Escolar Documentos
Profissional Documentos
Cultura Documentos
V Hng c
Gim c Nghin cu v nh gi
y ban Qun l Kinh t, Perth, Australia
i hc Edith Cowan, Australia
i hc M TPHCM
Nguyn nh Thin
i hc M TPHCM
1.
GII THIU
C S L THUYT
Moodys
Tp trung nh gi
trin vng v t l vn
da vo cc khon l
d kin.
Tp trung nh gi hot ng iu
chnh ri ro hiu sut v kh nng
tng trng vn t cc khon li
nhun
nh gi ca t chc xp
hng
(C tc ng t bn ngoi)
Kt qu xp hng ring
ca ngn hng l mc
sn trong cch nh gi
ny
Da trn cch nh gi
xp hng ring ca
Moodys v ngn hng
v cc yu t h tr
Da trn:
Da trn:
Da trn:
- Ch s kinh t v m.
- Trung bnh xp hng
cc ngn hng.
Khng.
nh gi trin vng h
thng ngn hng da trn
ri ro h thng ngn
hng.
Khng c
-T s kinh t v m
-Ngnh v mi trng kinh doanh
nh gi m rng
XHTN quc gia
Ri ro h thng c tc ng
n xp hng ngn hng?
Khng.
nh gi trin vng h
thng ngn hng da
trn ri ro h thng
ngn hng.
Pht trin cch nh
gi xp hng ring da
trn nh gi b sung
(2007)
C, da vo:
- T s v m ti
- Ngnh v mi trng kinh doanh
Trong cch nh gi tnh hnh ti chnh cho tng ngn hng, Lee v cc tc gi
(2012) xut cc ch tiu ti chnh trong phn tch nh lng. Cc ch tiu c phn
thnh nhiu nhm khc nhau da trn: t s v li sut (6 ch tiu), ch tiu li nhun (14
ch tiu), cu trc vn (7 ch tiu), cht lng tn dng (11 ch tiu), tnh thanh khon (5
ch tiu). Cu trc ny da trn h thng phn tch CAMELS nhng c s iu chnh, b
sung t cc thng tin trong phng php xp hng ca Fitch trong nh gi phn tch cc
nh ch ti chnh v c bit l h thng ngn hng.
Tm li, cc nghin cu nh gi v tnh n nh v tnh hnh ti chnh ca ngn
hng u xut hai nhm ch tiu c xem xt khi xp hng l: (i) yu t v m (bao
gm cc yu t nh chnh tr, lut php, li sut, lm pht); (ii) yu t vi m (cc ch tiu
ti chnh ca tng ngn hng) (Liliana, 2001; Mabwe v Robert, 2010). Trong , khi
xem xt cc ch tiu ti chnh th CAMELS l h thng c s dng ph bin (Dang
Uyen, 2011; Kabir v Dey, 2012).
Ngn hng Nh nc (2012) thc hin ch trng phn loi NHTM v ngn
hng quc doanh trong nc nhm mc ch phn b hn mc tng trng tn dng. Cc
t chc tn dng c phn loi thnh 4 nhm: (i) Nhm 1 tng trng ti a 17%, (ii)
Nhm 2 tng trng ti a 15%, (iii) Nhm 3 tng trng ti a 8%; v (iv) Nhm 4
khng c tng trng.
Trong khi , cc nghin cu v xy dng, xp hng tn nhim NHTM Vit Nam
khng ph bin. Nhm tc gi khng th tm c bt k mt nghin cu chnh thng
no v xp hng cc ngn hng Vit Nam, ngoi tr nghin cu duy nht c cp
trong nm 2012. Trong bo co thng nin ch s tn nhim Vit Nam 2012, Nguyn
Hu Lc v cc tc gi (2012) cng b xp hng tn nhim ca 32 NHTM trong nc
ln u tin. Tuy nhin, cc ngn hng phn ng mnh m vi kt qu xp hng do kt
qu cha nh gi ng tnh hnh ti chnh ca ngn hng v quan trng hn, cc tiu ch
xp hng mang tnh ch quan v qu trnh xp hng cha y v cha th hin c
tnh minh bch cn thit.
