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NMDC

NTPC

SAIL

OIL
INDIA

NTPC

SAIL

OIL
INDIA

Come One, Come All


To
The BIG SALE of Stocks
Buy at Attractive Valuations

DearInvestors,

COME ONE, COME ALL TO THE BIG SALE OF STOCKS: BUY AT ATTRACTIVE VALUATIONS

TheGovernmentofIndiahadrecentlyputonblocksaleincertaincompanieslikeNMDC,NTPC,SAIL,OilIndia,
etcinordertoraisefundstomeetthealarmingfiscaldeficitofIndiaandotherreasonssuchastomakethese
companiesmorecompliantwiththepublicshareholdingnormsmandatedbySEBI.TheGovernmenthasraised
almostINR24,000crorethroughthedivestmentprogrammeinFY13bysheddingitsstakeinsevencompanies
namedNMDC,NTPC,SAIL,Nalco,HindustanCopper,OilIndiaandRCF.
As we know, out of the above mentioned companies, some of the companies are bluechip companies with
soundbusinessmodel,strongfinancialsoverthepastyears,healthybalancesheetwithsoundcashbalanceand
possessgrowthvisibilityoverthecomingyears.
LookingatthesharpstockpricecollapseFundamentalshaveNOTdeterioratedequally
PriortotheOFS(Offerforsale),thesestockshadalreadycorrectedandreachedtothelevelsofthefloorprice,
thus, making the valuations attractive and riskreward favourable for the investors. Many believe that apart
from the weak market sentiments, the spree of divestment has been the major dampener for the downward
trajectoryinthesePSUstockprices.Hence,westronglybelievethatthefallinthestockpricesdoesnotjustify
the strong valuation. We think that some of these PSU stocks are good investments in for a long term
perspectivebecauseofstrongfundamentals,goodvolumegrowthvisibilityleadingtoimprovedtopline,lower
interest burden which paves way for higher earnings and huge cash balance which leaves scope for higher
dividendpayoutsandalsoscopeforleverage.
WhywasOFSaFiasco?
OnemajorcriticismoftheOFSroute,infact,wasthatitdidntencourageretailinvestors,astherewasneither
anyquota(minimum35percentinthecaseofInitialPublicOffer/FollowOnPublicOffer)noraspecialdiscount
for such investors. Moreover, it was not easy for retail investors to bid at auctions which is what the OFS
essentiallyislikeFIIsandotherinstitutions.Theconsolation,though,isthatretailinvestorscanstillbuythe
sharesofNMDC,NTPC,SAIL&OilIndiagiventhattheircurrentmarketpricesofINR130,INR144,INR61and
INR521(ason4thApril13)arerulingbeloworalmostequaltothelevelsatwhichtheyweredivested.
Hence,webelievethatWeakmarketsentimentscoupledwithanegativethoughtofNotakersforOFSand
LICbailingoutthesamehadledtocorrectioninthesestocks.AttheCMP,werecommendaBUYtothe
some of the selected stocks named NMDC, NTPC, SAIL and Oil India on back of its attractive valuations
justifiedinthereport.Webelievetheunwarrantedpessimismmaysoonlietorestandinvestorsarelikelyto
chasethesestockssoonerthanlater,justifiedbytheirattractivevaluations.

-25thApril2013

Analyst:NehaMajithia
nmajithia@microsec.in
+03330512176

MicrosecResearch

OFSDetails
FloorPrice
(INRpershare)

Discount()/
Premium(+)atCMP

Company

OFSDate

NMDCLtd

12thDec'12

147

138

NTPCLtd

7thFeb'13

145

NalcoLtd

15thMar'13

40

SAILLtd

22ndMar'13
1stFeb'13
23rdNov'12
8thMar'13

OilIndiaLtd
HindustanCopperLtd
RCFLtd

CMP

ClosingPrice
priortoOFS

Discount()/Premium(+)
offeredbyGovt.

