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Innovative Research.
Superior Results.

POLLING MEMORANDUM

TO:

INDEPENDENT WOMENS VOICE

FROM:

CHRIS WILSON

SUBJECT:

LOUISIANA SENATE RUNOFF POLL

DATE:

NOVEMBER 28, 2014

A WPA poll of n=500 likely runoff voters conducted November 24-25, 2014 on behalf of
Independent Women's Voice shows that Bill Cassidy is solidly ahead of Mary Landrieu even if
she manages to substantially increase African American turnout.

Key Findings

Bill Cassidy has a 24 point lead over Mary Landrieu on the U.S. Senate ballot.

Ballot
Overall
Cassidy
57%
Landrieu
33%
Cassidy has the lead among all gender age groups and has a large lead among
Independent voters.
Ballot

Men
18-54

Men
55+

Women
18-54

Women
55+

Independents

Cassidy
Landrieu

56%
31%

61%
28%

61%
32%

50%
40%

67%
23%

Even record-high African American turnout wont be enough to make this a close
race.
o African Americans would need to make up 37% of the electorate (and vote for
Landrieu 95% to five percent) in order bring the race within six points.
o That would be a huge increase above the 2008 Presidential election (29% of
voters were African Americans) and even exceed the percentage that African
Americans make up of citizens of voting age (31%).

There is some evidence that Landrieus campaign is succeeding in narrowing the

gap, but not enough to win.
o Voters who have seen Landrieus not cool ad are only supporting Cassidy by
a ten-point margin (50% Cassidy versus 40% Landrieu).

Methodology

WPA Opinion Research conducted a statewide study of likely runoff voters. Respondents
were screened to ensure that they were not a member of the news media, a public relations
company, or a political campaign. The sample for this survey was stratified based on gender,
age, ethnicity, and geography. This methodology allows us to minimize post-survey
weighting which can reduce the reliability of survey results. Respondents were contacted
by phone via a live telephone operator interview November 24-25, 2014. Twenty-five percent
of the interviews were conducted to cell phones. The study has a sample size of 500 and a
margin of error equal to +4.4%.
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