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Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003

Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003


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Publicado pori-people

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Published by: i-people on Mar 28, 2008
Direitos Autorais:Attribution Non-commercial


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Life Goes onis a world of slow innovation, closed markets and grey (rather
than green) environmental etiquette. A world in which developing
countries fail to participate in the FCCC efforts and discussions on
environmental issues disappear from the international scene. Economic
growth is slow (about 2% per year). Developed and developing
countries alike return to protectionist policies and this restraining of
markets fosters slow technological innovation. Developing countries focus
on increasing domestic standards of living. Environmentally, it is a world
that builds on existing technologies and offers few chances of becoming

Grasping at strawsis a scenario of green environmental etiquette,
reasonable economic growth (about 2% per year yet falling over time) and
wide-open global markets but a slow pace of innovation. Governments of
developed countries try a hasty response to the climate change issue by
rapidly deploying off-the-shelf technologies, hoping that this provides a
quick solution. Some near-term results and both economic and political
advantages are achieved. But the focus on deployment and near-term
activities produces little investment along the early stages of the
innovation chain: the lack of commitment on long-term R&D leaves
countries with a limited pool of technologies from which to draw. By 2030
very few innovative technologies are available to address the climate
change issue. It is a light-green world in the near term that turns grey at a
later stage.

Taking care of businessis a world of rapid innovation, open markets and
grey environmental etiquette: a world driven by economics and profit and
dominated by interconnected transnational companies. Capital stock
turnover is fast and economies are strongly independent. Expanded
economic growth (about 4% per year) leads to the overlooking of
increasing inequity between developed and developing countries and


Appendix I: Scenarios from the Literature Reviewed

environmental issues. In developing countries rapid population growth and
increasing poverty and environmental pressure lead to social conflict.
However, the issue in international discussion is wealth distribution rather
than the environment: despite lack of attention for the environment,
technological advances do to some degree reduce GHG emissions.

Come togetheris a world of open markets, rapid innovation and high
levels of environmental etiquette. Consensus prevails among industry,
government and the public on environmental matters and similar views are
shared internationally. Multinational companies exert political as well as
economic power and influence government on environmental, trade and
monetary issues. The world is highly interconnected and new technologies
are openly developed, traded and applied in innovative ways across all
sectors. Canada is well placed in this global market and its industries are
able to innovate both products and processes. This world is mid-green in
colour: reduced GHG emissions realised through technology improvements
are partly offset by expanded industrial activity through continuing
worldwide economic growth (Cliffe, 1999).

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