6%

159

142

2%

33

18%

63

62

510

511

155
45

No.ofsharesoffered AmountRaised
(InCr)
(INRinCr)

8%

39.65

5829

152

5%

78.33

11358

44

10%

12.89

516

2%

64

2%

24.04

1515

0%

539

5%

6.01

3065

93

40%

266

42%

8.87

1375

37

18%

44

3%

6.70

302

Total

23958

Note:CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

ValuationBasedonOFSPrice

Floor
Price

Company

Mcap Mcap
(Based (Based
onOFS on
TTM
Price) CMP) Sales

CMP

EBITDA
Margin

NMDCLtd

147

138

54713

10090

7606

NTPCLtd

145

142 119558 117085

64118

16531

NalcoLtd

40

SAILLtd

58281

TTM
EBITDA

75.4%

TTM
PAT
TTM
PAT Margin EPS

P/E
(Based
P/E
onOFS (Based
Price) onCMP) BVPS

P/BV P/BV
(Based (Based
onOFS on
Price) CMP) ROE

EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
(Basedon (Basedon
OFSPrice)
CMP)

D/E

6520

64.6%

16.4

8.9

8.4

61.5

2.4

2.2

33.3%

5.0

4.5

25.8% 10931

17.0%

13.1

11.0

10.8

87.2

1.7

1.6

13.2%

9.6

9.4

0.7

9.3%

2.4

16.4

13.5

45.5

0.9

0.7

7.4%

7.8

5.5

0.0
0.4

33

10309

8505

6728

792

11.8%

629

0.0

63

62

26022

25609

45196

5377

11.9%

3301

7.3%

8.0

7.9

7.8

96.4

0.7

0.6

9.2%

6.8

6.7

OilIndiaLtd

510

511

30656

30716

8868

4260

48.0%

3270

36.9%

54.4

9.4

9.4 737.0

0.7

0.7

20.7%

4.6

4.6

0.0

HindustanCopperLtd

155

93

14341

8605

1493

432

29.0%

305

20.4%

3.3

46.8

28.1

15.1

10.3

6.2

25.1%

32.1

18.9

0.1

45

37

2483

2041

4578

494

10.8%

277

6.0%

5.0

9.0

7.4

39.4

1.1

0.9

11.9%

6.3

5.4

0.2

RCFLtd

Note:AllfiguresinINRCrores;CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

3yearForwardAnalysis
Sales

Company
CMP Mcap

FY12A

FY13E

EBITDA

FY14E

FY15E FY12A

FY13E

FY14E

PAT
FY15E FY12A

FY13E

PATMargin
FY14E

EPS

FY14E

FY15E FY12A

FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

9398

79.8%

75.0%

67.7%

73.6%

7265

7872

64.5%

64.3%

61.7%

61.6%

18.3

17.3

18.6

19.9

23.5%

24.5%

25.1%

25.8%

9813 10296 11516 12555

15.1%

14.4%

14.0%

13.9%

11.9

12.5

14.1

15.2

NalcoLtd

33

7922

1145

794

1143

1258

17.6%

11.6%

15.2%

15.9%

850

571

799

869

13.1%

8.3%

10.6%

11.0%

3.3

2.3

3.2

3.5

SAILLtd

62 25609 45685 45329 51391 58181

6424

5828

7338

9623

14.1%

12.9%

14.3%

16.5%

3545

2910

3206

4119

7.8%

6.4%

6.2%

7.1%

8.6

7.2

8.0

10.0

3814

4678

5504

5602

40.1%

45.4%

47.7%

44.7%

3469

3400

3928

4215

36.4%

33.0%

34.0%

33.6%

57.7

54.9

64.3

70.1

428

466

560

NA

12.3%

6.8%

7.2%

NA

249

276

332

NA

7.2%

4.0%

4.3%

NA

4.5

5.0

6.1

NA

FY15E

FY12A

FY13E

OilIndiaLtd

511 12287

9519 10314 11536 12535

RCFLtd

37

3473

2041

6823

7780

NA

7360

FY13E

138 54712.9 11261 10709 11924 12775


7511

6889

FY15E FY12A

142 117086 64958 71409 82249 90482 15233 17501 20640 23328
6843

8072

FY13E

NTPCLtd

6500

8036

FY15E FY12A

NMDCLtd

8505

8983

EBITDAMargin

FY14E

Note:AllfiguresinINRCrores;CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

3yearForwardAnalysisCont..
P/E(x)

Company
CMP

Mcap

FY12A

FY13E

NMDCLtd

138 54712.9

7.5

8.0

NTPCLtd

142 117086

BVPS

FY14E
7.4

FY15E
7.0

FY12A

FY13E

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY15E

FY12A

61.6

74.4

88.0

100.5

2.2

FY13E
1.9

EV/EBITDA(x)

