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Daniela Rossini (1649649) Class 17; Giorgi Kolbaia (1651397) Class 17; Luca
Beisans (1675347) Class 17; Maxence de Poulpiquet (1646504) Class 17
Executive Summary
Given the current and expected market conditions, the financial department of the Ocean
Carriers Group is to evaluate the potential revenues and expenses of commissioning a new
capsize ship for cargo transportation in order to meet a received demand for lease. A
recommended approach would consist in analyzing the expectations for the world economy,
trends in world trade and potential contracts; however, an estimated time of service should be
assigned in order to predict future cash flows.
Summary of facts
In January 2001, Mary Linn, vice president of Finance for Ocean Carriers, had to decide
whether to accept an offered leasing contract for the duration of three years. In the event of
acceptance of the above-mentioned contract, the profits of the company would depend on the
agreed hire rates, operating costs, ship depreciation and inflation. After the closure of the
contract, further income would be evaluated based on expected market daily hire rates. The
conditions for the proposed lease are shown in exhibit 1.
Statement of problem
The duration of the leasing contract is quite short so the company has to analyze whether the
investment as a whole will prove to be profitable even after the closure of the contract. In
order to do so, they will have to take into account the fluctuations of the daily spot rates in the
short and long terms, as well as existing differences in taxation policies within its offices in
Hong Kong and in the United States. Last but not least, the company has to question the
tenability of its 15-year policy.
Analysis
Spot hire rates
Daily spot hire rates are predicted to fall in 2001 and 2002 due to an increase in the fleet size
(63 new vessels are scheduled for delivery) and expected stagnation in iron ore and coal
shipments. Iron ore and coal imports are very important for the company because they are
about 85% of the cargo it carries every year. Therefore, due to this future stagnation the
company will face a weak market position, resulting in lower daily spot hire rates.
Overall investment
Despite negative market conditions in the upcoming 2 years, long-term prospects look much
more promising. Iron ore vessel shipments are going to increase due to new players joining
the iron ore industry: India and Australia. As a consequence, in this new global market, daily
charter rates and spot daily charter rates will probably rise producing additional demand for
shipments.
Investment decision
We computed two separate calculations for given two assumptions in Exhibit 2. According to
assumption A the company operates in United States, thus has to pay 35% of taxes, whilst
according to assumption B, company operates in Hong Kong, and its exempt of taxes. Our
calculations show that NPV in the first scenario is negative in both 2017 (-6,350,239) and
2027 (- 4,285,462) due to very high taxes, while in the second scenario the NPV is positive in
both 2017 (1,719,018) and 2027 (4,025,600).
Its important to understand why we presented two columns for 2017. First column shows the
numbers in the case of operating a vessel for 15 years, whilst second column shows the
values in case ship was to be operated for a longer period. Another important fact to consider
is that in the first scenario, when the company operates ship only for 15 years, we excluded
the capital expenditure for 2017 related to the survey, Whilst, in the second scenario, while
operating the ship for more than 15 years, we added the yearly capital expenditure back.
We made an important assumption; we did not include capital expenditures linked to the last
special survey, because we assumed that the company is scrapping the ship just before the
special survey is conducted.
Recommendations
In conclusion, keeping in mind what we demonstrated before, the company should invest in
the production of the new vessel only in Hong Kong and should not scrap it after 15 years,
because its NPV will still be positive.
