Forecasting

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SETIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE

Next period

3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
9.29
9.99
10.16
10.25
10.61
11.07
11.52
11.09
10.8
10.5
10.86
9.97

9.8133333333 0.4366666667 0.4366666667

10.133333333 0.4766666667 0.4766666667
10.34
0.73
0.73
10.643333333 0.8766666667 0.8766666667
11.066666667 0.0233333333 0.0233333333
11.226666667 -0.4266666667 0.4266666667
11.136666667 -0.6366666667 0.6366666667
10.796666667 0.0633333333 0.0633333333
10.72
-0.75
0.75
Total
0.7933333333
4.42
Average
0.088148148 0.491111111
Bias
MAD
SE

10.4433333

RESULTADOS
A)PRONOSTICO A PARTIR DE ABRIL
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SETIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE

9.81333333
10.1333333
10.34
10.6433333
11.0666667
11.2266667
11.1366667
10.7966667
10.72

B)PRONOSTICO A PARTIR DE JUNIO

JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SETIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE

10.06
10.416
10.722
10.908
11.018
10.996

DICIEMBRE
C)
D)
E)

MAD
MSE
MAPE

10.954
0.4911111
0.604
0.3193086 0.52015429
4.59%
5.58%

F)EL RENDIMIENTO PARA EL SIGUIENTE MES ES 10.443333

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0.1906777778
04.26%
0.2272111111
04.49%
0.5329
06.59%
0.7685444444
07.61%
0.0005444444
00.21%
0.1820444444
03.95%
0.4053444444
06.06%
0.0040111111
00.58%
0.5625
07.52%
2.8737777778
41.29%
0.319308642
04.59%
MSE
MAPE
0.640733706

Fo

Value

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1

De

Forecasting

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

Forecasting

Moving averages - 5 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
ENERO
FEBRERO
MARZO
ABRIL
MAYO
JUNIO
JULIO
AGOSTO
SETIEMBRE
OCTUBRE
NOVIEMBRE
DICIEMBRE

5
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
9.29
9.99
10.16
10.25
10.61
11.07
11.52
11.09
10.8
10.5
10.86
9.97

10.06
10.416
10.722
10.908
11.018
10.996
10.954
Total
Average

Next period

10.644

1.01
1.104
0.368
-0.108
-0.518
-0.136
-0.984
0.736
0.105142857
Bias
MAD
SE

1.01
1.104
0.368
0.108
0.518
0.136
0.984
4.228
0.604

Squared

Forecasting

Abs Pct Err

14
12
10

1.0201
09.12%
1.218816
09.58%
0.135424
03.32%
0.011664
01.00%
0.268324
04.93%
0.018496
01.25%
0.968256
09.87%
3.64108
39.08%
0.520154286
05.58%
MSE
MAPE
0.853355729

8
Value

6
4
2
0
1

Time
Demand

Forecast

recasting

Demand

Time
Forecast

10

11

12

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the starting
starting
forecast
forecast is
is not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL
MENSUAL

0.2
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

9.29
9.99
10.16
10.25
10.61
11.07
11.52
11.09
10.8
10.5
10.86
9.97

Next period

10.4995919

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute
9.29
0
0
9.29
0.7
0.7
9.43
0.73
0.73
9.576
0.674
0.674
9.7108
0.8992
0.8992
9.89064
1.17936
1.17936
10.126512
1.393488
1.393488
10.4052096
0.6847904
0.6847904
10.54216768
0.25783232
0.25783232
10.593734144 -0.093734144 0.093734144
10.574987315 0.2850126848 0.2850126848
10.631989852 -0.6619898522 0.6619898522
Total 6.0479594086 7.559407401
Average 0.503996617 0.629950617
Bias
MAD
SE

RESPUESTA

A)ESTE PRONOSTICO NO ES MEJOR QUE EL MODELO DE PROMEDIO MOVIL DE 3 MESES , PUE

MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR
MAD
MSE
MAPE

0.4911111 0.62995062
0.3193086 0.55684165
4.59%
5.89%

f the
the starting
starting

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0
00.00%
0.49
07.01%
0.5329
07.19%
0.454276
06.58%
0.80856064
08.48%
1.3908900096
10.65%
1.9418088061
12.10%
0.4689378919
06.17%
0.0664775052
02.39%
0.0087860898
00.89%
0.0812322305
02.62%
0.4382305644 0.06639818
6.6820997375
70.71%
0.556841645
05.89%
MSE
MAPE
0.817441113

L DE 3 MESES , PUES TIENE UN

14
12
10
8
Value

6
4
2
0
1

Forecasting

14
12
10
8
Value

6
4
2
0
1

6
9.29
Time

7
9.29

10

11

10

11

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

0.5
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute
205
0
0
205
46
46
228
76
76
266
18
18
275
77
77
313.5
-13.5
13.5
306.75
-65.75
65.75
273.875
10.125
10.125
278.9375
33.0625
33.0625
295.46875
-6.46875
6.46875
292.234375
92.765625
92.765625
338.6171875
-82.6171875
82.6171875
Total 184.6171875 521.2890625
Average 15.38476563 43.44075521
Bias
MAD
SE