FY14E
1.6

FY15E

FY12A

1.4

4.0

FY13E
3.8

FY14E
3.5

ROE(%)
FY14E

FY15E

3.2

33.1

25.0

22.3

20.6
13.9

11.9

11.4

10.1

9.3

90.1

97.8

106.2

114.3

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

11.5

9.1

7.7

6.8

13.8

13.2

13.8

NalcoLtd

33

8505

10.0

14.5

10.3

9.4

45.5

47

49

50.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

8.0

5.3

3.7

3.3

7.4

6.5

6.8

SAILLtd

62

25609

7.2

8.6

7.8

6.2

97.1

102.8

110.0

117.1

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

7.9

6.4

5.1

3.9

9.2

6.9

7.1

8.3

511

12287

8.9

9.3

7.9

7.3

295.1

329.4

369.2

411.4

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

4.7

3.8

3.2

3.1

20.8

17.3

17.9

17.9

37

2041

8.2

7.4

6.1

NA

39.3

43.5

48.8

NA

0.9

0.9

0.8

NA

9.0

5.9

4.9

NA

11.9

12.1

13.0

NA

OilIndiaLtd
RCFLtd

Note:AllfiguresinINRCrores;CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

-35thApril2013

MicrosecResearch

HistoricalAnalysis
Sales
Sales
PAT
PAT
P/E
P/BV
CAGR CAGR CAGR CAGR (Based P/E
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA (Based P/BV
P/BV P/BV
ROE
ROE
(Last10 (Last5 (Last10 (Last5 onOFS (Based P/E(Last P/E(Last (Basedon (Basedon (Last10
(Last5 onOFS (Based (Last10 (Last5 (Last10 (Last5
year)
year)
year)
year) price) onCMP) 10year) 5year) OFSPrice)
CMP)
year)
year)
price) onCMP) year)
year)
year)
year)

Company
NMDCLtd

24.9%

14.5%

36.8%

17.4%

8.9

8.4

17.7

23.2

5.0

4.5

9.8

13.4

2.4

2.2

5.9

7.7

NTPCLtd

13.2%

11.2%

10.5%

5.6%

11.0

10.8

17.5

18.0

9.6

9.4

9.4

11.7

1.7

1.6

2.3

2.5

13.7% 14.4%

NalcoLtd

9.8%

5.7%

5.0% 12.2%

16.4

13.5

9.6

14.0

7.8

5.5

7.0

8.9

0.9

0.7

2.3

2.1

18.9% 11.8%

NA 12.7%

35.2% 21.3%

SAILLtd

36.8% 37.8%

9.9%

3.0%

7.9

7.8

7.3

11.3

6.8

6.7

5.2

6.0

0.7

0.6

2.6

2.1

OilIndiaLtd

19.5%

23.1%

14.2%

14.2%

9.4

9.4

3.0

6.1

4.6

4.6

0.3

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.9

24.6% 22.5%

HindustanCopperLtd

13.1%

1.3%

NA

5.6%

46.8

28.1

81.4

188.2

32.1

18.9

9.8

13.4

10.3

6.2

5.9

7.7

15.6% 17.7%

RCFLtd

12.3%

4.6%

NA

9.5%

9.0

7.4

11.7

15.4

6.3

5.4

12.1

8.2

1.1

0.9

1.6

1.8

10.4% 12.3%

DomesticPeerComparison
EBITDAMargin

Company
CMP

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

PATMargin
FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

P/E(x)
FY15E FY12A FY13E

P/BV(x)

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

EV/EBITDA(x)

