Global climate change on a small scale:

Effects of temperature and precipitation variation

on crop yields

To:
National Science Foundation
23 November 2014

By:
Jeffrey L. Horgan
Geography
&
Geographic Information Systems
University of Idaho
Department of Geography

Abstract:
Has climate change affected crop yields in northern Idaho? This project seeks to answer this
question by compiling and analyzing temperature and precipitation data from 1980 to 2010 to
determine any correlations that may exist between these elements and crop yields. Research in
other parts of the United States seem to support the correlation between climate and crop yield
and this study seeks to validate that hypothesis for northern Idaho*.

*Counties included in the study: Benewah, Boundary, Clearwater, Kootenai, Latah, Nez Perce, & Shoshone

Overview & Objective

I will perform research to determine the relationship between climate change and crop yields in
northern Idaho. This study will use temperature and precipitation fluctuations as indicators of
climate change. I hypothesize the change in temperature and precipitation has affected the crop
yield depending on the type of crop planted. Research has been published showing climate
change is occurring and is effecting the global food supply. My research will be part of a greater
project aimed at determining the overall effect of climate change in northern Idaho.
Literature Review:
In studying other research on this topic, three studies emerge as relevant to the hypothesis of this
research project and are summarized below.
According to Rosensweig and Parry (1994), ...the increase in global carbon dioxide
concentration will lead only to small decrease in global crop production. Their research
describes that while developing countries will not suffer, undeveloped be more affected by the
increase in carbon dioxide concentration. They gathered temperature and precipitation data for
regional and national farm areas and compared projected carbon dioxide levels to create climate
change scenarios for each study site. Based on their findings, they concluded global climate
change through increased levels of carbon dioxide would not affect developed countries
significantly. (Pg. 4)
Schlenker and Roberts conducted research comparing temperature increase and its effect on crop
yields in the United States. They compiled data regarding the three most planted crops in the
U.S.: soybeans, corn, and cotton. They found that the yield growth increases gradually with a
temperature increase and then sharply declines past a certain temperature threshold. They
determined that crop yields could decrease by 30-46% if the slowest warming model was used
and a 63-82% decrease if the fastest scenario was used. (Schlenker & Roberts, 2009)
Lobell and Field found the following:
For wheat, maize and barley, negative yield impacts of the 1980s
and 19902002 indicate that recent climate trends have, unless
addressed through adaptation measures, suppressed global yield
progress for these three crops. Effects are less pronounced for
other crops and decades, though with significant yield suppression
of soybean and sorghum since 1990, and wheat in the 1970s. All
instances of significant yield effects were attributable mainly to

warming temperature trends, as precipitation trends had only minor

effects on yields. (Lobell & Field, 2007)
The research cited above indicates that the relationship between climate change and crop
production has been studied and results seem to indicate a potential correlation. Fluctuations in
precipitation and temperature have a marked effect on crop yields on a national and global scale.
This research warrants conducting a study involving precipitation, temperature, and crop yields
on a local scale.
Design & Methodology
My role is that of a research assistant. I will be assisting Associate Professor Dr. Herbert G.
Wells. Dr. Wells will be overseeing the overall project. My duties will include gathering data,
preparing models for comparison, and conducting interviews with agricultural experts to gather
available data. In addition, I will perform statistical analyses on the data and prepare reports
documenting our findings.
Using the ArcGIS subsidiary ArcMap, I will create geographic information system (GIS) maps
detailing the change in precipitation and temperature in northern Idaho between 1980 and 2010.
I will compare this data to crop yield and crop price data in the area. Data will be compiled from
the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Climatic Data Center.
Timeline
Project Start Date: 1 June 2015
June: Experiment design

Week 1: Generate experiment framework

Week 2: Troubleshoot experiment design
Week 3: Consult Dr. Wells on experiment design
Week 4: Finalize experiment design

July: Data Compilation and Initial Analysis

Week 1: Compile local climate data

Week 2: Compile local crop data
Week 3: Analyze data sets to determine if correlation exists
Week 4: Review potential correlation with Dr. Wells

August: Continued Data Analysis and Preparation of Results

Week 1: Create GIS maps with collected data

Week 2: Complete functional crop yield and economic impact maps
Week 3: Draft results report and review with Dr. Wells
Week 4: Create result summary report

Preparation
My combination of education and personal qualities make me qualified to assist with this
research project. I have working knowledge of ArcGIS software. Specifically, I have
competency in analyzing data in ArcMap using spatial analysis tools. I have been studying
Geography and am completing my Geographic Information Systems Certificate concurrently. I
have a strong work ethic, and excellent problem solving and critical thinking skills. I am
organized, and have an eye for detail and precision.
Dr. Wells, has been part of several research projects related to climate change and its effects on
global economics and politics. In addition, he has multiple contacts from previous research
projects and can access additional long term data relating to this project.
Line-item budget:
Salary: $4,320 ($9.00/hour)
One (1) research assistant working 40 hours per week for 12 weeks
Software: $100
ArcMap software license
Miscellaneous expenses: $180
Printing cost for final results
Large map printout
Office Supplies
Total Expenses: $4,600

References
Lobell, D. B., & Field, C. B. (2007). Global scale climate-crop yield relationships and the
impacts of recent warming. Retrieved from IOP Publishing website:
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/2/1/014002/pdf/1748-9326_2_1_014002.pdf
Rosensweig, C., & Parry, M. L. (1994). Potential impact of climate change on world food
supply. Retrieved from Nature Publishing Group website: http://ecoethics.net/cyprusinstitute.us/PDF/Rosensweig-Food-Supply.pdf
Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe
damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Retrieved from Proceedings for the
National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America website:
http://www.pnas.org/content/106/37/15594.full