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ABMApplications
Ut S j P t Utomo Sarjono Putro
ABMLecture
Analyticalvs Simulation
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MathematicalModels
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Decision Support Systems and Intelligent Systems, EfraimTurbanandJ ayE. Aronson, 6thedition,
Copyright 2001, PrenticeHall, Upper SaddleRiver, NJ
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TravelingSalesmanProblem
TheTravelingSalesmanProblem isdefinedas:
Wearegivenasetofcitiesandasymmetricdistancematrix
thatindicatesthecostoftravelfromeachcitytoeveryother
city.
Thegoalistofindtheshortestcirculartour,visitingeverycity
exactlyonce,soastominimizethetotaltravelcost,which
i l d th t f t li f th l t it b k t th fi t
TravelingSalesmanProblem 5
includesthecostoftravelingfromthelastcitybacktothefirst
city.
Distance/CostMatrixForTSP
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 863 1987 1407 998 1369
2 863 0 1124 1012 1049 1083
3 1987 1124 0 1461 1881 1676
4 1407 1012 1461 0 2061 2095
5 998 1049 1881 2061 0 331
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Costmatrixforsixcityexample.
DistancesinKilometers
5 998 1049 1881 2061 0 331
6 1369 1083 1676 2095 331 0
TSPwith6cities
Irepresenteverycitywithaninteger.
C id 6 I di i i Consider6Indiancities
Mumbai,Nagpur,Calcutta,Delhi,BangaloreandChennai
andassignanumbertoeach.
Mumbai1
Nagpur 2
7
Calcutta 3
Delhi4
Bangalore5
Chennai6
Alternativesofroutes
Thusapathwouldberepresentedasasequence ofintegers
from 1 to 6. from1to6.
Thepath[123456] representsapathfromMumbaito
Nagpur,NagpurtoCalcutta,CalcuttatoDelhi,Delhito
Bangalore,BangaloretoChennai,andfinallyfromChennaito
Mumbai.
ThisisanexampleofPermutationEncoding asthepositionof
the elements determines the fitness of the solution
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theelementsdeterminesthefitnessofthesolution.
Thisisknowntobeahardproblemtosolvebecausethe
numberofpossibleroutesisN!whereN=thenumberof
cities
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AnalyticalSolutiontoTSP
AnalyticalsolutionencodedinVisualC++onaPentium4personal
computerwithspeed3GHzand448MBRAMunderMSWindowsXP.
Graphic plotted on logarithmic scale Graphicplottedonlogarithmicscale
1.00E02
1.00E+00
1.00E+02
1.00E+04
1.00E+06
1.00E+08
0 5 10 15 20 25
im
e
in
S
e
c
o
n
s
Timetofindoptimum
solutionfor20citiesis
morethan19years
1.00E10
1.00E08
1.00E06
1.00E04
T
Number ofCities
GraphicisadaptedfromZakir H.Ahmed,GeneticAlgorithmfortheTravelingSalesmanProblemusingSequential
ConstructiveCrossoverOperator,InternationalJournalofBiometrics&Bioinformatics(IJBB)Volume(3):Issue(6)
UsingGAbasedSimulationforTSP
Current
Population(t)
Next
Population
(t+1)
Survivalofthefittest
NaturalSelection
Encoding,Selection,Reproduction
Thefittest
Population
(endof
simulation)
Encoding
Irepresenteverycitywithaninteger.
C id 6 I di i i Consider6Indiancities
Mumbai,Nagpur,Calcutta,Delhi,BangaloreandChennai
andassignanumbertoeach.
Mumbai1
Nagpur 2
11
Calcutta 3
Delhi4
Bangalore5
Chennai6
Encoding(contd.)
Thusapathwouldberepresentedasasequence ofintegers
from 1 to 6. from1to6.
Thepath[123456] representsapathfromMumbaito
Nagpur,NagpurtoCalcutta,CalcuttatoDelhi,Delhito
Bangalore,BangaloretoChennai,andfinallyfromChennaito
Mumbai.
