Adoption Characteristics

Base Year (BY)

Saturation Percentage (SP)
Start of fast growth (Yc)
Takeover Time (Tm)

2010
100%
2015
7

2010
100%
2012
7

Year
Market Penetration1
Market Penetration2

2010
0.48%
3.07%

2011
0.89%
5.60%

2012
1.66%
10.00%

2013
3.07%
17.23%

2014
5.60%
28.06%

S-Curve Illus
100%
90%
80%
70%
Y-Variable
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1

8
Time

Often business analysts need to model the adoption of a new product or service for financial planning. There are se

saturation What is the maximum expected penetration after the product becomes mainstream? i.e. what is th
start of fast growth By this year, the penetration will be 10% of the saturation value, and it will start to grow ra

takeover time How long it will take for the product to catch on? The operational assumption in the formula
The s-curve model focuses in the early phases of the product lifecycle, until maturity is reached. Penetration decay
The formula for each years penetration would simply be:
saturation/(1+81^((hypergrowth+takeover/2-year)/takeover))

2015
10.00%
42.22%

2016
17.23%
57.78%

2017
28.06%
71.94%

2018
42.22%
82.77%

2019
57.78%
90.00%

2020
71.94%
94.40%

2021
82.77%
96.93%

2022
90.00%
98.34%

2023
94.40%
99.11%

2024
96.93%
99.52%

S-Curve Illustration

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

Time

r financial planning. There are several approaches, but a common one is the s-curve (see Wikipedia article). Here is a simple implementatio

omes mainstream? i.e. what is the value that the top of the s-curve will reach?
n value, and it will start to grow rapidly. 10% was an arbitrary choice to simplify the model, and by doing some math you could change the fo

tional assumption in the formula is that this number of years after the start of fast growth, the product would have reached 90% of the satur

ty is reached. Penetration decay is NOT covered by this model.

2025
98.34%
99.74%

2026
99.11%
99.86%

Here is a simple implementation in Excel that can be easily added to your spreadsheets. It reduces all the math to just three parameters:

math you could change the formula to any value. It is a reasonable choice in most cases. Well call this parameter hypergrowth

ave reached 90% of the saturation value and will start to slow down. Again, 90% is an arbitrary value I chose.

h to just three parameters:

meter hypergrowth