INTRODUO

TEORIA DA DECISO
AUTOR: LUS FERNANDO SCHUARTZ

3 EDIO

ROTEIRO DE CURSO
2010.1

Sumrio

Introduo Teoria da Deciso

1. INTRODUO ............................................................................................................................................................................04
2. AULA 1 - O DIREITO E AS SUAS CONSEQNCIAS ..........................................................................................................................05
3. AULA 2 - DISCUSSO DO CASO GROOT BOOM .............................................................................................................................18
4. AULA 3 - ELEMENTOS DE TEORIA DA DECISO ..............................................................................................................................33
5. AULAS 4-5 - DECISES SOB INCERTEZA ........................................................................................................................................37
6. AULAS 6-7 - DA DECISO INDIVIDUAL DECISO INTERATIVA .......................................................................................................43
7. AULAS 8-9 - SOLUO DE JOGOS NA FORMA NORMAL: DOMINNCIA E EQUILBRIO DE NASH ...........................................................51
8. AULA 10

..............................................................................................................................................................................56

9. AULA 11. EQUILBRIO DE NASH PERFEITO EM SUBJOGOS ..............................................................................................................80

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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DECISO

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8

introduo teoria da Deciso

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9

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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DECISO

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FGV'(7
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10

10

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
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INTRODUO
TEORIA DA
DECISO

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FGV'(7
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11

11

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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TEORIA DA
DECISO

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FGV DIREITO RIO

FGV'(7
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DIREITO RIO

12

12

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
ESTRATGICO
INTRODUO
TEORIA DA
DECISO

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13

13

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
ESTRATGICO
INTRODUO
TEORIA DA
DECISO

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14

14

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
ESTRATGICO
INTRODUO
TEORIA DA
DECISO

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introduo teoria da Deciso

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introduo teoria da Deciso

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18

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introduo teoria da Deciso

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20

20

introduo teoria da Deciso

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DECISO

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FGV DIREITO RIO

FGV'(7
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24

24

introduo teoria da Deciso

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25

25

introduo teoria da Deciso

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FGV DIREITO RIO

FGV'(7
%*3&*50
3*0
DIREITO RIO

26

26

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
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DECISO

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34

34

introduo teoria da Deciso

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35

35

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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36

36

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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introduo teoria da Deciso

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39

39

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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FGV'(7
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40

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introduo teoria da Deciso

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introduo teoria da Deciso

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43

introduo teoria da Deciso

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44

44

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
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DECISO

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45

45

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
ESTRATGICO
INTRODUO
TEORIA DA
DECISO



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46

46

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
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DECISO

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FGV'(7
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3*0
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47

47

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
ESTRATGICO
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DECISO

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48

48

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
AO PENSAMENTO
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DECISO

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FGV'(7
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49

49

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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TEORIA DA
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56

56

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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57

introduo teoria da Deciso

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FGV'(7
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65

65

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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FGV'(7
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66

66

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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DECISO

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72

72

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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73

73

introduo teoria da Deciso

INTRODUO
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DECISO

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AULA 11
Equilbrio de Nash Perfeito em Subjogos
Na aula de hoje estudaremos o principal refinamento do conceito de equilbrio de Nash, a saber, o conceito
de equilbrio de Nash perfeito em subjogos. Para repeti-lo mais uma vez: um conceito de soluo refere-se a
um mtodo para identificar qual seria o resultado provvel de um jogo dado um conjunto de hipteses sobre a
racionalidade e o conhecimento dos jogadores. Em vrias situaes, podemos assumir que esse resultado provvel est na combinao de decises em que consiste o equilbrio de Nash do jogo em questo: se um jogador 1
espera que o jogador 2 jogar sua parte no equilbrio, vimos que a melhor resposta de 1 ser jogar a sua parte
no equilbrio, o mesmo valendo para o jogador 2.
Acontece que h situaes nas quais saber que um jogador jogar a sua parte em algum equilbrio de Nash
no suficiente para garantir uma boa predio em relao a qual o resultado provvel do jogo. A razo que,
nestas situaes, h equilbrios que no so razoveis de esperar enquanto combinao de decises de jogadores
racionais, mais precisamente, que se apiam em ameaas ou promessas no crveis. Para um primeiro exemplo
do que isso significa, veja o jogo que est representado nas Figuras 24, 25 e 26 abaixo:

, 25 E 26 ABAIXO:

Figura 24

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Figura 25

Figura 26

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Nesse exemplo, o equilbrio de Nash caracterizado pelo par (No Entra, Luta) se baseia em uma ameaa no
crvel por parte do Incumbente: Se voc, Entrante, resolver entrar no mercado, eu, Incumbente, vou lutar, o que
gerar para voc uma perda de 100 reais. Essa ameaa no crvel porque, caso o Entrante de fato entre, ser melhor
para o Incumbente acomodar, pois acomodando ele ganha $500, ao passo que lutando o ganho de apenas $200.
Acho que todos ns concordaramos que, em razo disso, (No Entra, Luta) no uma boa predio em
relao ao resultado desse jogo e portanto, em relao ao que ir ocorrer na situao econmica que o jogo pretende descrever. Ora, mas se o conceito de equilbrio de Nash no suficiente para excluir esse tipo de resultado
irrazovel, ento precisamos de um outro conceito de soluo que nos permita eliminar resultados como este.
Em outras palavras, precisamos refinar o conceito de equilbrio de Nash. Pois bem, esse conceito de soluo que
estamos buscando precisamente o de equilbrio de Nash perfeito em subjogos.
O conceito de equilbrio de Nash perfeito em subjogos no o nico refinamento do conceito de equilbrio
de Nash existente em teoria dos jogos (na verdade, h muitos outros!), mas certamente o mais conhecido e
menos controverso. O equilbrio de Nash perfeito em jogos , como o nome diz, um equilbrio de Nash, ou
seja, ele pertence ao conjunto dos equilbrio de Nash do jogo em questo. Mas ele ainda mais que isso: um
equilbrio de Nash perfeito em subjogos tem a propriedade de induzir um equilbrio de Nash em cada um e
todos os subjogos do jogo e isso suficiente para eliminarmos os equilbrios de Nash suportados em ameaas
e promessas no crveis, como veremos em um exemplo logo abaixo.
Antes de chegarmos l, no entanto, precisamos definir o conceito de subjogo, que aparece na definio de
equilbrio de Nash perfeito em subjogos (que, de aqui em diante, ser abreviado para ENPS). Intuitivamente,
um subjogo de um jogo extensivo um jogo dentro de um jogo. Ou seja, tal como ocorre com o jogo
completo (o qual um subjogo de si prprio), um subjogo comea em um n inicial N0 que nico. Alm
disso, cada um dos ns de deciso que pertencem ao subjogo pode ser conectado ao n inicial a partir de um
nico caminho. Adicionalmente, tal como um jogo, o subjogo deve possuir ns terminais (i.e., ns que no tm
sucessores) e payoffs para os jogadores associados a cada possvel combinao de jogadas dos jogadores chamados
a jogar (i.e., cada possvel trajetria). Finalmente, para jogos com informao imperfeita, no pode ocorrer
de um determinado conjunto de informao ser cortado, vale dizer, de um dado n de deciso n pertencer
ao subjogo e algum dos ns de deciso, que pertence ao mesmo conjunto de informao que n, no pertencer
ao subjogo. Olhe as Figuras 27, 28 e 29 abaixo teste o seu entendimento a respeito do conceito de subjogo
(aproveite e tente identificar todos os subjogos do jogo em questo, bem como do jogo da Figura 24 acima,
recordando que o jogo um subjogo de si prprio).

