Você está na página 1de 1


To: Interested Parties

From: Kiley & Company

Re: Results of New Hampshire Tracking Survey

Date: October 14, 2014

Between October 7 and 9, Kiley & Company interviewed a representative sample
of 600 New Hampshire voters likely to cast ballots in the November election.
Respondents were randomly selected from a NH voter file and were interviewed on both
landlines and cell phones. The party breakdown of the sample is: 31% Republican; 26%
Democrat; and 43% Independent/Other. The margin of error for these results is +/- 4%.

Key Findings

 Jeanne Shaheen has a 6-point lead over Scott Brown.

– Shaheen leads Brown, 50% to 44%. She enjoys a 15-point margin among
women, while losing men to Brown by only 4 points.
– Shaheen has solidified her Democratic base to an almost unheard-of extent:
she leads Brown 97% to 1% among Democrats. Brown is ahead of Shaheen
among Republicans by a more down-to-earth 82% to 14%.
– Shaheen is ahead of Brown among Independents, 48% to 41%.

 Shaheen continues to be more popular than Brown.

– Shaheen’s ratings are 52-45, compared to Brown’s 42-49.
– Among women, Shaheen’s ratings are +16 and Brown’s are -14.

 Shaheen is the overwhelming choice on several key dimensions.

– In direct comparisons, Shaheen enjoys enormous leads in several key areas:
 Would protect the rights of women (+37)
 Is committed to New Hampshire (+33)
 Is (not) too close to special interests (+26)
 Will protect Medicare/Social Security (+20)

 With three weeks to go, Jeanne Shaheen is in a much stronger position
than Scott Brown, as measured by share of the vote, personal popularity,
and comparisons on key traits.