Technologicalsingularity

FromWikipedia,thefreeencyclopedia

Thetechnologicalsingularityisthehypotheticaladventofartificialgeneralintelligence(alsoknownas
"strongAI").Suchacomputer,computernetwork,orrobotwouldtheoreticallybecapableofrecursive
selfimprovement(redesigningitself),orofdesigningandbuildingcomputersorrobotsbetterthanitself.
Repetitionsofthiscyclewouldlikelyresultinarunawayeffectanintelligenceexplosion[1][2]
wheresmartmachinesdesignsuccessivegenerationsofincreasinglypowerfulmachines,creating
intelligencefarexceedinghumanintellectualcapacityandcontrol.Becausethecapabilitiesofsucha
superintelligencemaybeimpossibleforahumantocomprehend,thetechnologicalsingularityisan
occurrencebeyondwhicheventsmaybecomeunpredictable,unfavorable,orevenunfathomable.[3]
Thefirstuseoftheterm"singularity"inthiscontextwasmadein1958bytheHungarianborn
mathematicianandphysicistJohnvonNeumann.In1958,regardingasummaryofaconversationwith
vonNeumann,StanislawUlamdescribed"everacceleratingprogressoftechnologyandchangesinthe
modeofhumanlife,whichgivestheappearanceofapproachingsomeessentialsingularityinthehistory
oftheracebeyondwhichhumanaffairs,asweknowthem,couldnotcontinue".[4]Thetermwas
popularizedbymathematician,computerscientistandsciencefictionauthorVernorVinge,whoargues
thatartificialintelligence,humanbiologicalenhancement,orbraincomputerinterfacescouldbe
possiblecausesofthesingularity.[5]FuturistRayKurzweilcitedvonNeumann'suseofthetermina
forewordtovonNeumann'sclassicTheComputerandtheBrain.
Kurzweilpredictsthesingularitytooccuraround2045[6]whereasVingepredictssometimebefore
2030.[7]Atthe2012SingularitySummit,StuartArmstrongdidastudyofartificialgeneralintelligence
(AGI)predictionsbyexpertsandfoundawiderangeofpredicteddates,withamedianvalueof2040.
DiscussingthelevelofuncertaintyinAGIestimates,Armstrongsaidin2012,"It'snotfullyformalized,
butmycurrent80%estimateissomethinglikefiveto100years."[8]

Contents
1Manifestations
1.1Intelligenceexplosion
1.2Emergenceofsuperintelligence
1.3NonAIsingularity
2Plausibility
2.1Likelycause:exponentialgrowth
2.1.1Acceleratingchange
2.2Criticisms
3Ramifications
3.1Uncertaintyandrisk
3.2Implicationsforhumansociety
4Historyoftheidea
5Inpopularculture
6Seealso
7Notes
8References

Manifestations
Intelligenceexplosion
StrongAImightbringaboutanintelligenceexplosion,atermcoinedin1965byI.J.Good.[9]Although
technologicalprogresshasbeenaccelerating,ithasbeenlimitedbythebasicintelligenceofthehuman
brain,whichhasnot,accordingtoPaulR.Ehrlich,changedsignificantlyformillennia.[10]However,
withtheincreasingpowerofcomputersandothertechnologies,itmighteventuallybepossibletobuilda
machinethatismoreintelligentthanhumanity.[11]Ifasuperhumanintelligenceweretobeinvented
eitherthroughtheamplificationofhumanintelligenceorthroughartificialintelligenceitmightbeable
tobringtobeargreaterproblemsolvingandinventiveskillsthancurrenthumansarecapableof.Itmight
thendesignanevenmorecapablemachine,orrewriteitsownsoftwaretobecomeevenmore
intelligent.Thismorecapablemachinecouldthengoontodesignamachineofyetgreatercapability.
Theseiterationsofrecursiveselfimprovementcouldaccelerate,potentiallyallowingenormous
qualitativechangebeforeanyupperlimitsimposedbythelawsofphysicsortheoreticalcomputationset
in.[12][13][14]

Emergenceofsuperintelligence
Manyofthemostrecognizedwritersonthesingularity,suchasVernorVingeandRayKurzweil,define
theconceptintermsofthetechnologicalcreationofsuperintelligence.Theyarguethatitisdifficultor
impossibleforpresentdayhumanstopredictwhathumanbeings'liveswillbelikeinapostsingularity
world.[6][7][15]Theterm"technologicalsingularity"wasoriginallycoinedbyVinge,whomadean
analogybetweenthebreakdowninourabilitytopredictwhatwouldhappenafterthedevelopmentof
superintelligenceandthebreakdownofthepredictiveabilityofmodernphysicsatthespacetime
singularitybeyondtheeventhorizonofablackhole.[15]

NonAIsingularity
Somewritersuse"thesingularity"inabroaderwaytorefertoanyradicalchangesinoursocietybrought
aboutbynewtechnologiessuchasmolecularnanotechnology,[16][17][18]althoughVingeandother
prominentwritersspecificallystatethatwithoutsuperintelligence,suchchangeswouldnotqualifyasa
truesingularity.[7]Manywritersalsotiethesingularitytoobservationsofexponentialgrowthinvarious
technologies(withMoore'sLawbeingthemostprominentexample),usingsuchobservationsasabasis
forpredictingthatthesingularityislikelytohappensometimewithinthe21stcentury.[17][19]

Plausibility
GaryMarcusclaimsthat"virtuallyeveryoneintheA.I.fieldbelieves"thatmachineswilloneday
overtakehumansand"atsomelevel,theonlyrealdifferencebetweenenthusiastsandskepticsisatime
frame."[20]However,manyprominenttechnologistsandacademicsdisputetheplausibilityofa
technologicalsingularity,includingPaulAllen,JeffHawkins,JohnHolland,JaronLanier,andGordon
Moore,whoseMoore'sLawisoftencitedinsupportoftheconcept.[21][22][23]

Likelycause:exponentialgrowth

TheexponentialgrowthincomputingtechnologysuggestedbyMoore'sLawiscommonlycitedasa
reasontoexpectasingularityintherelativelynearfuture,anda
numberofauthorshaveproposedgeneralizationsofMoore's
Law.ComputerscientistandfuturistHansMoravecproposedin
a1998book[24]thattheexponentialgrowthcurvecouldbe
extendedbackthroughearliercomputingtechnologiespriorto
theintegratedcircuit.FuturistRayKurzweilpostulatesalawof
acceleratingreturnsinwhichthespeedoftechnologicalchange
(andmoregenerally,allevolutionaryprocesses[25])increases
exponentially,generalizingMoore'sLawinthesamemanneras
Moravec'sproposal,andalsoincludingmaterialtechnology
(especiallyasappliedtonanotechnology),medicaltechnology
andothers.[26]Between1986and2007,machines'application
specificcapacitytocomputeinformationpercapitahasroughly
RayKurzweilwritesthat,dueto
doubledevery14monthsthepercapitacapacityoftheworld's
paradigmshifts,atrendofexponential
generalpurposecomputershasdoubledevery18monthsthe
growthextendsMoore'slawfrom
globaltelecommunicationcapacitypercapitadoubledevery34
integratedcircuitstoearliertransistors,
monthsandtheworld'sstoragecapacitypercapitadoubled
vacuumtubes,relays,and
every40months.[27]Likeotherauthors,though,Kurzweil
electromechanicalcomputers.He
reservestheterm"singularity"forarapidincreasein
predictsthattheexponentialgrowth
intelligence(asopposedtoothertechnologies),writingfor
willcontinue,andthatinafew
examplethat"TheSingularitywillallowustotranscendthese
decadesthecomputingpowerofall
limitationsofourbiologicalbodiesandbrains...Therewillbe
computerswillexceedthatof
nodistinction,postSingularity,betweenhumanand
("unenhanced")humanbrains,with
[28]
machine". Hebelievesthatthe"designofthehumanbrain,
superhumanartificialintelligence
whilenotsimple,isnonethelessabilliontimessimplerthanit
appearingaroundthesametime.
[29]
appears,duetomassiveredundancy". Accordingto
Kurzweil,thereasonwhythebrainhasamessyandunpredictablequalityisbecausethebrain,likemost
biologicalsystems,isa"probabilisticfractal".[30]Healsodefineshispredicteddateofthesingularity
(2045)intermsofwhenheexpectscomputerbasedintelligencestosignificantlyexceedthesumtotalof
humanbrainpower,writingthatadvancesincomputingbeforethatdate"willnotrepresentthe
Singularity"becausetheydo"notyetcorrespondtoaprofoundexpansionofourintelligence."[31]
Acceleratingchange
Somesingularityproponentsargueitsinevitabilitythroughextrapolationofpasttrends,especiallythose
pertainingtoshorteninggapsbetweenimprovementstotechnology.Inoneofthefirstusesoftheterm
"singularity"inthecontextoftechnologicalprogress,StanislawUlam(1958)tellsofaconversationwith
JohnvonNeumannaboutacceleratingchange:
Oneconversationcenteredontheeveracceleratingprogressoftechnologyandchangesin
themodeofhumanlife,whichgivestheappearanceofapproachingsomeessential
singularityinthehistoryoftheracebeyondwhichhumanaffairs,asweknowthem,could
notcontinue.[4]
Hawkins(1983)writesthat"mindsteps",dramaticandirreversiblechangestoparadigmsorworldviews,
areacceleratinginfrequencyasquantifiedinhismindstepequation.Hecitestheinventionsofwriting,
mathematics,andthecomputerasexamplesofsuchchanges.

