RETAIL RESEARCH

Sugar Stock Picks Technical

Stock CMP Recommended Action Sequential Targets Stop Loss Time Horizon
Bajaj Hind 28.05 Accumulate between 28.05 to 20.0 68 and 122 17.0 6-18 months
Dhampur Sugar 55.25 Accumulate between 55.25 to 45.0 85 and 108 40.0 6-18 months
Renuka Sugar 25.75 Accumulate between 25.75 to 23.0 38 and 59 21 6-18 months
EID Parry 203.75 Accumulate between 203.75 to 170 289 160 6-18 months
Balrampur Chini 77.15 Accumulate between 77.15 to 60 128 and 168 55 6-18 months

Internati onal Sugar On a new l ong term uptrend
International sugar has been on a long term uptrend since 2004. However, while the trend has been up, there were several bear phases
in the last ten years that saw violent corrections.
International sugar has entered into a new intermediate uptrend by finding support at the ten year old trend line in J an 2014 at around the
$15 levels and moving up smartly in the last few months. The sugar prices have also formed a higher bottom. This new uptrend is likely to
accelerate once the price moves above $19, which corresponds to the upper end of the downward sloping channel in which it is currently
trading within.
Momentum readings like the 14-month RSI too are not overbought, thereby lending support to the current long term uptrend. This also
augurs well for Indian sugar stocks as their profits could increase as international sugar prices go up.





RETAIL RESEARCH

Sugar Sector & Stock Picks Technical View
May 24, 2014

RETAIL RESEARCH
NCDEX Sugar Technical
NCDEX Sugar On a new i ntermedi ate uptrend
NCDEX Sugar too has entered into a new intermediate uptrend. The commodity has reversed its intermediate downtrend and broken out
of a downward sloping trend line in the process. Momentum readings like the 14-week RSI too are not overbought, thereby lending
support to the current intermediate uptrend.
The current weakness/correction could therefore provide a buying opportunity to accumulate more of this commodity and also sugar
stocks as the NCDEX prices may not fall much below the current levels and could reverse soon. The following pages highlight sugar
stocks investors could look at accumulating.



RETAIL RESEARCH
Bajaj Hindustan

Bajaj Hindustan has made a double bottom around the 11.85-12.0 levels, which has also acted as a major support in 2003.
This week, the stock has convincingly broken out of its recent highs and zoomed higher on the back of higher than average
volumes. This indicates significant accumulation has been happening in this counter.
Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals. The 14-week RSI has moved higher and is above its 9-week EMA.
The MACD indicator too is above its 9-day EMA and the Weekly ADX readings are in rising mode. At 33.13, the weekly ADX
readings are indicating that the current uptrend is not matured and there is more upside potential in the intermediate term.
We recommend an accumulate in the band of CMP of Rs.28.05 to 20.0. Stop loss can be placed at 17.0. Our intermediate
upside targets are at 68 and 122. Holding period is 10-24 months.
Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different
levels of entry, target and stop loss or not give the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their
designated dealers to check about this.




RETAIL RESEARCH
Dhampur Sugar

Dhampur Sugar has made a double bottom around the 27-28 levels during Nov 13 - Feb 14. The stock had also found support
around the same levels in Dec 2011 before rebounding strongly.
This week, the stock has convincingly broken out of its recent highs and zoomed higher on the back of higher than average
volumes. This indicates significant accumulation has been happening in this counter and the stock is ready to continue the next
leg of its intermediate uptrend.
Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals. The 14-week RSI has moved higher and is above its 9-week EMA.
The MACD indicator too is above its 9-day EMA and the Weekly ADX readings are in rising mode. At 29.76, the weekly ADX
readings are indicating that the current uptrend is not matured and there is more upside potential in the intermediate term.
We recommend an accumulate in the band of CMP of Rs.55.25 to 45. Stop loss can be placed at 40. Our intermediate upside
targets are at 85 and 108. Holding period 6-18 months.
Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different
levels of entry, target and stop loss or not give the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their
designated dealers to check about this.