22.44
Exhibit 2
Year
2000
Event year
2001
2002
1
2003
2004
Age of ship
Capital investment
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2017
2026
2027
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
17
26
27
10
11
12
13
14
15
15
24
25
$ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $ 1,560,000 $
1,560,000 $
1,560,000 $
1,560,000 $
1,560,000
Accumulated Dempreciation
$ 1,560,000 $ 3,120,000 $ 4,680,000 $ 6,240,000 $ 7,800,000 $ 9,360,000 $ 10,920,000 $ 12,480,000 $ 14,040,000 $ 15,600,000 $ 17,160,000 $ 18,720,000 $ 20,280,000 $ 21,840,000 $ 23,400,000 $
23,400,000 $
37,440,000 $
39,000,000
$ 37,440,000 $ 35,880,000 $ 34,320,000 $ 32,760,000 $ 31,200,000 $ 29,640,000 $ 28,080,000 $ 26,520,000 $ 24,960,000 $ 23,400,000 $ 21,840,000 $ 20,280,000 $ 18,720,000 $ 17,160,000 $ 15,600,000 $
Working Capital
15,600,000 $
1,560,000 $
546,364 $
562,754 $
579,637 $
597,026 $
614,937 $
633,385 $
652,387 $
671,958 $
692,117 $
712,880 $
734,267 $
756,295 $
756,295 $
986,793 $
Capital Expenditure
60,000 $
60,000 $
60,000 $
60,000 $
60,000 $
70,000 $
70,000 $
70,000 $
70,000 $
70,000 $
150,000 $
170,000
60,000 $
120,000 $
180,000 $
240,000 $
300,000 $
370,000 $
440,000 $
510,000 $
580,000 $
650,000 $
500,000 $
515,000 $
530,450 $
650,000 $
800,000 $
2,250,000 $
$ 37,940,000 $ 36,395,000 $ 34,850,450 $ 33,306,364 $ 31,702,754 $ 30,099,637 $ 28,497,026 $ 26,894,937 $ 25,293,385 $ 23,682,387 $ 22,071,958 $ 20,462,117 $ 18,852,880 $ 17,244,267 $ 15,706,295 $
15,556,295 $
296,793 $
20,000 $
20,200 $
20,400 $
18,714 $
17,283 $
17,481 $
17,682 $
17,886 $
18,092 $
17,428 $
17,628 $
17,831 $
18,036 $
18,243 $
14,762 $
14,762 $
15,341 $
13,448
4,000 $
4,160 $
4,326 $
4,499 $
4,679 $
4,867 $
5,061 $
5,264 $
5,474 $
5,693 $
5,921 $
6,158 $
6,404 $
6,660 $
6,927 $
6,927 $
9,859 $
10,253
12
12
12
12
12
16
16
16
16
16
16
16
Maintenance days
16
Operating revenue
$ 7,140,000 $ 7,211,400 $ 7,282,800 $ 6,680,898 $ 6,170,031 $ 6,170,793 $ 6,241,746 $ 6,313,758 $ 6,386,476 $ 6,152,084 $ 6,152,172 $ 6,223,019 $ 6,294,564 $ 6,366,807 $
5,151,938 $
5,151,938 $
5,354,009 $
Operating costs
$ 1,460,000 $ 1,518,400 $ 1,579,136 $ 1,642,301 $ 1,707,993 $ 1,776,313 $ 1,847,366 $ 1,921,260 $ 1,998,111 $ 2,078,035 $ 2,161,157 $ 2,247,603 $ 2,337,507 $ 2,431,007 $
2,528,248 $
2,528,355 $
3,598,485 $ 3,742,424.08
Pre-tax earnings 2
$ 4,120,000 $ 4,133,000 $ 4,143,664 $ 3,478,597 $ 2,842,038 $ 2,774,480 $ 2,774,380 $ 2,772,498 $ 2,768,365 $ 2,444,049 $ 2,361,015 $ 2,345,416 $ 2,327,057 $ 2,305,800 $
1,063,690 $
913,583 $
25,524 $
(609,072)
807,030 $
372,292 $
319,754 $
8,934 $
(213,175)
After-tax earnings
$ 2,678,000 $ 2,686,450 $ 2,693,382 $ 2,261,088 $ 1,847,324 $ 1,803,412 $ 1,803,347 $ 1,802,123 $ 1,799,437 $ 1,588,632 $ 1,534,660 $ 1,524,520 $ 1,512,587 $ 1,498,770 $
691,399 $
593,829 $
16,591 $
(395,897)
5,000,000
994,713 $
971,068 $
971,033 $
970,374 $
968,928 $
855,417 $
826,355 $
820,896 $
814,470 $
4,693,352
Assumption A : USA
Capital investment and scraping
(500,000) $
(15,000) $
(15,450) $
(15,914) $
(21,386) $
734,267 $
(22,028) $
(29,604) $