Kurzweil'sanalysisofhistoryconcludesthattechnologicalprogress
followsapatternofexponentialgrowth,followingwhathecallsthe
"LawofAcceleratingReturns".Whenevertechnologyapproachesa
barrier,Kurzweilwrites,newtechnologieswillsurmountit.He
predictsparadigmshiftswillbecomeincreasinglycommon,leading
to"technologicalchangesorapidandprofounditrepresentsa
ruptureinthefabricofhumanhistory".[32]Kurzweilbelievesthatthe
singularitywilloccurbeforetheendofthe21stcentury,settingthe
dateat2045.[33]HispredictionsdifferfromVingesinthathe
predictsagradualascenttothesingularity,ratherthanVinges
rapidlyselfimprovingsuperhumanintelligence.
Presumably,atechnologicalsingularitywouldleadtorapid
developmentofaKardashevTypeIcivilization,onethathas
achievedmasteryoftheresourcesofitshomeplanet.[34]

AccordingtoKurzweil,his
logarithmicgraphof15listsof
paradigmshiftsforkeyhistoric
eventsshowsanexponential
trend.

Oftciteddangersincludethosecommonlyassociatedwithmolecularnanotechnologyandgenetic
engineering.Thesethreatsaremajorissuesforbothsingularityadvocatesandcritics,andwerethe
subjectofBillJoy'sWiredmagazinearticle"Whythefuturedoesn'tneedus".[35]
TheAccelerationStudiesFoundation,aneducationalnonprofitfoundationfoundedbyJohnSmart,
engagesinoutreach,education,researchandadvocacyconcerningacceleratingchange.[36]Itproduces
theAcceleratingChangeconferenceatStanfordUniversity,andmaintainstheeducationalsite
AccelerationWatch(http://www.accelerationwatch.com/).
Recentadvances,suchasthemassproductionofgrapheneusingmodifiedkitchenblenders(2014)and
hightemperaturesuperconductorsbasedonmetamaterials,couldallowsupercomputerstobebuiltthat,
whileusingonlyasmuchpowerasatypicalCoreI7(45W),couldachievethesamecomputingpoweras
IBM'sBlueGene/Lsystem.[37][38]

Criticisms
Somecriticsassertthatnocomputerormachinewilleverachievehumanintelligence,whileothershold
thatthedefinitionofintelligenceisirrelevantifthenetresultisthesame.[39]
StevenPinkerstatedin2008,
(...)Thereisnottheslightestreasontobelieveinacomingsingularity.Thefactthatyoucan
visualizeafutureinyourimaginationisnotevidencethatitislikelyorevenpossible.Look
atdomedcities,jetpackcommuting,underwatercities,milehighbuildings,andnuclear
poweredautomobilesallstaplesoffuturisticfantasieswhenIwasachildthathavenever
arrived.Sheerprocessingpowerisnotapixiedustthatmagicallysolvesallyourproblems.
(...)[21]
MartinFordinTheLightsintheTunnel:Automation,AcceleratingTechnologyandtheEconomyofthe
Future[40]postulatesa"technologyparadox"inthatbeforethesingularitycouldoccurmostroutinejobs
intheeconomywouldbeautomated,sincethiswouldrequirealeveloftechnologyinferiortothatofthe
singularity.Thiswouldcausemassiveunemploymentandplummetingconsumerdemand,whichinturn

woulddestroytheincentivetoinvestinthetechnologiesthatwouldberequiredtobringaboutthe
Singularity.Jobdisplacementisincreasinglynolongerlimitedtoworktraditionallyconsideredtobe
"routine."[41]
JoanSlonczewskiandAdamGopnikarguethattheSingularityisagradualprocessthatashumans
graduallyoutsourceourabilitiestomachines,[42]weredefinethoseabilitiesasinhuman,without
realizinghowlittleisleft.ThisconceptiscalledtheMitochondrialSingularity.[43]Theidearefersto
mitochondria,theorganellethatevolvedfromautonomousbacteriabutnowpowersourlivingcells.In
thefuture,the"humanbeing"withinthemachineexoskeletonmayexistonlytoturniton.
JaredDiamond,inCollapse:HowSocietiesChoosetoFailorSucceed,arguesthatculturesselflimit
whentheyexceedthesustainablecarryingcapacityoftheirenvironment,andtheconsumptionof
strategicresources(frequentlytimber,soilsorwater)createsadeleteriouspositivefeedbackloopthat
leadseventuallytosocialcollapseandtechnologicalretrogression.
TheodoreModis[44][45]andJonathanHuebner[46]arguethattherateoftechnologicalinnovationhasnot
onlyceasedtorise,butisactuallynowdeclining(JohnSmart,however,criticizesHuebner's
analysis[47]).Evidenceforthisdeclineisthattheriseincomputerclockratesisslowing,evenwhile
Moore'spredictionofexponentiallyincreasingcircuitdensitycontinuestohold.Thisisduetoexcessive
heatbuildupfromthechip,whichcannotbedissipatedquicklyenoughtopreventthechipfrommelting
whenoperatingathigherspeeds.Advancementsinspeedmaybepossibleinthefuturebyvirtueofmore
powerefficientCPUdesignsandmulticellprocessors.[48]WhileKurzweilusedModis'resources,and
Modis'workwasaroundacceleratingchange,ModisdistancedhimselffromKurzweil'sthesisofa
"technologicalsingularity",claimingthatitlacksscientificrigor.[45]
Othersproposethatother"singularities"canbefoundthroughanalysisoftrendsinworldpopulation,
worldgrossdomesticproduct,andotherindices.AndreyKorotayevandothersarguethathistorical
hyperbolicgrowthcurvescanbeattributedtofeedbackloopsthatceasedtoaffectglobaltrendsinthe
1970s,andthushyperbolicgrowthshouldnotbeexpectedinthefuture.[49][50]
InTheProgressofComputing,WilliamNordhausarguedthat,priorto1940,computersfollowedthe
muchslowergrowthofatraditionalindustrialeconomy,thusrejectingextrapolationsofMoore'slawto
19thcenturycomputers.Schmidhuber(2006)suggestsdifferencesinmemoryofrecentanddistant
eventscreateanillusionofacceleratingchange,andthatsuchphenomenamayberesponsibleforpast
apocalypticpredictions.
AndrewKennedy,inhis2006paperfortheBritishInterplanetarySocietydiscussingchangeandthe
growthinspacetravelvelocities,[51]statedthatalthoughlongtermoverallgrowthisinevitable,itis
small,embodyingbothupsanddowns,andnoted,"Newtechnologiesfollowknownlawsofpoweruse
andinformationspreadandareobligedtoconnectwithwhatalreadyexists.Remarkabletheoretical
discoveries,iftheyendupbeingusedatall,playtheirpartinmaintainingthegrowthrate:theydonot
makeitsplottedcurve...redundant."Hestatedthatexponentialgrowthisnopredictorinitself,and
illustratedthiswithexamplessuchasquantumtheory.Thequantumwasconceivedin1900,and
quantumtheorywasinexistenceandacceptedapproximately25yearslater.However,ittookover40
yearsforRichardFeynmanandotherstoproducemeaningfulnumbersfromthetheory.Bethe
understoodnuclearfusionin1935,but75yearslaterfusionreactorsarestillonlyusedinexperimental
settings.Similarly,quantumentanglementwasunderstoodin1935butnotatthepointofbeingusedin
practiceuntilthe21stcentury.