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Figura 27

Figura 28

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Figura 29

Pois bem, viu-se que, dado um jogo qualquer G, um ENPS induz um equilbrio de Nash em cada subjogo
de G. O qu quer dizer isso? Voltemos ao jogo da Figura 24, reproduzido abaixo na Figura 30.

Figura 30

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Esse jogo possui dois subjogos: o prprio jogo e o jogo que comea com o n de deciso do Incumbente.
Qual o ENPS do jogo? Bem, de acordo com a definio, o ENPS induz um equilbrio de Nash em cada subjogo.
Vimos que (No Entra, Luta) equilbrio de Nash do jogo como um todo. Mas ser ele tambm um ENPS?
No. Por qu? Pois, se fosse, ento deveria ser o caso de ele induzir um equilbrio de Nash tambm no subjogo
que inicia no n de deciso do Incumbente. Ocorre que esse no o caso, pois a deciso de lutar estritamente
dominada pela deciso de acomodar, e um equilbrio de Nash no pode conter uma estratgia que estritamente
dominada por outra estratgia possvel. Ou seja, (No Entra, Luta) no um ENPS. O jogo, porm, possui um
nico ENPS, que (Entra, Acomoda) (verifique!). Note que j havamos concludo que (No Entra, Luta)
no seria uma predio razovel para o resultado provvel do jogo da Figura 24. Agora, podemos usar o conceito
de ENPS para elimin-lo, uma vez que esse conceito funciona como uma espcie de filtro que apenas deixa passar os equilbrios de Nash baseados em ameaas ou promessas crveis. Tambm diremos que se trata de equilbrio
que resiste a uma forma mais sofisticada de racionalidade estratgica, que chamaremos racionalidade seqencial.
Para um exemplo de identificao de ENPS em jogo com informao imperfeita, ver Figuras 31-35 abaixo:

Figura 31

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Figura 32

Figura 33

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Figura 34

Figura 35

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Antes de encerrarmos a aula de hoje, veremos uma tcnica extremamente simples para identificarmos os
ENPS em jogos com informao perfeita. Trata-se do mtodo da induo retroativa. O mtodo se baseia na
suposio da referida acima racionalidade seqencial dos jogadores num jogo na forma extensiva. Dizer que
um jogador racional neste sentido, i.e., que ele sequencialmente racional, significa dizer que ele decide de
a maximizar as suas preferncias toda vez que chamado a jogar, vale dizer, em cada n de deciso inclusive
naqueles que no sero alcanados caso ele siga um determinado plano de ao! Considere, por exemplo, o jogo
da centopia, representado na Figura 36 abaixo:

Figura 36

Imagine que a estratgia do jogador 1 seja NB, i.e., escolher N no primeiro n de deciso e escolher A no
seu segundo n de deciso (lembre-se que uma estratgia em um jogo na forma extensiva um plano completo
de ao, que diz o que o jogador deveria fazer em cada um dos seus ns de deciso). Ora, aps o jogador 1
escolher N, o jogo ir terminar sem que o segundo n de deciso do jogador 1 venha a ser alcanado. Noutras
palavras, os payoffs (1,1) sero distribudos independentemente do que as estratgias de 1 e 2 estabeleam que eles
devam fazer em seguida. No obstante, a estratgia NB no sequencialmente racional para o jogador 1, pois,
na hiptese contraftica de o jogo vir a alcanar o seu segundo n de deciso, B estritamente dominada por A,
de modo que o jogador 1 deveria escolher A.
Pois bem, o mtodo da induo retroativa permite eliminar decises estritamente dominadas, deixando como
resultado precisamente o ENPS correspondente ao jogo (por qu? Voc tem alguma idia?). Como funciona esse
mtodo? simples. Comece pelo final da rvore, no ltimo n de deciso (ou em um dos ltimos, se houver
mais de um). Escolha a deciso que assegure ao jogador que dever jogar em tal n de deciso o maior payoff, e
elimine as demais. Volte agora ao penltimo n de deciso, tratando-o como se fosse o ltimo, considerando o
payoff que voc selecionou no estgio precedente como o payoff correspondente deciso que conduzia, no jogo
original, ao ltimo n de deciso. Repita exatamente o mesmo procedimento, tantas vezes quanto for necessrio
para voc chegar no n inicial. Se, ao longo do procedimento completo, voc for anotando quais as decises de
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cada jogador que lhes geram os maiores payoffs, i.e., suas aes dominantes, voc ter ao fim as estratgias de
cada um de que se compem o ENPS relativo ao jogo original. Pode acreditar: muito mais fcil do que parece!
Vejamos o jogo da Figura 36, reproduzido abaixo na Figura 37:

