TOURISM FLOWS OUTBOUND IN

THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

Euromonitor International
October 2013

T OURI S M F L OWS OUT B OU ND I N T HE UNI T E D A RA B E MI RA T E S P a s s p o r t I
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LIST OF CONTENTS AND TABLES

Headlines ..................................................................................................................................... 1
Trends .......................................................................................................................................... 1
Destinations .................................................................................................................................. 2
Business Vs Leisure ..................................................................................................................... 2
Prospects ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Category Data .............................................................................................................................. 4
Table 1 Departures by Destination 2007-2012 .......................................................... 4
Table 2 Departures by Mode of Transport 2007-2012 .............................................. 4
Table 3 Departures by Purpose of Visit 2007-2012 ................................................... 4
Table 4 Business Departures: MICE Penetration % Breakdown 2007-2012 ............. 5
Table 5 Leisure Departures by Type 2007-2012 ....................................................... 5
Table 6 Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Geography: Value 2007-2012 .................. 5
Table 7 Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Category: Value 2007-2012 ..................... 6
Table 8 Method of Payments for Outgoing Tourism Spending: % Breakdown
2007-2012 .................................................................................................... 6
Table 9 Forecast Departures by Destination 2012-2017 ........................................... 6
Table 10 Forecast Departures by Mode of Transport 2012-2017................................ 7
Table 11 Forecast Departures by Purpose of Visit 2012-2017 .................................... 7
Table 12 Forecast Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Geography: Value 2012-
2017 ............................................................................................................. 7


T OURI S M F L OWS OUT B OU ND I N T HE UNI T E D A RA B E MI RA T E S P a s s p o r t 1
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TOURISM FLOWS OUTBOUND IN THE
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES


HEADLINES
Number of trips increases by 9% and outgoing tourist expenditure rises by 2% to reach 5.3
million and AED28.7 billion in 2012
Leisure and business departures alike benefit from growing economic confidence in the
country
Spend per trip decreases by 5% in current value terms in 2012 over the previous year
Number of trips expected to rise at a CAGR of 10% but just a 2% constant value CAGR
expected for outgoing tourist expenditure expected for forecast period


TRENDS
Helped by stronger economic conditions, rising disposable incomes and further population
growth outbound departures recorded a strong rise of 9% in volume in 2012. More low- to
middle-income expatriate consumers for example increasingly embarked on trips back home,
not least because of the widening offer of low-cost airlines such as Flydubai and Air Arabia.
Business departures also picked up due to renewed investments in the country and closer
international ties between companies. Finally, sea departures gained in importance towards
the end of the review period as cruises have become a popular type of holiday in the United
Arab Emirates.
The rise in departures in 2012 was therefore slightly faster than the review period CAGR of
8%. Nonetheless, growth rates during the review period were characterised by high volatility.
Following on from high growth in 2008, tourism outbound flows collapsed in 2009 as a result
of the economic crisis as many expatriates left the country whilst other consumers restrained
their spending.
Due to the high number of expatriates in the country, nearly all residents in the United Arab
Emirates engage in international travel. However, whilst lower-income consumers will save up
their money for a trip back to their home country, consumers with higher income travel
sometimes even several times a year, in order to visit friends or family back home but also to
explore other countries.
Still, the higher percentage of lower-income consumers travelling towards the end of the
review period resulted in growth in outgoing tourist expenditure to significantly lag behind the
rise in the number of outbound departures. In addition, tour operators also offered more
promotions in order to incentivise consumers in the United Arab Emirates to embark on more
trips.
Air accounted for more than half of overall departures in 2012 and recorded considerable
growth with a 9% rise in departures over the previous year. Growth in air departures was
supported by ongoing expansion in route networks by various airlines, including Emirates and
Etihad but also Flydubai and Air Arabia. Land travel posted the fastest growth, helped by a
higher number of leisure land departures since more UAE residents embarked on trips to
neighbouring countries.
Finally, sea departures also account for a significant (44%) share of outbound tourism and
witnessed 9% growth in 2012. Dubai is not only an increasingly popular port for many cruises,
but it also serves as a home port for leading cruise lines such as Costa Cruises, Aida Cruises,
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Royal Caribbean International, TUI Cruises and FTI Cruises. These companies became
increasingly active in promoting their tours to UAE residents towards the end of the review
period.


