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Martin F. Quaas
Martin Quaas
University of Kiel Resilience and sustainability of resource-economic systems
1/28
Martin Quaas
University of Kiel Resilience and sustainability of resource-economic systems
2/28
2/28
collapse of fish stocks is economic problem on top of
inefficiently low stocks and yields from individual fisheries
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
4/28
n
X
hi
i=1
hi 0
>1
>0
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
5/28
MULTI-SPECIES MODEL
consumer demand for species i
hit =
pit
n
P
pjt1
j=1
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
6/28
MULTI-SPECIES MODEL
consumer demand for species i
hit =
pit
n
P
pjt1
j=1
MULTI-SPECIES MODEL
consumer demand for species i
hit =
pit
n
P
pjt1
j=1
MULTI-SPECIES MODEL
harvesting cost
ci (xi , hi ) = ci xii hi
ci > 0 and 0 < i 1
value for i
0.75
0.65
0.64
0.60
0.56
reference
Harley, Myers, and Dunn (2001)
Harley, Myers, and Dunn (2001)
Kronbak (2005:472)
Grafton et al. (2007, SI p. 7)
Bjrndal and Conrad (1987),
Nostbakken and Bjorndal (2003:351)
pollock
0.50
Quinn and Deriso (1999:28)
Northern anchovy
0.39
Opsomer and Conrad (1994:29)
Australian Northern prawn 0.40
Grafton et al. (2007)
yellow fin tuna
0.23
Grafton et al. (2007)
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
7/28
OPEN ACCESS
zero-profit for fishing firms
pi hi ci xii hi = pi ci xii hi = 0
consumer demand for species i
hi =
pi
n
P
pj1
j=1
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
8/28
OPEN ACCESS
zero-profit for fishing firms
pi hi ci xii hi = pi ci xii hi = 0
consumer demand for species i
hi =
pi
n
P
pj1
j=1
ci xi i
n
P
j=1
(1) j
cj1 xj
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
8/28
OPEN ACCESS
zero-profit for fishing firms
pi hi ci xii hi = pi ci xii hi = 0
consumer demand for species i
hi =
pi
n
P
pj1
j=1
ci xi i
n
P
j=1
(1) j
cj1 xj
xi
n
c P
(1)
xj
j=1
OPEN ACCESS
Lemma
Assuming 1 < 2 < ... < n , steady-state stocks under open
access are ordered according to intrinsic growth rates,
x1oa x2oa . . . xnoa .
stocks xi
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
species 1
species 2
species 3
0.1
species 4
species 5
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0.2
elasticity of substitution
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
9/28
OPEN ACCESS
Lemma
Assuming 1 < 2 < ... < n , steady-state stocks under open
access are ordered according to intrinsic growth rates,
x1oa x2oa . . . xnoa .
Proposition
For all there exists some species i0 with 1 i0 < n such that
such in the neighborhood of we have:
dxioa
>0
d
dxioa
0
d
dxioa
<0
d
stocks xi
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
species 1
species 2
species 3
0.1
species 4
species 5
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0.2
elasticity of substitution
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
9/28
OPEN ACCESS
stocks xi
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
species 1
species 2
species 3
0.1
species 4
species 5
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0.2
elasticity of substitution
Proof:
OPEN ACCESS
Proof:
harvest
differentiate open-access
hi =
xi
n
c P
(1)
xj
j=1
stocks xi
0.8
with respect to :
0.7
0.6
0.5
hioa
= hioa
ln xi
0.4
0.3
species 1
species 2
species 3
0.1
species 4
species 5
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0.2
elasticity of substitution
n
P
j=1
(1)
xj
n
P
j=1
ln xj
(1)
xj
OPEN ACCESS
Proof:
harvest
differentiate open-access
hi =
xi
n
c P
(1)
xj
j=1
stocks xi
0.8
with respect to :
0.7
0.6
0.5
hioa
= hioa
ln xi
0.4
0.3
species 1
species 2
species 3
0.1
species 4
species 5
0
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
0.2
elasticity of substitution
n
P
j=1
(1)
xj
n
P
j=1
ln xj
(1)
xj
{z
}
|
<0 (stability)
stocks xi
0.8
0.6
0.4
5 = 0.6
4 = 0.4
3 = 0.3
2 = 0.26
1 = 0.25
0.2
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
time t
high elasticity of substitution = 2
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
11/28
stocks xi
5 = 0.6
4 = 0.4
3 = 0.3
2 = 0.26
1 = 0.25
0.8
0.6
0.4
5 = 0.6
4 = 0.4
3 = 0.3
2 = 0.26
1 = 0.25
0.2
0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
time t
high elasticity of substitution = 2
160
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
time t
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
11/28
OPEN ACCESS
Proposition
If the stock of some species collapses, it will do so in finite time.