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

205
251
304
284
352
300
241
284
312
289
385
256

Next period

297.308594

RESPUESTAS
A)EL MEJOR PRONOSTICO ES EL DE CONSTANTE DE
SUAVIZAMIENTO = 0.5 PORQUE TIENE UN MENOR MARGEN DE
ERROR
0.5

MAD
MSE
MAPE

0.7

43.440755 45.3548247
2943.2386 0.52015429
14.67%
15.46%

ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0
00.00%
2116
18.33%
5776
25.00%
324
06.34%
5929
21.88%
182.25
04.50%
4323.0625
27.28%
102.515625
03.57%
1093.1289063
10.60%
41.844726563
02.24%
8605.4611816
24.09%
6825.5996704 0.32272339
35318.86261
176.09%
2943.238551
14.67%
MSE
MAPE
59.42967492

Forecastin

450
400
350
300
250
Value

200
150
100
50
0
1

6
Time
205

Forecasting

Time
205

205

10

11

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

0.7
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Next period

205
251
304
284
352
300
241
284
312
289
385
256

286.399631

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute
205
0
0
205
46
46
237.2
66.8
66.8
283.96
0.04
0.04
283.988
68.012
68.012
331.5964
-31.5964
31.5964
309.47892
-68.47892
68.47892
261.543676
22.456324
22.456324
277.2631028
34.7368972
34.7368972
301.57893084 -12.57893084 12.57893084
292.77367925 92.226320748 92.226320748
357.33210378 -101.33210378 101.33210378
Total 116.28518733 544.25789656
Average 9.690432278 45.35482471
Bias
MAD
SE

ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.

Forecasting
Abs Pct Err
0
00.00%
2116
18.33%
4462.24
21.97%
0.0016
00.01%
4625.632144
19.32%
998.33249296
10.53%
4689.3624844
28.41%
504.28648759
07.91%
1206.6520271
11.13%
158.22950108
04.35%
8505.6942387
23.95%
10268.195256 0.39582853
37534.626231
185.51%
3127.885519
15.46%
MSE
MAPE
61.26550925

450

Squared

400
350
300
250
Value

200
150
100
50
0
1

6
Time

205

205

Forecasting

6
Time

205

205

10

11

Forecasting

Moving averages - 3 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES
TRIMESTRES

3
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Next period

82.5
81.3
81.3
79
76.6
78
78.4
78
78.8
78.7
78.4
80
80.7
80.7
80.8

81.7
-2.7
2.7
80.533333333 -3.9333333333 3.9333333333
78.966666667 -0.9666666667 0.9666666667
77.866666667 0.5333333333 0.5333333333
77.666666667 0.3333333333 0.3333333333
78.133333333 0.6666666667 0.6666666667
78.4
0.3
0.3
78.5
-0.1
0.1
78.633333333 1.3666666667 1.3666666667
79.033333333 1.6666666667 1.6666666667
79.7
1
1
80.466666667 0.3333333333 0.3333333333
Total
-1.5
13.9
Average
-0.125 1.158333333
Bias
MAD
SE

80.7333333

RESPUESTAS

A) SE OBTIENE UN MEJOR PRONOSTICO CON PROMEDIO MOVIL = 3 SEMANAS , EXISTE MENOR MARGE
3
4

MAD
MSE
MAPE

1.1583333 1.19772727
2.5326852 2.81301136
1.47%
1.52%

B) EL MEJOR PRONOSTICO SE LOGRA CON UNA CONSTANTE DE SUAVIZAMIENTO = 0.5 , PORQUE TIEN
0.4
0.5

MAD
MSE
MAPE

1.0684456 0.94932943
2.2355817 1.87994601
1.35%
1.20%

C) EL MEJOR PRONOSTICO RESULTA DE LA UTILIZACION DEL PROMEDIO MOVIL = 0.5 SEMANAS PORQ
3

MAD
MSE
MAPE

0.5

1.1583333 0.94932943
2.5326852 1.87994601
1.47%
1.20%

Squared

Abs Pct Err

7.29
03.42%
15.471111111
05.13%
0.9344444444
01.24%
0.2844444444
00.68%
0.1111111111
00.43%
0.4444444444
00.85%
0.09
00.38%
0.01
00.13%
1.8677777778
01.71%
2.7777777778
02.07%
1
01.24%
0.1111111111
00.41%
30.392222222
17.68%
2.532685185
01.47%
MSE
MAPE
1.74333652

Fore
84
82

, EXISTE MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR

TO = 0.5 , PORQUE TIENE UN MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR

L = 0.5 SEMANAS PORQUE RESULTA UN MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR

80
Value

78
76
74
72
1

Deman

Forecasting

Time
Demand

Forecast

10

11

12

13

14

15

Forecasting

Moving averages - 4 period moving average

Enter
Enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area
area

Num pds
Data
Period
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE
TRIMESTRE