DESTINATIONS
Saudi Arabia not only accounted for 29% of overall departures in 2012, but also recorded the
fastest growth with a rise of 15% in the number of trips over the previous year. This is due to
the popularity of religious tourism to the country, particularly during the Hajj season of
September and November, whilst many visit Mecca or Medina throughout the year.
Departures to the country were also boosted by the construction of the Mafraq-Ghweifat
motorway in 2012, with this linking Abu Dhabi to the Saudi Arabian border. The three-lane
327-kilometre motorway is lit and encouraged more consumers to travel by road between the
United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
In addition, Saudi Arabia is a significant destination for business travellers, accounting for the
majority of business departures from the United Arab Emirates. Strong growth in departures
to the country was also supported by close economic links between the two countries and a
rise in investments and business activities in 2012.
Departures to South Africa, Turkey, and Germany also saw above average growth in 2012,
each witnessing double-digit increases over 2011. Stronger growth rates were partly due to
expansion in flight capacity to these countries. However, trade links with South Africa and
Germany boosted business departures to these countries, whilst Turkey benefited from
ongoing investment from its tourist board in attracting Middle Eastern tourists. Marketing
focusing on Turkeys Islamic, historical and cultural heritage continued to prove popular
amongst residents in the United Arab Emirates in 2012.
Egypt and Lebanon accounted for the highest share of outgoing tourist expenditure in 2012,
with 15% and 10% of the total, respectively. This is mostly due to the fact that luxury travel is
popular to these countries, with Egypts Sharm el Sheikh and Nile cruises, for example,
proving popular attractions. Casinos and high-priced nightclubs in these countries also hold a
strong appeal for many travellers from the United Arab Emirates.
Credit card is the dominant method of outgoing tourist expenditure, accounting for 52% share
of the total and gaining a further percentage point in share in 2012 over the previous year.
This came largely at the expense of prepaid cards, which lost a percentage point in share to
account for 7% in 2012, with more lower-income consumers qualifying for credit rather than
prepaid cards. Debit cards remained stable in second place with a 25% value share in the
year. Cash accounted for just a 5% share towards the end of the review period, with the
majority of travellers preferring card payment methods as these are perceived to be safer and
more convenient.


BUSINESS VS LEISURE
Business and leisure departures progressed at the same rate in 2012 with an increase of 9%
each over the previous year. Even though business departures took longer to recover from
the economic crisis, both leisure and business departures benefited from improved economic
conditions towards the end of the review period, as business activities picked up and
consumers had more money to spend on international travel.
Leisure departures dominate, accounting for 84% of overall outbound trips and 82% of
outgoing tourist expenditure in 2012. One reason is the countrys very high percentage of
expatriates, standing at 88% in 2012. Many of them visit their home countries and families in
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the year. Moreover, high income levels amongst many Emirati households allow them to take
holidays on a frequent basis.
Families account for the largest share of leisure departures from the United Arab Emirates,
with a trip volume share of 24% in 2012. Whilst this group is largely accounted for by Emirati
families, which typically travel together, middle- to high-income consumers also tend to take
their families with them to the United Arab Emirates and return home for the summer to their
home countries. However, group holidays is also popular with 15% of outbound departures as
many Emirati residents like to rely on organised trips to visit other countries.
Whilst sea and land departures are significant within leisure departures, being a convenient
way for families to travel, air departures dominate in business departures, accounting for a
share of 94% in 2012. For most business travellers, time is precious and they are thus keen to
travel by the swiftest manner possible. In addition, for most international business trips it is not
feasible to drive.
MICE business travel is less important for outbound tourism than it is for inbound flows.
Nonetheless, MICE departures comprised 38% of overall business departures in 2012, down
only slightly from the previous year. Business travel towards the end of the review period was
mostly boosted by company meetings rather than conferences and events.