Proposition
Assume 1 < 2 < ... < n and consider n species in an initial
open-access equilibrium at some given level of . If
(n + 1 i) i <
(2 )2
c (1 )1
for species i = 1, . . . , n
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
12/28
n
P
j=1
ci xi
(1) j
cj1 xj
60
40
point estimate
for i
1 if 0 < i < 1
0 else
1 if 0 < i < 1
0 else
D10%
D6%
D3%
0.12**
-0.02
-0.49
regressor #
log likelihood
n
ncollapsed
bootstrap
replications
4
-85.41
177
36
1000
0.08
2
-88.53
177
36
1000
0.08***
-0.01**
-0.70**
4
-49.05
177
16
900
0.08***
2
-52.06
177
16
900
0.06***
-0.01***
-0.58***
4
-37.09
177
11
683
0.06***
2
-39.59
177
11
683
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
17/28
y + ln
y ,{hi }
t=0
X
hj
!
e t dt
1
X 1
1
1
hk
= ci xii
hi
+
hj
j6=k
Quaas/Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks,
and Multi-species Fishery Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
17/28
stocks xi
MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS
second-best management of one fish species must be less
strict than first-best managment of the same species
myopic management of one fish species is too strict compared
to second-best managment of the same species
myopic management may lead to collapse of fish stocks that
would not collapse under open access
first-best
second-best
myopic
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
species
species
species
species
species
0.2
0.1
0
species
species
species
species
species
1
2
3
4
5
50
100
time t
150
1
2
3
4
5
50
species
species
species
species
species
100
time t
150
1
2
3
4
5
100
200
300
time t
400
500
j=1,2
consumption res. 2, h2
< 1: substitutes
consumption res. 1, h1
consumption res. 1, h1
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.19/28
SUBSTITUTES < 1
LOW DISCOUNT RATE < 0
1
< 1; > 0
stock of resource 2, x2
< 1; < 0
stock of resource 2, x2
A
O
0
A0
O
1
stock of resource 1, x1
stock of resource 1, x1
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.21/28
SUBSTITUTES < 1
LOW DISCOUNT RATE < 0
1
< 1; > 0
stock of resource 2, x2
< 1; < 0
stock of resource 2, x2
A
O
0
A0
O
1
stock of resource 1, x1
stock of resource 1, x1
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.21/28
degree of complementarity
()
III
IV
II
0
social discount rate
>
() > 1: symmetric steady state is locally unstable
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.22/28
stock of resource 2, x2
stock of resource 2, x2
>
(); < 0
A
III
>
(); > 0
IV
S
A0
0
O
0
O
0
1<<
(); < 0
stock of resource 1, x1
stock of resource 2, x2
stock of resource 2, x2
stock of resource 1, x1
O
0
stock of resource 1, x1
1
C
1<<
(); > 0
II
S
A0
C0
1
stock of resource 1, x1
RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT
resources hit by one-time random shock = (1 , 2 ) with
bounded support at unkown time T (constant hazard rate )
(x1T , x2T ) (x1T + 1 , x2T + 2 )
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.24/28
RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT
resources hit by one-time random shock = (1 , 2 ) with
bounded support at unkown time T (constant hazard rate )
(x1T , x2T ) (x1T + 1 , x2T + 2 )
optimal resilience management:
max E
ZT
0
y + ln
X
hj1
1
1
e t dt + V (x1T + 1 , x2T + 2 )
j=1,2
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.24/28
RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT
resources hit by one-time random shock = (1 , 2 ) with