Cc nghin cu v xp hng tn nhim ti Vit Nam cha c quan tm ng mc
mc d y l mt ti rt cn thit v mang tnh ng dng cao. c bit, nhng nghin
cu v xp hng tn nhim ngn hng li cng him.
2.2 Xp hng tn nhim
Xp hng tn nhim (Credit rating) l thut ng do John Moody a ra vo nm
1909 trong n phm cng b kt qu xp hng tri phiu ngnh ng st (Lawrence,
2010; Moodys, 2013). H thng xp hng trnh by trong bo co ny c k hiu gm
3 ch ci ABC c xp ln lt l Aaa (mc n nh cao nht) n C (mc ri ro cao
nht). K t n nay, cc t chc xp hng ng vai tr quan trng trong th trng ti
chnh bng cc kt qu xp hng nh gi cht lng ca sn phm trn th trng ti
chnh.
Moodys (2013) cho rng xp hng tn nhim nhm mc ch nh gi cc ri ro tn
dng lin quan n ngha v ti chnh ca mt t chc trong tng lai. Xp hng tn
nhim di hn nh gi ri ro ca cc khon tn dng c thi gian o hn t mt nm tr
ln, phn nh kh nng thc hin cam kt tr n v ri ro suy gim ngun ti chnh trong
tng lai. Trong khi , xp hng ngn hn ch dnh cho cc khon tn dng o hn
di 13 thng v ch nh gi v ri ro tr n. i vi ngn hng, xp hng th hin quan
im ca Moodys v mt ngn hng nhm o lng kh nng ngn hng cn tr gip
t bn ngoi trnh s v (Moodys, 2007).
Theo Standard and Poors (2012), xp hng tn nhim l nh gi kh nng tn dng
ca bn phi thc hin ngha v ti chnh trong tng lai da trn nhng yu t hin ti
v quan im ca ngi nh gi. Ni cch khc, xp hng tn dng c coi nh l ch
Hm lin tc n iu tng/gim
Hnh 2 biu din hm thnh vin v mc tt ca ch s li nhun/tng ti sn
(ROE). Nh vy nu mt ngn hng c mc ROE = 0 th c mc thnh vin l 0
tng ng im s cho ch tiu ny l 0 vi ngha l ROE ca ngn hng khng
tt. ROE cng cao im thnh vin cng cao, cho thy mc tt ca ch tiu ny
cng tng ln. Khi ROE 22% th mc thnh vin l 1, tc l mc ny ngn hng
c mc sinh li rt tt v c mc im tuyt i. Ty vo tng gi tr ca ROE th
im s thnh vin s khc nhau v di gi tr l lin tc. Trong trng hp ny, im s
ca ch tiu ROE tng tuyn tnh theo tng nhm gi tr.
Xy dng bi cc tc gi
Xy dng bi cc tc gi
Vi hai cch biu din nh trn, l thuyt m ang m ra cch ng dng trong tnh
ton im s cc ch tiu ti chnh. Hm thnh vin biu din nh Hnh 2 i din rt tt
cho ch tiu c tnh cht cng ln cng tt. V i vi cc ch tiu c tnh cht tnh
ton ti u th cch biu din nh Hnh 3 l ph hp. Khi , im nhn s l im i
din gi tr ti u.
3.
Tnh cht cng ln cng tt. Mt s ch tiu ti chnh mang tnh cht ny nh T l
sinh li trn tng ti sn (ROA), T l sinh li trn vn ch (ROE), Li nhun trn
mi c phn (EPS), T l ti sn sinh li. Vi cc ch tiu ny, ngn hng no c gi
tr ln hn s c c im s tt hn. V ngn hng c gi tr nh nht trong mu
nghin cu s mang gi tr 0 v gi tr ln nht s c gi tr l 1.