PROSPECTS
Outbound tourism will be boosted by several factors over the review period. Further
population growth will result in a higher consumer base, with a rise in expatriate residents in
particular leading to more consumers wanting to explore the region from the United Arab
Emirates as a base as well as taking trips back to their home countries. Rising disposable
incomes will meanwhile enable both expatriate and Emirati residents to spend more on trips
abroad.
The ongoing development of the countrys leading airports, chiefly Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as
well as the route expansion of Emirates and Etihad will lead to an ever-increasing offer of
flights for UAE consumers. The entry of new affordable airlines is also expected to drive
growth, with 2012, for example, seeing the entry of low-cost carrier MMA Airline.
Whilst Dubais airport is seeing ongoing investments and improvements already, Al Maktoum
International Airport in Dubai World Central is due to open at the end of 2013. This will result
in the Hungarian budget airline Wizzair commencing operations. The airport, which has been
handling cargo flights since June 2010, is expected to ultimately comprise five runways and to
have capacity to move 160 million passengers per year.
Abu Dhabi International Airport meanwhile is expected to see the completion of the first phase
of its Midfield Terminal Complex by the end of the review period, increasing the airports
capacity from 12 million passengers per annum to 20 million.
Therefore, outbound tourism is predicted to see even stronger growth over the forecast
period, with an expected rise in the number of trips at a CAGR of 10% in comparison to a
review period CAGR of 8%. Growth during the review period was significantly hampered by
the poor economic conditions and the resulting exodus of many expatriate consumers. Thus,
a renewed economic downturn, even on a global basis, remains the largest threat to growth
over the forecast period.
Amongst destinations, Turkey is expected to see the fastest growth during the forecast period,
with an expected 14% CAGR in departure numbers during the forecast period, followed by
South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Turkey is keen to boost Islamic tourism and is thus likely to
continue to target the United Arab Emirates with attractive marketing campaigns emphasising
its Islamic heritage. Consumers in turn will likely be attracted to Turkey by its low prices.
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CATEGORY DATA

Table 1 Departures by Destination 2007-2012

'000 trips
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bahrain 18.1 17.5 16.6 17.0 16.7 17.1
Egypt 50.2 57.8 69.5 75.6 74.1 76.1
France 16.3 17.0 17.7 17.9 18.2 18.7
Germany 101.8 110.4 102.4 118.7 134.0 148.1
India 30.5 31.6 32.8 33.9 35.8 38.0
Iran 12.3 11.7 11.2 11.6 12.0 12.5
Jordan 15.6 16.1 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.5
Kuwait 18.3 17.7 17.1 17.6 17.8 18.2
Lebanon 250.9 253.0 295.6 323.2 342.6 365.8
Malaysia 60.0 70.6 73.5 82.2 87.7 93.9
Oman 232.7 320.7 302.3 312.3 326.7 345.7
Pakistan 22.8 22.7 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.8
Qatar 23.5 23.9 22.6 23.3 24.4 25.6
Saudi Arabia 955.0 1,617.2 1,000.0 1,256.5 1,419.8 1,625.7
Singapore 29.1 29.7 30.5 31.5 32.6 34.1
South Africa 11.7 12.5 13.4 15.5 17.5 19.9
Thailand 48.9 60.6 57.7 61.1 64.9 69.3
Turkey 14.6 14.7 14.6 28.8 32.0 35.9
United Kingdom 165.6 172.6 170.3 178.5 187.2 197.4
USA 25.3 25.5 24.2 25.3 26.6 28.2
Other Destinations 1,494.9 1,581.1 1,631.2 1,788.7 1,913.9 2,052.5
Departures 3,598.0 4,484.4 3,942.5 4,459.0 4,824.9 5,264.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources


Table 2 Departures by Mode of Transport 2007-2012

'000 trips
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Air 3,300.3 4,103.3 3,613.1 2,327.9 2,508.1 2,737.4
Land 253.5 332.1 276.9 169.8 185.4 204.8
Rail - - - - - -
Sea 44.2 49.1 52.4 1,961.4 2,131.5 2,321.8
Departures 3,598.0 4,484.4 3,942.5 4,459.0 4,824.9 5,264.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources


Table 3 Departures by Purpose of Visit 2007-2012

'000 trips
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Business 1,014.0 1,256.1 1,090.4 702.9 753.6 822.4
Leisure 2,584.0 3,228.3 2,852.1 3,756.1 4,071.3 4,441.6
Departures 3,598.0 4,484.4 3,942.5 4,459.0 4,824.9 5,264.0
T OURI S M F L OWS OUT B OU ND I N T HE UNI T E D A RA B E MI RA T E S P a s s p o r t 5
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Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources


Table 4 Business Departures: MICE Penetration % Breakdown 2007-2012

'000 trips
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

MICE 379.5 505.2 436.9 281.2 293.9 316.6
Other Business Travel 634.5 750.9 653.4 421.8 459.7 505.7
Total 1,014.0 1,256.1 1,090.4 702.9 753.6 822.4
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
Note: MICE refers to meetings, incentives, conventions, exhibitions