PaulAllenarguestheoppositeofacceleratingreturns,thecomplexitybrake[23]themoreprogress
sciencemakestowardsunderstandingintelligence,themoredifficultitbecomestomakeadditional
progress.Astudyofthenumberofpatentsshowsthathumancreativitydoesnotshowaccelerating
returns,butinfact,assuggestedbyJosephTainterinhisTheCollapseofComplexSocieties,[52]alawof
diminishingreturns.Thenumberofpatentsperthousandpeakedintheperiodfrom1850to1900,and
hasbeendecliningsince.[46]Thegrowthofcomplexityeventuallybecomesselflimiting,andleadstoa
widespread"generalsystemscollapse".
JaronLanierrefutestheideathattheSingularityisinevitable.Hestates:"Idonotthinkthetechnologyis
creatingitself.It'snotananonymousprocess."Hegoesontoassert:"Thereasontobelieveinhuman
agencyovertechnologicaldeterminismisthatyoucanthenhaveaneconomywherepeopleearntheir
ownwayandinventtheirownlives.Ifyoustructureasocietyonnotemphasizingindividualhuman
agency,it'sthesamethingoperationallyasdenyingpeopleclout,dignityandselfdetermination...To
embrace[theideaoftheSingularity]wouldbeacelebrationofbadtasteandbadpolitics."[53]
Inadditiontogeneralcriticismsofthesingularityconcept,severalcriticshaveraisedissueswith
Kurzweil'siconicchart.Onelineofcriticismisthataloglogchartofthisnatureisinherentlybiased
towardastraightlineresult.OthersidentifyselectionbiasinthepointsthatKurzweilchoosestouse.For
example,biologistPZMyerspointsoutthatmanyoftheearlyevolutionary"events"werepicked
arbitrarily.[54]Kurzweilhasrebuttedthisbychartingevolutionaryeventsfrom15neutralsources,and
showingthattheyfitastraightlineonaloglogchart.TheEconomistmockedtheconceptwithagraph
extrapolatingthatthenumberofbladesonarazor,whichhasincreasedovertheyearsfromonetoas
manyasfive,willincreaseeverfastertoinfinity.[55]

Ramifications
Uncertaintyandrisk
Theterm"technologicalsingularity"reflectstheideathatsuchchangemayhappensuddenly,andthatit
isdifficulttopredicthowtheresultingnewworldwouldoperate.[56][57]Itisunclearwhetheran
intelligenceexplosionofthiskindwouldbebeneficialorharmful,orevenanexistentialthreat,[58][59]as
theissuehasnotbeendealtwithbymostartificialgeneralintelligenceresearchers,althoughthetopicof
friendlyartificialintelligenceisinvestigatedbytheFutureofHumanityInstituteandtheSingularity
InstituteforArtificialIntelligence,whichisnowtheMachineIntelligenceResearchInstitute.[56]

Implicationsforhumansociety
InFebruary2009,undertheauspicesoftheAssociationfortheAdvancementofArtificialIntelligence
(AAAI),EricHorvitzchairedameetingofleadingcomputerscientists,artificialintelligenceresearchers
androboticistsatAsilomarinPacificGrove,California.Thegoalwastodiscussthepotentialimpactof
thehypotheticalpossibilitythatrobotscouldbecomeselfsufficientandabletomaketheirown
decisions.Theydiscussedtheextenttowhichcomputersandrobotsmightbeabletoacquireautonomy,
andtowhatdegreetheycouldusesuchabilitiestoposethreatsorhazards.
Somemachineshaveacquiredvariousformsofsemiautonomy,includingtheabilitytolocatetheirown
powersourcesandchoosetargetstoattackwithweapons.Also,somecomputervirusescanevade
eliminationandhaveachieved"cockroachintelligence."Theconferenceattendeesnotedthatself
awarenessasdepictedinsciencefictionisprobablyunlikely,butthatotherpotentialhazardsandpitfalls
exist.[60]

Someexpertsandacademicshavequestionedtheuseofrobotsformilitarycombat,especiallywhen
suchrobotsaregivensomedegreeofautonomousfunctions.[61]AUnitedStatesNavyreportindicates
that,asmilitaryrobotsbecomemorecomplex,thereshouldbegreaterattentiontoimplicationsoftheir
abilitytomakeautonomousdecisions.[62][63]
TheAAAIhascommissionedastudytoexaminethisissue,[64]pointingtoprogramsliketheLanguage
AcquisitionDevice,whichwasclaimedtoemulatehumaninteraction.
Somesupportthedesignoffriendlyartificialintelligence,meaningthattheadvancesthatarealready
occurringwithAIshouldalsoincludeanefforttomakeAIintrinsicallyfriendlyandhumane.[65]
IsaacAsimov'sThreeLawsofRoboticsisoneoftheearliestexamplesofproposedsafetymeasuresfor
AI.Thelawsareintendedtopreventartificiallyintelligentrobotsfromharminghumans.InAsimovs
stories,anyperceivedproblemswiththelawstendtoariseasaresultofamisunderstandingonthepart
ofsomehumanoperatortherobotsthemselvesaremerelyactingtotheirbestinterpretationoftheir
rules.Inthe2004filmI,Robot,looselybasedonAsimov'sRobotstories,anAIattemptstotake
completecontroloverhumanityforthepurposeofprotectinghumanityfromitselfduetoan
extrapolationoftheThreeLaws.In2004,theMachineIntelligenceResearchInstitutelaunchedan
Internetcampaigncalled3LawsUnsafetoraiseawarenessofAIsafetyissuesandtheinadequacyof
Asimovslawsinparticular.[66]

Historyoftheidea
NicolasdeCondorcet,the18thcenturyFrenchmathematician,philosopher,andrevolutionary,is
commonlycreditedforbeingoneoftheearliestpersonstocontendtheexistenceofasingularity.Inhis
1794SketchforaHistoricalPictureoftheProgressoftheHumanMind,Condorcetstates,
Naturehassetnotermtotheperfectionofhumanfacultiesthattheperfectibilityofmanis
trulyindefiniteandthattheprogressofthisperfectibility,fromnowonwardsindependent
ofanypowerthatmightwishtohaltit,hasnootherlimitthanthedurationoftheglobe
uponwhichnaturehascastus.Thisprogresswilldoubtlessvaryinspeed,butitwillnever
bereversedaslongastheearthoccupiesitspresentplaceinthesystemoftheuniverse,and
aslongasthegenerallawsofthissystemproduceneitherageneralcataclysmnorsuch
changesaswilldeprivethehumanraceofitspresentfacultiesanditspresentresources."[67]
In1847,R.Thornton,theeditorofTheExpounderofPrimitiveChristianity,[68]wroteabouttherecent
inventionofafourfunctionmechanicalcalculator:
...suchmachines,bywhichthescholarmay,byturningacrank,grindoutthesolutionofa
problemwithoutthefatigueofmentalapplication,wouldbyitsintroductionintoschools,do
incalculableinjury.Butwhoknowsthatsuchmachineswhenbroughttogreaterperfection,
maynotthinkofaplantoremedyalltheirowndefectsandthengrindoutideasbeyondthe
kenofmortalmind!
In1863,SamuelButlerwroteDarwinAmongtheMachines,whichwaslaterincorporatedintohis
famousnovelErewhon.Hepointedouttherapidevolutionoftechnologyandcompareditwiththe
evolutionoflife.Hewrote:

Reflectupontheextraordinaryadvancewhichmachineshavemadeduringthelastfew
hundredyears,andnotehowslowlytheanimalandvegetablekingdomsareadvancing.The
morehighlyorganisedmachinesarecreaturesnotsomuchofyesterday,asofthelastfive
minutes,sotospeak,incomparisonwithpasttime.Assumeforthesakeofargumentthat
consciousbeingshaveexistedforsometwentymillionyears:seewhatstridesmachines
havemadeinthelastthousand!Maynottheworldlasttwentymillionyearslonger?Ifso,
whatwilltheynotintheendbecome?...wecannotcalculateonanycorrespondingadvance
inmansintellectualorphysicalpowerswhichshallbeasetoffagainstthefargreater
developmentwhichseemsinstoreforthemachines.
In1909,thehistorianHenryAdamswroteanessay,TheRuleofPhaseAppliedtoHistory,[69]inwhich
hedevelopeda"physicaltheoryofhistory"byapplyingthelawofinversesquarestohistoricalperiods,
proposinga"LawoftheAccelerationofThought."Adamsinterpretedhistoryasaprocessmoving
towardsan"equilibrium",andspeculatedthatthisprocesswould"bringThoughttothelimitofits
possibilitiesintheyear1921.Itmaywellbe!",addingthatthe"consequencesmaybeassurprisingas
thechangeofwatertovapor,ofthewormtothebutterfly,ofradiumtoelectrons."[70]ThefuturistJohn
SmarthascalledAdams"Earth'sFirstSingularityTheorist".[71]
In1951,AlanTuringspokeofmachinesoutstrippinghumansintellectually:[72]
oncethemachinethinkingmethodhasstarted,itwouldnottakelongtooutstripourfeeble
powers....Atsomestagethereforeweshouldhavetoexpectthemachinestotakecontrol,
inthewaythatismentionedinSamuelButler'sErewhon.
Inthemidfifties,StanislawUlamhadaconversationwithJohnvonNeumanninwhichvonNeumann
spokeof"everacceleratingprogressoftechnologyandchangesinthemodeofhumanlife,whichgives
theappearanceofapproachingsomeessentialsingularityinthehistoryoftheracebeyondwhichhuman
affairs,asweknowthem,couldnotcontinue."[4]
In1965,I.J.Goodfirstwroteofan"intelligenceexplosion",suggestingthatifmachinescouldeven
slightlysurpasshumanintellect,theycouldimprovetheirowndesignsinwaysunforeseenbytheir
designers,andthusrecursivelyaugmentthemselvesintofargreaterintelligences.Thefirstsuch
improvementsmightbesmall,butasthemachinebecamemoreintelligentitwouldbecomebetterat
becomingmoreintelligent,whichcouldleadtoacascadeofselfimprovementsandasuddensurgeto
superintelligence(orasingularity).
In1983,mathematicianandauthorVernorVingegreatlypopularizedGoodsnotionofanintelligence
explosioninanumberofwritings,firstaddressingthetopicinprintintheJanuary1983issueofOmni
magazine.Inthisopedpiece,Vingeseemstohavebeenthefirsttousetheterm"singularity"inaway
thatwasspecificallytiedtothecreationofintelligentmachines,[73][74]writing:
Wewillsooncreateintelligencesgreaterthanourown.Whenthishappens,humanhistory
willhavereachedakindofsingularity,anintellectualtransitionasimpenetrableasthe
knottedspacetimeatthecenterofablackhole,andtheworldwillpassfarbeyondour
understanding.Thissingularity,Ibelieve,alreadyhauntsanumberofsciencefiction

writers.Itmakesrealisticextrapolationtoaninterstellarfutureimpossible.Towriteastory
setmorethanacenturyhence,oneneedsanuclearwarinbetween...sothattheworld
remainsintelligible.
In1984,SamuelR.Delanyused"culturalfugue"asaplotdeviceinhissciencefictionnovelStarsinMy
PocketLikeGrainsofSandtheterminalrunawayoftechnologicalandculturalcomplexityineffect
destroysalllifeonanyworldonwhichittranspires,aprocesspoorlyunderstoodbythenovel's
characters,andagainstwhichtheyseekastabledefense.In1985,RaySolomonoffintroducedthenotion
of"infinitypoint"[75]inthetimescaleofartificialintelligence,analyzedthemagnitudeofthe"future
shock"that"wecanexpectfromourAIexpandedscientificcommunity"andonsocialeffects.Estimates
weremade"forwhenthesemilestoneswouldoccur,followedbysomesuggestionsforthemore
effectiveutilizationoftheextremelyrapidtechnologicalgrowththatisexpected".
VingealsopopularizedtheconceptinSFnovelssuchasMaroonedinRealtime(1986)andAFireUpon
theDeep(1992).Theformerissetinaworldofrapidlyacceleratingchangeleadingtotheemergenceof
moreandmoresophisticatedtechnologiesseparatedbyshorterandshortertimeintervals,untilapoint
beyondhumancomprehensionisreached.Thelatterstartswithanimaginativedescriptionofthe
evolutionofasuperintelligencepassingthroughexponentiallyacceleratingdevelopmentalstagesending
inatranscendent,almostomnipotentpowerunfathomablebymerehumans.Vingealsoimpliesthatthe
developmentmaynotstopatthislevel.
Inhis1988bookMindChildren,computerscientistandfuturistHansMoravecgeneralizesMoore'slaw
tomakepredictionsaboutthefutureofartificiallife.Moravecoutlinesatimelineandascenariointhis
regard,[76][77]inthatrobotswillevolveintoanewseriesofartificialspecies,startingaround2030
2040.[78]InRobot:MereMachinetoTranscendentMind,publishedin1998,Moravecfurtherconsiders
theimplicationsofevolvingrobotintelligence,generalizingMoore'slawtotechnologiespredatingthe
integratedcircuit,andspeculatingaboutacoming"mindfire"ofrapidlyexpandingsuperintelligence,
similartoVinge'sideas.
A1993articlebyVinge,"TheComingTechnologicalSingularity:HowtoSurviveinthePostHuman
Era",[7]spreadwidelyontheinternetandhelpedtopopularizetheidea.[79]Thisarticlecontainstheoft
quotedstatement,"Withinthirtyyears,wewillhavethetechnologicalmeanstocreatesuperhuman
intelligence.Shortlyafter,thehumanerawillbeended."Vingerefineshisestimateofthetimescales
involved,adding,"I'llbesurprisedifthiseventoccursbefore2005orafter2030."
Vingepredictedfourwaysthesingularitycouldoccur:[80]
1. Thedevelopmentofcomputersthatare"awake"andsuperhumanlyintelligent
2. Largecomputernetworks(andtheirassociatedusers)may"wakeup"asasuperhumanly
intelligententity
3. Computer/humaninterfacesmaybecomesointimatethatusersmayreasonablybeconsidered
superhumanlyintelligent
4. Biologicalsciencemayfindwaystoimproveuponthenaturalhumanintellect
Vingecontinuesbypredictingthatsuperhumanintelligenceswillbeabletoenhancetheirownminds
fasterthantheirhumancreators."Whengreaterthanhumanintelligencedrivesprogress,"Vingewrites,
"thatprogresswillbemuchmorerapid."Hepredictsthatthisfeedbackloopofselfimproving
intelligencewillcauselargeamountsoftechnologicalprogresswithinashortperiod,andstatesthatthe
creationofsuperhumanintelligencerepresentsabreakdowninhumans'abilitytomodeltheirfuture.His