(ii) Tnh ton ti u, i din l cc ch tiu C cu vn, T trng cho vay, T trng cc
loi ti sn trn tng ti sn. Vi cc ch tiu ny, im ti u s gip ngn hng c
cc ch tiu ti chnh trong 6 nhm ch tiu trong nghin cu trn c vai tr v ngha
ring. V vy, trong phm vi nghin cu ny, vi 6 nhm ch tiu xem xt bao qut ton
b hot ng ca ngn hng, trng s bng nhau s c p dng.
Tm li, phng php chn lc cc ch tiu ti chnh lm tiu ch nh gi hiu qu
hot ng v ri ro ca NHTM ti Vit Nam da trn c s: (i) C s l thuyt v qun
tr h thng ngn hng (Nguyn Vn Nam v cc tc gi, 2004; Nguyn Minh Kiu,
2007; Peter v Sylvia, 2008); (ii) Cc thng l ngn hng quc t (BIS, 2011); (iii) Bng
chng thc nghim t cc quc gia khc (Judijanto v Khmaladze, 2003; Gupta v
Aggarwal, 2012; Kabir v Dey, 2012); (iv) c im hot ng ca h thng ngn hng
Vit Nam (NHNN, 2013).
6.
ton quc t (Bank for International Settlements BIS) ban hnh nm 2011. y l mt
ch tiu c xem xt nhiu nht, ch nht trong phn tch ti chnh ca mt ngn hng.
Nhm c cu ti chnh gip nh phn tch nh gi tt hn v kh nng thanh khon ca
ngn hng (Nguyn Vn Nam v cc tc gi, 2004; Peter v Sylvia, 2008).
6.5 Cht lng tn dng/ti sn
Cp tn dng cho cc t chc, c nhn vi mc ri ro cao hn s gip ngn hng thu
li ngun li nhun cao hn. Tuy nhin, ngn hng phi i mt vi vic mt i ngun
vn v lm gim li nhun ca ngn hng do phi trch lp d phng ri ro. Ngun vn
d phng ri ro c nh gi l ngun vn cht, khng c xem l ti sn sinh li
(Judijanto v Khmaladze, 2003). Nhm ch tiu ny c Podviezko v Gineviius
(2010), Kabir v Dey (2012); Lee v cc tc gi (2012); Nguyn Vn Nam v cc tc gi
(2004); Peter v Sylvia, 2008 xut s dng trong m hnh nh gi mc ri ro ti
chnh trong cc nghin cu trc y.
Theo Moodys (2012), cht lng ti sn l yu t chnh quyt nh thu nhp trong
tng lai. Cht lng ti sn gip cho vn tip tc c sinh li. Danh mc cho vay l
thnh phn ln nht trong bng cn i k ton ca ngn hng. Do , cht lng tn
dng c coi l mt thnh phn quan trng trong vic xc nh mc tn nhim ca
ngn hng.
6.6 Tc tng trng
Nhm ch tiu tng trng l b ch tiu o lng tc pht trin ca ngn hng.
Vi mc tng trng m, ngn hng ang bo mn ngun vn v ngc li mc tng
trng dng, ngn hng ngy cng pht trin. T , nh phn tch, c ng c th thy
c tim nng tng trng ca ngn hng. Nhm ch tiu ny c cc tc gi Judijanto
v Khmaladze (2003), Podviezko v Gineviius (2010), Lee v cc tc gi (2012) dng
trong m hnh nh gi, kho st n nh ca ngn hng trong nghin cu ca mnh.
Bng 2.