Figura 37

Comece pelo ltimo n de deciso, correspondente ao jogador 1. Qual a deciso que lhe garante o maior
payoff, A ou B? A, obviamente. Selecione A e elimine B. Volte agora ao penltimo n de deciso, aquele
correspondente ao jogador 2. Qual a melhor deciso agora? Se escolher N, o jogador 2 ganha 2, ao passo que,
se escolher S, ganha 3 (por qu?). Logo, S deve ser selecionada e N, eliminada para o jogador 2. Recuando at o
antepenltimo n de deciso, chegamos ao n inicial, correspondente ao jogador 1. O que o jogador 1 dever
fazer aqui? Escolhendo S, o jogador 1 ganha 0, e escolhendo N, o jogador 1 ganha 1, o que significa que a sua
escolha dever ser N, com payoffs para 1 e 2 de (1,1). Qual o ENPS? Anotando as decises selecionadas para
cada jogador ao longo do jogo, temos a resposta: (NA, S).
- Exemplo para discusso em sala de aula: O Jogo Completo da Corrupo (com Delao Premiada)

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AO PENSAMENTO
INTRODUO
TEORIAESTRATGICO
DA DECISO

Abuso do Direito de Defesa e Reforma Processual

Luis Fernando Schuartz*

1. Introduo
As pesquisas de opinio incluindo a dos especialistas e profissionais diretamente
envolvidos indicam ser necessria, em nosso pas, uma reforma normativa e institucional
que torne mais eficiente o funcionamento da Justia. Nas discusses acerca de alocao
de culpas e responsabilidades, que fatalmente acompanham o diagnstico, predomina
o nimo anti-poderes pblicos, mas o bom senso e, sobretudo, o esprito democrtico,
recomendam posturas mais esclarecidas e menos enviesadas. Como j notou Joaquim
Falco, cada um de ns um pouco responsvel por este estado de coisas. O presente artigo
uma provocao neste mesmo sentido, pois trata de problemas de mau desempenho da
funo jurisdicional decorrentes, em ltima instncia, das decises de agentes econmicos
enquanto partes em uma lide, e em particular, do que poderamos denominar abuso do
direito de defesa. Um objetivo adicional do artigo apresentar parmetros para mudanas
legislativas voltadas a desincentivar esta modalidade de prtica abusiva.
O pano de fundo para a exposio est formado, de um lado, pelos dados recentemente
divulgados a respeito da concentrao da demanda por servios prestados pelo Judicirio
do Rio de Janeiro e os Juizados Especiais Federais em um pequeno conjunto de empresas
que figuram como rs em um nmero significativo de aes baseadas em idnticos
fundamentos de fato e de direito, nas quais, em regra, so derrotadas; e, de outro lado,
pela suposio de que, por detrs deste fato, h o clculo racional de agentes que apostam
em estratgias procrastinatrias ao constatarem que os custos totais impostos pelo sistema
jurdico so inferiores aos benefcios financeiros gerados por um problema de lentido da
Justia que as mesmas estratgias contribuem para acentuar. Alm disto, tendo em vista
as discusses em curso sobre formas jurdicas eficazes de soluo deste problema, a anlise
que segue tomar como hiptese de trabalho uma proposta de texto legal que enfrenta o
problema por meio da atribuio, ao juiz, de poder discricionrio para majorar o nus da
sucumbncia do ru, i.e., do percentual sobre o valor da causa ou da condenao que este
deve pagar em caso de derrota, at um certo limite previamente fixado, sem a previso de
sano propriamente dita a ser imposta seja ao ru, seja a seu representante legal. Um texto
correspondente a este tipo de proposta, elaborado recentemente por um grupo de juristas
renomados e que ser tomado adiante como representante de uma classe, o seguinte:
Nos casos de multiplicao de aes contra mesmo ru, baseada em idnticos
fundamentos de fato e de direito, e sendo aquele reiteradamente sucumbente, o juiz
poder, motivadamente, elevar o valor dos nus de que dispe o artigo 20 [do Cdigo
de Processo Civil] at o limite de 50% do valor da causa ou da condenao
A exposio tem incio com uma descrio de uma situao tpica de deciso que busca
ressaltar seus aspectos estratgicos, mais precisamente, os problemas individuais porm
inter-relacionados de deciso enfrentados por cada um dos principais protagonistas da
situao, basicamente: o Advogado, o Cliente e o Juiz. Um modelo relativamente simples
que cumpre esta funo descritiva apresentado no item 2 abaixo. Este modelo ento
modificado, no item 3, para dar conta da hiptese de que a prtica do abuso do direito
de defesa esteja em boa medida motivada pelo interesse do Cliente em desestimular,
por meio da construo de reputao do tipo tough player, o acesso potencial ao Poder
Judicirio por parte de indivduos outros que no aqueles envolvidos diretamente na

* Professor da Escola de Direito

da FGV, Rio de Janeiro.

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questo sub judice. O item 4, finalmente, apresenta trs sugestes para eventuais
inovaes normativas voltadas soluo do problema da alocao de incentivos no
sentido da realizao da finalidade legal, que passam pelo reconhecimento de que uma
norma dotada das caractersticas mencionadas acima no seria suficiente para estes fins.

