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Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003

Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003

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Published by: i-people on Mar 28, 2008
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03/26/2013

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Source:author’s computations based on SD Vision scenario output.

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

20502000-50

Yearly %
change

WORLD

Energy intensity 106

J/$ - PPP12.455

11.553

9.318

7.974

6.696

5.850-1.50

Per capita energy 109

J/cap

68.00772.09679.33892.440102.983116.3821.08

Carbon intensity kg/$

206.475185.722141.677112.60180.52757.687-2.52

Per capita carbon t/cap

1.127

1.159

1.206

1.305

1.238

1.1480.04

OECD90

Energy intensity 106

J/$ - PPP10.466

9.970

7.805

6.824

5.852

5.288-1.36

Per capita energy 109

J/cap202.176206.388208.101213.649214.374226.0940.22

Carbon intensity kg/$

176.699159.904114.44688.28660.39843.832-2.75

Per capita carbon t/cap

3.413

3.310

3.051

2.764

2.212

1.874-1.19

REF

Energy intensity 106

J/$ - PPP24.22621.990

17.71413.824

9.919

7.993-2.19

Per capita energy 109

J/cap129.833130.134146.031180.424201.294217.9091.04

Carbon intensity kg/$

433.825377.717290.912214.922137.47994.778-3.00

Per capita carbon t/cap

2.325

2.235

2.398

2.805

2.790

2.5840.21

ASIA

Energy intensity 106

J/$ - PPP13.078

12.41310.044

8.443

6.835

5.964-1.56

Per capita energy 109

J/cap

33.18041.65452.41666.32975.73589.0902.00

Carbon intensity kg/$

227.204215.538169.198134.40892.15264.825-2.48

Per capita carbon t/cap

0.576

0.723

0.883

1.056

1.021

0.9681.04

ALM

Energy intensity of 106

J/$ - PPP13.17812.340

9.830

8.493

7.256

6.111-1.53

Per capita energy 109

J/cap

44.50348.57555.85170.37686.440100.8221.65

Carbon intensity kg/$

176.561164.751125.698103.75180.14056.602-2.25

Per capita carbon t/cap

0.596

0.649

0.714

0.860

0.955

0.9340.90

138

3.A Normative Scenario to 2050: the SD Vision Scenario

Trends in Asia show an energy-intensity reduction of about 1.56% per
annum over the period in the SD Vision scenario and a carbon-intensity
reduction of nearly 2.5% per annum. Income growth plays a major role in
the trends for both indicators, both directly and as a result of the
technological leapfrogging that could result from this economic growth.
Per capita energy consumption, as expected in increasingly affluent
societies going up the ramp of industrialisation, would increase at a yearly
rate of 2%. Per capita carbon emissions would go up too, but at half that
rate.

As for the rest of the world (Africa, Middle East and Latin America), the
rate of energy -intensity reduction would match the rate of Asia (1.53%
per annum) in this scenario. Similarly the rate of carbon-intensity reduction
would be about 2.25% per year. While the income growth experienced
by this macro-region would likely be less dramatic than in Asia, the
impact on per capita energy consumption would remain impressive
(1.65% increase per annum) and per capita carbon emissions would also
grow.

The SD Vision scenario has to a large extent been built on the assumption
of robust economic growth, especially in developing areas. But this growth
is also to some extent a condition for a rapid transition to a more energy
efficient and less carbon-intensive world. In other words, to be able to
achieve the targets set for this scenario, energy and environmental policies
must be designed in such a way that the world economy remains vibrant.
These policies, however, must also ensure that technological progress (rather
than intensive resource use) remains at the heart of economic growth.

The picture described by the SD Vision scenario is certainly much less
reliant on carbon -based fuels than the present world. Although it does
contain some significant departures from present trends, it is not a wildly
different world from that which we see today. Thus, for example, we have
not made any explicit hypothesis about revolutionary technological
breakthroughs emerging in the coming fifty years that provide a
miraculous solution to global or national problems. Instead, this scenario
contemplates mostly improvements (albeit at times dramatic ones) of
technologies already existing or at the laboratory stage. Neither have we
assumed revolutionary changes in the basic energy services that will be
demanded in the future, although the way they will be satisfied may be
significantly different. In this sense we have described a transitional world
to something that couldbe very different.

Nevertheless, moving to the world depicted poses some daunting
challenges and has some strong implications in a variety of policy areas
ranging from energy to environmental and R&D policy. The quantitative
framework constructed in the previous section and the data shown in
Table3.2 below helps us examine more closely some of those challenges.

Table 3.2 compares yearly growth rates of total primary energy supply by
source in the SD Vision scenario with historical growth rates.

Postulating an increase in the share of non-carbon-based energy resources
(which grow from the present 16.5 to almost 46%), in this scenario implies
going from an aggregate production level of 68.5 EJ in 2000 to 465.3 EJ
in 2050, almost a seven-fold increase. Considering that we are dealing
with an aggregate of technologies and resources, rather than with only
one technology/resource, the magnitude of the change is not something
unheard of in past transitions occurring in comparable time scales
(Nakicenovic et al., 1998). Much more extraordinary changes happened
either in the first or in the second half of the 20th

century. The challenge,
however, is not a small one and it becomes clearer if we consider the main
components of this non-carbon emitting energy supply.

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