THREAT PRECEPTION IAF/IN

1. THE INDIAN NAVY, NOW FIFTH LARGEST IN THE WORLD , ENJOYES COMPLETE
PREPODERANCE AND THUS FLEXIBILITY IN ALL ASPECTS OF NAVL WARFARE. IT IS
CAPABLE OF SUBJECTING OUR SHIPPING AT SEA AS WELL AS VITAL SHORE
INSTALLATIONS TO INTENSE AIR STRIKES USING BOTH SHORE BASED AND SEA BORNE
STRIKE AIR ELEMENTS. 27 OF HER SURFACE SHIPS ARE EQUIPPED WITH MISSILES.
AMONGST THE AIRCRAFT, 31 HAVE ANTI-SHIP MISSILE CAPABILITY. THE TWO CARRIERS
WILL PROVIDE INDIAN NAVY WITH THE MEANS TO EXTEND ITS POWER IN THE FAR
REACHES OF THE REGION.

2. OUR AREA OF OPERATIONS. THE MAIN CHARACTERISTIC OF THIS AREA IS THAT

MAJOR SHIPPING ROUTES TO EUROPE, AMERICA, MIDDLE EAST, AUSTRALIA AND FAR
EAST, PASS THROUGH IT. IN WAR OUR SHIPPING ON ALL THESE ROUTES WILL BE
VULNERABLE TO INTERDICTION BY THE INDIAN AIR FORCE AND NAVAL AIR ARM,
BESIDES OFCOURSE THE SURFACE, SUBSURFACE AND MINING THREAT. PN HOWEVER
INTENDS TO DEFEND THE ROUTE FROM THE WEST ENSURING UNINTERRUPTED SUPPLY
OF ATLEAST THE MATERIALS OF STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE.

4. NOW I SHALL TALK MORE SPECIFICALLY ABOUT INDIAN NAVAL AIR ARM THREAT
AND THE WAY THIS IS LIKELY TO UNFOLD DURING TENSION AND WAR.

INDIAN NAVAL AIR ARM THREAT & MODUS OPERANDI

5. INDIAN NAVAL AIR ARM IS FORMIDABLE AND INDEED IMPRESSIVE CONSISTING OF:

A. SEA BORNE THREAT:

(1) ONE AIRCRAFT CARRIERS WITH:
SEA HARRIER 22
SEAKINGS 12
(2) SHIP-BORNE SEAKINGS 10

B SHORE BASED THREAT:

(1) JAGUAR 6 (MARITIME)

(2) TU-142 M 8
(3) SEAKINGS 17
(4) IL 38 5
(5) KA-25 6

FIRST I WILL TAKE THE SEA BORNE THREAT. HERE I WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS THE
EFFICACY OF USING CARRIER GROUP FOR THIS PURPOSE AND ITS POTENTIAL TO
CONDUCT OFFENSIVE/DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS. NATURALLY CARRIER AND ITS
ESCORTS WILL BE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THREAT. AND HERE I LIKE TO DISCUSS
CARRIER OPERATIONS IN SOME DETAIL AS I AM SURE THIS WILL COME HANDY TO YOU
GENTLEMEN DURING THE WAR GAMES.
CARRIER GROUP

6. THE FIRST AND FOREMOST ASPECT REQUIRING CONSIDERATION IS THE LIKELY

COMPOSITION OF THE CARRIER GROUP. AS MENTIONED EARLIER THE INDIAN NAVY
POSSESSES ONE AIRCRAFT CARRIER. IT IS CAPABLE OF OPERATING SEA HARRIER FIXED
WING AIRCRAFT WHILE USING THE SKI-JUMPS. THE CARRIER HOWEVER DIFFER IN
CAPABILITIES PERTICULARLY THE NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT CAN BE CARRIED AND
THE SKI JUMP ANGLE. IT IS CONSIDERED THAT VIRAAT WITH A CAPACITY TO
ACCOMMODATE 30 FIXED WING AIRCRAFT WILL BE USED AS A NUCLEUS OF THE
CARRIER GROUP.

7. THE NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT THAT WILL BE CARRIED ON BOARD THE CARRIER

DEPENDS UPON MANY FACTORS WHICH ARE:

A NUMBER OF AIRCRAFT AVAILABLE.

B NATURE OF THE MISSION.
C PRIORITY OF OTHER TASKS REQUIRED TO BE PERFORMED.