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

ROE(%)
FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

NMDCLtd

138 54713

79.8%

75.0%

67.7%

73.6%

64.5%

64.3%

61.7%

61.6%

7.5

8.0

7.4

7.0

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.4

4.0

3.8

3.5

3.2

33.1

25.0

22.3

SesaGoa

156 13558

42.4%

34.0%

29.3%

28.9%

32.6%

89.8%

49.3%

45.4%

5.0

5.3

5.1

4.7

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

5.7

17.3

10.3

9.2

15.0

17.0

16.2

16.4

6.3

6.6

6.3

5.8

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

4.8

10.5

6.9

6.2

24.1

21.0

19.3

18.5

Average
CMP

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

20.6

FY15E

NTPCLtd

142 117086

23.5%

24.5%

25.1%

25.8%

15.1%

14.4%

14.0%

13.9%

11.9

11.4

10.1

9.3

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

11.5

9.1

7.7

6.8

13.8

13.2

13.8

PowerGrid

106 49075

85.1%

85.4%

86.0%

86.2%

32.4%

31.8%

30.9%

30.2%

15.1

12.1

10.6

9.2

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.5

11.6

9.4

7.7

6.5

14.5

15.8

16.1

16.5

CESC

265

3325

17.7%

15.6%

17.4%

20.6%

4.2%

5.0%

5.7%

7.0%

12.2

9.9

7.7

5.5

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

7.1

7.2

5.7

4.0

5.2

6.5

7.5

10.8

96 22709

TataPowerCo.
TorrentPower

20.7%

20.4%

21.0%

21.1%

4.2%

3.7%

3.8%

4.5%

20.9

19.3

16.5

13.5

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

10.3

8.6

7.2

6.7

8.7

9.7

10.2

11.5

6615

31.4%

19.7%

22.0%

25.3%

16.7%

7.3%

9.4%

12.1%

5.3

11.3

7.7

5.3

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.8

5.8

7.8

6.1

4.7

23.8

9.8

13.7

16.3

62 17392

31.0%

38.3%

43.8%

44.6%

42.9%

21.0%

14.7%

14.8%

20.1

17.4

16.8

10.4

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

72.7

19.3

11.2

6.9

5.0

5.5

5.5

8.3

7.3

13.6

11.5

8.9

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.1

19.8

10.2

7.6

6.0

8.9

10.1

11.1

12.9

140

ReliancePower

13.9

Average
CMP

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E

NalcoLtd

33

8505

17.6%

11.6%

15.2%

15.9%

13.1%

8.3%

10.6%

11.0%

10.0

14.5

10.3

9.4

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

8.0

5.3

3.7

3.3

7.4

6.5

HindalcoLtd

92 17616

9.5%

10.0%

10.6%

11.2%

4.2%

3.5%

3.4%

3.5%

5.2

6.4

6.0

5.3

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.5

7.7

6.4

5.5

4.8

11.2

8.6

8.4

8.9

SterliteIndustriesLtd

94 31595

24.8%

23.8%

25.4%

25.9%

11.8%

13.2%

13.7%

14.3%

6.5

5.5

4.9

4.5

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

4.0

3.6

3.1

2.8

11.0

11.3

11.5

11.6

7.2

8.8

6.4

0.7

0.6

0.5

6.6

5.1

3.6

9.9

8.3

Average
CMP

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

7.1
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

0.6
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

4.1
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

8.8
FY14E

6.8

9.1
FY15E

SAILLtd

62 25609

14.1%

12.9%

14.3%

16.5%

7.8%

6.4%

6.2%

7.1%

7.2

8.6

7.8

6.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

7.9

6.4

5.1

3.9

9.2

6.9

7.1

8.3

TataSteel

