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Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003

Energy to 2050, Scenarios for a Sustainable Future, 2003

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Sections

Variable (unit of measure)

199020002010

2020

2030

20402050

Per capita income ratio (Annex-I/

16.1514.1610.29

6.21

4.24

3.32

2.75

Non-annex-I countries) - mer

Per capita income ratio (Annex-I/

5.71

5.33

4.63

3.69

3.05

2.64

2.34

Non-annex-I countries) -ppp

Per capita income, overall

3.97

4.38

5.34

7.48

11.16

15.8721.50

(103

US$/yr) - mer

Per capita income, overall

4.89

5.46

6.64

8.83

12.06

16.2921.42

(103

US$/yr) - ppp

Energy intensity of GDP

16.8215.5213.94

11.39

9.31

7.52

6.48

(106

J/US$) - mer

Energy intensity of GDP

13.6512.4511.22

9.66

8.61

7.33

6.51

(106

J/US$) - ppp

Per capita energy (109

J) *

66.8068.0174.49

85.24103.94119.38139.40

Share of zero-carbon in primary

17.5216.4717.93

21.41

25.3833.0942.87

energy (%)

Share of oil products in transport (%)

96

89

82

72

60

48

37

Source: Values computed from SRES data. http://sres.ciesin.org/final_data.html

Table A.II.6 Selected Indicators for the WEO-2002 Reference Scenario

Variable (unit of measure)

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

GDP (109

US$ at 1995 prices and ppp)

30865

41609

57174

76883100160

Population – million

5226

6023

6778

7518

8196

Per capita income, (103

US$/yr) – ppp

5.91

6.91

8.43

10.23

12.22

Energy intensity of GDP (106

J/US$) - ppp

10.59

9.10

8.05

7.08

6.31

Per capita energy (109

J) *

62.56

62.89

67.86

72.45

77.10

Share of zero-carbon in primary energy (%)

11.19

12.59

12.44

11.59

11.21

Share of oil products in transport (%)

95.4

95.2

95.4

95.6

95.8

Source: Values computed from WEO-2002 data.

On energy intensity of GDP, the two SRES scenarios start diverging: for A1B
this index falls to 74.8% of its 2000 value in 2030 and to 61.9% in 2050;
for A1T the index falls more rapidly, to 69.1% by 2030 and to 52.2% by
2050. Energy intensity of income in the A1T scenario declines at an
annual rate of 1.6% over the period, which is on the high end of the
spectrum for rates historically attained. This decline would be slower in the
first part of the period (-1.3%) and more rapid in the second part (-1.85%).
Energy intensity of GDP in the WEO shows a dynamic not too different
from that of A1T: by 2030, energy intensity is reduced to 69.3% of its
2000 value.

Per capita energy increases dramatically with respect to 2000 in the A1B
scenario: 62.2% by 2030 and 136.5% (more than double) by 2050. The
growth with respect to 2000 is slower for the A1T scenario: 52.8% by
2030 and 104.7% by 2050. In the WEO case, the increase is much slower:
22.6% by 2030.

Figure A.II.6 shows CO2emissions from fossil fuels burning in the three
cases. Again, the WEO trajectory is the lowest of the three, due to the
lower GDP growth assumptions. By 2030, the WEO reference world will
continue along a linear trend, emits about 10.4 Gigatons of Carbon
equivalent, while the A1T world emits 12.26 GtC and the A1B world emits
13.2 GtC. After 2030, the divergence between the A1B and the A1T
scenario is clearer: while in the first case, emissions continue growing,
although at a decreasing pace, in the A1T scenario clearly peak around
2045 and start bending down. The difference between the two is due to
the different technology mix developed in the two cases. Scenario A1T
develops more successfully non-carbon based energy technologies on the
supply side, which tends to mitigate further energy supply shortages.
Scenario A1B develops both carbon-based and non-carbon-based
technologies, which compete in the marketplace.

205

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Source: Elaboration on data from SRES and IEA’s WEO - 2002.