8. KEEPING THE ABOVE FACTORS IN MIND, IN MY OPINION, THE INDIAN CARRIER

GROUP WILL HVE ABOUT 18 HARRIERS EMBARKED. COMING ON TO THE ROTARY WING
ASSETS, A FIGURE OF 6-9 SEAKING IN A MIXTURE OF AS W AND ASV ROLES WOULD BE
SUITABLE

9. THE NUMBER OF FIXED WING AIRCRAFT AVAILABLE FOR EMBARKATION PUTS SOME
RESTRICTIONS ON THE EXTENT OF OPERATIONS THAT CAN BE UNDERTAKEN BY THESE
AIRCRAFTS. EVEN IF 18 HARRIERS ARE EMBARKED, ABOUT 14 SERVICEABLE WILL BE
AVAILABLE AT ANY GIVEN TIME, THE NUMBER OF SORTIES THAT CAN BE GENERATED
BY THESE IS 35 TO 42. THE NUMBER OF SORTIES REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN A
CONTINUOUS CAP OF TWO AIRCRAFTS FROM DAWN TO DUSK IS 48 THERE BY LEAVING
NO SORTIES FOR ANY OTHER TASKS. KEEPING THIS IN MIND, I RECKON THAT INDIAN
CARRIER GROUP WILL NOT MAINTAIN A CONTINUOUS CAP AND WILL ONLY MAINTAIN
AIR DEFENCE ALERT OF TWO AIRCRAFT READY FOR TAKE OFF IN ABOUT 3 MINUTES
AND WILL FLY CAP MISSION AT CRITICAL PHASES ONLY. INDIAN NAVAL AIR THREAT
AT SEA BASES TO BE EVALUATED IN TOTALITY AND SOME OF MORE IMPORTANT
OPERATIONS WHICH GO HAND IN HAND WITH MARITIME AIR OPERATIONS WILL NOW
BEING DISCUSSED BREIFLY.

10. INDIAN NAVY POSSES A LARGE NUMBER OF SURFACE COMBATANTS. OF THESE 7

TO 8 SURFACE UNITS CAN BE EASILY SPARED TO EFFECTIVELY ESCORT THE CARRIER.
EACH CARRIER GROUP WILL THEREFORE HAVE 7-8 SHIPS AS ESCORTS.

11. A SCREEN OF EVEN EIGHT UNITS CAN THEORETICALLY COVER THE LIMITING LINES
OF SUBMERGED APPROACH OF THE PN SUBMARINES. IN ADDITION AIR SEARCH RADAR
(965 ONBOARD VIRAAT) PRIVIDES THEORETICAL DETECTION RANGE OF UPTO 320 NM.
THE FORCE WILL HAVE SIMILAR AIR SEARCH RADARS ON EACH ESCORT TO COVER
RANGE OF ABOUT 150 TO 200 HL. SURFACE SURVEILLANCE AND NAVIGATIONAL
RADARS ARE ADDITIONL HELP.

12. NOTWITHSTANDING THE DEFENSIBILITY OF ESCORTS, CARRIER IS A PRIZE

POSSESSION AND PRIDE OF INDIAN NAVY AND THEY WOULD BE AND OUGHT TO BE
EXTREMELY CONSICIOUS AND CAUTIONS TO EXPOSE IT TO RISKS OF ATTACK BY PN
SUBMARINE OR PN/PAF AIR ELEMENTS KNOWING THAT BOTH CAN LOB MISSILES AT IT.
BUT THEN WAR IS GAME OF CALCULATED RISKS.
VIEW FOIL

WHILE DEFENDING IT SELF THROUGH ANTI AIR SCREENS, CAPS AND ASW COVER ONE
SINGLE CARRIER CAN EFFECT BLOCKED OF THE SLOCS FROM RED SEA AND ALSO MAKE
THE MOVEMENT OF THE CONVOY DIFFICULT ALONG OUR COAST. WHILE LRMP
PROVIDE AN UP DATE PICTURE OF CONVOY MOVEMENT, A COORDINATED ATTACK BY
JAGUARS ON AIR BASES AND BY SEA HARRIERS ON CONVOY IS A VIABLE MANOEUVRE.
LACK OF AIR EARLY WARNING FROM SEAWARD OF OUR COAST CAN VERY WELL BE
EXPLOITED FOR SUCH ATTACK. HVU CAN BE THREATENED WEST OF ORMARA WHERE
RANGE OF PAF AIRCRAFTS REDUCES SIGNIFICANTLY, UNTIL PASNI BECOMES A FULLY
INTEGRETED DAY / NIGHT OPERATIONL BASE.

13. THE CARRIER GROUP MAY BE KEPT DOWN SOUTH EAST WAITING FOR OPPORTUNE
MOMENT TO CLOSE IN AND LAUNCH ATTACK ON KARACHI PORT COMPLEX AND PN
MARITIME ASSETS CLOSE TO KARACHI. THE OPPORTUNE MOMENT WILL BE WHEN:

A PN ASVTHREAT IS REDUCED CONSIDERABLY.

