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Projecoes Macro Itau Bba Longo Prazo Mar14
Projecoes Macro Itau Bba Longo Prazo Mar14
2011
2012
2013
2014E
2015E
2016E
2017E
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
5.2%
2.5%
2.0%
4.7%
10.4%
1.4%
3.9%
1.8%
1.5%
-0.4%
9.3%
3.0%
3.2%
2.8%
-0.6%
1.4%
7.8%
1.8%
2.8%
1.9%
-0.4%
1.5%
7.7%
1.5%
3.4%
2.8%
1.1%
1.1%
7.2%
2.0%
3.6%
3.1%
1.5%
1.3%
7.2%
2.1%
3.4%
2.6%
1.6%
1.2%
7.1%
2.1%
3.4%
2.2%
1.8%
1.1%
6.9%
2.1%
1.69
1.76
20
202
182
-2.2%
1.84
1.68
30
256
226
-2.1%
2.08
1.95
19
243
223
-2.4%
2.36
2.16
3
243
241
-3.7%
2.55
2.46
3
244
241
-3.6%
2.55
2.55
16
252
236
-2.9%
2.56
2.55
23
284
260
-2.9%
2.59
2.57
38
298
260
-2.7%
3,770
2,142
7.5%
4,143
2,473
2.7%
4,392
2,247
1.0%
4,838
2,240
2.3%
5,192
2,112
1.4%
5,635
2,210
2.0%
6,137
2,403
2.8%
6,678
2,594
2.7%
5.9%
6.5%
11.3%
13.9%
6.5%
6.1%
5.1%
4.3%
5.8%
6.2%
7.8%
8.6%
5.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
6.2%
6.0%
6.4%
6.4%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
10.75%
10.00%
4.57%
10.61%
6.00%
11.00%
11.71%
4.22%
10.86%
6.00%
7.25%
8.45%
2.47%
7.11%
5.50%
10.00%
8.43%
2.38%
9.85%
5.00%
11.00%
10.92%
4.40%
10.86%
5.00%
12.00%
11.83%
5.50%
11.86%
5.00%
12.00%
12.00%
5.66%
11.86%
5.00%
10.00%
10.87%
4.60%
9.87%
5.00%
1.9%
-3.3%
3.1%
-2.6%
2.4%
-2.5%
1.9%
-3.3%
1.3%
-4.4%
1.7%
-4.7%
1.7%
-3.9%
1.7%
-3.8%
Economia Mundial
Crescimento do PIB Mundial
EUA
Zona do Euro
Japo
China
CPI EUA
Brasil
Setor Externo e Taxa de Cmbio
BRL / USD Nominal final de perodo
BRL / USD mdia do ano
Balana Comercial USD Bil.
Exportaes USD Bil.
Importaes USD Bil.
Conta Corrente % PIB
Atividade Econmica
PIB Nominal BRL Bil.
PIB Nominal USD Bil.
Crescimento real do PIB
Inflao
IPCA
INPC
IGP-M
IPA-M
Taxa de Juros
Selic final de perodo
Selic mdia do ano
Taxa real de juros (SELIC/IPCA) final de perodo
CDI final de perodo
TJLP % Dez
Finanas Pblicas
Supervit Primrio % do PIB
Supervit Nominal % do PIB
39.2%
36.4%
35.3%
33.6%
34.8%
36.8%
36.4%
37.1%
2018E
2019E
2020E
2018
2019
2020
3.3%
2.0%
1.6%
1.1%
6.8%
2.1%
3.3%
2.0%
1.5%
1.1%
6.6%
2.1%
3.3%
2.0%
1.3%
1.1%
6.3%
2.1%
2.58
2.58
54
333
279
-2.3%
2.52
2.55
71
384
314
-1.8%
2.48
2.50
86
433
347
-1.5%
7,263
2,812
2.6%
7,893
3,101
2.5%
8,572
3,431
2.4%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
6.0%
9.00%
9.17%
2.99%
8.86%
5.00%
9.00%
9.00%
2.83%
8.86%
5.00%
9.00%
9.00%
2.83%
8.86%
5.00%
1.7%
-3.4%
1.7%
-3.4%
1.7%
-3.5%
37.6%
38.2%
38.9%