As can be seen from Tables A.II.4 and A.II.5, the share of zero carbon
technologies in primary energy is almost the same by 2030 for both the
A1B and the A1T scenario, at a little over 25%, while in the case of the
WEO this share is much lower (11.2%). In the latter case, it is even worse
with respect to the year 2000 level. The A1B scenario then attains by
2050 a 37.7% share, while the A1T reaches a 42.9% level.

If we look at the share of fossil fuel products in transport energy demand,
in the A1B scenario this share declines gradually to about 43% by 2050,
while in the A1T scenario it falls dramatically to 37%. On the other hand,
in the WEO case the share of oil products in transport remains at about
95.5% throughout the period to 2030, the rest being mostly gas and
electricity.

The A1B and A1T scenarios therefore represent a suitable basis for our
analysis because of their fast technology and economic dynamic, which
can accommodate dramatic changes like the ones envisioned in our SD
Vision scenario. The A1T case seems particularly interesting as it already
envisages a 43% share by 2050, although not as a policy target but as a
result of other drivers, like technological change and strong environmental
values held by the general population. Table A.II.7 describes the fuel mix
characteristics of this scenario (as represented by IIASA’s MESSAGE model)
with some regional detail.

Tables A.II.8 to A.II.12 show in more detail the characteristics of the SD
Vision scenario, at the global and regional level.

206

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Years

GtC

2

0

0

0

2

0

0

2

2

0

0

4

2

0

0

6

2

0

0

8

2

0

1

0

2

0

1

2

2

0

1

4

2

0

1

6

2

0

1

8

2

0

2

0

2

0

2

2

2

0

2

4

2

0

2

6

2

0

2

8

2

0

3

0

2

0

3

2

2

0

3

4

2

0

3

6

2

0

3

8

2

0

4

0

2

0

4

2

2

0

4

4

2

0

4

6

2

0

4

8

2

0

5

0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

A1B A1T WEO

Figure A.II.6 CO2Emissions

207

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II.7 Characteristics of the A1T Scenario with the MESSAGE Model

World

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

25.9225.3824.3823.1821.18

15.01

9.82

Oil

36.50

37.2633.5229.7926.2523.6420.62

Gas

20.0620.8924.1725.6327.2028.2526.69

Nuclear

2.08

1.97

2.20

2.59

4.64

7.69

9.48

Biomass

13.09

10.9410.78

11.5012.17

13.4515.12

Other renewables

2.36

3.56

4.95

7.32

8.56

11.9518.27

Total

100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00100.00

of which zero-carbon

17.52

16.47

17.93

21.4125.3833.0942.87

Oil as a % of total transport energy95.8688.8382.4671.7860.4747.5737.30
Oil for transport in total oil %

49.86

51.8859.0361.5065.5364.2561.81

OECD90

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

23.9

19.4

17.7

14.7

10.9

4.7

1.6

Oil

45.4

44.8

39.9

33.4

27.4

23.0

17.9

Gas

20.7

24.2

28.2

32.4

34.5

32.9

29.6

Nuclear

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.4

9.3

18.0

21.9

Biomass

3.5

4.6

5.4

7.9

9.3

10.1

12.0

Other renewables

2.8

3.4

4.9

7.1

8.6

11.3

17.1

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

10.0

11.7

14.2

19.5

27.2

39.4

51.0

Oil as a % of total transport energy

98.0

92.2

88.7

74.5

62.1

53.6

46.2

Oil for transport in total oil %

56.4

57.8

70.5

80.9

89.5

98.4

107.2

REF

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

26.7

25.2

18.9

20.5

20.3

16.9

10.6

Oil

29.3

26.8

22.8

21.6

17.8

15.0

11.4

Gas

38.4

42.1

52.8

48.8

47.3

46.7

49.2

Nuclear

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.4

4.3

9.1

9.6

Biomass

2.6

2.0

1.4

2.0

3.3

4.7

7.2

Other renewables

1.6

2.4

2.9

5.7

6.9

7.6

12.1

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

5.6

5.9

5.6

9.1

14.6

21.4

28.9

Oil as a % of total transport energy

82.2

63.3

55.3

44.4

33.3

19.9

14.4

Oil for transport in total oil %

31.2

37.9

41.4

38.9

41.6

34.4

39.8

208

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II.7 (continued)