2. O Modelo Simples
O modelo simples descreve a situao original como problema de deciso que envolve
trs agentes, no qual os resultados individuais associados s decises de cada agente esto
condicionados s decises dos demais agentes. Tais resultados individuais, associados s
diferentes combinaes possveis de decises dos trs agentes, permanecero indefinidos
quantitativamente. Na verdade, sua definio depender justamente de qual seja a resposta
que o sistema jurdico venha a oferecer prtica que se deseja desincentivar, resposta
que aparece ao longo do artigo como incgnita, e no como dado. No obstante, as
informaes disponveis permitem concluses interessantes do ponto de vista qualitativo,
que podem, eventualmente, ser futuramente completadas, precisadas e quantificadas
caso isto mostre-se necessrio.
Os agentes so, conforme j antecipado, o Advogado, o Cliente e o Juiz. Os primeiros
contam cada um com duas decises possveis: o Advogado recomenda ao Cliente defender-se
(AR), ou no defender-se (ANR); o Cliente defende-se (CD), ou no defende-se (CND)1.
O Juiz, por sua vez, pode acolher (JA) ou no acolher a defesa (JNA), e punir (JP) ou no
punir (JNP) o Cliente e o Advogado por prtica de abuso do direito de defesa. A ordem
das decises e as informaes disponveis para cada agente no momento em que chamado a
decidir esto caracterizadas como segue: o Advogado faz a sua avaliao preliminar acerca da
classificao jurdica da defesa enquanto protelatria ou no protelatria, bem como das
chances de xito da defesa, e recomenda a defesa ao Cliente se a avaliao for positiva. O
Cliente, partindo da, decide se vai defender-se ou no. Possivelmente, o Cliente seguir a
recomendao do Advogado, mas normalmente sem saber se a recomendao adequada
ou inadequada do ponto de vista da satisfao dos seus interesses individuais. Estas duas
hipteses so incorporadas ao modelo mediante a definio de duas distribuies de
probabilidade. A incerteza do Cliente no que se refere adequao da recomendao do
Advogado est refletida na sua expectativa de que tal recomendao seja adequada com
probabilidade p e seja inadequada com probabilidade 1 p. A incerteza do Advogado
quanto aceitao da recomendao pelo Cliente est refletida na sua expectativa de que
tal recomendao seja seguida pelo Cliente com probabilidade q e no seja seguida pelo
Cliente com probabilidade 1 q. Finalmente, caso o Cliente decida defender-se, haveria
que se considerar ainda as incertezas do Cliente e do Advogado acerca das decises do Juiz.
Para este ltimo tipo de incerteza, assumiremos que o Juiz decide acolher a defesa com
probabilidade r e no acolh-la com probabilidade 1 r, e, no ltimo caso, decide punir
com probabilidade s e no punir com probabilidade 1 s2. A figura 1 ilustra a situao
com uma rvore de jogo.

1
Entenda-se que a alternativa
de deciso no defender-se
refere-se no apenas aceitao, pelo Cliente, da validade
da pretenso formulada pelo
demandante, mas inclui
ainda a opo pela negociao
bilateral.

Para no sobrecarregar
a figura com smbolos, as
distribuies de probabilidade
que representam a incerteza
dos agentes relativamente
s avaliaes ou decises dos
demais foram omitidas.

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???
???

JP

JA

???

???

???

JNP

???

JP

JNA

???

JA

JNA

CND

CD

CD

JNP

???

CND

AR

AR
defesa
no protelatria

defesa
protelatria

ANR

ANR

CD

CND

JA

JNA

???

???

JP

JNP

???

???

CD

CND

JA

JNA

???

???

JP

JNP

???

???

Figura 1 Um Modelo Simples da Situao de Deciso

O crculo vazio no centro da figura marca simbolicamente o ponto em que se determina, juridicamente, se
a defesa seria ou no protelatria. Por hiptese, o Advogado sabe, em razo de seu conhecimento jurdico, qual
das duas possibilidades se verifica, mas o Cliente no sabe. O Advogado faz ento a sua recomendao ao Cliente
baseado na sua avaliao dos efeitos lquidos, para si prprio e para o Cliente, associados a cada possvel alternativa
de ao. Os smbolos A, C e J, postos ao lado, sob ou sobre os ns de deciso, indicam o agente que ser chamado
a decidir no correspondente n. Os smbolos AR, CD, JP, etc. representam as alternativas de deciso disponveis a
cada agente em cada n de deciso. As linhas tracejadas simbolizam o fato de que o Cliente no sabe ao certo se est
na parte de cima ou na parte de baixo da rvore quando chamado a decidir se vai defender-se, ou seja, o fato de
que o Cliente, ao decidir, no sabe se a defesa ou no protelatria. As linhas densas ressaltam as combinaes das
decises de Advogado, Cliente e Juiz que gostaramos de evitar de uma perspectiva social, pois resultam de erros de
avaliao e/ou deciso que afetam negativamente a qualidade da prestao jurisdicional e a performance do Poder
Judicirio. Os pontos de interrogao, finalmente, so lembretes de que os resultados direta ou indiretamente
associados s combinaes socialmente indesejveis tm que ser definidos de maneira a desincentivar as decises
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dos trs agentes que formam tais combinaes3.