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Ch tiu
Cch tnh
Hiu sut sinh li (Earning ability )
T l sinh li trn vn ch bnh qun (ROAE ) Li nhun sau thu/VCSH bnh qun
T l sinh li trn ti sn bnh qun (ROAA) Li nhun trc thu v li vay/TTS bnh qun
Chi ph huy ng vn
Chi ph li vay/Tng n
T l li cn bin (NIM)
(Thu nhp li vay v u t - chi ph tr li tin gi v n khc)/TTS sinh li
T l thu nhp ngoi li cn bin
(Thu nhp ngoi li - Chi ph ngoi li)/Ti sn sinh li
T l thu nhp li thun
Li thun/Tng thu nhp
T l sinh li hot ng (NPM)
Li nhun sau thu/Tng thu t hot ng
Thu nhp cn bin trc nhng giao dch c (Li nhun sau thu - Li (l) t mua bn chng khon u t - Li thun t hot
bit (NRST)
ng khc)/TTS
Thu nhp trn c phiu (EPS)
(Li nhun sau thu - C tc u i)/Tng s c phiu thng lu hnh hin ti
Hiu qu qun l (Management)
Chi ph/thu nhp (Cost to income)
Chi ph qun l/Thu nhp thun t hot ng
Chi ph/tng ti sn (Cost to asset)
Chi ph qun l/Tng ti sn
Li nhun t dch v/Tng li nhun
Li nhun t dch v/Tng li nhun
Thanh khon (Liquidity)
T l cho vay/Tng ti sn (LAR)
T l cho vay/Tng ti sn (LAR)
T l cho vay/Tng tin gi (LDR)
T l cho vay/Tng tin gi (LDR)
C cu + an ton ti chnh (Capital Adequacy)
T l an ton vn (CAR)
Vn t c/Tng ti sn "C" ri ro
T l d tr thanh khon
Tng ti sn thanh khon/Tng ti sn
T s tin mt v tri phiu Chnh ph
T s tin mt v tri phiu Chnh ph/Tng ti sn
T l ti sn sinh li
(Tng ti sn - Tin mt v kim loi qu - Ti sn c nh - Ti sn khc)/TTS
T l VCSH
VCSH/Ti sn %
T l VCSH/N phi tr
VCSH/N phi tr %
T l VCSH/D n cho vay
VCSH/D n cho vay %
Cht lng tn dng/ti sn (Asset quality)
T l n xu
(N nhm 3 + N nhm 4 + N nhm 5)/Tng n
T l trch lp d phng cho vay
D phng/D n cho vay
Tc tng trng (Management quality)
Tc tng trng tng ti sn %
(TTS 2 - TTS 1)/TTS1
Tc tng trng EPS %
(EPS 2 - EPS 1)/EPS1
Tc tng trng tn dng %
(D n cho vay 2 - D n cho vay 1)/D n cho vay 1
Tc tng trng huy ng %
(Vn huy ng 2 - Vn huy ng 1)/Vn huy ng 1
Ngun: Kt qu ca nghin cu
Ghi ch: TTS: Tng ti sn; VCSH: Vn ch s hu; EPS: Thu nhp trn mi c phn
(a) mt xc sut
xc nh im s ca 2 ch tiu c tnh cht khc nhau l: (i) cng ln cng tt v (ii) tnh
ton ti u c thc hin nh sau.
(b) mt xc sut
Sau khi xy dng hm thnh vin t bc M ha v cch biu din hm thnh vin
giai on xc nh Lut m, im thnh vin s c xc nh thng qua bc Gii m.
Hnh 4.a, vi ch tiu c tnh cht cng ln cng tt, nu ngn hng c tc tng
trng tng ti sn l 33% th im s ch tiu ny l 0,72. Trong khi , Hnh 4.b ch
ra rng ch tiu c tnh cht tnh ton ti u, nu ngn hng c t l cho vay/Tng tin
gi mc trung bnh ngnh (81,5%) s t c im ti a l 1.
7.5 im s v xp loi
im xp hng s l im trung bnh c tnh ly t cc im thnh phn ca ton
b 27 ch tiu ti chnh.:
Trong :
o
n: s ch tiu
o
di: im s ca ch tiu i
ngha, mc ch ca xp hng l o lng hiu qu hot ng, mc ri ro, v
trin vng pht trin ca ngn hng. Tng im c gi tr t [0;1]. Vi gi thuyt ban u,
xc sut hot ng n nh ca ngn hng tun theo phn phi chun. Do vy, nghin cu
xc nh thng s ca phn phi chun xc nh mc im xp hng c gi tr l: (i)
trung bnh = 0,5; v (ii) lch chun = 0,166 tnh ton. Theo l thuyt thng k
cc gi tr nm trong khong [ - 3 ; + 3] (chim 99,8% d liu). Do , phn phi
chun c trung bnh l 0,5 v lch chun v 0,166 s bao ph gn ht di gi tr t
[0;1] (Zimmermann, H.J., 1991).