ASIA

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

40.5

47.1

44.7

41.6

37.8

26.5

16.8

Oil

20.8

24.0

24.3

23.9

23.5

23.7

21.9

Gas

3.8

4.9

8.9

12.1

14.7

19.2

20.9

Nuclear

0.4

0.5

1.1

1.7

2.6

3.9

5.7

Biomass

33.0

20.8

17.0

14.2

13.5

15.2

17.8

Other renewables

1.5

2.7

4.0

6.5

8.0

11.4

16.8

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

34.9

23.9

22.0

22.4

24.0

30.6

40.3

Oil as a % of total transport energy

93.5

90.1

82.4

79.6

69.8

53.0

40.0

Oil for transport in total oil %

39.2

44.3

50.3

53.5

65.2

64.4

63.1

ALM

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

9.5

7.2

7.9

6.9

7.5

7.8

6.7

Oil

41.5

46.2

41.6

37.9

32.5

26.8

23.2

Gas

16.4

20.4

24.4

26.8

30.3

30.4

25.9

Nuclear

0.2

0.1

0.9

1.7

2.8

3.9

5.8

Biomass

28.9

19.7

17.3

16.9

16.8

16.6

16.0

Other renewables

3.4

6.4

7.9

9.8

10.0

14.6

22.4

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

32.6

26.2

26.1

28.4

29.7

35.0

44.2

Oil as a % of total transport energy

98.9

90.8

77.0

67.6

55.5

41.6

31.6

Oil for transport in total oil %

53.4

48.9

50.0

49.5

49.3

46.2

40.0

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

209

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II. 8 Characteristics of the SD Vision Scenario

World

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Population (million)

5262

6117

6888

7617

8182

85318704

GNP/GDP (ppp) trillion (1990 prices)26

33.4

43.0

64.9

94.9

131.2173.2

Primary Energy – EJ

Coal

91.10

105.6

118.3

135.6153.5128.0

99.3

Oil

128.3

155.0165.8178.5193.0

191.4181.3

Gas

70.5

86.9

123.2

157.3206.9244.2267.1

Nuclear

7.3

8.2

11.4

18.1

39.1

75.3

114.5

Biomass

46

45.5

52.8

69.3

92.3

117.5159.0

Other renewables

8.3

14.8

25.1

45.6

71.6

122.1191.8

Total

351.5

416.0496.6604.3756.3878.51013.0

Energy for transport – EJ

66.7

90.5

119.7

155.8217.7

277.7344.4

Oil – EJ

64.0

80.4

98.4

111.3130.6

131.2132.4

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

25.9

25.4

23.8

22.4

20.3

14.6

9.8

Oil

36.5

37.3

33.4

29.5

25.5

21.8

17.9

Gas

20.1

20.9

24.8

26.0

27.4

27.8

26.4

Nuclear

2.1

2.0

2.3

3.0

5.2

8.6

11.3

Biomass

13.1

10.9

10.6

11.5

12.2

13.4

15.7

Other renewables

2.4

3.6

5.1

7.5

9.5

13.9

18.9

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

17.5

16.5

18.0

22.0

26.8

35.8

45.9

Transport share of primary energy %

19.0

21.8

24.1

25.8

28.8

31.6

34.0

Oil as a % of total transport energy

95.9

88.8

82.2

71.4

60.0

47.2

38.4

Oil for transport in total oil %

49.9

51.9

59.4

62.4

67.7

68.6

73.0

Emissions from fossil fuels GtC

5.78

6.90

7.98

9.19

10.6810.57

9.99

Carbon storage GtC

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.27

0.79

1.65

2.58

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

Table A.II.9 Characteristics of the SD Vision Scenario

OECD90

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Population (million)