312 101987

9.4%

9.1%

11.1%

11.6%

4.1%

1.2%

2.7%

3.2%

5.7

17.7

8.1

6.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

7.7

6.3

4.9

4.5

13.7

3.1

8.6

10.0

JindalSteel&PowerLtd

348 32531

39.0%

35.9%

35.1%

35.4%

21.8%

19.8%

18.0%

16.3%

8.2

8.4

8.0

7.3

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.1

9.6

7.4

6.6

5.4

24.6

18.5

17.4

16.5

JSWSteelLtd

671 37791

17.9%

17.0%

17.7%

17.6%

1.6%

4.0%

4.7%

5.1%

29.6

9.8

7.9

6.9

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.7

5.7

4.3

3.9

3.6

3.3

8.9

10.5

11.0

BhushanSteelLtd

458 29374

32.3%

29.9%

29.1%

29.4%

10.5%

8.9%

8.7%

9.5%

9.7

9.7

7.7

5.7

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

9.6

9.2

7.3

5.9

14.8

12.5

13.8

15.8

12.1

10.8

6.6

1.1

1.0

0.8

8.1

6.7

4.7

13.1

10.0

Average
CMP

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

7.9
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

0.9
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

5.5
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

11.5
FY14E

12.3
FY15E

OilIndiaLtd

511 12287

40.1%

45.4%

47.7%

44.7%

36.4%

33.0%

34.0%

33.6%

8.9

9.3

7.9

7.3

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

4.7

3.8

3.2

3.1

20.8

17.3

17.9

17.9

ONGC

312 266932

33.9%

34.9%

37.0%

38.7%

19.2%

16.0%

17.1%

18.3%

9.5

10.6

9.1

7.8

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

4.4

4.5

4.0

3.5

22.4

17.2

17.8

18.7

HPCLLtd

285

9662

2.3%

2.5%

2.7%

2.7%

0.1%

0.5%

0.7%

0.7%

55.2

10.6

7.2

6.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

10.4

8.5

8.0

7.4

1.3

6.5

9.8

10.0

CairnindiaLtd

272 51881

80.0%

71.2%

66.3%

61.7%

66.9%

60.7%

54.0%

50.1%

6.5

4.5

5.1

5.4

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

5.9

3.0

3.2

3.4

17.9

21.5

16.4

14.1

20.0

8.7

6.8

1.4

1.2

1.0

6.4

4.9

4.3

15.6

15.6

Average
CMP
RCFLtd
TataChemicalsLtd

Mcap

FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

7.3
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

1.1
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

4.6
FY14E

FY15E FY12A FY13E

15.5
FY14E

15.1
FY15E

37

2041

12.3%

6.8%

7.2%

NA

7.2%

4.0%

4.3%

NA

8.2

7.4

6.1

NA

0.9

0.9

0.8

NA

9.0

5.9

4.9

NA

11.9

12.1

13.0

NA

322

8205

17.1%

15.5%

22.3%

16.0%

7.3%

5.9%

6.4%

6.8%

8.3

9.6

8.4

7.8

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.0

6.2

6.1

5.6

5.3

14.1

13.2

17.8

13.7

RallisIndiaLtd

115

2230

16.5%

15.1%

16.0%

17.0%

8.0%

8.7%

9.7%

10.4%

22.5

17.9

13.8

11.5

4.0

3.6

3.1

2.6

12.2

11.1

9.04

7.5

18.8

20.4

23.1

24.6

CoromandelInternationalLtd

185

5228

12.4%

9.2%

10.1%

10.2%

6.5%

5.6%

6.0%

6.2%

8.2

10.6

7.9

6.5

2.2

2.1

1.8

1.5

8.2

9.0

6.8

5.7

29.3

19.6

24.4

25.1

11.8

11.4

9.1

8.6

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.7

8.9

8.0

6.6

6.2

18.5

16.3

19.6

21.1

Average
Note:CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

-45thApril2013

MicrosecResearch

GlobalPeerComparison
Company

EBITDAMargin

P/E(x)

PATMargin

P/BV(x)

EV/EBITDA(x)

ROE(%)