argumentwasthatauthorscannotwriterealisticcharacterswhosurpassthehumanintellect,asthe
thoughtsofsuchanintellectwouldbebeyondtheabilityofhumanstoexpress.Vingenamedthisevent
"theSingularity".
DamienBroderick'spopularsciencebookTheSpike(1997)wasthefirsttoinvestigatethetechnological
singularityindetail.
In2000,BillJoy,aprominenttechnologistandacofounderofSunMicrosystems,voicedconcernover
thepotentialdangersofthesingularity.[81]
In2005,RayKurzweilpublishedTheSingularityisNear,whichbroughttheideaofthesingularityto
thepopularmediaboththroughthebook'saccessibilityandthroughapublicitycampaignthatincluded
anappearanceonTheDailyShowwithJonStewart.[82]Thebookstirredintensecontroversy,inpart
becauseKurzweil'sutopianpredictionscontrastedstarklywithother,darkervisionsofthepossibilities
ofthesingularity.Kurzweil,histheories,andthecontroversiessurroundingitwerethesubjectofBarry
Ptolemy'sdocumentaryTranscendentMan.
In2007,EliezerYudkowskysuggestedthatmanyofthevarieddefinitionsthathavebeenassignedto
"singularity"aremutuallyincompatibleratherthanmutuallysupporting.[17]Forexample,Kurzweil
extrapolatescurrenttechnologicaltrajectoriespastthearrivalofselfimprovingAIorsuperhuman
intelligence,whichYudkowskyarguesrepresentsatensionwithbothI.J.Good'sproposed
discontinuousupswinginintelligenceandVinge'sthesisonunpredictability.
In2008,RobinHanson(taking"singularity"torefertosharpincreasesintheexponentofeconomic
growth)listedtheAgriculturalandIndustrialRevolutionsaspastsingularities.Extrapolatingfromsuch
pastevents,Hansonproposesthatthenexteconomicsingularityshouldincreaseeconomicgrowth
between60and250times.Aninnovationthatallowedforthereplacementofvirtuallyallhumanlabor
couldtriggerthisevent.[83]
In2009,KurzweilandXPrizefounderPeterDiamandisannouncedtheestablishmentofSingularity
University,whosestatedmissionis"toeducate,inspireandempowerleaderstoapplyexponential
technologiestoaddresshumanitysgrandchallenges."[84]FundedbyGoogle,Autodesk,ePlanet
Ventures,andagroupoftechnologyindustryleaders,SingularityUniversityisbasedatNASA'sAmes
ResearchCenterinMountainView,California.Thenotforprofitorganizationrunsanannualtenweek
graduateprogramduringthenorthernhemispheresummerthatcoverstendifferenttechnologyand
alliedtracks,andaseriesofexecutiveprogramsthroughouttheyear.
In2010,AubreydeGreyappliedtheterm"Methuselarity"[85]tothepointatwhichmedicaltechnology
improvessofastthatexpectedhumanlifespanincreasesbymorethanoneyearperyear.In"Apocalyptic
AIVisionsofHeaveninRobotics,ArtificialIntelligence,andVirtualReality"[86](2010),Robert
Geracioffersanaccountofthedeveloping"cybertheology"inspiredbySingularitystudies.The1996
novelHolyFirebyBruceSterlingexploressomeofthosethemesandpostulatesthataMethuselarity
willbecomeagerontocracy.
In2011,Kurzweilnotedexistingtrendsandconcludedthatitappearedincreasinglylikelythatthe
singularitywouldoccuraround2045.HetoldTimemagazine:"Wewillsuccessfullyreverseengineer
thehumanbrainbythemid2020s.Bytheendofthatdecade,computerswillbecapableofhumanlevel
intelligence."[87]

Inpopularculture

JamesP.Hogan's1979novelTheTwoFacesofTomorrowisanexplicitdescriptionofwhatisnow
calledtheSingularity.Anartificialintelligencesystemsolvesanexcavationproblemonthemoonina
brilliantandnovelway,butnearlykillsaworkcrewintheprocess.Realizingthatsystemsarebecoming
toosophisticatedandcomplextopredictormanage,ascientificteamsetsouttoteachasophisticated
computernetworkhowtothinkmorehumanly.Thestorydocumentstheriseofselfawarenessinthe
computersystem,thehumans'lossofcontrolandfailedattemptstoshutdowntheexperimentasthe
computerdesperatelydefendsitself,andthecomputerintelligencereachingmaturity.
Whilediscussingthesingularity'sgrowingrecognition,VernorVingewrotein1993that"itwasthe
sciencefictionwriterswhofeltthefirstconcreteimpact."Inadditiontohisownshortstory"Bookworm,
Run!",whoseprotagonistisachimpanzeewithintelligenceaugmentedbyagovernmentexperiment,he
citesGregBear'snovelBloodMusic(1983)asanexampleofthesingularityinfiction.Vingedescribed
survivingthesingularityinhis1986novelMaroonedinRealtime.Vingelaterexpandedthenotionof
thesingularitytoagalacticscaleinAFireUpontheDeep(1992),anovelpopulatedbytranscendent
beings,eachtheproductofadifferentraceandpossessedofdistinctagendasandoverwhelmingpower.
InWilliamGibson's1984novelNeuromancer,artificialintelligencescapableofimprovingtheirown
programsarestrictlyregulatedbyspecial"Turingpolice"toensuretheyneverexceedacertainlevelof
intelligence,andtheplotcentersontheeffortsofonesuchAItocircumventtheircontrol.
AmalevolentAIachievesomnipotenceinHarlanEllison'sshortstoryIHaveNoMouth,andIMust
Scream(1967).
ThewebcomicQuestionableContenttakesplaceina"FriendlyAI"postsingularityworld.[88]
Popularmoviesinwhichcomputersbecomeintelligentandtrytooverpowerthehumanraceinclude
Colossus:TheForbinProjecttheTerminatorseriesTheMatrixseriesTransformerstheveryloose
filmadaptationofIsaacAsimov'sI,RobotandfinallyStanleyKubrickandArthurC.Clarke's2001:A
SpaceOdyssey.ThetelevisionseriesDr.Who,BattlestarGalactica,andStarTrek:TheNextGeneration
(whichalsodelvesintovirtualreality,cybernetics,alternativeformsoflife,andMankind'spossible
evolutionarypath)alsoexplorethesethemes.Outofallthese,onlyColossusfeaturesatrue
superintelligence."TheMachine"bywriterdirectorCaradogJamesfollowstwoscientistsastheycreate
theworld'sfirstselfawareartificialintelligenceduringacoldwar.TheentireplotofWallyPfister's
Transcendencecentersonanunfoldingsingularityscenario.The2013sciencefictionfilmHerfollowsa
man'sromanticrelationshipwithahighlyintelligentAI,whoeventuallylearnshowtoimproveherself
andcreatesanintelligenceexplosion.TheadaptationofPhilipK.Dick'sDoAndroidsDreamofElectric
Sheep?intothefilmBladeRunner,ExMachina,andTronexploretheconceptofthegenesisofthinking
machinesandtheirrelationtoandimpactonhumanity.
Acceleratingprogressfeaturesinsomesciencefictionworks,andisacentralthemeinCharlesStross's
Accelerando.OthernotableauthorsthataddresssingularityrelatedissuesincludeRobertHeinlein,Karl
Schroeder,GregEgan,KenMacLeod,RudyRucker,DavidBrin,IainM.Banks,NealStephenson,Tony
Ballantyne,BruceSterling,DanSimmons,DamienBroderick,FredricBrown,JacekDukaj,Stanislaw
Lem,NagaruTanigawa,DouglasAdams,MichaelCrichton,andIanMcDonald.
ThedocumentaryTranscendentMan,basedonTheSingularityIsNear,coversKurzweil'squestto
revealwhathebelievestobemankind'sdestiny.Anotherdocumentary,Plug&Pray,focusesonthe
promise,problemsandethicsofartificialintelligenceandrobotics,withJosephWeizenbaumand
Kurzweilasthemainsubjectsofthefilm.[89]A2012documentarytitledsimplyTheSingularitycovers
bothfuturistandcounterfuturistperspectives.[90]

Inmusic,albumTheSingularity(PhaseI:Neohumanity)bytheSwedishbandScarSymmetryispart
oneofthethreepartconceptalbumbasedontheeventsofthesingularity.

Seealso
Eschatology
Exocortex
Futuresstudies
Globalbrain
Singularitarianism
StrongAI,hypotheticalartificialintelligencethatmatchesorexceedshumanintelligence.
Technologicaldeterminism
Technologicalrevolution
TranscensionHypothesis
Outlineoftranshumanism
Uploadedastronauts