Para ilustrar, tomemos o caso em que a defesa protelatria e o Advogado, no obstante,
avalia que os ganhos lquidos esperados para si prprio e o Cliente, associados apresentao
da defesa, so positivos, e recomenda que o Cliente se defenda. O Cliente, que atribui
probabilidade p ao evento no qual adequada a recomendao do Advogado (i.e., no
qual correta a avaliao de que a defesa satisfaz os seus interesses individuais), seguir a
recomendao do Advogado com probabilidade q. razovel assumir que q depende de p e
diretamente proporcional a p, i.e., quanto maior for p, maior ser q, e quanto menor for
p, menor ser q. Suporemos que p est prximo de q mas diferente de q, de maneira que
sempre existir uma chance de o Cliente decidir de uma forma contrria recomendao
feita pelo Advogado eventualmente, por acreditar que a recomendao do Advogado se
explica exclusivamente pelos efeitos positivos que a defesa produzir do ponto de vista dos
interesses do Advogado. O Juiz, por sua vez, tem que decidir se aceita ou no a defesa e, neste
caso, se pune ou no o Cliente por abuso do direito de defesa. Do ponto de vista do Advogado
e do Cliente, existir ento uma probabilidade r de o Juiz acolher a defesa e, logo, uma
probabilidade 1 r de o Juiz no acolher a defesa, sendo que, nesta ltima hiptese, existir
tambm uma chance de punio, que Advogado e Cliente estimam em 1 s (recorde-se
que s a probabilidade de o Juiz decidir no punir). As probabilidades r e s, vale sublinhar,
representam a incerteza (comum, por hiptese) do Advogado e do Cliente acerca do modo
como o Juiz, segundo seu prprio convencimento, decidir a respeito da defesa. Portanto,
plausvel imaginar que as referidas probabilidades sero determinadas, fundamentalmente,
pelo grau de preciso e completude com que a lei (ou mais geralmente, o direito positivo)
regular as questes relevantes para a deciso. Em particular, quanto mais precisa e completa
a linguagem da lei no que toca definio das condies necessrias e suficientes para a
punio do Cliente, menor a incerteza do Cliente e do Advogado acerca do modo como o Juiz
decidir esta questo e, conseqentemente, mais prximo de 1 (ou de 0, conforme o caso) o
valor de s. Voltando ao exemplo, se imaginarmos que r suficientemente prxima de 0, i.e.,
que suficientemente elevada a probabilidade de o Juiz no acolher a defesa (recorde-se que
a hiptese que, na avaliao do Advogado, a defesa vale a pena, para si e para o Cliente),
temos ento que a racionalidade, seja da deciso do Advogado de recomendar a defesa, seja
da deciso do Cliente de defender-se, depender especialmente do valor de s e da anlise dos
custos e benefcios que cada um, Advogado e Cliente, espera realizar nos casos de punio
e de no punio. A idia determinar tais parmetros de maneira que um agente racional
(Advogado ou Cliente), refletindo ex ante a respeito dos custos e dos benefcios esperados,
associados deciso de recomendar a defesa / defender-se, decida, nestas circunstncias,
no recomendar a defesa / no defender-se. Assim, por exemplo, trabalhando o sentido da
lei para que se torne mais claro e unvoco, pode-se eventualmente fazer s tender a 0, i.e.,
1 s tender a 1, de forma a que o Advogado e o Cliente estejam certos ou quase certos da
punio no caso de a sua prtica verificar as condies estabelecidas para que seja tratada
juridicamente como abusiva. Um outro passo seria estimar, em mdia, para Advogado e
Cliente, os benefcios esperados associados prtica que se deseja desincentivar. No caso do
Cliente, os benefcios incluem, obviamente, os possveis rendimentos alcanveis por meio
da aplicao financeira do capital necessrio satisfao da obrigao da qual originou-se a
controvrsia; e no caso do Advogado, os honorrios advocatcios e a eventual participao
nos benefcios (incluindo os financeiros) viabilizados pela estratgia procrastinatria.
A descrio da situao de deciso nos termos de um modelo como o apresentado tem a
vantagem de iluminar certos aspectos estratgicos da situao que deveriam ser levados em
conta em qualquer anlise que pretenda responder pergunta sobre a adequao de uma
dada proposta normativa enquanto meio eficaz para o aprimoramento da qualidade dos

A anlise que segue est

fortemente simplificada pela
suposio de que o Juiz est
exclusivamente orientado na
maximizao da qualidade
da prestao jurisdicional
e a performance do Poder
Judicirio (seja quais forem os
ndices por meio dos quais as
mesmas forem medidas).

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servios prestados pelo Poder Judicirio. Alguns destes aspectos so intuitivos, outros no. Entre os ltimos,
interessante destacar o modo como variaes no valor do parmetro s, a probabilidade atribuda pelo Advogado
e o Cliente deciso do Juiz de no punir, podem afetar o valor de parmetros relevantes para as decises
do Advogado e do Cliente e, por esta via, estas decises mesmas que condicionam e devem ser tomadas
anteriormente deciso final do Juiz. A estrutura do modelo nos instiga a especular acerca do que ocorreria, na
anlise do caso particular discutido acima, na hiptese de s aproximar-se de 0 em razo de um aumento do grau
de preciso e completude da norma jurdica que define condies para a identificao de defesas protelatrias
enquanto tais e a punio da prtica do abuso do direito de defesa. Agora, seria certo ou quase certo, tanto para
o Advogado, como para o Cliente, que as defesas protelatrias sero percebidas enquanto tais e devidamente
punidas pelo Juiz. Como este estado de conhecimento resultado de uma reduo das zonas de indeterminao
do texto normativo, de se esperar que se reduza o nmero das avaliaes incorretas por parte do Advogado e,
com isto, tambm a incerteza do Cliente com relao adequao da recomendao do Advogado, i.e., que o
valor de p aumente e aproxime-se de 1. Isto, por sua vez, faria com que a probabilidade q de o Cliente seguir a
recomendao do Advogado aumentasse.
Uma concluso que pode ser inferida deste raciocnio relativamente simples que, dado um texto normativo
que seja suficientemente claro e livre de ambigidades, um parmetro chave para desincentivar a prtica do
abuso do direito de defesa a punio a ser imposta ao Advogado na forma de imposio de uma sano. Ainda
que, em determinados casos, a preocupao do Advogado com a preservao de sua reputao possa bastar para
impedi-lo de recomendar defesas protelatrias que ele sabe, quase ao certo, que no sero aceitas e sero punidas,
a previso de uma sano pode funcionar como critrio decisivo, sobretudo se considerarmos (i) os incentivos
pecunirios que o Advogado horista possui no sentido de maximizar a quantidade das horas trabalhadas para
o Cliente, (ii) a ausncia de certeza completa quanto aos destinos da defesa, e ainda, (iii) o fato de uma parte
significativa dos Clientes atribuir valor positivo justamente a e a reputao de uma parte significativa dos
Advogados ser construda e sustentar-se justamente sobre caractersticas do tipo jamais desiste. Por outro
lado, a imposio de uma sano ao Advogado vai ficando cada vez mais problemtica medida em que aumenta
o grau de impreciso e ambigidade da lei e, com este, a incerteza em relao deciso do Juiz, pois, neste caso,
tendem a crescer a propenso do Juiz ao erro, a insegurana do Advogado quanto sua prpria recomendao,
a incerteza do Cliente quanto adequao da recomendao do Advogado, e a hesitao do Cliente em seguir a
recomendao do Advogado (i.e., tende a crescer a diferena entre os valores de p e q). Mesmo que, como ocorre
em alguns casos, a confiana depositada pelo Cliente no Advogado seja slida o bastante para reprimir impulsos
crticos e hesitaes, inclusive e sobretudo diante de resultados radicalmente incertos e indeterminados, no
parece ser aconselhvel a previso de sano para o Advogado sob condies de impreciso e ambigidade do
texto legal. O principal fator neste sentido est na elevada probabilidade de erro judicial, da adoo pelo Juiz de
postura excessivamente conservadora ou mesmo omissa com relao aplicao da norma e, em conseqncia,
de que a norma torne-se completamente ineficaz.