859

919

965

1007

1043

10691081

GNP/GDP (ppp) trillion (1990 prices)14

17.8

20.0

26.8

32.7

39.2

46.2

Primary Energy – EJ

Coal

38.0

36.0

33.6

29.9

24.2

11.9

5.0

Oil

72.1

83.2

78.5

68.9

58.9

49.2

38.9

Gas

32.9

44.9

58.2

68.0

76.9

75.4

77.1

Nuclear

5.9

6.8

7.9

10.3

21.9

39.0

51.0

Biomass

5.6

8.6

10.7

17.1

20.6

24.4

31.7

Other renewables

4.4

6.3

10.3

15.4

20.3

29.3

40.6

Total

158.9

185.8199.2209.6222.8229.2244.4

Energy for transport – EJ

41.5

52.2

63.2

76.0

88.1

90.9

96.8

Oil – EJ

40.7

48.1

55.8

56.2

54.2

47.8

43.3

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

23.9

19.4

16.9

14.2

10.9

5.2

2.1

Oil

45.4

44.8

39.4

32.9

26.4

21.5

15.9

Gas

20.7

24.2

29.2

32.4

34.5

32.9

31.6

Nuclear

3.7

3.7

4.0

4.9

9.8

17.0

20.9

Biomass

3.5

4.6

5.4

8.2

9.3

10.6

13.0

Other renewables

2.8

3.4

5.2

7.3

9.1

12.8

16.6

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

10.0

11.7

14.5

20.5

28.2

40.4

50.5

Transport share of primary energy %

26.1

28.1

31.8

36.3

39.5

39.7

39.6

Oil as a % of total transport energy

98.0

92.2

88.2

74.0

61.6

52.6

44.7

Oil for transport in total oil %

56.4

57.8

71.0

81.6

92.1

97.2

111.1

Emissions from fossil fuels GtC

2.80

3.14

3.19

3.07

2.88

2.37

2.03

Carbon storage GtC

0.00

0.01

0.03

0.12

0.26

0.43

0.55

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

210

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II.10 Characteristics of the SD Vision Scenario

REF

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Population (million)

413

419

427

433

435

433

423

GNP/GDP (ppp) trillion (1990 prices)2.6

2.2

2.5

3.6

5.7

8.8

11.5

Primary Energy - EJ

Coal

18.6

13.7

10.5

12.3

15.5

14.3

10.2

Oil

20.4

14.6

12.7

13.3

13.6

12.2

10.0

Gas

26.7

22.9

29.3

30.9

36.9

39.9

41.9

Nuclear

1.0

0.8

0.7

1.2

3.6

8.4

10.7

Biomass

1.8

1.1

0.8

1.6

3.0

4.5

7.3

Other renewables

1.1

1.3

1.6

3.9

5.8

7.9

12.0

Total

69.6

54.4

55.6

63.2

78.5

87.2

92.2

Energy for transport - EJ

7.8

8.7

9.5

12.0

17.5

22.6

29.0

Oil - EJ

6.4

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.5

4.5

4.8

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

26.7

25.2

18.9

19.5

19.8

16.4

11.1

Oil

29.3

26.8

22.8

21.1

17.3

14.0

10.9

Gas

38.4

42.1

52.8

48.8

47.1

45.7

45.4

Nuclear

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.9

4.6

9.6

11.6

Biomass

2.6

2.0

1.4

2.5

3.8

5.2

8.0

Other renewables

1.6

2.4

2.9

6.2

7.4

9.1

13.1

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

5.6

5.9

5.6

10.6

15.8

23.9

32.6

Transport share of primary energy %

11.1

16.0

17.1

18.9

22.2

25.9

31.5

Oil as a % of total transport energy

82.2

63.3

55.3

43.9

31.3

19.9

16.4

Oil for transport in total oil %

31.2

37.9

41.4

39.3

40.2

36.9

47.4

Emissions from fossil fuels GtC

1.3

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.1

Carbon storage GtC

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.03

0.07

0.14

0.28

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

211

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II.11 Characteristics of the SD Vision Scenario

ASIA

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Population (million)