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FitnessFunction
Thefitnessfunctionwillbethetotalcostofthetour
t d b h h representedbyeachchromosome.
Thiscanbecalculatedasthesumofthedistances traversedin
eachtravelsegment.
The Lesser The Sum The Fitter The Solution
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TheLesserTheSum,TheFitterTheSolution
RepresentedByThatChromosome.
Distance/CostMatrixForTSP
1 2 3 4 5 6
1 0 863 1987 1407 998 1369
2 863 0 1124 1012 1049 1083
3 1987 1124 0 1461 1881 1676
4 1407 1012 1461 0 2061 2095
5 998 1049 1881 2061 0 331
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Costmatrixforsixcityexample.
DistancesinKilometers
5 998 1049 1881 2061 0 331
6 1369 1083 1676 2095 331 0
FitnessFunction (contd.)
So,forachromosome[413256],thetotalcostoftravelor
fitnesswillbecalculatedasshownbelow
Fitness =1407+1987+1124+1049+331+2095
=7993kms.
SinceourobjectiveistoMinimize thedistance,thelesserthe
l d h f h l
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totaldistance,thefitterthesolution.
Mainidea: "SelectTheBest,DiscardTheRest.
Reproduction
Theprocessthatchoosessolutionstobepreserved
andallowedtoreproduceandselectswhichones
musttodieout.
Themaingoal ofthereproductionoperatoristoemphasize
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Themaingoal ofthereproductionoperatoristoemphasize
thegoodsolutions andeliminatethebadsolutions ina
population(whilekeepingthepopulationsizeconstant )
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So,howtoselectthebest?
RouletteSelection
RankSelection
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TournamentSelection
Main idea: the fitter is the solution with the most
Roulettewheelselection
Mainidea:thefitteristhesolutionwiththemost
chancestobechosen
HOW IT WORKS ?
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HOWITWORKS?
No. String Fitness % Of Total
ExampleofRoulettewheelselection
1 01101 169 14.4
2 11000 576 49.2
3 01000 64 5.5
19
4
10011 361 30.9
Total
1170 100.0
Citation: :www.cs.vu.nl/~gusz/
Roulettewheelselection
Chromosome1
Chromosome 2
Chromosome 3
Chromosome 4
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Allyouhavetodoisspintheballandgrabthechromosomeatthe
pointitstops
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Mainidea:combinegeneticmaterial(bits)of2
parentchromosomes(solutions)and
d hild i h t i ti
Crossover
produceanewchildpossessingcharacteristics
ofbothparents.
Howitworks?
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Severalmethods.
SinglePointCrossover Arandompointischosenonthe
individualchromosomes(strings)andthegenetic
materialisexchangedatthispoint.
Crossovermethods
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Mainidea: randominversionofbitsinsolution
tomaintaindiversityinpopulationset
Mutation
y p p
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Ex.giraffes mutationscouldbebeneficial.
Citation: http://www.ewh.ieee.org/soc/es/May2001/14/MUTATE0.GIF
SpectrumofAgentBasedModel
Positive
Developandstrengthen
theoreticalunderstanding
Testingatheory
Strengthen mental model
Normative
Policydesign
Analysisconsequencesof
policyimplementation
Scenario planning
Strengthenmentalmodel
andintuition
Scenarioplanning
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ExamplesofABMmodelling and
simulation
Security
PatrolMaritime
AntiBio
Terrorism
Social
Pandemic
Prevention
Education
Energy
Electricity
Efficiency
BBM
Distribution
Agricultural
Transportation
Traffic
EvacuationRoute
AntiBirdFluPandemicSimulation
Deskripsi:
ThismodelistodeveloppolicytopreventbirdflupandemicinBandung
Spektrum: Normative
Input:
Datademography
Datacitystructure
Datapeopleactivity
DataAviandistribution
Spektrum: Normative
Tahap Pengembagan: Advance
Pengembang : TIT;SBMITB
Output:
Estimationofnumberof
peoplewhoareinfected,stay
inhospital,anddeadforeach
policy.