8.
KT QU
Bng 3.
STT
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
Ch tiu
Hiu sut sinh li (Earning ability )
T l sinh li trn vn ch bnh qun (ROAE )
T l sinh li trn ti sn bnh qun (ROAA)
Chi ph huy ng vn
T l li cn bin (NIM)
T l thu nhp ngoi li cn bin
T l thu nhp li thun
T l sinh li hot ng (NPM)
Thu nhp cn bin trc nhng giao dch c bit
Thu nhp trn c phiu (EPS)
Hiu qu qun l (Management)
Chi ph/thu nhp (Cost to income)
Chi ph/tng ti sn (Cost to asset)
Li nhun t dch v/Tng li nhun
Thanh khon (Liquidity)
T l cho vay/Tng ti sn (LAR)
T l cho vay/Tng tin gi (LDR)
C cu + an ton ti chnh (Capital Adequacy)
T l an ton vn (CAR)
T l d tr thanh khon
T s tin mt v tri phiu Chnh ph
T l ti sn sinh li
T l VCSH
T l VCSH/N phi tr
T l VCSH/D n cho vay
Cht lng tn dng/ti sn (Asset quality)
T l n xu
T l trch lp d phng cho vay
Tc tng trng (Management quality)
Tc tng trng tng ti sn %
Tc tng trng EPS %
Tc tng trng tn dng %
Tc tng trng huy ng %
2011
2010
GAMMA(5,96; 1,74)
GAMMA(0,437; 2,93)
NORMAL(-9,45; 1,98)
GAMMA(0,576; 6,42)
GAMMA(0,139; 4,86)
NORMAL(90; 11,3)
NORMAL(31,7; 10,1)
NORMAL(1,17; 0,764)
WEIBULL(1.303; 1,06)
WEIBULL(12,2; 1,62)
WEIBULL(1,55; 2,73)
NORMAL(5,95; 1,22)
NORMAL(2,81; 0,686)
WEIBULL(0,557; 1,43)
NORMAL(75,6; 18,6)
NORMAL(39,3; 10,8)
GAMMA(0,335; 3,46)
NORMAL(1.743; 793)
NORMAL(47; 10,9)
WEIBULL(1,37; 2,77)
GAMMA(6,18; 1,29)
NORMAL(41,5; 10)
NORMAL(1,22; 0,345)
EXPONENTIAL(8,92)
NORMAL(45,3; 13,4)
NORMAL(97; 27)
NORMAL(45,8; 12,6)
NORMAL(92; 23,3)
NORMAL(12,8; 7,17)
NORMAL(27,5; 9,74)
NORMAL(0,932; 0,36)
NORMAL(87,7; 7,36)
GAMMA(3,32; 1,99)
GAMMA(4,23; 1,92)
GAMMA(9,52; 1,73)
WEIBULL(6,89; 1,24)
NORMAL(30,8; 8,72)
GAMMA(2,43; 0,962)
NORMAL(87,6; 5,91)
GAMMA(7,26; 0,928)
GAMMA(7,69; 1,15)
GAMMA(9,87; 1,86)
NORMAL(2,21; 0,945)
GAMMA(0,258; 5,13)
NORMAL(1,44; 0,73)
LOGN(0,671; 0,374)
NORMAL(24,5; 31,2)
NORMAL(-13,6; 33,5)
NORMAL(14,3; 9,01)
NORMAL(12,6; 17)
NORMAL(60,6; 29)
NORMAL(14,4; 48,2)
WEIBULL(46,7; 1,19)
WEIBULL(69,2; 1,83)
Ngun: Kt qu ca nghin cu
Qu trnh xy dng hm thnh vin (xy dng phn phi xc sut) v gii m c h tr bi phn mm Matlab. Cc hm thnh vin thng
gp trong nhm hm phn phi xc sut l phn phi chun (Normal), phn phi m (Exponential), phn phi Weibull, phn phi Lognormal,
phn phi Gamma. Ty vo tnh cht ca tng phn phi s c ng dng vo xc nh im s thng qua tnh cht ca tng ch tiu. C th,
i vi ch tiu t l cho vay th Nguyn Vn Nam v ctg (2004) cho rng cn phi xem xt n t l ti u cho ngn hng. Ngn hng cho vay
cng nhiu s lm tng ri ro thanh khon. Tuy vy, ngn hng tn dng c ti a ngun vn tm kim li nhun. Khi , cc phn phi c
nhn nh phn phi Normal, Weibull, Lognormal thng c xem xt biu din hm thnh vin.