Table 5 Leisure Departures by Type 2007-2012

% number of trips
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Singles 11.4 12.2 13.2 14.0 14.3 14.5
Couples 11.8 11.9 11.8 12.5 12.9 13.1
Families 21.7 21.8 21.5 22.0 23.0 24.0
Group 15.8 15.3 14.8 14.3 14.1 14.9
Others 39.3 38.9 38.7 37.2 35.8 33.5
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources


Table 6 Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Geography: Value 2007-2012

AED million
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Bahrain 335.3 422.9 381.3 386.1 393.5 405.1
Egypt 2,581.0 3,592.7 3,913.3 3,988.6 4,085.1 4,231.4
France 333.8 420.6 377.9 382.8 391.0 402.2
Germany 1,242.8 1,625.5 1,462.8 1,486.0 1,519.3 1,570.3
India 769.5 978.7 802.0 814.6 830.6 826.2
Iran 236.6 294.7 247.1 250.1 255.5 263.0
Jordan 300.4 378.1 369.9 376.9 386.6 401.3
Kuwait 409.2 521.0 455.2 461.6 470.7 485.4
Lebanon 2,047.4 2,771.3 2,650.0 2,704.3 2,774.3 2,905.1
Malaysia 1,114.9 1,451.5 1,275.4 1,296.8 1,327.7 1,374.8
Oman 1,727.0 2,240.2 1,923.9 1,957.6 2,007.8 2,089.8
Pakistan 507.3 663.5 554.8 563.4 575.1 593.4
Qatar 522.4 667.6 557.7 566.1 577.9 595.7
Saudi Arabia 1,596.9 2,067.6 1,740.7 1,792.0 1,841.2 1,909.0
Singapore 717.9 928.6 882.2 901.4 938.7 978.9
South Africa 233.5 294.5 263.8 267.2 272.4 280.2
Thailand 369.7 483.5 460.9 469.5 480.7 498.9
Turkey 285.1 359.5 354.3 361.4 371.6 385.5
United Kingdom 1,428.1 1,854.1 1,596.0 1,617.2 1,653.8 1,706.0
USA 693.7 896.5 763.3 775.2 791.7 816.7
Other countries 4,189.6 5,304.0 5,681.7 5,733.1 5,825.5 5,987.9
Total 21,642.3 28,216.6 26,714.2 27,151.7 27,770.9 28,706.6
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Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources


Table 7 Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Category: Value 2007-2012

AED million
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Accommodation 5,275.6 6,878.0 6,411.4 6,503.3 6,614.4 6,787.8
Entertainment 2,949.4 3,845.3 3,472.8 3,541.2 3,623.0 3,748.0
Excursions 2,406.9 3,137.9 2,938.6 2,998.3 3,083.8 3,203.9
Food 3,586.2 4,676.0 4,541.4 4,601.0 4,701.0 4,859.5
Shopping 5,554.4 7,241.6 6,678.6 6,809.7 6,974.1 7,224.6
Travel Within Country 1,869.8 2,437.7 2,671.4 2,698.2 2,774.6 2,882.8
Other Outgoing Tourist - - - - - -
Expenditure
Outgoing Tourist 21,642.3 28,216.6 26,714.2 27,151.7 27,770.9 28,706.6
Expenditure
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
Note 1: Entertainment includes attractions, theatres, guided city tours, etc
Note 2: Food includes restaurants
Note 3: Other outgoing tourist expenditure includes travel agent services


Table 8 Method of Payments for Outgoing Tourism Spending: % Breakdown 2007-
2012

% value
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cash 6.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 4.9 4.8
Credit Card 49.0 50.0 49.0 50.5 51.0 52.0
Charge Card 5.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 7.1 7.2
Debit Card 24.0 25.0 24.0 24.5 25.0 25.0
Traveller's Cheques 6.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0
Prepaid Cards 10.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.0 7.0
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
trade interviews, trade sources
Note 1: Direct purchases only
Note 2: Table represents method used at time of purchase