RETAIL RESEARCH
Renuka Sugar

Renuka Sugar has made a double bottom around the 14.5-15.0 levels during J uly 13 Aug 13. The stock had also found
support around the same levels during Feb-March 2007 before rebounding strongly.
This week, the stock has convincingly broken out of its recent highs and zoomed higher on the back of higher than average
volumes. This indicates significant accumulation has been happening in this counter and the stock is ready to continue the next
leg of its intermediate uptrend.
We also observe that the stock has broken out of a downward sloping trend line that has held down the highs of the last few
years.
Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals. The 14-week RSI has moved higher and is above its 9-week EMA.
The MACD indicator too is above its 9-day EMA and the Weekly ADX readings are in rising mode. At 27.3, the weekly ADX
readings are indicating that the current uptrend is not matured and there is more upside potential in the intermediate term.
We recommend an accumulate in the band of CMP of Rs.25.75 to 23. Stop loss can be placed at 21. Our intermediate upside
targets are at 38 and 59. Holding period 6-18 months.

Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different levels of
entry, target and stop loss or not give the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their designated
dealers to check about this.


RETAIL RESEARCH
EID Parry

EID Parry has reversed the intermediate downtrend that the stock was in since 2011. This downtrend was reversed during Nov
2013 when the stock took out its previous intermediate highs of 150.
The stock then made a higher bottom around the 117 levels during Feb 2014.
Last week, the stock has convincingly broken out of its recent highs and zoomed higher on the back of higher than average
volumes. This indicates significant accumulation has been happening in this counter and the stock is ready to continue the next
leg of its intermediate uptrend.
Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals. The 14-week RSI has moved higher and is above its 9-week EMA.
The MACD indicator too is above its 9-day EMA and the Weekly ADX readings are in rising mode. At 25.67, the weekly ADX
readings are indicating that the current uptrend is not matured and there is more upside potential in the intermediate term.
We recommend an accumulate in the band of CMP of Rs.203.75 to 170. Stop loss can be placed at 160. Our intermediate
upside targets are at 289. Holding period 6-18 months.

Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different levels of
entry, target and stop loss or not give the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their designated
dealers to check about this.


RETAIL RESEARCH
Balrampur Chini

Balrampur Chini has reversed the intermediate downtrend that the stock was in since 2009. This downtrend was reversed during
March 2014 when the stock took out its previous intermediate highs of 52.
The stock in the process made a higher bottom around the 36 levels during Feb 2014. It also broke out of a downward sloping
trend line that has held down the highs of the stock of the last few years.
This week, the stock has convincingly broken out of a significant intermediate high of 74.55 to end the week at 77.15.
This weeks rise also came on the back of higher than average volumes. This indicates significant accumulation has been
happening in this counter and the stock is ready to continue the next leg of its intermediate uptrend.
Technical indicators are giving encouraging signals. The 14-week RSI has moved higher and is above its 9-week EMA.
The MACD indicator too is above its 9-day EMA and the Weekly ADX readings are in rising mode. At 32.83, the weekly ADX
readings are indicating that the current uptrend is not matured and there is more upside potential in the intermediate term.
We recommend an accumulate in the band of CMP of Rs.77.15 to 60. Stop loss can be placed at 55. Our intermediate upside
targets are at 128 and 168. Holding period 6-18 months.
Note: Once the market opens for trade, the analyst will review it and decide to give the call through an internal mail/SMS at the same or different levels of
entry, target and stop loss or not give the call at all or give a call in Futures/call/put. Clients could get in touch with the analyst through their designated
dealers to check about this.


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Analyst: Subash Gangadharan
HDFC securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building B, Alpha, Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opposite
Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400042, Fax: (022) 30753435
Di sclai mer: This document has been prepared by HDFC securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document
is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The
information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such.
We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform
investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for non- Institutional Clients only