bounded support at unkown time T (constant hazard rate )
(x1T , x2T ) (x1T + 1 , x2T + 2 )
optimal resilience management:
max E
ZT
0
y + ln
X
hj1
1
1
e t dt + V (x1T + 1 , x2T + 2 )
j=1,2
j=1,2
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.24/28
resource stocks xi
resource stocks xi
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.3
0.33
0.32
0.31
0.3
xS
0.29
xS
= 1.5, = 0.17
0
100
200
300
400
0.29
500
= 1.8, = 0.17
0
100
time t
200
300
400
stock of resource 2, x2
stock of resource 2, x2
1
C
C0
C0
500
time t
1
stock of resource 1, x1
1
stock of resource 1, x1
RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT
0.18
0.16
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
1.5
1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
degree of complementarity,
1.75
1.8
Quaas/van Soest/Baumg
artner (2013). Complementarity, impatience, and the resilience
of natural-resource-dependent economies. J. Environmental Economics and Management.26/28
27/28
Asche, F., F. Steen, and K. G. Salvanes (1997). Market Delineation and Demand Structure. American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
79(1): 139150.
Bjrndal, T. and J. M. Conrad (1987). The Dynamics of an Open Access Fishery. The Canadian Journal of Economics, 20(1): 7485.
Clark, C. W. (1990). Mathematical Bioeconomics. Wiley, New York, 2nd edition.
Costello, C., S. D. Gaines, and J. Lynham (2008). Can Catch Shares Prevent Fisheries Collapse? Science, 321(5896): 16781681.
Dixit, A. K. and J. E. Stiglitz (1977). Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity. American Economic Review, 67(3):
297308.
Fricke, L. and M. F. Quaas (2014). The Economic Causes of Regime Shifts in Marine Ecosystems. Manuscript, Department of Economics,
University of Kiel.
Grafton, R. Q., T. Kompas, and R. Hilborn (2007). Economics of Overexploitation Revisited. Science, 318: 1601.
Harley, S., R. Myers, and A. Dunn (2001). Is catch-per-unit-effort proportional to abundance? Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci., 58(9): 17601772.
Heal, G. and W. Schlenker (2008). Sustainable fisheries. Nature, 455: 10441045.
Kronbak, L. G. (2005). The Dynamics of an Open-access Fishery: Baltic Sea Cod. Marine Resource Economics, 19: 459479.
Nostbakken, L. and T. Bjorndal (2003). Supply Functions for North Sea Herring. Marine Resource Economics, 18(4): 345361.
Opsomer, J.-D. and J. Conrad (1994). An Open-Access Analysis of the Northern Anchovy Fishery. Journal of Environmental Economics
and Management, 27(1): 2137.
Quaas, M. F. and T. Requate (2013). Sushi or Fish Fingers? Seafood Diversity, Collapsing Fish Stocks and Multi-species Fishery
Management. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 115(2): 381422.
Quinn, T. and R. Deriso (1999). Quantitative fishery dynamics. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Ricard, D., C. Minto, O. P. Jensen, and J. K. Baum (2012). Examining the knowledge base and status of commercially exploited marine
species with the RAM Legacy Stock Assessment Database. Fish and Fisheries, 13(4): 380398.
Worm, B., E. Barbier, N. Beaumont, J. Duffy, C. Folke, B. Halpern, J. Jackson, H. Lotze, F. Micheli, S. Ralumbi, E. Sala, K. Selkoe,
J. Stachowicz, and R. Watson (2006). Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science, 314: 787790.
Martin Quaas
University of Kiel Resilience and sustainability of resource-economic systems
28/28