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
NMDCLtd

ValeSaPrefA

9991 79.8% 75.0% 67.7% 73.6% 64.5% 64.3% 61.7% 61.6%

7.5

8.0

7.4

7.0

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.4

4.0

3.8

3.5

3.2

33.1

25.0

22.3

20.6

16 56149 37.8% 45.1% 42.1% 42.0% 24.1% 24.7% 23.8% 20.5%

7.5

7.3

7.4

7.9

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

5.8

5.5

5.4

5.4

6.6

14.3

13.5

12.0

RioTintoltd

60 25920 30.4% 37.7% 38.9% 39.6% 18.3% 18.8% 19.6% 19.6%

11.8

10.0

8.8

8.7

2.3

1.9

1.6

1.5

6.0

5.6

5.1

4.8

6.0

20.6

19.5

18.4

BHPBilliton

34 109413 46.3% 42.8% 45.8% 33.8% 23.7% 19.5% 22.4% 22.6%

10.6

13.3

11.2

10.3

2.7

2.5

2.2

1.9

7.5

7.0

5.9

5.5

25.1

18.8

20.3

18.9

9.4

9.6

8.7

8.5

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.4

5.8

5.4

5.0

4.7

14.7

19.7

18.9

17.5

Average

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
NTPCLtd

3 21777 23.5% 24.5% 25.1% 25.8% 15.1% 14.4% 14.0% 13.9%

11.9

11.4

10.1

9.3

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

11.5

9.1

7.7

6.8

13.8

13.2

13.8

13.9

ChinaResourcesPowerHoldingsCoLtd

3 14287 29.3% 32.4% 32.3% 33.0% 11.9% 12.8% 12.7% 13.0%

15.0

12.0

10.7

9.6

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

10.1

8.5

7.7

6.8

14.7

15.6

15.6

16.0

PowerAssetsHoldingsLtd

9 20137 66.7% 79.4% 79.6% 82.6% 93.4% 93.9% 95.5% 96.9%

16.0

15.5

14.9

14.8

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.9

23.0

20.4

20.0

19.4

16.1

15.5

15.1

13.8

HuanengPowerInternationalInc

15.3

10.7

9.7

7.9

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.2

7.3

6.4

6.1

5.5

11.0

15.0

14.8

16.2

14.5

12.4

11.3

10.4

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

13.0

11.1

10.4

9.6

13.9

14.8

14.8

15.0

3791 21.8% 24.1% 24.0% 25.2%

4.4%

6.1%

6.3%

7.2%

Average

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
NalcoLtd

AlcoaInc

1618 17.6% 11.6% 15.2% 15.9% 13.1%


911

8.3% 10.6% 11.0%

10.0

14.5

10.3

9.4

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

8.0

5.3

3.7

3.3

7.4

6.5

6.8

8.5% 12.3% 13.5% 13.7%

1.1%

2.8%

35.5

14.9

9.9

9.3

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

9.7

6.4

5.5

5.4

1.4

5.0

6.3

6.6

2.5%

7.9% 10.5% 14.1%

10.2

UnitedCo.RUSAL

761 11.2% 11.2% 12.5% 16.7%

AluminiumCropofChina

778

NA

4.7%

5.7%

3.9%

7.1% 0.6% 2.2% 1.1%

4.1%
0.6%

Average

NA

8.3

6.3

4.5

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.5

NA

14.7

12.5

8.6

0.5

6.1

8.2

3.9

9.8

39.0

39.0

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.7

NA

22.5

17.8

13.7

17.2

6.9

5.1

4.6

13.9

7.0

3.1

15.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.6

8.8

12.2

9.9

7.8

2.2

2.3

4.0

7.0

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
SAILLtd

POSCOLtd

4776 14.1% 12.9% 14.3% 16.5%

293 25278

7.8%

6.4%

6.2%

7.1%

7.2

8.6

7.8

6.2

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.5

7.9

6.4

5.1

3.9

9.2

6.9

7.1

9.8% 10.6% 11.0% 11.3%

3.8%

4.4%

4.6%

4.7%

12.2

9.7

8.5

8.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

7.8

7.2

6.6

6.3

6.3

6.9

7.3

7.0

1.4% 3.3%

3.5%

4.2%

21.1

14.1

11.9

10.0

0.7

1.0

0.9

1.0

8.7

14.8

8.5

7.7

3.2

3.9

7.5

8.7

9.3% 10.2% 0.8% 1.9%

0.4%

1.1%

19.5

10.2

43.3

17.2

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

7.1

9.9

7.4

6.6

2.7

6.2

1.9

3.9

5.3

1.5

17.9

10.3

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

7.9

9.6

6.9

6.1

4.0

0.9

5.9

7.0

Nipponsteel

2 23457

8.9%

8.0% 11.6% 12.6%

KobeSteel

9.6%

7.2%

3645

Average

8.3

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
OilIndiaLtd

10

ExxonMobil

90 403733 13.6% 18.7% 18.6% 20.0%

ChevronCorp.

