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2025 Global Trends Final Report

2025 Global Trends Final Report

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Publicado porDeliajrs

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Published by: Deliajrs on Feb 05, 2010
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10/23/2011

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One aspect of the growing complexity of the
international system is that no single political
identity—such as the conflation of citizenship
and nationality—is likely to be dominant in
most societies by 2025. Class struggles will
matter as much as religion and ethnicity. The
Internet and other multi-media will enable the
revitalization of the reach of tribes, clans, and
other fealty-driven communities. Explosive
urbanization will facilitate the spread of these
identities and increase the likelihood of
clashes between groups. The increasing
numbers of migrants moving to cities from
rural areas will coalesce in neighborhoods
settled by previous co-ethnics or will find
themselves targeted for recruitment by gangs
and more complex criminal structures. As
these communities coalesce and become
“self-governing” or sometimes co-opted by
organized crime groups, state and local
government will face “no-go” areas in many
large cities as has already happened in cities
like Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro.

Although inherited and chosen layers of
identity will be as “authentic” as conventional
categories of citizenship and nationality, one
category possibly will continue to stand out.
Islam will remain a robust identity. Sectarian
and other differences within Islam will be a
source of tension or worse. The challenge of
Islamic activism could produce a more
intense backlash of Christian activism.
Nigeria, Ethiopia, and other places in Africa
will remain battlegrounds in this sectarian
struggle. In 2025, notions of multiethnic
integration and the value of “diversity” could
face a combination of challenges from
nationalists, religious zealots, and perhaps
some version of a revived Marxist and other
class-based or secular ideology.

available to social elites. This is relevant
because many of the economic trends that will
dominate the next two decades have the
potential to drive social fragmentation and
popular resentment, including the growing
gaps between rich and poor, the urban and
rural gulfs in India and China, the vast
disparities between nations and regions
advantaged or left behind by modernization,
and between states able to manage the
consequences of globalization and those with
governments unable to do so. Religious
activists can draw on sacred texts and long
historical tradition to frame popular
grievances in terms of social justice rhetoric
and egalitarianism.

If global economic growth did suffer a severe
reverse—akin to the Indonesian crisis of the
late 1990s but on a worldwide scale—
religiously based rural insurgencies and ethnic
struggles probably would ensue in a number
of countries including Brazil, India, China,
and in much of Africa. If even the
moderately severe projections of climate
change are correct, the impacts could spur
religious conflict through large sections of
Africa and Asia. Among the countries at
greatest risk of such conflict and scapegoating
of minority communities are a number of
predominantly Muslim countries with
significant Christian minorities (Egypt,
Indonesia, and Sudan); predominately
Christian states with substantial Muslim
minorities (e.g., DROC, Philippines, and
Uganda) or finely balanced between Christian
and Muslim (Ethiopia, Nigeria, and
Tanzania).

If religious structures offer vehicles to resist
globalization, they also help people cope with
those same forces, enhancing social stability
and economic development. Without
religious safety nets, the degree of chaos and
fragmentation in developing nations would be

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