Notes
1. DavidChalmersonSingularity,IntelligenceExplosion(http://singinst.org/blog/2010/04/08/davidchalmers
onsingularityintelligenceexplosion/).April8th,2010.SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence.
2. Editor'sBlogWhyanIntelligenceExplosionisProbable(http://hplusmagazine.com/2011/03/07/whyan
intelligenceexplosionisprobable/),byRichardLoosemoreandBenGoertzel.March7,2011hplusmagazine.
3. Carvalko,Joseph(2012).TheTechnohumanShellAJumpintheEvolutionaryGap.SunburyPress.
ISBN9781620061657.
4. Ulam,Stanislaw(May1958)."TributetoJohnvonNeumann"(http://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5
JeCa2Z7hbWcxTGsyU09HSTg/edit?pli=1).64,#3,part2.BulletinoftheAmericanMathematicalSociety.
p.5.
5. Vinge,Vernor."VernorVingeontheSingularity"(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vingesing.html).SanDiego
StateUniversity.Retrieved11April2013.
6. RayKurzweil,TheSingularityisNear,pp.135136.PenguinGroup,2005.
7. Vinge,Vernor."TheComingTechnologicalSingularity:HowtoSurviveinthePostHumanEra"
(http://wwwrohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html),originallyinVision21:Interdisciplinary
ScienceandEngineeringintheEraofCyberspace,G.A.Landis,ed.,NASAPublicationCP10129,pp.11
22,1993
8. Armstrong,Stuart."HowWe'rePredictingAI"
(http://fora.tv/2012/10/14/Stuart_Armstrong_How_Were_Predicting_AI),fromthe2012Singularity
Conference
9. Good,I.J."SpeculationsConcerningtheFirstUltraintelligentMachine"
(http://www.stat.vt.edu/tech_reports/2005/GoodTechReport.pdf),AdvancesinComputers,vol.6,1965.
10. Ehrlich,Paul.TheDominantAnimal:HumanEvolutionandtheEnvironment
(http://www.longnow.org/seminars/02008/jun/27/dominantanimalhumanevolutionandenvironment/)
11. "Superbrainsbornofsiliconwillchangeeverything"
(http://www.businessweek.com/1999/99_35/b3644021.htm).businessweek.com.
12. Good,I.J.,"SpeculationsConcerningtheFirstUltraintelligentMachine"
(http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~sutton/Good65ultraintelligent.pdf),FranzL.AltandMorrisRubinoff,ed.,
AdvancesinComputers(AcademicPress)6:3188,1965.
13. TheHumanImportanceoftheIntelligenceExplosion(http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/people
blog/2007/thehumanimportanceoftheintelligenceexplosion/)
14. Good,I.J.1965"SpeculationsConcerningtheFirstUltraintelligentMachine"
(http://webdocs.cs.ualberta.ca/~sutton/Good65ultraintelligent.pdf).pp.3188inAdvancesinComputers,6,F.
L.AltandMRubinoff,eds.NewYork:AcademicPress.
15. "WhatistheSingularity?|SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence"
(http://singinst.org/overview/whatisthesingularity).Singinst.org.Retrieved20110909.

16. "h+Magazine|Coveringtechnological,scientific,andculturaltrendsthatarechanginghumanbeingsin
fundamentalways"(http://www.hplusmagazine.com/articles/nano/singularitynanotechorai).
Hplusmagazine.com.Retrieved20110909.
17. Yudkowsky,Eliezer.TheSingularity:ThreeMajorSchools(http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools)
18. Sandberg,Anders.Anoverviewofmodelsoftechnologicalsingularity(http://agiconf.org/2010/wp
content/uploads/2009/06/agi10singmodels2.pdf)
19. "MaxMoreandRayKurzweilontheSingularity"(http://www.kurzweilai.net/maxmoreandraykurzweilon
thesingularity2).KurzweilAI.Retrieved20110909.
20. Marcus,Gary(24Oct2013)."WhyWeShouldThinkAbouttheThreatofArtificialIntelligence"
(http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/elements/2013/10/whyweshouldthinkaboutthethreatof
artificialintelligence.html).NewYorker.Retrieved15July2014.
21. "TechLuminariesAddressSingularityIEEESpectrum"(http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/tech
luminariesaddresssingularity).Spectrum.ieee.org.Retrieved20110909.
22. "Who'sWhoInTheSingularityIEEESpectrum"(http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/whoswho
inthesingularity).Spectrum.ieee.org.Retrieved20110909.
23. PaulAllen:TheSingularityIsn'tNear(http://www.technologyreview.com/view/425733/paulallenthe
singularityisntnear),retrieved20150412
24. Moravec,Hans(1999).Robot:MereMachinetoTranscendentMind(http://books.google.co.uk/books?
id=fduW6KHhWtQC&pg=PA61).OxfordU.Press.p.61.
25. RayKurzweil,TheAgeofSpiritualMachines,Viking,1999,p.30(http://books.google.com/books?
id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA630#v=onepage&q&f=false)andp.32(http://books.google.com/books?
id=ldAGcyh0bkUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA632#v=onepage&q&f=false)
26. RayKurzweil,TheSingularityisNear,PenguinGroup,2005
27. "TheWorld'sTechnologicalCapacitytoStore,Communicate,andComputeInformation"
(http://www.sciencemag.org/content/332/6025/60),MartinHilbertandPriscilaLpez(2011),Science
(journal),332(6025),6065freeaccesstothearticlethroughhere:martinhilbert.net/WorldInfoCapacity.html
28. RayKurzweil,TheSingularityisNear,p.9.PenguinGroup,2005
29. Kurzweil,Ray(10October2008)."Thesingularity:Thelastword[forum]"
(http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.mutex.gmu.edu/stamp/stamp.jsp?
tp=&arnumber=4635038&isnumber=4635032&tag=1).IEEE45:10.doi:10.1109/MSPEC.2008.4635038
(https://dx.doi.org/10.1109%2FMSPEC.2008.4635038).Retrieved2October2013.
30. Kurzweil,Ray(10October2008)."Thesingularity:Thelastword[forum]"
(http://ieeexplore.ieee.org.mutex.gmu.edu/stamp/stamp.jsp?
tp=&arnumber=4635038&isnumber=4635032&tag=1).IEEE45:10.doi:10.1109/MSPEC.2008.4635038
(https://dx.doi.org/10.1109%2FMSPEC.2008.4635038).Retrieved2October2013.
31. RayKurzweil,TheSingularityisNear,pp.135136.PenguinGroup,2005."Sowewillbeproducingabout
1026to1029cpsofnonbiologicalcomputationperyearintheearly2030s.Thisisroughlyequaltoour
estimateforthecapacityofalllivingbiologicalhumanintelligence...Thisstateofcomputationintheearly
2030swillnotrepresenttheSingularity,however,becauseitdoesnotyetcorrespondtoaprofoundexpansion
ofourintelligence.Bythemid2040s,however,thatonethousanddollars'worthofcomputationwillbeequal
to1026cps,sotheintelligencecreatedperyear(atatotalcostofabout$1012)willbeaboutonebilliontimes
morepowerfulthanallhumanintelligencetoday.Thatwillindeedrepresentaprofoundchange,anditisfor
thatreasonthatIsetthedatefortheSingularityrepresentingaprofoundanddisruptivetransformationin
humancapabilityas2045."
32. (Kurzweil2001)
33. (Kurzweil2005)
34. Zubrin,Robert.1999,EnteringSpace:CreatingaSpacefaringCivilization
35. (Joy2000)
36. (AccelerationStudiesFoundation2007)
37. "Howtomakegrapheneinakitchenblender"(http://blogs.nature.com/news/2014/04/howtomakegraphene
inakitchenblender.html).nature.com.
38. "Metamaterialsofferroutetoroomtemperaturesuperconductivity"
(http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/2013/dec/03/metamaterialsofferroutetoroomtemperature
superconductivity).physicsworld.com.