1
Trong Bng 3, hm thnh vin ca cng ch tiu ti chnh c th khc nhau trong 2
nm xem xt. S thay i la chn hm thnh vin cho cng mt ch tiu trong 2 nm
lin tc th hin u im ca l thuyt m khi nh gi xp hng. C th, hy xem xt gi
tr trung bnh v lch chun ca ch tiu tng trng thu nhp trn c phn (EPS).
Nm 2010, EPS ca ngnh ngn hng tng trng bnh qun l 14,4% th hin s thun
li trong mi trng kinh t v chnh sch v m (GDP nm 2010 ca Vit Nam tng
6,78%). Tuy nhin, mc phn ha tng trng EPS nm 2010 rt ln thng qua
lch chun ln n 48,2%. Trong khi , trong nm 2011, vi kh khn ca nn kinh t
nh hng ng k n mc tng trng EPS ca cc ngn hng khi mc tng GDP
trong nm ca Vit Nam ch t 5,89%. Theo tnh ton, bnh qun cc ngn hng trong
mu xem xt, EPS st gim 13,6% nm 2011 v s chnh lch trong tng trng ca cc
ngn hng gim cn 33,5%.
Do vy, mt ngn hng c mc tng trng EPS nm 2010 l 0% c cho l km
hiu qu, khng tt ch tiu ny khi m cc ngn hng khc u tn dng c c hi
tng trng. Nhng nu vi mc tng trng EPS l 0% nm 2011 th ngn hng s
c nh gi hiu qu hn nhiu khi m cc ngn hng khc khng gi vng c
thnh qu v st gim thu nhp trn tng c phn (tc l mc tng trng EPS trong nm
2011 l mt con s m). iu ny s khc phc c tnh tnh trong trong nh gi xp
hng hin nay l nu i tng nh gi c cng gi tr 2 nm th im s l nh nhau.
im ng ch l cc ch tiu v Vn ch s hu/D n cho vay, T l cho
vay/Tng ti sn khng c s khc bit nhiu v gi tr trung bnh v lch chun trong
2 nm nghin cu. iu ny c th c gii thch bi chnh sch v c cu cho vay ca
ngn hng thng c n nh trong vi nm. Do , nhng thay i trong nn kinh t
cha tc ng nhiu n nhng ch tiu ny. Hn na, c cu vn hp l s c cc
ngn hng hng n tn dng hiu qu nht v ngun vn cng gip cho gi tr ti
u, thng qua cc thng s i din ca hm thnh vin (biu din bi hm phn phi xc
sut) cng c ngha.
8.2 Kt qu xp hng tn nhim ngn hng thng mi Vit Nam nm 2011
Sau khi xy dng hm thnh vin v xc nh Lut m ca tng ch tiu, nghin cu
thc hin nh gi hiu qu hot ng, o lng mc ri ro v trin vng pht trin
ca 34 NHTM Vit Nam trong nm 2010 v 2011. Kt qu ca nghin cu nhm mc
ch so snh vi kt qu phn loi ca NHNN thc hin trong thi gian gn y v nhm
nh gi, phn loi NHTM Vit Nam no n nh hn, hiu qu hn. Kt qu xp
hng khng mang hm ngn hng c ri ro ph sn hay khng n nh trong hot ng.
ang tn dng ngun vn cp tn dng hiu qu, ng thi kim sot tt ngun tn
dng cho vay.
