDQVDWODQWLF

:LGHU $QQXDO /HFWXUH  81:,'(5 +HOVLQNL


  $ 7KHRU\ RI :HDOWK 'LVWULEXWLRQ DQG $FFXPXODWLRQ

FRQVHQVXV



0

&ODUHQ

GRQ 3UHVV 2[IRUG

7KH $PHUL

 

*   )DFWRU VKDUHV DQG VDYLQJV LQ HQGRJHQRXV JURZWK

 

*   :DJHV SURILWV DQG WKHRULHV RI JURZWK LQ // 3DVLQHWWL DQG

FDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ YRO  SS 

50 6RORZ HGV

(FRQRPLF *URZWK DQG WKH 6WUXFWXUH RI /RQJ 7HUP 'HYHORSPHQW

0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ SS 



(  

&DSLWDO 7KHRU\ DQG '\QDPLFV

&DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV

&DPEULGJH

 (   $ 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 7KHRU\ 36 .LQJ 6RQ /WG /RQGRQ

&




&

'*   7KH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ DQG WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSL

7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 


  (FRQRPLF ,QHTXDOLW\ DQG ,QFRPH
&
 '* DQG )$ &

'LVWULEXWLRQ &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH
WDO D FRPPHQW

 

&

-% >@   (WKLFV RI GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ 3 1HZPDQ - (DWZHOO DQG 0

7KH 1HZ 3DOJUDYH 'LFWLRQDU\ RI (FRQRPLFV YRO , SS  UH


3DOJUDYH 'LFWLRQDU\ RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\  
&   -%   7KH 'LVWULEXWLRQ RI ,QFRPH 0DFPLOODQ 1HZ <RUN
&  &: DQG 3+ '     $ WKHRU\ RI SURGXFWLRQ 7KH $PHULFDQ
(FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ YRO  6XSSOHPHQW 0DUFK SS 
'   *  7KHRU\ RI 9DOXH &RZOHV &RPPLVVLRQ 0RQRJUDSK QR  -RKQ
0LOJDWH HGV

SULQWHG IURP WKH RULJLQDO

:LOH\ 1HZ <RUN



'

(   &DSLWDO H[SDQVLRQ UDWH RI JURZWK DQG HPSOR\PHQW

WULFD YRO  SS 


'   3+   7KH 7KHRU\ RI :DJHV 0DFPLOODQ 1HZ <RUN

(FRQRPH

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ


 

&(  

7KH 1HRFODVVLFDO 7KHRU\ RI 3URGXFWLRQ DQG 'LVWULEXWLRQ &DP

EULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH

 )0   $JJUHJDWH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQV DQG WKH H[SODQDWLRQ RI ZDJHV

VLPXODWLRQ H[SHULPHQW

7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLFV DQG 6WDWLVWLFV YRO  SS 



  - .   &UHDWHG 8QHTXDO 7KH &ULVLV LQ $PHULFDQ 3D\ 7KH )UHH

3UHVV 1HZ <RUN

 



2 DQG - =

  ,QFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ DQG PDFURHFRQRPLFV

7KH 5H

*LXIIUq

0LODQR

YLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 


* 3   ,O FDSLWDOH QHOOH WHRULH GHOOD GLVWULEX]LRQH

,WDOLDQ YHUVLRQ RI D 3K' GLVVHUWDWLRQ VXEPLWWHG WR WKH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI &DPEULGJH


'HFHPEHU  



3   4XDQWLW\ RI FDSLWDO LQ - (DWZHOO 0 0LOJDWH 3 1HZPDQ

&DSLWDO 7KHRU\ HVVD\V IURP RU DV D FRPSOHWLRQ WR 7KH 1HZ 3DOJUDYH 'LFWLR
QDU\  0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ
HGV