5746 40.1% 45.4% 47.7% 44.7% 36.4% 33.0% 34.0% 33.6%


7.3%

8.0%

8.2%

119 230831 21.0% 23.6% 24.5% 23.6% 10.7% 10.0% 10.5%

PetroChina

1 226099 14.8% 14.8% 14.5% 14.4%

5.3%

5.4%

5.5%

8.5%

8.9

9.3

7.9

7.3

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

4.7

3.8

3.2

3.1

20.8

17.3

17.9

17.9

11.9

11.3

10.8

9.7

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.8

6.0

5.1

5.0

4.7

28.0

21.2

19.7

19.0

9.8%

9.4

9.6

9.5

9.0

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.7

20.3

16.7

16.0

14.4

5.0%

13.9

13.9

11.6

11.7

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.2

6.7

5.9

5.7

5.9

11.2

10.8

10.9

10.9

11.0

11.0

10.0

9.4

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.4

5.4

4.7

4.5

4.4

20.1

16.5

16.1

15.5

Average

CMP Mcap FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E FY12A FY13E FY14E FY15E
RCFLtd

AgriumInc
YaraInternationalInc
CFIndustriesHoldingCo.

NA

7.2%

4.0%

4.3%

NA

8.2

7.4

6.1

NA

0.9

0.9

0.8

NA

9.0

5.9

4.9

NA

11.9

12.1

13.0

NA

97 14546 16.3% 15.6% 14.9% 14.8%

380 12.3%

6.8%

7.2%

8.9%

8.6%

8.2%

8.0%

10.3

9.8

9.8

9.4

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.4

6.7

6.5

6.5

6.3

22.4

19.1

16.5

15.6

45 12905 17.4% 17.4% 16.4% 16.3% 12.5% 10.8% 10.8% 10.0%

7.1

8.1

8.3

8.0

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.2

5.52

5.28

5.51

5.3

22.9

17.5

14.9

14.3

190 11994 54.6% 51.2% 47.6% 47.5% 29.6% 26.7% 24.6% 23.2%

6.8

7.4

8.2

8.0

2.0

1.6

1.4

1.2

3.8

3.8

4.3

4.3

35.4

24.2

18.2

15.3

8.1

8.1

8.1

8.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.2

6.2

5.4

5.3

5.3

23.1

18.2

15.7

15.1

Average
Note:CMPrepresentsclosingpriceason31stMarch,2013

-55thApril2013

MicrosecResearch

MicrosecResearch:PhoneNo.:913330512100Email:microsec_research@microsec.in

AjayJaiswal:President,InvestmentStrategies,HeadofResearch:ajaiswal@microsec.in

FundamentalResearch

Name

Sectors

Designation

EmailID

NitinPrakashDaga

IT,Telecom&Entertainment

AVPResearch

npdaga@microsec.in

NaveenVyas

Midcaps,MarketStrategies

AVPResearch

nvyas@microsec.in

GargiDeb

Agriculture&Pharma

ResearchAnalyst

gdeb@microsec.in

SutapaRoy

Economy

ResearchAnalyst

sroy@microsec.in

SanjeevJain

BFSI

ResearchAnalyst

sjain@microsec.in

AnikDas

MidCap

ResearchAnalyst

adas4@microsec.in

NehaMajithia

MidCap

ResearchAnalyst

nmajithia@microsec.in

SoumyadipRaha

MidCap

ExecutiveResearch

sraha@microsec.in

SarojSingh

MidCap

ExecutiveResearch

ssingh2@microsec.in

KapilBhati

MidCap

AssociateResearchExecutive

kbhati@microsec.in

Technical&DerivativeResearch

VinitPagaria

Derivatives&Technical

VP

vpagaria@microsec.in

RanajitSaha

TechnicalResearch

Sr.Manager

rksaha@microsec.in

InstitutionalDesk

DhruvaMittal

InstitutionalEquities

Sr.Manager

dmittal@microsec.in

PujaShah

InstitutionalDesk

Dealer

pdshah@microsec.in

PMSDivision
SiddharthSedani

PMSResearch

AVP

ssedani@microsec.in

KetanMehta

PMSSales

AVP

ksmehta@microsec.in

Research:FinancialPlanningDivision
ShrivardhanKedia

FPDProducts

ManagerResearch

skedia@microsec.in

ResearchSupport
SubhabrataBoral

ResearchSupport

Asst.ManagerTechnology

Recommendation

Expectedabsolutereturns(%)over12months

StrongBuy

>20%

Buy

between10%and20%

Hold

between0%and10%

Underperform

between0%and10%

Sell

<10%

sboral@microsec.in

MICROSECRESEARCHISALSOACCESSIBLEONBLOOMBERGAT<MCLI>
-65thApril2013

MicrosecResearch

-75thApril2013

MicrosecResearch

Disclaimer:
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