Bng 4.
Chu
Cng thng (Vietinbank)
Xut nhp Khu (Eximbank)
Qun i (Military bank)
Hng Hi (Maritime bank)
Si Gn - H Ni (SHB)
Phn loi
ca nghin cu
1
1
1
1
1
1
Phn loi
ca NHNN
1
1
1
1
1
1
STB
Sacombank
TCB
VCB
VIB
Techcombank
Ngoi thng VN - Vietcombank
Quc t
1
1
1
1
1
1
VPB
ABB
BVB
HBB
MDB
NAB
OJB
PGB
WTB
An Bnh
Bo Vit
Nh H Ni (Habubank)
Pht trin M Kng
Nam
i Dng (Ocean bank)
Xng du Petrolimex
Phng Ty (Western bank)
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
K hiu
Ngn hng
ACB
CTG
EIB
MBB
MSB
SHB
Bng 5.
K hiu
Ngn hng
BID
VCA
DAB
EAB
Phn loi
ca nghin cu
2
2
1
1
Phn loi
ca NHNN
1
1
2
2
KLB
Kin Long
LVB
Lin Vit
DAB
i
EAB
ng
KLB
Kin Long
LVB
Lin Vit
Trung bnh ngnh
Chi ph/thu
nhp
(%)
NIM
(%)
T l ti
sn sinh li
(%)
Tng trng
tn dng
(%)
T l d
phng
(%)
40,45
45,51
38,72
44,72
46,67
4,27
4,67
5,23
4,21
3,70
93,43
80,40
92,20
90,41
87,88
19,93
14,83
19,91
29,73
17,65
0.99%
1.53%
1.14%
0.93%
1,38
K hiu
Ngn hng
MHB
SEA
DTB
i Tn (Trustbank)
Phn loi
ca NHNN
1
1
2
Ngun: Ngn hng Nh nc, Kt qu nghin cu
Bng 8.
Th
hng
Tn Ngn hng
Phn loi
nm 2011
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
MBB
EIB
SHB
CTG
VCB
TCB
EAB
VPB
ACB
HDB
STB
DAB
KLB
LVB
MSB
VIB
PGB
BID
VCA
OJB
WTB
DTB
NAB
HBB
ABB
BVB
MXB
MHB
OCB
NVB
PNB
SEA
SGB
VAB
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
3
3
3
3
3
3
4
Phn loi ca
NHNN nm
2011
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
Phn loi
nm 2010
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
3
2
1
1
1
2
2
4
1
4
1
3
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
1
1
2
3
Ngun: Kt qu ca nghin cu
Ghi ch: Th hng c sp xp theo im s t cao n thp ca nm 2011
9. KT LUN
Xp hng tn nhim nhm cung cp tn hiu cnh bo ri ro trong hot ng v
trin vng pht trin ca cc NHTM. Bn cnh , xp hng tn nhim cn ng vai tr
quan trng trong iu hnh v m, c bit l xp hng tn nhim ngn hng hin nay
ang c thc hin bi NHNN Vit Nam. Trong thi gian qua, cc NHTM c phn
trong nc c xp hng tn nhim bi cc t chc xp hng uy tn nc ngoi khi
cc ngn hng v h thng ti chnh Vit Nam bt u hi nhp vi th gii. Tuy nhin,
cc xp hng tn nhim c thc hin thng di mc u t; do vy, cc xp hng
quc t ny khng th cho thy s ph hp hay trt t xp hng ca cc NHTM Vit
Nam trn phng din hiu qu hot ng, ri ro kinh doanh, v trin vng pht trin.