3   6DYLQJV LQYHVWPHQW DQG FDSLWDO LQ D V\VWHP RI JHQHUDO LQ

&ULWLFDO (VVD\V RQ 3LHUR 6UDIIDV /HJ


DF\ LQ (FRQRPLFV &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH SS 
+ )+   (TXLOLEULXP G\QDPLFV ZLWK KHWHURJHQHRXV FDSLWDO JRRGV 7KH
4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 
+ )+   7KH 1HZ5LFDUGLDQV 7KH &DPEULGJH -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO
WHUWHPSRUDO HTXLOLEULXP LQ +' .XU] HG

 SS 

 

*+   6RPH &DPEULGJH FRQWURYHUVLHV LQ WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO

7KH -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF /LWHUDWXUH YRO  SS 


+  *+   6RPH &DPEULGJH &RQWURYHUV\ LQ WKH 7KHRU\ RI &DSLWDO
&DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH



5)   $Q HVVD\ LQ G\QDPLF WKHRU\

7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO YRO 

SS 

 5)   7RZDUGV D '\QDPLF (FRQRPLFV 0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ

  1   $OWHUQDWLYH WKHRULHV RI GLVWULEXWLRQ 7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF

6WXGLHV YRO  SS 

 

1   &DSLWDO DFFXPXODWLRQ DQG HFRQRPLF JURZWK LQ '& +DJXH

DQG )$ /XW] HGV

  

7KH 7KHRU\ RI &DSLWDO 0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ SS 

0   7KH GHWHUPLQDQWV RI GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH QDWLRQDO LQFRPH

QRPHWULFD YRO  SS 

(FR

   0   $ WKHRU\ RI SURILWV 7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO YRO  SS 



$3   :KRP RU ZKDW GRHV WKH UHSUHVHQWDWLYH LQGLYLGXDO UHSUHVHQW"

7KH -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLF 3HUVSHFWLYHV YRO  SS 


.  7$   7KH 6WUXFWXUH RI 6FLHQWLILF 5HYROXWLRQV QG HGQ 7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI
&KLFDJR 3UHVV &KLFDJR



+'   &DSLWDO WKHRU\ GHEDWHV LQ 3 1HZPDQ - (DWZHOO DQG 0

0LOJDWH HGV

7KH 1HZ 3DOJUDYH 'LFWLRQDU\ RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  0DFPLOODQ /RQ

GRQ SS 

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ






'   $ QRQVXEVWLWXWLRQ WKHRUHP DQG VZLWFKLQJ RI WHFKQLTXHV

4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 

7KH

:$   (FRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQW ZLWK XQOLPLWHG VXSSO\ RI ODERXU 7KH


0DQFKHVWHU 6FKRRO RI (FRQRPLF DQG 6RFLDO 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 
0   75   $Q ,QTXLU\ LQWR WKH 1DWXUH DQG 3URJUHVV RI 5HQW DQG WKH 3ULQFL
SOHV E\ ZKLFK LW LV 5HJXODWHG -RKQ 0XUUD\ /RQGRQ
0 -(   $ 1HR&ODVVLFDO 7KHRU\ RI (FRQRPLF *URZWK QG HGQ 8QZLQ




8QLYHUVLW\ %RRNV /RQGRQ

 '&   3XEOLF &KRLFH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH



9

 

&RXUV GpFRQRPLH SROLWLTXH

WRPH

VHFRQG

)

5RXJH

HGLWHXU

/DXVDQQH



//   $ PDWKHPDWLFDO IRUPXODWLRQ RI WKH 5LFDUGLDQ V\VWHP

5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 

 //  

5DWH RI SURILW DQG LQFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ UHODWLRQ WR WKH UDWH

RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK



7KH

7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 

//   &KDQJHV LQ WKH UDWH RI SURILWV DQG VZLWFKHV RI WHFKQLTXHV

4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 

 //  

U\

6ZLWFKHV RI WHFKQLTXH DQG WKH UDWH RI UHWXUQ LQ FDSLWDO WKHR

7KH (FRQRPLF -RXUQDO YRO  SS 



//   :LFNVHOO HIIHFWV DQG UHVZLWFKLQJ RI WHFKQLTXHV LQ FDSLWDO

7KH 6FDQGLQDYLDQ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 


3 //   6WUXFWXUDO &KDQJH DQG (FRQRPLF *URZWK $ WKHRUHWLFDO HVVD\
RQ WKH G\QDPLFV RI WKH ZHDOWK RI QDWLRQV &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DP
WKHRU\

