Chang 1

Songhee Chang
Mr. N. Parsons
Grade 9 Extended Math
October 29th 2014
Exponential Growth
Section A:
This bacterium could grow a lot in a small amount of time
under an ideal situation. It is complicated to measure using a
manual calculation, therefore scientists decided to connect this
uncontrollable growth of bacterium E.coli to the modeling
exponential function in math. The number of growth can be shown
in the table below (Table 1, Pattern of E.colis growth).

From the table we can observe that the pattern of Bacterias

growth is doubling every hour. I have discovered this pattern by
using exponential function that can be expressed in the form as
follows.

y=6(2)x

y The number of E.colis cells.

6 The initial amount of E.colis that we had in zero
hours.
2 The parameter of how big it is changing overtime.
x The number of hours it splits into new cells.
In order to observe the growth of this bacterium more clearly,
we can use a graph for more visuals.

Chang 2

The growth of Bacterium E.coli overtime

120000000
100000000
80000000

# of Bacteria cells (y)

60000000
40000000
20000000
0

Time (hour)(x)

After making the graph I can describe that the shape of the
graph that I have plotted is a perfect curve line. It starts from the
smallest number of bacteria cells, up to the largest in 24 hours.
By using the exponential function, I have discovered the
number of bacterium after 24 hours. Instead of counting the number
of bacterium manually, we can insert every number into the
exponential function created above. The total number of bacterium I
have discovered in the 24th hour is 100663296.
If we divide the 24th hour 10066329622 = 50331648, this
number does not equal to the 12th hour of E.coli growth, however
this number does equal to the 23rd hour of E.coli growth. This is
because of the equation that I have discovered. If we take a look at
the equation, the number of E.colis are multiplied by 2 and then
multiplied again by the power of x (the hours), so if we divide the
total number of E.colis by 2 it would end up with the total number
of the E.colis before. The visual interpretation below may help you
to understand the explanation.
y=6(2)x
y=6(2)x
y=6x
In order to know the number of bacterium after 12 hours and
to check whether the answer on the table matches with the
exponential calculations, it can be shown by the work below.
y=6(2)x
y=6(2)12
y=24576

Chang 3

From the result of the calculation, we can see that the number in the
table and in the calculation is a match! As a result, the rule that I
have built in the form of exponential function works in this type of
situation.
I strongly believe that the growth of bacterium can be grown
infinitely unless the person who has the bacterium goes through a
cure to get rid of it or eventually passes away from the bacterium.
Either way, if none of these are current, it probably may grow
infinitely as numbers are infinite.
Section B:
The country that I have chosen for Exponential Modeling is
England. The table below shows the population data of England
rounded off to the millionth in every tenth year.
Years
(Starting
from
1900)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100

Years
Population
(Starting
(Rounded
from
to millions)
1800)
0
40.5
10
42.3
20
46
30
48.2

Population
(Rounded
to millions)
11
14
16
18

40

20

50
52.3 60
55.4 70

23

80
57.6 90
59
100

35.2

110

42.3

120

46

130

48.2

140

51

150

52.3

160

55.4

170

56.3

180

57.6

190

59

200

59.5

51

56.3

59.5

26
32
35.4
40.5

Chang 4

Population Graph 1: The first 100 years (1900-2010)

From the graph, we can see that the accuracy of this

exponential curve is just 40%, since we can only see 4 points that
touch the line among 10. Therefore this exponential function is not
the best to express the growth of population in England between
1900-2000. The function found using the exponential regression can
be shown as follows.
y=39.972e0.0420x
39.972 Refers to the point where the graph starts
e constant = 2.71 (3sgf)
0.0420x
Exponent that changes over time
Since the accuracy of the graph is just 40%, it is not reliable to
be used to estimate the future population growth, as if it were above
50% it might be somewhat accurate.
Excel uses e in the exponential function in order to present
the natural base of algorithm. It is meant to help people to calculate
powers of other bases in order to use the exponentiation operator.
Besides, it uses e to allow the audience to predict an unpredicted
or uncontrollable growth.