SystemsResearchandBehavioralScience,Vol.25,No.5
TransitionmodelofBirdFluVirus
Dead
4
3days
Dead 1
Recovery
1
Infection
2 0,8
2m
3days 2days
3s 0,2
3
0,8
3days
0,2
4m
0,8
1
3days
4c
0,2
Dead 1
Recovered
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3m
0
2m
2days
2days
1
3s
1day
5
1
1
2days
1
BandungPeopleActivityModel
Policies ??
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ResultsofSimulation
Policies:
Closingschool
Usingmask
Disinfectantusing
Pengaturan kepadatan ruang
Strategi vaksinasi
InfectedPeople
DeadPeople
Output:
Numberofpeoplewhoare
infectedanddeadforeachpolicy
combination.
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AntiSmallpoxBioTerrorismSimulation
Deskripsi:
ThismodelModel istoformulatepolicytominimizenegativeimpactsofsmallpoxbio
terrorism.
Spektrum Normative
Input:
Datademography
Datacitystructure
Datapeopleactivities
Spektrum: Normative
Developmentstage: Advance
Creator: TIT;SBMITB
Output:
Numberofpeoplewhoare
infectedanddeadforeach
policy.
Simulationofrecruitingsystemfor
newhighschoolstudents
Description:
Thismodelistoformulaterecruitmentsystemfornewhighschoolstudentsinorderto
minimizeschoolsthatfinallyhaslackofstudents
Spectrum: Normative
Input:
Datapeopledistribution
Dataschooldisribution
Datacapacityandhistoryof
studentsacceptedinhigh
schools in Bandung
Spectrum: Normative
Developmentstage: Advance
Creator: SBMITB
0.100
0.150
0.200
0.250
0.300
0.350
0.400
Enrollmentdistributionineachcluster
Output:
Estimationofstudent
distributionineachschoolfor
eachscenariosofcluster
numbers,numberofschools
canbeelected
schoolsinBandung.
0.000
0.050
0.100
1 2 3 4
Equal Neutral Pessimistic Optimistic
Simulationofhouseholdelectricity
consumptionofinBandung
Description:
Thismodelistoformulatepolicyaboutpricetariffforeachhouseholdconsumers
segmentsinordertopromoteelectricityefficiency.
Input:
Datasegmentelectricty segment
Datamonthlyloadforeach
segment
Data household electricuty
Spektrum: Normative
Developmentstage: Medium
Creator: SBMITB
1500000
2000000
2500000
MonthlyElectricityConsumption(kWH)
+10%TariffScenario
R1450
R1900
R11300
Output:
Estimationofloadusedper
scenarioTDL.
Datahouseholdelectricuty
appliances(survey)
0
500000
1000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
R12200
R2
R3
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SimulationofBBMDistributionin
Indonesia
Description:
ThismodelistostudybehaviorpatternthatinfluenceBBMsmugglingtoforeign
countriesandeffortsnecessarytominimizeit.
Input:
DatadistributionchannelBBM
fromPERTAMINA
Spectrum: Positive
Developmentstage: Advance
Creator: SBMITB
Output:
EstimationofnumberofBBM
smuggledtoforeigncountries
foreachbehaviorpattern.
Evacuationsimulationforthecityof
Padanginthecaseoftsunami
Description:
Thismodelistodesignevacuationscenariotominimizenumberofvictims.Evacuation
processisstartedin5minutesafteradetectedtsunami.
Input:
Datageography
Datanumberanddistributionofpeople.
Evacuationscenario
Spectrum: Positive
Developmentstage: initialstage
Creator: BerlinInstituteof
Technology
Output:
Estimationofnumberofevacuated
people,numberofvictims,outflow
rateforeachleveloftsunamiand
evacuationroute.