4
Forecasts and Error Analysis
Forecast
Error
Absolute

Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

82.5
81.3
81.3
79
76.6
78
78.4
78
78.8
78.7
78.4
80
80.7
80.7
80.8

81.025
79.55
78.725
78
77.75
78.3
78.475
78.475
78.975
79.45
79.95
Total
Average

Next period

80.55

-4.425
4.425
-1.55
1.55
-0.325
0.325
0
0
1.05
1.05
0.4
0.4
-0.075
0.075
1.525
1.525
1.725
1.725
1.25
1.25
0.85
0.85
0.425
13.175
0.038636364 1.197727273
Bias
MAD
SE

Squared

Abs Pct Err

19.580625
05.78%
2.4025
01.99%
0.105625
00.41%
0
00.00%
1.1025
01.33%
0.16
00.51%
0.005625
00.10%
2.325625
01.91%
2.975625
02.14%
1.5625
01.55%
0.7225
01.05%
30.943125
16.76%
2.813011364
01.52%
MSE
MAPE
1.854218164

Forecasting
83
82
81
80
79
Value

78
77
76
75
74
73
1

10

Time
Demand

Forecast

11

12

13

14

15

10

st

11

12

13

14

15

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

0.4
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Next period

82.5
81.3
81.3
79
76.6
78
78.4
78
78.8
78.7
78.4
80
80.7
80.7
80.8

80.3959149

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute
82.5
0
0
82.5
-1.2
1.2
82.02
-0.72
0.72
81.732
-2.732
2.732
80.6392
-4.0392
4.0392
79.02352
-1.02352
1.02352
78.614112
-0.214112
0.214112
78.5284672
-0.5284672
0.5284672
78.31708032
0.48291968
0.48291968
78.510248192 0.189751808 0.189751808
78.586148915 -0.1861489152 0.1861489152
78.511689349 1.4883106509 1.4883106509
79.107013609 1.5929863905 1.5929863905
79.744208166 0.9557918343 0.9557918343
80.126524899 0.6734751006 0.6734751006
Total -5.2602126509 16.02668358
Average -0.35068084 1.068445572
Bias
MAD
SE

ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0
00.00%
1.44
01.48%
0.5184
00.89%
7.463824
03.46%
16.31513664
05.27%
1.0475931904
01.31%
0.0458439485
00.27%
0.2792775815
00.68%
0.2332114173
00.61%
0.0360057486
00.24%
0.0346514186
00.24%
2.2150685935
01.86%
2.5376056404
01.97%
0.9135380305
01.18%
0.4535687111 0.00833509
33.533724921
20.30%
2.235581661
01.35%
MSE
MAPE
1.606087576

Forecasting
83
82
81
80
79
Value

78
77
76
75
74
73
1

Time
82.5

82.5

10

11

12

13

14

10

11

12

13

14

Forecasting

Exponential smoothing

Enter
Enter alpha
alpha (between
(between 00 and
and 1),
1), enter
enter the
the past
past demands
demands in
in the
the shaded
shaded column
column then
then enter
enter aa starting
starting forecast.
forecast. IfIf the
the
starting
starting forecast
forecast isis not
not in
in the
the first
first period
period then
then delete
delete the
the error
error analysis
analysis for
for all
all rows
rows above
above the
the starting
starting forecast.
forecast.

Alpha
Data
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period
Period

0.5
Demand
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Next period

82.5
81.3
81.3
79
76.6
78
78.4
78
78.8
78.7
78.4
80
80.7
80.7
80.8

80.5684082

Forecasts and Error Analysis

Forecast
Error
Absolute
82.5
0
0
82.5
-1.2
1.2
81.9
-0.6
0.6
81.6
-2.6
2.6
80.3
-3.7
3.7
78.45
-0.45
0.45
78.225
0.175
0.175
78.3125
-0.3125
0.3125
78.15625
0.64375
0.64375
78.478125
0.221875
0.221875
78.5890625
-0.1890625
0.1890625
78.49453125
1.50546875
1.50546875
79.247265625 1.452734375 1.452734375
79.973632813 0.7263671875 0.7263671875
80.336816406 0.4631835938 0.4631835938
Total -3.8631835938 14.239941406
Average -0.25754557 0.949329427
Bias
MAD
SE

ecast. IfIf the

recast.
the
orecast.
orecast.

Squared

Abs Pct Err

0
00.00%
1.44
01.48%
0.36
00.74%
6.76
03.29%
13.69
04.83%
0.2025
00.58%
0.030625
00.22%
0.09765625
00.40%
0.4144140625
00.82%
0.0492285156
00.28%
0.0357446289
00.24%
2.2664361572
01.88%
2.1104371643
01.80%
0.5276092911
00.90%
0.2145390415 0.00573247
28.199190111
18.03%
1.879946007
01.20%
MSE
MAPE
1.47280972

Forecasting
83
82
81
80
79
Value

78
77
76
75
74
73
1

Time
82.5

82.5

10

11

12

13

14

10

11

12

13

14