3. Jogando Duro e o Modelo Modicado

Neste item, ser introduzido um novo elemento na estria que d suporte ao modelo do item 2, e que conduzir
sua modificao. A incorporao deste elemento adicional torna o modelo um pouco menos transparente mas,
eventualmente, mais realista. O novo elemento a preocupao do Cliente com os efeitos dinmicos associados
deciso de no defender-se em um caso concreto. Especialmente no caso daquelas empresas que tm que
responder, potencialmente, a uma quantidade muito elevada de demandas judiciais, o incentivo para defenderse pode explicar-se pela necessidade de criar e estabilizar uma reputao de tough player ante os demandantes
potenciais, a fim de desestimul-los a buscar o Poder Judicirio para fazer valer seus direitos. Para dar conta desta
motivao, o modelo original dever ser modificado em duas frentes.
A primeira modificao est na entrada em cena de um novo tipo de agente, qual seja, uma populao P
de demandantes potenciais, onde P = { ,...}, e cada elemento de P, i.e., cada , com i = 1, 2,..., um proponente
potencial de uma futura ao judicial contra o Cliente. A segunda modificao tenta capturar o aspecto dinmico
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da situao de deciso, i.e., o fato de a deciso a ser adotada pelo Cliente, em cada ao judicial, depender dos
seus efeitos esperados sobre a propenso dos demandantes potenciais de ingressarem em juzo contra o Cliente.
Este fato pode ser modelado da seguinte forma. Suponhamos, para simplificar, que as demandas no ocorram
simultaneamente (embora isto no seja necessrio para validar o raciocnio) e que seja dada uma situao de
deciso tal como a ilustrada na Figura 1 acima, i.e., suponhamos que algum, que denotaremos por , ingressou
em juzo contra o Cliente. A situao a da Figura 1, salvo no que toca aos efeitos esperados da deciso do
Cliente. Quanto a estes, a expectativa que (i) a deciso do Cliente de defender-se funcione como sinalizao, aos
demandantes potenciais, de que o Cliente est disposto a jogar duro, e que tal sinalizao seja determinante para
que uma quantidade no desprezvel de demandantes potenciais decida no acionar o Cliente; e, (ii) por outro
lado, a deciso do Cliente de no defender-se sinalize, aos demandantes potenciais, que o Cliente est disposto
a ceder, e que tal sinalizao seja determinante para que uma quantidade no desprezvel de demandantes
potenciais decida acionar o Cliente. A conseqncia mais relevante em termos do clculo do resultado lquido
da deciso do Cliente que, no lado dos custos, deve ser contabilizada a despesa total incorrida pelo Cliente com
os pagamentos a fazer a uma certa quantidade de demandantes potenciais cuja deciso de acionar o Cliente est
condicionada pela deciso do Cliente de no defender-se em casos semelhantes, e que, do lado dos benefcios,
deve ser contabilizada a economia produzida pela deciso de uma certa quantidade de demandantes potenciais
de no acionar o Cliente em virtude da deciso do Cliente de defender-se em casos semelhantes.
Voltando Figura 1, suponhamos que a situao por ela representada coloca-se aps a propositura de uma
ao judicial por um certo demandante, digamos po. Suponhamos ainda que, na avaliao feita pelo Advogado,
qualquer defesa ser meramente protelatria, e que o Cliente est certo de que a avaliao do Advogado correta.
O Cliente, ao ser chamado a decidir, enfrenta um problema completamente novo. Se o Cliente defender-se, ele
suportar os riscos (elevados, por hiptese) de no acolhimento da defesa e punio pelo Juiz na ao de po e nas
aes subseqentes dos demandantes potenciais no dissuadidos da inteno de acionar o Cliente por fora da
sinalizao do Cliente de que ele est disposto a defender-se reiteradamente. Se k o nmero dos demandantes
potenciais que no foram dissuadidos e as demandas so idnticas, o Cliente enfrentar (alm das despesas com o
Advogado, taxas processuais, etc.) um custo esperado de k+1 vezes a soma do valor devido a , digamos v, com o
valor da punio aplicada em razo da defesa protelatria. Denotando por S o valor total desta soma (i.e., S = v+V),
tem-se que o custo esperado (no descontado) do Cliente na hiptese de defesa S.(k+1). Se o cliente no defendese (em qualquer das demandas), ele pagar o valor v, devido a , mais este mesmo valor v, multiplicado pelo nmero
total de demandantes que decidam acion-lo. Se j este nmero, o custo esperado (no descontado) do Cliente
v.(j+1). Supondo que possamos, de algum modo, obter estimativas confiveis dos valores de k, j e v, o problema
de deciso, do ponto de vista do legislador ou do policy maker, determinar o valor de V tal que se tenha (com a
aplicao dos devidos fatores de desconto): (v+V).(k+1) = S.(k+1) > v.(j+1). Uma alternativa, possivelmente mais
eficiente que a fixao de um valor constante para V, fazer V variar, no s em funo do valor da causa e do valor
da condenao (como ocorre na hiptese de majorao pura e simples do nus da sucumbncia), mas tambm,
do nmero de vezes em que foi utilizada a estratgia procrastinatria. Por exemplo, na clculo do custo do Cliente
que utilizou esta estratgia k vezes em k demandas similares, poderamos ter, em lugar de uma parcela igual a (k+1)
vezes V, uma soma V0 + V1 + V2 + ... + Vx , onde Vi a punio aplicada ao Cliente no mbito da ao proposta
pelo demandante , com i = 0, 1, 2,..., k, e Vi < Vi+1 , para todo i (e i variando de 0 a k1).