Population Graph 2: The first 200 years (1800-2000)

Chang 5
From

the graph, we can see that the

accuracy of this
exponential curve is
25%, since we can
only see 5 points
that touch the line
among 20. In this
case, this graph is
even less accurate
than the one above.
The exponential
function is not the
best to express the
growth of population in England between 1800-2000. The function
found using the exponential regression can be seen as follows.
y=14.969e0.0082x
14.969 Refers to the point where the graph starts
e constant = 2.71 (3sgf)
0.0082x
Exponent that changes over time
The curve of this graph does not fit the set of points quite
well, because it only touches 25% of the points in the graph. This
curve can only be used accurately for the first 5 decades. It will also
match with the year of 1960. The greatest error of this curve
occurred when it reach the year of 1880, since that point was the
furthest away from the line.
If we compare these two graphs, it is better to use the first set
of function since it has a bigger accuracy than the second one,
however it may be because of other factors that has affected
Englands growth of population such as the Black death, world wars
and many others. A suggestion that can be given about the visual
presentation of Englands population growth is by recording it every
50-100 years as many events might happen during every century.
Section C:
y=8(2.26)0.012x+3
I chose this equation as my final equation, simply because it the first
point and the last point matched the line perfectly. Although it does
not fit most of the points exactly or accurately it matches at least %
of the points in the graph. From my final exponential equation there
are two parameters that I can choose in which it represents
something in real life. The parameters are A and B. A refers to
the initial number of population that is observed. For example, in
this case is the population of the year in the 1800s. B is a constant
to show the amount of population that duplicates in each year.

Chang 6

In this
screenshot you
will be able
to see that,
have placed the
formula into
Grapher.

In this screenshot you will be

able to observe that I have
started to place some
units in to create a best fit.
However this was all done
by estimation. My first goal
was to be able to allow the
first point to perfectly match
the best fit. It turns out
that the A parameter controls
where the line crosses in
the y intercept.

In this
screenshot
Ive
started to
change
the B
parameter
in order to
make sure
most of
the points
match

Chang 7
with the line of best fit. I soon discovered that the B parameter
controls the slope of the line. The slope seems great, but now I
needed to add more steepness into the line in order to make sure
the best-fit touches the last point.
In this
screenshot
you can see
that I have
added more
steepness into
the line of
best fit, in this
case the k.
After
changing the
value of k a
bit, I soon
began to
notice that k
controlled the
steepness and
gradient of
the line, which is how I managed to get the line of best fit to touch
the last point perfectly!
In this screenshot you can see that I have
changed the
value of c in
order to allow
more points
to touch with the
line of best
fit. I have
discovered
that c is very
similar to the
parameter of
A, they both
change where
the line of best fit crosses the y intercept.
Englands actual population in 2010 is reaching to 59.6 million
citizens. However if we insert the year into the calculation, it can be
seen as follows.
Y= 8(2.26)0.012x+4
Y= 8(2.26)0.012(2010)+4
Y= 2780901074

Chang 8

If we compare these two datas, we can see that there is a big

difference from the actual data and the calculation. The error is
reaching up till 9.8%. Therefore the exponential function used in the
graph is not that accurate but is close enough.
If we double the population of England from the total of the
year 2000, we will reach the total in the year of
I believe that it is important to develop a function using
manuals since it is more accurate and we can minimize the errors
that is affected by external factors of the population in growth. In
fact, by using the Excel software it will make a larger error with less
accuracy than when it is made with manual Grapher methods.
The accuracy of exponential models change as the number of
years get larger, because it takes the position in the exponent part
which can double the number of constant that for sure affects the
number of change.
If the population increases as the years go by, I believe the
real life consequences of exponential population growth will be the
explosion of population, meaning over capacity of citizens in a small
area (in this case England). However, I do not believe that a
population can grow at this rate infinitely, because like I have stated
previously there are other factors that may affect population growth
in certain places and time, due to spreading diseases, war,
migration and many other reasons.
In conclusion, although population growth may increase overtime, it
is highly unlikely for an over-capacity of citizens happening, as there
are factors that steady this.