Ngn hng Nh nc tin hnh nh gi v cng b phn loi xp hng ngn
hng trong nc minh bch ha hiu qu hot ng v o lng mc ri ro ca
cc ngn hng. T , nh u t, dn c, doanh nghip c nhng tiu ch v thc o
trc khi u t v gi tin. Kt qu phn loi ngn hng ca NHNN l rt cn thit v
kp thi trong thi im hin nay. Tuy vy, kt qu vn cha c s ng ng thun,
c bit l cc ngn hng b nh gi thp hn k vng do cha cng khai nhng tiu ch
v phng php nh gi khch quan trong phn loi ngn hng. Cc ngn hng khng
th xc nh c u l im yu so vi cc NHTM c phn khc nhm tm ra gii
php khc phc.
Nghin cu ny cung cp c cc yu t nh lng cn thit cho vic nh gi
hiu qu hot ng, mc ri ro v trin vng pht trin ca NHTM Vit Nam. Thng
qua phn tch ngha ca tng ch tiu v tnh hnh thc tin ti Vit Nam, cc tc gi
lc b cc ch tiu c tnh cht trng lp v thiu thng tin. T , 27 ch tiu ti chnh
trong h thng phn tch CAMELS c s dng nh hiu qu hot ng, mc ri
ro v trin vng pht trin ca mt ngn hng l b ch tiu cn thit trong xp hng tn
nhim ngn hng ti Vit Nam. 6 nhm ch tiu ti chnh ny c tng hp trn c s
ca: (i) C s l thuyt v qun tr h thng ngn hng; (ii) Cc thng l ngn hng quc
t; (iii) Bng chng thc nghim t cc quc gia khc; v (iv) c im hot ng ca h
thng ngn hng Vit Nam .
Kt qu ca nghin cu l ng gp b tiu ch trong xp hng tn nhim ngn
hng. Kt qu ca nghin cu ny cung cp nn tng l thuyt thng qua vic s dng 27
ch s ti chnh thuc 6 nhm ch s trong hot ng cc ngn hng Vit Nam cho cc
nghin cu thc nghim trong lnh vc ngn hng sau ny. iu nhn thy l cc ch s
ti chnh ny mang nhng ngha khc nhau.
Da trn b tiu ch c xy dng v ngh s dng trong nh gi hiu qu
hot ng, mc ri ro v trin vng pht trin ca ngn hng v da trn nn tng ca
l thuyt m, nghin cu thc hin nh gi, phn loi NHTM Vit Nam. Nghin cu
trnh by phng php, qui trnh thc hin nh gi ri ro theo l thuyt m v t kt
qu ph hp ln n 83,3% so vi kt qu ca NHNN. Vi kt qu c c, nghin cu
a ra c phng php khoa hc v r rng trong xp hng tn nhim ngn hng ti
Vit Nam.
Kt qu t c t nghin cu ny ch ra rng: (i) kt qu xp hng t nghin cu
ny ph hp vi phn loi ca NHNN; (ii) kt qu gn vi kt qu phn loi ca NHNN;
v (iii) khng tm thy kt qu ph hp. Nhm kt qu ph hp c 19/30 ngn hng v
nhm c kt qu gn vi kt qu cng b c 6/30 ngn hng. Trong nhm c kt qu gn
vi phn loi ca NHNN, Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BID) v Ngn hng
Bn Vit c kt qu xp hng thp hn 1 bc so vi xp hng ca Ngn hng Nh nc
trong nm 2011.
Bn cnh , kt qu nghin cu c c ng gp phng php xp hng tn
nhim ngn hng trong thc tin i vi NHNN. Bn cnh , nghin cu cng cung cp
nn tng l thuyt i vi cc nghin cu lin quan v lnh vc o lng ri ro, nh gi
hiu qu hot ng ngn hng ti Vit Nam. Kt qu cng cung cp cho cc bn c lin
quan tham kho trong u t, gi tin v qun l v m. c bit, trong qu trnh ti c
cu h thng ngn hng hin nay, thng qua kt qu xp hng tn nhim ngn hng s
gip qu trnh ti c cu hiu qu hn v t tn km hn.
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t chc tn dng, Thng t 13/2010/TT-NHNN.
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