4. Sugestes para a Reforma Processual

4.1. O sentido do texto normativo deve ser unvoco

A indeterminao do sentido do texto um problema de cuja soluo depende a soluo dos demais
problemas listados abaixo. Isto j estava prenunciado na breve discusso, no mbito da anlise do modelo
simples, sobre as relaes entre o valor do parmetro s, de um lado, e os valores dos parmetros p e q e, a partir
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destes, a distribuio de incentivos do ponto de vista do Advogado e do Cliente , de outro lado. A adequada
especificao das condies necessrias e suficientes para a majorao do nus da sucumbncia e a eventual
aplicao de sano por litigncia de m-f fundamental para a realizao da finalidade a este relativa. De fato,
olhando para esta questo da perspectiva do Cliente, a univocidade do sentido do texto quanto s conseqncias
decorrentes de cada possvel alternativa decisria contribui para eliminar incertezas e facilita o clculo dos custos
e benefcios associados a cada alternativa. Quanto maior a incerteza quanto futura deciso do Juiz, maior
pode ser tambm a propenso do Cliente a apostar na prpria impunidade, uma vez que se trata de norma
cuja aplicao ir mover-se na tnue fronteira entre restrio do abuso do direito de defesa e cerceamento do
direito constitucional de defesa propriamente dito. A clareza do texto essencial para deixar o Juiz vontade
para impor o nus e a sano aplicveis, e evitar as inevitveis hesitaes diante de uma deciso de punir que
poder vir a ser e ser questionada em instncias superiores. Em outras palavras, a indeterminao quanto
s condies necessrias e suficientes para a majorao do nus da sucumbncia e a eventual imposio da
sano pode tornar a norma contra-producente, pois no apenas obstaculiza a realizao dos seus objetivos, mas
tambm agrava o mal que a norma deveria contribuir para curar.
Especialmente problemticas, neste contexto, so expresses de contedo semntico indeterminado, do tipo
multiplicao de aes, repetio de aes, etc. Quantas aes contra o mesmo ru so necessrias para
estarmos autorizados a falar de multiplicao? Confiar exclusivamente subjetividade do Juiz, em cada caso
concreto, esta determinao, um convite ttica do recurso protelatrio e, no limite, inaplicabilidade da
norma, dadas as dificuldades de apontar in concreto o ponto em que se d a passagem de um estado ao outro, ou
pior: a metamorfose da presuno da boa f em presuno da m f do ru. Uma soluo bem mais econmica
seria fixar, seja legalmente, seja infra-legalmente por deciso de rgos selecionados do Poder Judicirio, um
nmero mnimo de aes a partir do qual o Juiz estaria autorizado a fazer esta presuno, podendo-se reservar
ao Juiz, se assim se desejar, uma margem de discricionariedade em relao somente efetiva aplicao da
sano por litigncia de m-f. Por outro lado, preciso ter em mente que a admissibilidade desta margem de
discricionariedade ir reintroduzir pela porta dos fundos o risco de inaplicabilidade antes mencionado, de modo
que o ideal seria usar uma linguagem que sugerisse a obrigatoriedade tambm da imposio da sano uma
vez verificadas as condies previstas na hiptese normativa (novamente, poder-se-ia admitir certa margem de
discricionariedade para o Juiz na definio do valor exato da sano, tendo em vista as circunstncias especficas
do caso concreto). Em qualquer hiptese, importante que a discusso acerca de qual deveria ser este nmero
mnimo no se deixe paralisar pela obsesso com a determinao de um nmero mgico que possa resistir a todos
os possveis contra-exemplos. A idia da fixao de um mnimo obedece a uma lgica estritamente pragmtica,
dizer, lgica da busca de uma soluo efetiva para um problema prtico, dadas as restries de recursos que
afetam, sabidamente, a performance do Poder Pblico no Brasil.

4.2.

Previso de punio para o Advogado

No item 2, argumentou-se que a deciso do Advogado de recomendar, ou no, a defesa ao seu Cliente,
uma varivel-chave no problema de como desenhar o melhor mecanismo institucional para desestimular a
prtica do uso do direito de defesa para fins protelatrios. Devidamente consideradas a estrutura de incentivos
pecunirios ou no do Advogado e a probabilidade de o Cliente seguir a recomendao do Advogado, seria
interessante que o texto da norma contivesse uma previso de sano a ser imposta tambm a este ltimo. Os
textos normativo-jurdicos que tratam da questo da litigncia de m-f parecem subscrever implicitamente a
suposio convencional de que o papel do Advogado o de um prestador de servios que executa fielmente as
ordens de um Cliente soberano. Em face da assimetria de informao que caracteriza, cada vez mais sensivelmente,
a relao Advogado-Cliente, razovel supor que esta premissa esteja bem longe de corresponder prtica
habitual. Em regra, o Cliente apenas entra em cena, decisivamente, no momento da contratao do Advogado,
e o processo de troca de informaes entre ambos para efeitos de prestao de contas comandado seletivamente
pelo Advogado na forma mais apropriada satisfao dos seus prprios interesses. Neste sentido, a possibilidade
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de punio cria para o Advogado um incentivo adicional adoo de uma postura mais
alinhada com os interesses legtimos do Cliente e o interesse pblico. Ainda que existam
nuances a considerar no caso das grandes empresas que contam com departamentos jurdicos
sofisticados e, para algumas reas do direito, formas relativamente eficazes de reduo
da assimetria de informao que existe entre Cliente e Advogado, referidas nuances no
parecem ser suficientes para fazer desaparecer a questo da incompatibilidade de incentivos
e, logo, a importncia da funo conferida previso de punio para o Advogado como
meio para viabilizar a realizao da finalidade legal.
Poder-se-ia argumentar que a expressa previso de sano para o Advogado desnecessria
luz do que j dispe o art. 34, VI, do Estatuto do Advogado, que define como infrao
disciplinar a prtica da advocacia contra literal disposio de lei. Este argumento, no
entanto, frgil por duas razes. A primeira est na dificuldade de aplicao da mencionada
norma em razo de sua linguagem frouxa. Ao acusado, aberta a possibilidade de
questionamento dos fundamentos da acusao no s em razo de dvidas em relao
literalidade da disposio legal contra a qual a advocacia teria sido praticada, mas tambm
nos casos em que a afronta letra da norma estiver fora de discusso , em nome de sua
prpria convico acerca da inconstitucionalidade ou injustia do dispositivo em questo.
A segunda razo est no carter quase simblico da sano aplicvel, a saber, a censura4.
difcil crer que a previso de uma punio to branda seja capaz de desestimular o
comportamento negligente do Advogado no sentido de recomendar, ao Cliente, prtica de
conduta que sabe ser abusiva (note-se, contudo, que a previso de punio do Advogado na
hiptese de abuso do direito de defesa no se aconselha em havendo ambigidade do texto
legal, conforme indicado acima).
Uma opo indireta e menos traumtica mas, provavelmente, tambm menos eficaz
que a previso de sano pecuniria ao Advogado, e que, eventualmente, poderia contribuir
para disciplinar seu comportamento e alinhar seus interesses com a finalidade legal, seria a
criao de uma despesa extra a ser incorrida pelo Cliente, anteriormente apresentao da
defesa, se verificadas, preliminarmente, certas condies que apontem na direo de uma
prtica abusiva. Neste caso, dependendo do valor desta despesa, possvel que o Advogado
veja-se pressionado pelo Cliente a prestar contas a respeito da presena de tais condies no
caso concreto, viabilizando ao Cliente o exerccio de uma maior autonomia sobre a deciso
relativa apresentao de defesa. O problema com esta sugesto que ela torna necessria
uma nova deciso no mbito do processo judicial, a saber, a deciso do Juiz a respeito da
presena, no caso concreto, das referidas condies, criando assim uma nova oportunidade
de questionamento para o Cliente.