986,793
Operating revenue
$ 7,140,000 $ 7,211,400 $ 7,282,800 $ 6,680,898 $ 6,170,031 $ 6,170,793 $ 6,241,746 $ 6,313,758 $ 6,386,476 $ 6,152,084 $ 6,152,172 $ 6,223,019 $ 6,294,564 $ 6,366,807 $
5,151,938 $
5,151,938 $
5,354,009 $
4,693,352
Operating costs
$ 1,460,000 $ 1,518,400 $ 1,579,136 $ 1,642,301 $ 1,707,993 $ 1,776,313 $ 1,847,366 $ 1,921,260 $ 1,998,111 $ 2,078,035 $ 2,161,157 $ 2,247,603 $ 2,337,507 $ 2,431,007 $
2,528,248 $
2,528,355 $
3,598,485 $
3,742,424
(16,883) $
(17,389) $
(17,911) $
(18,448) $
300,000
994,713 $
971,068 $
971,033 $
970,374 $
968,928 $
(19,002) $
(19,572) $
(20,159) $
(20,764) $
Capital expenditure
(16,391) $
5,000,000 $
350,000
855,417 $
826,355 $
820,896 $
814,470 $
750,000 $
807,030 $
372,292 $
319,754 $
8,934 $
(213,175)
$ 4,238,000 $ 4,246,450 $ 4,253,382 $ 3,821,088 $ 3,167,324 $ 3,423,412 $ 3,423,347 $ 3,422,123 $ 3,419,437 $ 2,868,632 $ 3,164,660 $ 3,154,520 $ 3,142,587 $ 3,128,770 $
2,251,399 $
1,553,829 $
1,746,591 $
1,164,103
$ (3,900,000) $ (3,900,000) $ (27,462,000) $ 4,231,450 $ 4,237,932 $ 3,805,174 $ 3,150,933 $ 3,406,529 $ 3,405,958 $ 3,404,212 $ 3,400,989 $ 2,849,630 $ 3,145,088 $ 3,134,361 $ 3,121,823 $ 3,107,384 $
7,985,666 $
1,531,801 $
1,716,987 $
7,150,896
$ (3,900,000) $ (3,577,982) $ (23,114,216) $ 3,267,456 $ 3,002,258 $ 2,473,102 $ 1,878,799 $ 1,863,488 $ 1,709,336 $ 1,567,394 $ 1,436,615 $ 1,104,325 $ 1,118,188 $ 1,022,362 $
2,011,348 $
385,814 $
199,115 $
760,802
$ (6,350,239) $
(7,975,773) $
(5,046,134) $
(4,285,462)
934,195 $
853,095 $
5.3438%
5,000,000 $
5,000,000
(21,386) $
734,267 $
(22,028) $
(29,604) $
986,793
Operating revenue
$ 7,140,000 $ 7,211,400 $ 7,282,800 $ 6,680,898 $ 6,170,031 $ 6,170,793 $ 6,241,746 $ 6,313,758 $ 6,386,476 $ 6,152,084 $ 6,152,172 $ 6,223,019 $ 6,294,564 $ 6,366,807 $
5,151,938 $
5,151,938 $
5,354,009 $
4,693,352
Operating costs
$ 1,460,000 $ 1,518,400 $ 1,579,136 $ 1,642,301 $ 1,707,993 $ 1,776,313 $ 1,847,366 $ 1,921,260 $ 1,998,111 $ 2,078,035 $ 2,161,157 $ 2,247,603 $ 2,337,507 $ 2,431,007 $
2,528,248 $
2,528,355 $
3,598,485 $
3,742,424
(500,000) $
(15,000) $
(15,450) $
(15,914) $
Capital expenditure
Tax expense (35%)
Operating cash flow
$
$
(16,391) $
(16,883) $
(17,389) $
(17,911) $
(18,448) $
300,000
-
$
$
(19,002) $
(19,572) $
(20,159) $
(20,764) $
350,000
-
750,000 $
$ 5,680,000 $ 5,693,000 $ 5,703,664 $ 5,038,597 $ 4,162,038 $ 4,394,480 $ 4,394,380 $ 4,392,498 $ 4,388,365 $ 3,724,049 $ 3,991,015 $ 3,975,416 $ 3,957,057 $ 3,935,800 $
2,623,690 $
1,873,583 $
1,755,524 $
950,928
$ (3,900,000) $ (3,900,000) $ (26,020,000) $ 5,678,000 $ 5,688,214 $ 5,022,683 $ 4,145,647 $ 4,377,597 $ 4,376,991 $ 4,374,587 $ 4,369,917 $ 3,705,047 $ 3,971,443 $ 3,955,257 $ 3,936,293 $ 3,914,414 $
8,357,957 $
1,851,555 $
1,725,921 $
6,937,721
$ (3,900,000) $ (3,577,982) $ (21,900,513) $ 4,384,458 $ 4,029,674 $ 3,264,399 $ 2,471,914 $ 2,394,695 $ 2,196,664 $ 2,014,181 $ 1,845,900 $ 1,435,827 $ 1,411,986 $ 1,290,120 $ 1,177,922 $ 1,074,655 $
2,105,117 $
466,351 $
200,151 $
738,122
1,719,018 $
82,252 $
3,285,700 $
4,025,600
9.9944%
1.
2.