TrafficSimulation
Description:
ThismodelistodesigntrafficsysteminBerlinCitytodecreasetrafficjam.
Input:
Dataroadstructure
Datapeopledistribution
Spectrum: Positive
Developmentstage:initialstage
Creator: BerlinInstituteof
Technology,ETHZurich
Output:
Estimationofvehiclespeedinsegmentof
roadsforeachtrafficsettings.
Datadailyrouteofpeople(traveldemand)
fromsurvey
AgentBasedSimulationofAgricultural
Policies
Description:
Thismodelistoanalyzeimpactofagriculturalpolicyonproductivityofagricultural
fieldsandlivestock(measuredwithEUR/ha)
Input:
Landscapefieldsforagriculture
Spectrum: Positive
Developmentstage: initial
Creator: LeibnizInstituteof
AgriculturalDevelopment
Output:
Estimationofoutput(EUS/ha)foreachpolicyoninterestonborrowedcapital(IBC),intereston
equitycapital(IEC),costsavingsduetomanagerialability(MA)andfortechnologicalchange(TC)
BusinessModelforeach
commodity
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AGENTBASEDSIMULATIONFORU
BOATSSEARCHOPERATION
Description:
Thismodelistoformulateairandmaritimepatrolpatterntominimizepotencyof
infiltrationofsubmarineshipsfromenemy.
Input:
Landscapearea
Model specification of
Spectrum: Positive
Developmentstage: initial
Creator: TheAirForce
InstituteofTechnology
Output:
Estimationofsuccessofdetectinginfiltration
ofsubmarineforeachpatrolpattern.
Modelspecificationof
airplane,ship,radar
Patrolpattern
RIVERREGIONUNITin:
Prov.Banten
DKIJakarta
Prov.JawaBarat
ManagingCollaborationinCitarum River
CitarumRiverBasin:
6.080Km2
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POLAINDUKJAWABARAT2000/ MCC2001
LectureNotesinArtificialIntelligence(LNAI),Springer
TheU.S.AirForceResearchLaboratory
POPULATION
PRESSUREcauses
deforestation
TOOMUCH:
FLOOD
ThreeClassicalProblemsofCitarumRiverbasinProblem
RUSTAM SYARIF/ 2002
UNCARECULTURE
causesrubbishalong
theriver
TOOLITTLE:
DROUGHT
RUSTAMSYARIF/ 2002
RUSTAMSYARIF/ 2002
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Untreatment
wastedisposalfrom
industries
TOODIRTY:
DISEASE
RUSTAMSYARIF/ 2002
ActorsinvolvedinDASCitarum
Citi i
Selfish behavior (silo)create
manysocialproblems
Needcollaboration
Citiesin
downstre
ams
Textile
industries
Local
peoplein
upperstrea
Environme
Regencies
inupper
stream
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upperstrea
ms
Peoplein
downstrea
ms
Environme
ntalists
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PartialProposalsCreateConfrontations
STOP DEFORESTATIONNOT HAPPY UPPER LOCAL GOVERNMENT
STOP ILLEGAL LODGING NOT HAPPY UPPER STREAM LOCAL PEOPLE
AUTHORITARIANGOVERNMENTNOT HAPPY COMMUNITY
SELF INTERESTS UPSTREAM SUFFER DOWNSTREAM
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SELF INTERESTS UPSTREAM SUFFER DOWNSTREAM
DOWNSTREAMDOESNT CONTRIBUTE TO UPPER UNPROTECTEDUPSTREAM
BLAME INDUSTRIESUNEMPLOYMENT
OVERACT ENVIRONMENTALIST STAGNANT DEVELOPMENT
ATLASTTHEENVIRONMENTISMOREANDMOREDEGRADED
ANDTHEPEOPLEISTHENBEINGVICTIMS
QualitativeResearches
Citiesin
downstr
eams Textile
industrie
s
Regencie
sin
upper
Selfish behavior (silo)Createsocial
problemsNeedcollaboration
Local
peoplein
upperstre
ams
Peoplein
downstre
ams
Environm
entalists
stream
Interview
Interactionmodel
amongstakeholders:
1. Position
2. Interest
3. Dilema
4. Emotion
DramaTheory
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Modelofstakeholderinteraction
CurrentCRF Options
Agent 1`s
position
Agent-2`s
position Options
Agent 1`s
position
Agent-2`s
position
Agent1 Agent2
NewPayoff
NewEmotion
O1 A (75) R (87)
O2 R (79) A (89)
O1 A (75) R (87)
O2 R (79) A (89)
Negotiatian
CurrentDilemma
NewEmotion
NewPerception
NextCRF
NextDilemma
Internalattributes:
Payoff/Preference
Perceptionotheragentspayoff
Bargainingstrategy
Emotion
Internalattributes:
Payoff/Preference
Perceptionotheragentspayoff
Bargainingstrategy
Emotion
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ManagingCollaborationinCitarum
RiverBasin
Citiesin
downstr
eams Textile
industrie
s
Regencie
sin
upper
stream
Interview
Local
peoplein
upperstre
ams
Peoplein
downstre
ams
Environm
entalists
stream
Selfish behavior (silo)Createsocial
problemsNeedcollaboration
Scenariosmayhappenin
future
HappyEnding&
Tragedy
S
i
m
u
l
a
s
i
Strategytodevelop
collaboration:
Positionsnecessary
Emotion
Stakeholderwhoneed
activelytakearole
I
d
e
n
t
i
f
i
k
a
s
i
P
o
l
a
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Interview
Interactionmodel
amongstakeholders:
1. Position
2. Interest
3. Dilema
4. Emotion
DramaTheory
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Interactionmodelamongconsumersinairlineservices
Consumers need to select airline suitable for them when
IEEETransactionsonSystems,Man,andCybernetics,30(5)
A chapterinAgentbasedapproachesinEconomicsand
SocialComplexSystemsIV,Springer
Example Example::
Browsingsosial mediavia online or
Facetofaceaskingato friendsabouttheirexperiencesinusingairline
providers.
Consumersneedtoselectairlinesuitableforthemwhen
theyneedtotravel
45
p
45 45
Facetoface SocialMedia
Commonundertanding oneachsidesexpectation
increasesservicesatisfaction
Communication
Style
CoExperience
Maybeinconsistent
Consumerperception
(Ekspectation onprovidersservice)
Providersperception
(Expectationonservice
neededbyconsumers)
Consumer
Provider
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AdaptiveLearningModelusingGenetic
Algorithm
Interaction
among
Ratio of customerwho know provider
C t i il it among
consumers
Selection
Crossover
GA
Operators
Stopping
Criterion
Satisfied?
Present
The best
Individual
of end
population
Yes
Roulette
Wheel
Communicationstyle:
Facetofaceand
socialmedia
Customerssimilarity
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No
Dynamically
changing
One-point
crossover
Customer
Consumer
Parameter:
Learningefficiency
Learningperformance
SimulationResults
Hypothesis:
Ifconsumersperceptionsarediversethensocialmediaisanefficientwayto
d t d id
15
20
25
30
35
40
A
v
e
ra
g
e
D
is
ta
n
c
e
D istance M atrix betw een C ustom er and Provider:Social-M edia B ased (SN S) and Face-to-face

understandprovider.
Hypothesisisaccepted
p
e
r
s
e
p
s
i
d
e
n
g
a
n
p
r
o
v
i
d
e
r
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
0
5
10
G eneration

Face-to-face(50 custom ers)
Social-M edia B ased (1000 custom ers)
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Socialmedia
P
e
r
b
e
d
a
a
n
p
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ThankYou