4.3. Previso da reincidncia enquanto critrio de fixao de sano

Se o propsito de um texto normativo criar um desincentivo adicional e eficaz ao abuso
do direito de defesa no caso particular daqueles rus derrotados repetidas vezes em aes
baseadas em iguais fundamentos de fato e de direito, deve-se ter em mente que a repetio
a caracterstica central a diferenciar esta prtica do caso geral j devidamente coberto pelos
arts. 14, III, e 20 do Cdigo de Processo Civil, e que serve, igualmente, de justificativa
para um tratamento mais rigoroso. Se plausvel assumir-se que, dentro de um intervalo
relevante do ponto de vista prtico, os benefcios marginais associados repetio da estratgia
procrastinatria so crescentes, seria natural buscar neutraliz-los por meio de uma seqncia
crescente de punies que assegurassem, dado um nmero qualquer n de aes pertencentes
a este intervalo, que os custos marginais, para o Cliente, associados demanda n+1, so

Ver art. 36, I, do Estatuto do

Advogado. algo a se discutir
at que ponto uma eventual
previso no sentido de que
o Juiz solicitasse, de ofcio,
Ordem dos Advogados
do Brasil, que tomasse as
providncias cabveis contra
advogados negligentes, seria
suficiente para dissuadir, por
constrangimento, o Advogado
a recomendar ao Cliente
a apresentao da defesa
protelatria.

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superiores aos benefcios marginais que o Cliente espera obter adotando a referida estratgia.
Neste sentido, as variveis previstas para a fixao do valor da sano correspondente prtica reiterada
da defesa protelatria devem necessariamente guardar uma relao de referncia necessria mencionada
caracterstica diferenciadora. No recomendvel que elas sejam exatamente as mesmas que as previstas para a
fixao do valor do nus imposto ao ru em virtude da sucumbncia, quais sejam, o valor da causa e o valor da
condenao, mesmo supondo que o limite para o percentual aplicvel sobre estas variveis venha a ser majorado.
Novamente, supondo que os ganhos marginais para o Cliente so crescentes, existir um nmero n de repeties
da estratgia protelatria a partir do qual sua adoo valer a pena para o Cliente, inclusive assumindo fixao
do percentual mximo nas aes precedentes e subseqentes. Nos casos em que o nmero esperado de aes
efetivas for superior a n, a punio deixar de ser eficaz para a realizao do seu objetivo de dissuadir o Cliente
a se defender. Por esta razo, recomendvel que o texto contenha previso de que o valor da sano poder
(tambm) variar em funo da reincidncia do ru, i.e., do nmero de vezes em que a estratgia foi usada de
preferncia, acima do limite mnimo (ou aps ter sido satisfeita a condio equivalente) sugerido no item 4.1.,
se algo do gnero viesse a ser definido.

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Rafael Pinho Senra de Morais

Doutorando e Mestre em Economia pela Toulouse School of Economics. Mestre
em Economia pela Escola de Ps-Graduao em Economia da Fundao Getlio
Vargas (EPGE-FGV). Bacharel em Direito pela Universidade do Estado do Rio de
Janeiro (UERJ) e Economista pelo Instituto Brasileiro de Mercado de Capitais
(IBMEC).

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FICHA TCNICA
Fundao Getulio Vargas
Carlos Ivan Simonsen Leal
PRESIDENTE
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Joaquim Falco
DIRETOR
Fernando Penteado

VICE-DIRETOR DA GRADUAO

Srgio Guerra

VICE-DIRETOR DE PS-GRADUAO

Luiz Roberto Ayoub

PROFESSOR COORDENADOR DO PROGRAMA DE CAPACITAO EM PODER JUDICIRIO

Ronaldo Lemos

COORDENADOR CENTRO DE TECNOLOGIA E SOCIEDADE

Evandro Menezes de Carvalho

COORDENADOR DA GRADUAO

Rogrio Barcelos Alves

COORDENADOR DE METODOLOGIA E MATERIAL DIDTICO

Lgia Fabris e Thiago Bottino do Amaral

COORDENADORES DO NCLEO DE PRTICA JURDICA

Wania Torres

COORDENADORA DE SECRETARIA DE GRADUAO

Diogo Pinheiro

COORDENADOR DE FINANAS

Milena Brant

COORDENADORA DE MARKETING ESTRATGICO E PLANEJAMENTO

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