2798

3261

3620

3937

4147

42384220

GNP/GDP (ppp) trillion (1990 prices)5.3

8.3

12.1

20.5

32.6

47.0

63.0

Primary Energy - EJ

Coal

29.8

51.0

67.1

84.8

101.1

84.7

67.1

Oil

15.3

26.0

36.7

48.9

63.0

67.8

65.6

Gas

2.8

5.3

13.5

24.9

39.4

58.1

74.8

Nuclear

0.3

0.5

1.9

4.4

8.5

17.4

30.9

Biomass

24.3

22.5

25.6

29.4

38.4

48.7

68.7

Other renewables

1.1

2.9

6.0

13.9

24.7

44.4

68.9

Total

73.6

108.2150.8206.4275.1

321.0376.0

Energy for transport - EJ

6.41

12.7822.3833.1860.3592.43130.20

Oil - EJ

6.00

11.51

18.4526.4242.1249.0154.65

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

40.5

47.1

44.5

41.1

36.8

26.5

17.8

Oil

20.8

24.0

24.3

23.7

22.9

21.2

17.4

Gas

3.8

4.9

8.9

12.1

14.3

18.2

19.9

Nuclear

0.4

0.5

1.3

2.1

3.1

5.4

8.2

Biomass

33.0

20.8

17.0

14.2

14.0

15.2

18.3

Other renewables

1.5

2.7

4.0

6.8

9.0

13.9

18.3

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.5100.0

of which zero-carbon

34.9

23.9

22.2

23.1

26.0

34.6

44.8

Transport share of primary energy %

8.7

11.8

14.8

16.1

21.9

28.8

34.6

Oil as a % of total transport energy

93.5

90.1

82.4

79.6

69.8

53.0

42.0

Oil for transport in total oil %

39.2

44.3

50.3

54.0

66.9

72.3

83.3

Emissions from fossil fuels GtC

1.10

1.88

2.62

3.48

4.38

4.33

4.09

Carbon storage GtC

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.07

0.31

0.65

1.02

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

212

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

Table A.II.12 Characteristics of the SD Vision Scenario

ALM

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Population (million)

1192

1519

1875

2241

2557

27912980

GNP/GDP (ppp) trillion (1990 prices)3.8

5.1

7.4

12.7

21.2

33.2

49.2

Primary Energy - EJ

Coal

4.7

4.9

7.2

8.6

12.6

17.0

17.0

Oil

20.5

31.2

37.9

47.4

57.5

62.2

66.7

Gas

8.1

13.8

22.2

33.5

53.7

70.9

73.3

Nuclear

0.1

0.1

0.9

2.2

5.1

10.6

21.9

Biomass

14.3

13.3

15.7

21.1

30.3

39.9

51.2

Other renewables

1.7

4.3

7.2

12.3

20.8

40.6

70.3

Total

49.4

67.6

91.1

125.2180.0

241.3300.4

Energy for transport - EJ

11.1

16.8

24.6

34.7

51.8

71.8

88.4

Oil - EJ

11.0

15.3

18.9

23.5

28.8

29.9

29.7

1990

2000

2010

20202030

20402050

Primary Energy - % shares

Coal

9.5

7.2

7.9

6.9

7.0

7.1

5.7

Oil

41.5

46.2

41.6

37.9

32.0

25.8

22.2

Gas

16.4

20.4

24.4

26.8

29.8

29.4

24.4

Nuclear

0.2

0.1

0.9

1.7

2.8

4.4

7.3

Biomass

28.9

19.7

17.3

16.9

16.8

16.6

17.0

Other renewables

3.4

6.4

7.9

9.8

11.5

16.8

23.4

Total

100.0

100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0100.0

of which zero-carbon

32.6

26.2

26.1

28.4

31.2

37.8

47.7

Transport share of primary energy %

22.4

24.9

27.0

27.7

28.8

29.8

29.4

Oil as a % of total transport energy

98.9

90.8

77.0

67.6

55.5

41.6

33.6

Oil for transport in total oil %

53.4

48.9

50.0

49.5

50.0

48.0

44.5

Emissions from fossil fuels GtC

0.62

0.91

1.22

1.60

2.20

2.66

2.78

Carbon storage GtC

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.05

0.15

0.43

0.72

Source: Elaboration on data from IIASA.

213

Appendix II: Scenario Comparisons

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