EULGJH
5   ,QFRPH GLVWULEXWLRQ SROLWLFV DQG JURZWK 7KH $PHULFDQ (FR
QRPLF 5HYLHZ 3DSHUV DQG 3URFHHGLQJV YRO  QR  SS 





 

7 H * 7



  ,V LQHTXDOLW\ KDUPIXO IRU JURZWK" 7KHRU\ DQG

7KH $PHULFDQ (FRQRPLF 5HYLHZ YRO  SS 


4  &  $   5HQGLWD H GLVWULEX]LRQH LQ XQ PRGHOOR HFRQRPLFR SOXULVHW
WRULDOH *LXIIUq 0LODQR
4  &  $   5HQGLWD LQ (QFLFORSHGLD GHOOH 6FLHQ]H 6RFLDOL ,VWLWXWR
HYLGHQFH

GHOOD (QFLFORSHGLD ,WDOLDQD 5RPD YRO 9,, SS 

 )  

$ PDWKHPDWLFDO WKHRU\ RI VDYLQJ

(FRQRPLF -RXUQDO YRO  SS


'   $Q (VVD\ RQ WKH ,QIOXHQFH RI D /RZ 3ULFH RI &RUQ RQ WKH 3URILWV RI
6WRFN -RKQ 0XUUD\ /RQGRQ
5 ' >@   2Q WKH 3ULQFLSOHV RI 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ DQG 7D[DWLRQ YRO ,
RI 7KH :RUNV DQG &RUUHVSRQGHQFH RI 'DYLG 5LFDUGR HGLWHG E\ 3 6UDIID ZLWK WKH



FROODERUDWLRQ RI 0+ 'REE &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH


-9   7KH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ DQG WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO 7KH
5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 
5 -% -   )URP &DWDVWURSKH WR &KDRV $ *HQHUDO 7KHRU\ RI (FRQRPLF 'L
VFRQWLQXLWLHV .OXZHU 1RUZHOO 0DVV

 

%1/ 4XDUWHUO\ 5HYLHZ


  

3$   3DUDEOH DQG UHDOLVP LQ FDSLWDO WKHRU\ WKH VXUURJDWH SUR

GXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ

  

5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV SS 


(FRQRPLFV DQ ,QWURGXFWRU\ $QDO\VLV WK HGQ 0F*UDZ+LOO

3$  

&R 1HZ <RUN

   3$ HG D  3DUDGR[HV LQ FDSLWDO WKHRU\ D

V\PSRVLXP ZLWK FRQ

WULEXWLRQV E\ // 3DVLQHWWL ' /HYKDUL 0 0RULVKLPD 0 %UXQR ( %XUPHLV


WHU ( 6KHVKLQVNL 3 *DUHJQDQL 3$ 6DPXHOVRQ

QRPLFV YRO  SS 

7KH 4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FR

   3$ E  $ VXPPLQJ XS LQ 6DPXHOVRQ HG D  SS 



.   7KH QHRFODVVLFDO SRVWXODWH DQG WKH WHFKQRORJ\ IURQWLHU LQ FDSLWDO

WKHRU\

 

IROG

7KH 4XDUWHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 

%   &ODVVLFDO WKHRU\ DQG LQWHUWHPSRUDO HTXLOLEULXP LQ % 6FKH

1RUPDO 3ULFHV 7HFKQLFDO &KDQJH DQG $FFXPXODWLRQ

0DFPLOODQ /RQGRQ

SS 

 (   7KHRULH GHU 3URGXNWLRQ -XOLXV 6SULQJHU 9HUODJ :LHQ

  $   /DZV RI DOJHEUD DQG ODZV RI

SURGXFWLRQ WKH +XPEXJ SURGXFWLRQ

7KH 5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLFV DQG 6WDWLVWLFV YRO  SS 