39. Dreyfus&Dreyfus2000,p.xiv:'Thetruthisthathumanintelligencecanneverbereplacedwithmachine
intelligencesimplybecausewearenotourselves"thinkingmachines"inthesenseinwhichthattermis
commonlyunderstood.'Hawking(1998):'Somepeoplesaythatcomputerscannevershowtrueintelligence
whateverthatmaybe.Butitseemstomethatifverycomplicatedchemicalmoleculescanoperateinhumans
tomakethemintelligentthenequallycomplicatedelectroniccircuitscanalsomakecomputersactinan
intelligentway.Andiftheyareintelligenttheycanpresumablydesigncomputersthathaveevengreater
complexityandintelligence.'
40. Ford,Martin,TheLightsintheTunnel:Automation,AcceleratingTechnologyandtheEconomyoftheFuture
(http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com),AcculantPublishing,2009,ISBN9781448659814
41. Markoff,John(20110304)."ArmiesofExpensiveLawyers,ReplacedbyCheaperSoftware"
(http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/05/science/05legal.html).TheNewYorkTimes.
42. AdamGopnik,NewYorker,2011,http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2011/04/04/getsmartadamgopnik
43. JoanSlonczewski,MitochondrialSingularity,2013,http://ultraphyte.com/2013/03/25/mitochondrial
singularity/
44. TheodoreModis,ForecastingtheGrowthofComplexityandChange(http://www.growth
dynamics.com/articles/TedWEB.htm),TechnologicalForecasting&SocialChange,69,No4,2002
45. Modis,Theodore.TheSingularityMyth(http://www.growthdynamics.com/articles/Kurzweil.htm)
46. Huebner,Jonathan(2005)"APossibleDecliningTrendforWorldwideInnovation"
(http://81.47.175.201/flagship/attachments/InnovationHuebnerTFSC2005.pdf),TechnologicalForecasting&
SocialChange,October2005,pp.9806
47. Smart,John(September2005),OnHuebnerInnovation,AccelerationStudiesFoundation
(http://accelerating.org/articles/huebnerinnovation.html),retrievedon20070807
48. Krazit,Tom.Intelpledges80coresinfiveyears(http://news.cnet.com/21001006_36119618.html),CNET
News,26September2006.
49. See,e.g.,KorotayevA.,MalkovA.,KhaltourinaD.IntroductiontoSocialMacrodynamics:Compact
MacromodelsoftheWorldSystemGrowth(http://cliodynamics.ru/index.php?
option=com_content&task=view&id=124&Itemid=70).Moscow:URSSPublishers,2006KorotayevA.V.A
CompactMacromodelofWorldSystemEvolution//JournalofWorldSystemsResearch11/1(2005):7993.
(http://jwsr.ucr.edu/archive/vol11/number1/pdf/jwsrv11n1korotayev.pdf)
50. ForadetailedmathematicalanalysisofthisissueseeACompactMathematicalModeloftheWorldSystem
EconomicandDemographicGrowth,1CE1973CE(http://arxiv.org/abs/1206.0496).
51. InterstellarTravel:TheWaitCalculationandtheIncentiveTrapofProgress,JBISVol59,N.7July2006
52. Tainter,Joseph(1988)"TheCollapseofComplexSocieties
(http://monoskop.org/images/a/ab/Tainter_Joseph_The_Collapse_of_Complex_Societies.pdf)"(Cambridge
UniversityPress)
53. JaronLanier,WhoOwnstheFuture?,NewYork:Simon&Schuster,2013.P.328.
54. Myers,PZ,SingularlySillySingularity
(http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2009/02/singularly_silly_singularity.php),retrieved20090413
55. Anonymous(18March2006),"Morebladesgood"(http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=5624861),TheEconomist(London)378(8469):85
56. Yudkowsky,Eliezer(2008),Bostrom,NickCirkovic,Milan,eds.,"ArtificialIntelligenceasaPositiveand
NegativeFactorinGlobalRisk"(http://singinst.org/AIRisk.pdf)(PDF),GlobalCatastrophicRisks(Oxford
UniversityPress):303,Bibcode:2008gcr..book..303Y(http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008gcr..book..303Y),
ISBN9780198570509
57. "TheUncertainFuture"(http://www.theuncertainfuture.com/).theuncertainfuture.comafuturetechnology
andworldmodelingproject.
58. GLOBALCATASTROPHICRISKSSURVEY(2008)TechnicalReport2008/1PublishedbyFutureof
HumanityInstitute,OxfordUniversity.AndersSandbergandNickBostrom
(http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0020/3854/globalcatastrophicrisksreport.pdf)
59. "ExistentialRisks:AnalyzingHumanExtinctionScenariosandRelatedHazards"
(http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html).nickbostrom.com.
60. ScientistsWorryMachinesMayOutsmartMan(http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/26/science/26robot.html?
_r=1&ref=todayspaper)ByJOHNMARKOFF,NYTimes,July26,2009.
61. Callfordebateonkillerrobots(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/technology/8182003.stm),ByJasonPalmer,
Scienceandtechnologyreporter,BBCNews,8/3/09.

62. Mick,Jason.NewNavyfundedReportWarnsofWarRobotsGoing"Terminator"
(http://www.dailytech.com/New%20Navyfunded%20Report%20Warns%20of%20War%20Robots%20Going
%20Terminator/article14298.htm),Blog,dailytech.com,February17,2009.
63. Flatley,JosephL.Navyreportwarnsofrobotuprising,suggestsastrongmoralcompass
(http://www.engadget.com/2009/02/18/navyreportwarnsofrobotuprisingsuggestsastrongmoralcom/),
engadget.com,18February2009.
64. AAAIPresidentialPanelonLongTermAIFutures20082009Study(http://research.microsoft.com/en
us/um/people/horvitz/AAAI_Presidential_Panel_20082009.htm),AssociationfortheAdvancementof
ArtificialIntelligence,Accessed7/26/09.
65. ArticleatAsimovlaws.com(http://www.asimovlaws.com/articles/archives/2004/07/why_we_need_fri_1.html),
July2004,accessed7/27/2009.
66. (SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence2004)
67. "Mission"(http://2010.singularitysummit.com.au/aboutus/mission/).SingularitySummitAustraliaFuture
ofScienceandTechnology.
68. Thornton,Richard(1847),TheExpounderofPrimitiveChristianity(http://books.google.com/?
id=ZM_hAAAAMAAJ&dq=%22Primitive%20Expounder%22%20thornton%201847&pg=PA281#v=onepage
&q=thinking%20machine&f=false)4,AnnArbor,Michigan,p.281
69. Adams,H.(1909)"Theruleofphaseappliedtohistory."InH.Adams&B.Adams(1920),TheDegradation
oftheDemocraticDogma.NewYork:Macmillan,267311.
70. Adams(1909),p.309
71. "ABriefHistoryofIntellectualDiscussionofAcceleratingChange"
(http://www.accelerationwatch.com/history_brief.html).Accelerationwatch.com.Retrieved20130817.
72. AMTuring,IntelligentMachinery,AHereticalTheory
(http://philmat.oxfordjournals.org/content/4/3/256.full.pdf),1951,reprintedPhilosophiaMathematica(1996)
4(3):256260doi:10.1093/philmat/4.3.256(https://dx.doi.org/10.1093%2Fphilmat%2F4.3.256)
73. Dooling,Richard.RapturefortheGeeks:WhenAIOutsmartsIQ(2008),p.88
(http://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA88#v=onepage&q&f=false)
74. Vingedidnotactuallyusethephrase"technologicalsingularity"intheOmnioped,buthedidusethisphrase
intheshortstorycollectionThreatsandOtherPromisesfrom1988,writingintheintroductiontohisstory
"TheWhirligigofTime"(p.72):Barringaworldwidecatastrophe,Ibelievethattechnologywillachieveour
wildestdreams,andsoon.Whenweraiseourownintelligenceandthatofourcreations,wearenolongerin
aworldofhumansizedcharacters.Atthatpointwehavefallenintoatechnological"blackhole,"a
technologicalsingularity.
75. Solomonoff,R.J."TheTimeScaleofArtificialIntelligence:ReflectionsonSocialEffects"
(http://world.std.com/~rjs/timesc.pdf),HumanSystemsManagement,Vol5,pp.149153,1985.
76. Moravec,Hans(1998),"Whenwillcomputerhardwarematchthehumanbrain?"
(http://www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm),JournalofEvolutionandTechnology1,retrieved
20060623.
77. Moravec,Hans(June1993)."TheAgeofRobots"
(http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1993/Robot93.html).Retrieved20060623.
78. Moravec,Hans(April2004)."RobotPredictionsEvolution"
(http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/robot.papers/2004/Predictions.html).Retrieved20060623.
79. Dooling,Richard.RapturefortheGeeks:WhenAIOutsmartsIQ(2008),p.89
(http://books.google.com/books?id=VbBRsv1lxsUC&lpg=PP1&pg=PA89#v=onepage&q&f=false)
80. TheComingTechnologicalSingularity:HowtoSurviveinthePostHumanEra(http://www
rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html),byVernorVinge,DepartmentofMathematicalSciences,
SanDiegoStateUniversity,(c)1993byVernorVinge.
81. Joy,Bill(April2000),"Whythefuturedoesntneedus"
(http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html),WiredMagazine(VikingAdult)(8.04),ISBN0670
032492,retrieved20070807
82. Episodedated23August2006(http://www.imdb.com/title/tt847969/)attheInternetMovieDatabase
83. RobinHanson,"EconomicsOfTheSingularity"(http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/robotics/robotics
software/economicsofthesingularity),IEEESpectrumSpecialReport:TheSingularity,retrieved20080911
&LongTermGrowthAsASequenceofExponentialModes(http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.pdf)
84. SingularityUniversity(http://singularityu.org/)atitsofficialwebsite
85. deGrey,Aubrey.ThesingularityandtheMethuselarity:similaritiesanddifferences
(http://www.sens.org/node/514)

86. Geraci,RobertM(2010).ApocalypticAIVisionsofHeaveninRobotics,ArtificialIntelligence,andVirtual
Reality.OxfordUniversityPress.ISBN9780195393026.
87. 2045:TheYearManBecomesImmortal
(http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2048299,00.html),ByLevGrossmanThursday,Feb.10,
2011time.com.
88. Jacques,Jeph."They'veHadAISince1996"(http://www.questionablecontent.net/view.php?comic=1780).
QuestionableContent.Retrieved9June2015.
89. Plug&Pray(http://www.plugandprayfilm.de/en/)Documentaryfilm(2010)aboutthepromise,problemsand
ethicsofartificialintelligenceandrobotics
90. "TheSingularity:ADocumentarybyDougWolens"(http://ieet.org/index.php/IEET/more/olson20130301).
Ieet.org.Retrieved20131022.

