Biofuels 2.

0:
From Garage to Gargantuan

Jim Lane
Editor & Publisher, Biofuels Digest

February 2010 - Stanford-MIT Venture Lab Forum

Advanced Biofuels 2009-13

Millions of
gallons
Ad’vanced bi’o’fuels (n.) - biofuel
2,000 made from non-food biomass,
using an advanced processing
1679.19
technology.
1,500

1,000 934.19

500
266.13
119.2
6.73
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
US Biofuels Mandates

Millions of
gallons

20,000
16550
15200
15,000 13950
12950

11100

10,000

5,000
1679
934
6 119 266
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Advanced Biofuels All Biofuels

 Global oil consumption

Millions of gallons

1,500,000 1,408,803
1,381,180
1,354,098
1,327,540
1,301,517

1,125,000

750,000

375,000

6 11100 119 12950 266 13950 934 15200 1679

16550
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Advanced Biofuels All Biofuels Oil demand

Why bio: storage

15,000

12225

11,250

7,500

3,750

700
0
Bio (molecular) Electrons

Wh/kg
Why bio: mobility

0.4
35%

0.3

0.2

0.1

1%
0
Bio (molecular) Electrons

Transmission loss
Why now: Proven oil reserves

Years remaining
Current usage (1.48 Tg/yr): 35 years
Energy justice case: (6.8 Tg/yr): 7.6 years

Source: BP reference case

Food vs Fuel

Global potential biomass production

175 tons per acre per year
7.680 billion arable acres
16 million BTUs/ton of biomass
21,000 quad BTUs

Global food demand

0.19 quads

Sources: NASA, USGS

Current industrial model sustainability challenges

Time cost of Energy cost of

Social cost of industrial model
industrial model industrial model
Old Industrial “scale” model New Distributed model

Raw materials

Labor

Raw materials

Labor

End users
Processor

Processor

End users