B INDIANS GAIN LOCAL AIR SUPERIORITY
C PN SUBMARINE THREAT IS NATURALIZED TO SOME EXTENT

SURVEILLANCE

14. INDIAN NAVAL AIR ARM POSSES A LARGE NUMBER OF LRMP AIRCRAFT. IT IS
ENVISAGED THAT THE LRMPS WILL PROVIDE CONTINUOUS SUPPORT TO THE CARIER
GROUP AND OTHER UNITS OPERATING IN VARIOUS TASK GROUPS BOTH DEFENSIVE AND
OFFENSIVE. THE AVAILABILITY OF LRMP WOULD THERE FORE GREATLY ENHANCE THE
DEFENSIVE ANS WELL OFFENSE POTENTIAL OF THE CARRIER GROUP.

SHORE BASED AIR THREAT

15. THE LIKELY MISSIONS OF THE INDIAN SHORE BASED AIR THREAT AS FOLLOWS:

A ASV STRIKES
B STRIKE AGAINST SHORE INFRASTRUCTURE
C INTERCEPTION OF LRMPA
D THE EMPLOYMENT OF ARM (MARTEL)
E PHOTO RECCEE
F CLANDESTIME OPERATIONS AGAINST SHORE BASES/VAS/VPS.

ASV STRIKES

16. THE IAF POSSES 8 MARITIME JAGUARS FITTED WITH AGAVE RADAR AND CAPABLE
OF CARRYING THE SEA-EAGLE MISSILES THAT HAS A RANGE OF 110 KM, AND IS
CONSIDERED TO BE THE BEST AMONGST SEA SKIMMING ANTI-SHIP WEAPONS (SLIDE).
THE JAGUARS HAS A RANGE OF 294NM IN THE LOW LOW LOW PROFILE AND THEREFORE
CAN REACH BEHIND ORMARA , OPERATING FROM JAM RANGE. IN THE HI-LO-HI PROFILE
THIS ROLE BOTH BY DAY AND NIGHT AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THESE OPERATIONS
WOULD COMMENCE ON THE FIRST AVAILABLE OPPORTUNITY.
STRIKE AGAINST SHORE INFRASTRUCTURE

17. ALL THE NAVAL SHORE ESTABLISHMENT IE PORT QASIM, KARACHI AREA, JNB.
VPS, JNB AND ALL OTHERS INCLUDING PASNI AND GWADAR, EXTENDING PRACTICALLY
RIGHT UPTO THE IRANIAN BORDER ARE WELL WITHIN REACH OF HI-LO-HI PROFILES OF
IAF JAGUARS, MIR-2000. A TYPICAL PROFILE IS SHOWN ON THIS VIEW FOIL.

CLANDESTINE OPERATION

18. PARA/HELO DROP CAPABILITY OF THE IAF CAN BE PUT TO USE AT OPPORTUNE
MOMENT TO SABOTAGE VITAL PN FACILITIES. THE IDEA MAY APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE
FARFETCHED BBUT GIVEN THE RELATIVE EASE WITH WHICH LOW FLYING AIRCRFT CAN
APPROACH OUR COASTLINE, SPECIALLY AT NIGHT, WITH CHANCE OF INTERCEPTION
ONLY BY F-16S - IT MAY BE PUT TO USE.

INDIAN AIR FORCE OPERATIONS

1. IN THE DAYS PRIOR TO HOSTILITIES, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD BE BUSY IN
CARRYING OUT RECONNAISSANCE SORTIES,WITH THE HELP OF ITS HIGH FLYING MIG-
25R AIRCRAFT, IN ORDER TOGATHER INFORMATION ABOUT BLUE LAND’S LATEST ARMY
AND AIR FORCE DEPLOYMENTS AND DISPERSALS. ALSO.THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD
UNDERTAKE ELINT MISSIONS TO LOCATE/RECONFIRMED THE LOCATION OF BLUE
RADAR SENSORS ND IMPORTANT MILITARY COMMUNICATION CENTRES. A HIGH STATE
OF ALERT WOULD BE MAINTAINED AND CAPS WOULD BE FLOWNAT CERTAIN TIMES OF
DAY/NIGHT

2. HOWEVER, NOW HAVING RECEIVED ORDERS THAT HOSTILITIES BE STARTED

AGAINST LAND, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WILL LAUNCH PRE-EMPTIVE STRIKES AGAINST
PRE-DESIGNATED, TOP PRIORITY, BLUE AIR FORCE TARGETS, TO ACHIEVE A
FAVOURABLE AIR SITUATION FOR CONDUCT OF LAND AND NAVAL OPERATIONS.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD ALSO ENDEAVOUR TO PROVIDE
EFFECTIVE AIR DEFENCE TO OWN VULNERABLE AREAS AND VULNERABLE POINTS
AGAINST ENEMY AIR STRIKES.

3. IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE ITS TASKS, ALONGWITH OPERATIONS ELSE WHERE, THE

INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD REPEATEDLY ATTACK PAF AIRFIELDS IN KARACHI COMPLEX
AND ALONG THE COAST TO KEEP THEM OFF BALANCED. BLUE NAVAL AIR BASES AND
NAVAL FACILITIES/JUMP OFF BASES ALONG THE COAST, WILL BE NEUTRALIZED. BLUE
NAVAL AIR BASE AND NAVAL FACILITIES/JUMP OFF BASES ALONG THE COAST, WILL BE
NEUTRALIZED. BLUE NAVAL FACILITIES/INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE MAIN PORT
COMPLEX, INCLUDING SURVEILLANCE RADARS WOULD BE ATTACKED. MAXIMUM
EFFORT WOULD BE MADE TO FURTHER REDUCE THE ALREADY LIMITED SEA-WARD
RADAR AIR SURVEILLANCE CAPABILITY.

4. INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD ALSO UNDERTAKE AIR STRIKES AGAINST BLUE HVUS,
WHENEVER REQUIRED, IN AUGMENTATION OF THE DEDICATED JAGUARS. THE INDIAN
AIR FORCE WOULD ALSO LAUNCH ATTACKS AGAINST SELECTED STRATEGIC ECONOMIC
TARGETS OF HIGH VALUE, DEEP IN BLUE LAND AND ALONG THE BLUE LAND COAST
LINE.
5. LASTLY, IN PLANNED AMPHIBIOUS LANDINGS, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD
PROVIDE PRELANDING/POST LANDING RECCEE SUPPORT AND AIR DEFENCE CAPS,CLOSE
AIR SUPPORT /INTERDICTION STRIKE SUPPORT DURING THE ASSAULT.

6. NOW, IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE AFORMENTIONED TASKS, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE
HAS THE FOLLOWING ASSETS WITH ITS SOUTH WESTERN COMMAND.

7. OUR WESTERN AIR COMMAND HAS ABOUT 286 AIRCRAFT WHICH CAN GENERATE A
TOTAL OF 643 SORTIES DAILY. OF THESE, 234 SORTIES WOULD BE STRIKE /ATTACK
SORTIES AND 409 SORTIES WOULD BE AIR DEFENCE SORTIES. AGAINST THESE, BLUE
LAND SOUTHERN AIR COMMAND CAN GENERATE ONLY ABOUT 305 SORTIES, OF WHICH
76 WOULD BE STRIKE/ATTACK AND 229 WOULD BE AIR DEFENCE SORTIES. WHILE
PLANNING AND CONDUCTING AIR OPERATIONS AGAINST BLUE NAVAL TARGETS AND
OTHER COASTAL AIR FIELDS, MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE WOULD BE TAKEN BY BLUE-
LAND’S EXTREMELY LIMITED LOW LEVEL RADAR COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST.

8. MOST OF THE AIR RAIDS AGAINST BLUE LAND’S COASTAL TARGETS WOULD BE
PLANNED AS SHOWN ON THIS SLIDE

9. BLUE LAND MILITARY/NAAVAL TARGETS AND STRATEGIC ECONOMIC TARGETS, TO

BE ATTACKED ON THE FIRST DAY, IN KARACHI COMPLEX AND ALONG THE COAST ARE
AS FOLLOWS

10 THE NUMBER OF RAIDS /SORTIES REQUIRED FOR THE NEUTRALIZATION OF THESE

TARGETS AND REQUIRED WEAPON LOADS ARE ALSO MENTIONED ON THIS SLIDE. TO
CARRY OUT APPRECIABLE DAMAGE TO BLUE TARGETS, THE INDIAN AIR FORCE WOULD
SEND 21 AIR RAIDS CONSISTING OF 144 STRIKES SORTIES, ON THE FIRST DAY. IT MAY BE
NOTED THAT DUE TO THE RAPID RUNWAY REPAIR CAPABILITY AVAILABLE WITH BLUE
AIR FORCE, THE BLUE RUNWAYS ARE LIKELY TO BE PUT OUT OF AACTION ONLY FOR
ABOUT SIX HOURS, AFTER EACH ATTACK.