References
AccelerationStudiesFoundation(2007),ASF:AbouttheFoundation
(http://www.accelerating.org/about.html),retrieved20071113
Anonymous(18March2006),"Morebladesgood"(http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?
story_id=5624861),TheEconomist(London)378(8469):85
Bell,JamesJohn(2002),TechnotopiaandtheDeathofNature:Clones,Supercomputers,andRobots
(http://www.earthisland.org/journal/index.php/eij/article/technotopia_the_death_of_nature/),EarthIsland
Journal(firstpublishedintheNovember/December2001issueoftheEarthFirst!Journal),retrieved
20070807
Bell,JamesJohn(1May2003),"ExploringThe"Singularity" "
(http://www.mindfully.org/Technology/2003/SingularityBell1may03.htm),TheFuturist(WorldFuture
Society(mindfully.org)),retrieved20070807
Berglas,Anthony(2008),ArtificialIntelligencewillKillourGrandchildren
(http://berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGrandchildren.html),retrieved20080613
Broderick,Damien(2001),TheSpike:HowOurLivesAreBeingTransformedbyRapidlyAdvancing
Technologies,NewYork:Forge,ISBN0312877811
Bostrom,Nick(2002),"ExistentialRisks"(http://www.nickbostrom.com/existential/risks.html),Journalof
EvolutionandTechnology9,retrieved20070807
Bostrom,Nick(2003),"EthicalIssuesinAdvancedArtificialIntelligence"
(http://www.nickbostrom.com/ethics/ai.html),Cognitive,EmotiveandEthicalAspectsofDecisionMakingin
HumansandinArtificialIntelligence2:1217,retrieved20070807
Dreyfus,HubertL.Dreyfus,StuartE.(1March2000),MindoverMachine:ThePowerofHumanIntuition
andExpertiseintheEraoftheComputer(1ed.),NewYork:FreePress,ISBN0743205510
Ford,Martin(2009),TheLightsintheTunnel:Automation,AcceleratingTechnologyandtheEconomyofthe
Future(http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com),CreateSpace,ISBN9781448659814.
Good,I.J.(1965),FranzL.AltandMorrisRubinoff,ed.,"SpeculationsConcerningtheFirstUltraintelligent
Machine"
(http://web.archive.org/web/20010527181244/http://www.aeiveos.com/~bradbury/Authors/Computing/Good
IJ/SCtFUM.html),AdvancesinComputers,AdvancesinComputers(AcademicPress)6:3188,
doi:10.1016/S00652458(08)604180(https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2FS00652458%2808%29604180),
ISBN9780120121069,retrieved20070807
Hanson,Robin(1998),SomeSkepticism
(https://web.archive.org/web/20090828023928/http://hanson.gmu.edu/vc.html),RobinHanson,retrieved
20090619
Hanson,Robin(June2008),"EconomicsoftheSingularity",IEEESpectrum
Hawking,Stephen(1998),ScienceintheNextMillennium:RemarksbyStephenHawking
(http://clinton2.nara.gov/Initiatives/Millennium/shawking.html),retrieved20071113
Hawkins,GeraldS.(August1983),MindstepstotheCosmos,HarperCollins,ISBN0060151560
Heylighen,Francis(2007),"AcceleratingSocioTechnologicalEvolution:fromephemeralizationand
stigmergytotheglobalbrain"(http://pespmc1.vub.ac.be/Papers/AcceleratingEvolution.pdf)(PDF),in
Modelski,G.Devezas,T.Thompson,W.,GlobalizationasanEvolutionaryProcess:ModelingGlobal
Change,London:Routledge,ISBN9780415773614

Hibbard,Bill(5November2014)."EthicalArtificialIntelligence".arXiv:1411.1373
(https://arxiv.org/abs/1411.1373)[cs.AI(https://arxiv.org/archive/cs.AI)].
Johansen,AndersSornette,Didier(25January2001),"Finitetimesingularityinthedynamicsoftheworld
population,economicandfinancialindices"(http://hjem.get2net.dk/kgs/growthphysA.pdf)(PDF),PhysicaA
294(34):465502,arXiv:condmat/0002075(https://arxiv.org/abs/condmat/0002075),
Bibcode:2001PhyA..294..465J(http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2001PhyA..294..465J),doi:10.1016/S0378
4371(01)001054(https://dx.doi.org/10.1016%2FS03784371%2801%29001054),retrieved20071030
Joy,Bill(April2000),"Whythefuturedoesn'tneedus"(http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/8.04/joy.html),
WiredMagazine(VikingAdult)(8.04),ISBN0670032492,retrieved20070807
Kurzweil,Raymond(2001),"TheLawofAcceleratingReturns"
(http://lifeboat.com/ex/law.of.accelerating.returns),NaturePhysics(LifeboatFoundation)4(7):507,
Bibcode:2008NatPh...4..507B(http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008NatPh...4..507B),doi:10.1038/nphys1010
(https://dx.doi.org/10.1038%2Fnphys1010),retrieved20070807
Kurzweil,Raymond(2005),TheSingularityIsNear,NewYork:Viking,ISBN0670033847
Moravec,Hans(January1992),"PigsinCyberspace"
(http://www.frc.ri.cmu.edu/~hpm/project.archive/general.articles/1992/CyberPigs.html),OntheCosmology
andEcologyofCyberspace,retrieved20071121
Mahmud,Ashik(June2015),"Post/HumanBeings&Technosalvation:ExploringArtificialIntelligencein
SelectedScienceFictions"(http://www.socratesjournal.com/index.php/socrates/article/view/150/html_145),
SocratesJournal,doi:10.7910/DVN/VAELLN(https://dx.doi.org/10.7910%2FDVN%2FVAELLN),retrieved
20150626
Schmidhuber,Jrgen(29June2006)."NewMillenniumAIandtheConvergenceofHistory".
arXiv:cs/0606081(https://arxiv.org/abs/cs/0606081)[cs.AI(https://arxiv.org/archive/cs.AI)].
SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence(2002),WhyArtificialIntelligence?
(https://web.archive.org/web/20061004201151/http://www.singinst.org/intro/whyAIprint.html)
SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence(2004),3LawsUnsafe
(https://web.archive.org/web/20110323234811/http://www.asimovlaws.com/),retrieved20070807
SingularityInstituteforArtificialIntelligence(2007),WhatistheSingularity?
(http://www.singinst.org/overview/whatisthesingularity),retrieved20080104
Smart,John(September2005),OnHuebnerInnovation
(http://accelerating.org/articles/huebnerinnovation.html),AccelerationStudiesFoundation,retrieved
20070807
Ulam,Stanislaw(May1958),"TributetoJohnvonNeumann",BulletinoftheAmericanMathematicalSociety
64(nr3,part2):149,doi:10.1090/S000299041958101895(https://dx.doi.org/10.1090%2FS00029904
1958101895)
Vinge,Vernor(3031March1993),"TheComingTechnologicalSingularity"(http://www
rohan.sdsu.edu/faculty/vinge/misc/singularity.html),Vision21:InterdisciplinaryScience&Engineeringin
theEraofCyberSpace,proceedingsofaSymposiumheldatNASALewisResearchCenter(NASA
ConferencePublicationCP10129),retrieved20070807.SeealsothisHTMLversion
(http://mindstalk.net/vinge/vingesing.html),retrievedon20090329.
Warwick,Kevin(2004),MarchofTheMachines,UniversityofIllinoisPress,ISBN9780252072239

Retrievedfrom"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?
title=Technological_singularity&oldid=669756625"
Categories: Eschatology Futurology Philosophyofartificialintelligence Singularitarianism
Criticismofscience
Thispagewaslastmodifiedon3July2015,at09:07.
TextisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttributionShareAlikeLicenseadditionalterms
mayapply.Byusingthissite,youagreetotheTermsofUseandPrivacyPolicy.Wikipediaisa
registeredtrademarkoftheWikimediaFoundation,Inc.,anonprofitorganization.