Table 9 Forecast Departures by Destination 2012-2017

'000 trips
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bahrain 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.4
Egypt 76.1 78.3 80.7 83.8 87.0 90.6
France 18.7 19.3 20.0 20.8 21.6 22.7
Germany 148.1 162.5 175.6 187.9 200.3 216.0
India 38.0 40.1 42.8 46.2 50.0 54.3
Iran 12.5 13.0 13.7 14.5 15.3 16.3
Jordan 17.5 18.2 18.9 19.7 21.0 22.4
Kuwait 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.5 21.6 22.9
Lebanon 365.8 391.1 419.6 452.7 493.9 543.7
Malaysia 93.9 99.3 104.5 109.6 115.5 122.4
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Oman 345.7 366.8 388.1 409.3 430.3 450.9
Pakistan 23.8 24.8 25.9 26.8 27.6 28.4
Qatar 25.6 26.9 28.4 30.0 31.8 33.7
Saudi Arabia 1,625.7 1,875.3 2,134.1 2,406.4 2,681.4 2,955.7
Singapore 34.1 35.8 37.6 39.7 41.6 43.5
South Africa 19.9 22.7 25.9 29.3 33.4 37.6
Thailand 69.3 74.3 79.9 85.4 90.9 96.6
Turkey 35.9 40.8 46.5 53.5 60.9 68.7
United Kingdom 197.4 209.2 222.5 237.4 254.8 274.3
USA 28.2 29.9 31.6 33.3 35.0 36.7
Other Destinations 2,052.5 2,226.9 2,427.1 2,648.3 2,902.5 3,189.2
Departures 5,264.0 5,791.4 6,361.0 6,973.8 7,636.0 8,347.1
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources


Table 10 Forecast Departures by Mode of Transport 2012-2017

'000 trips
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Air 2,737.4 3,010.6 3,301.0 3,614.2 3,954.9 4,317.9
Land 204.8 227.6 253.2 281.4 312.3 346.4
Rail - - - - - -
Sea 2,321.8 2,553.2 2,806.8 3,078.1 3,368.8 3,682.7
Departures 5,264.0 5,791.4 6,361.0 6,973.8 7,636.0 8,347.1
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources


Table 11 Forecast Departures by Purpose of Visit 2012-2017

'000 trips
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Business 822.4 904.2 989.7 1,082.5 1,184.4 1,293.8
Leisure 4,441.6 4,887.2 5,371.3 5,891.3 6,451.6 7,053.3
Departures 5,264.0 5,791.4 6,361.0 6,973.8 7,636.0 8,347.1
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources


Table 12 Forecast Outgoing Tourist Expenditure by Geography: Value 2012-2017

AED million
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bahrain 405.1 410.8 419.6 428.6 432.1 436.5
Egypt 4,231.4 4,320.9 4,432.9 4,543.5 4,640.2 4,775.5
France 402.2 408.7 418.1 427.1 435.2 446.1
Germany 1,570.3 1,598.0 1,636.8 1,675.1 1,706.4 1,742.7
India 826.2 838.2 855.7 874.7 889.2 901.8
Iran 263.0 266.6 272.1 276.1 281.5 288.8
Jordan 401.3 411.0 422.3 434.7 444.6 455.7
Kuwait 485.4 492.6 504.4 515.7 522.9 532.7
Lebanon 2,905.1 2,967.4 3,063.2 3,138.5 3,206.2 3,292.8
Malaysia 1,374.8 1,400.7 1,438.4 1,466.8 1,493.5 1,508.4
Oman 2,089.8 2,140.0 2,206.0 2,267.2 2,315.4 2,378.1
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Pakistan 593.4 603.7 618.6 632.3 641.9 657.9
Qatar 595.7 605.5 620.4 633.8 645.0 664.3
Saudi Arabia 1,909.0 1,952.9 2,008.1 2,061.6 2,110.3 2,166.3
Singapore 978.9 1,008.6 1,037.0 1,067.6 1,089.6 1,120.1
South Africa 280.2 285.6 291.0 296.1 300.6 304.9
Thailand 498.9 509.6 523.0 536.6 547.9 561.6
Turkey 385.5 393.2 404.3 414.5 424.3 439.7
United Kingdom 1,706.0 1,741.2 1,786.1 1,727.2 1,703.3 1,733.0
USA 816.7 831.4 851.5 871.0 889.2 914.7
Other countries 5,987.9 6,048.4 6,162.6 6,390.4 6,591.2 6,771.7
Total 28,706.6 29,235.1 29,972.3 30,678.9 31,310.7 32,093.4
Source: Euromonitor International from trade associations, trade press, company research, trade interviews,
trade sources