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The Spark
(914) 381-6300 F (914) 381-6303 December 18, 2009

EPA Memo-Cogen’s Energy Price Commentary & Technical Research

atural Gas & Electricity

Both Natural Gas and PJM Electricity surged yesterday after the surprisingly large net-movement of Natural Gas out of storage re-
ported as 207 bcf vs. the estimate of 170-175 bcf. However, despite the large drop in storage levels, storage levels still remain more
than 12% above the 5 year maximum storage level, indicating that the market will need weeks of significant withdrawals to alleviate
the near glut levels of supplies that have been built this year. According to the latest reports from the EIA, total storage levels are
only expected to drop a moderate amount, which would leave storage levels at a new record as next year's injection season begins.
Technically, we have had strong bullish moves in our charts especially in the short end of the curve. What is significant to note how-
ever, is that the charts have not eclipsed their October highs, and we have seen no buy signals for the 1 year or 2 year strips in Natu-
ral Gas or Electric. Therefore, "The Spark's" opinion is to continue to be patient and not panic buy a strip at these levels.

Natural Gas Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.84 +.57 7.10
12 Month 6.04 +.50 9.00
24 Month 6.30 +.56 8.80

PJM Electric Strip Current Price* Price Target

6 Month 5.59¢ +.32 7.40
12 Month 5.87¢ +.33 8.40
24 Month 6.00¢ +.26 8.30

NJ SREC Current Price*

2010 $660

PJM Electric 1 Year Strip

*prices are a snapshot at time of composition. Price changes are on a publication over publication change.

This Newsletter is authored by Michael E. Mollin. Michael E. Mollin is the principal of M.E. Mollin & Company LLC a Registered Investment Advisor in
New York State. The information contained herein is believed to be reliable, however, Energy Portfolio Associates ("EPA") and M.E. Mollin & Company
LLC ("MEM") do not warrant it's completeness or accuracy. Quotes are estimates and are not guaranteed by either EPA or MEM. Neither EPA or MEM is
acting as your advisor and the decision to proceed with any transaction rest solely with you. Copyright 2009, M.E. Mollin & Company, LLC