>@   $Q ,QTXLU\ LQWR WKH 1DWXUH DQG &DXVHV RI WKH :HDOWK RI 1D

IXQFWLRQ



$

WLRQV HGLWHG E\ ( &DQQDQ YRO , 0HWKXHQ /RQGRQ

 


50   7KH SURGXFWLRQ IXQFWLRQ DQG WKH WKHRU\ RI FDSLWDO

 


50   $ FRQWULEXWLRQ WR WKH WKHRU\ RI HFRQRPLF JURZWK

5HYLHZ RI (FRQRPLF 6WXGLHV YRO  SS 

WHUO\ -RXUQDO RI (FRQRPLFV YRO  SS 


6 
 50   &DSLWDO 7KHRU\ DQG WKH 5DWH RI 5HWXUQ

7KH

7KH 4XDU

1RUWK+ROODQG

3XEOLVKLQJ &R $PVWHUGDP

 


50   7KH LQWHUHVW UDWH DQG WKH WUDQVLWLRQ EHWZHHQ WHFKQLTXHV LQ

6RFLDOLVP &DSLWDOLVP DQG (FRQRPLF *URZWK (VVD\V SUHVHQWHG


WR 0DXULFH 'REE &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH SS 
6 
 50   7KH /DERXU 0DUNHW DV D 6RFLDO ,QVWLWXWLRQ %DVLO %ODFNZHOO 2[
&+ )HLQVWHLQ HG

IRUG

 


50   7KH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKLV

5HYLHZ SS 


6 3   3URGXFWLRQ RI &RPPRGLWLHV E\ 0HDQV RI &RPPRGLWLHV

&DPEULGJH

8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH

 

-(   'LVWULEXWLRQ RI LQFRPH DQG ZHDOWK DPRQJ LQGLYLGXDOV

QRPHWULFD YRO  SS 



7:   (FRQRPLF JURZWK DQG FDSLWDO DFFXPXODWLRQ

FRUG YRO  SS 


6  /  3   6DJJLR VXOOH FODVVL VRFLDOL /DWHU]D %DUL
 

 

(FR

7KH (FRQRPLF 5H

3   :K\ WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI WKH &REE'RXJODV SURGXFWLRQ

IXQFWLRQ PXVW EH UDGLFDOO\ FKDQJHG

PLFV YRO  SS 

6WUXFWXUDO &KDQJH DQG (FRQRPLF '\QD

&ULWLTXH RI WKH QHRFODVVLFDO WKHRU\ RI JURZWK DQG GLVWULEXWLRQ



/&   *HQHUDWLQJ ,QHTXDOLW\ 0HFKDQLVP RI 'LVWULEXWLRQ LQ WKH 86


(FRQRP\ %DVLF %RRNV ,QF 1HZ <RUN
7 5   $Q (VVD\ RQ WKH ([WHUQDO &RUQ 7UDGH - +DWFKDUG /RQGRQ
: (   (VVD\ RQ WKH $SSOLFDWLRQ RI &DSLWDO WR /DQG 7 8QGHUZRRG /RQGRQ
 . >@   /HFWXUHV RQ 3ROLWLFDO (FRQRP\ YRO , 5RXWOHGJH DQG .H
: 
JDQ 3DXO /WG /RQGRQ RULJLQDO HGLWLRQ )|UHOlVQLQJDU L 1DWLRQDOHFRQRPL , %HU

 


OLQJVND %RNWU\FKHULHW /XQG 

 

 .   5HDO FDSLWDO DQG LQWHUHVW

(NRQRPLVN 7LGVNULIW

QRV  UH

SULQWHG DV $SSHQGL[  LQ . :LFNVHOO  SS 

 $   $ 7KHRU\ RI 3D\ &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\ 3UHVV &DPEULGJH

Você também pode gostar