1.

00
Autocorrelations of D.lecl_sa
0.00
0.50
-0.50
0

10

Lag

15

20

25

15

20

25

Bartlett's formula for MA(q) 95% confidence bands

-0.20

Partial autocorrelations of D.lecl_sa

0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80

AR(3)Ma(2)

10

95% Confidence bands [se = 1/sqrt(n)]

Lag

0.20
Autocorrelations of u2_decl_sa
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
-0.60
0

10

Lag

Bartlett's formula for MA(q) 95% confidence bands

15

20

25

-.1

Primeras Diferencias. Exp. Litio, D

-.05
0
.05
95% Confidence bands [se = 1/sqrt(n)]

2000m1
5
10

2002m1
Lag
15

2004m1

20
25

2006m1
t
2008m1
2010m1
2012m1

-0.60

Partial autocorrelations of u2_decl_sa

-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20

0.60
Autocorrelations of u2_decl_sa
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
-0.40
0

10

Lag

15

20

25

15

20

25

-0.50

Partial autocorrelations of u2_decl_sa

0.00
0.50

Bartlett's formula for MA(q) 95% confidence bands

10

95% Confidence bands [se = 1/sqrt(n)]

Lag

.05
Primeras Diferencias. Exp. Litio, D
-.05
0
-.1
2000m1

2002m1

2004m1

2006m1
t

2008m1

2010m1

2012m1

10

Density

20

30

Normalidad de los Residuos:ECL

-.06

-.04

-.02
0
residual, one-step

.02

.04

-.04

-.02

.02

.04

Pronstico ARIMA DECL_SA

2010m1

2010m7

2011m1
observado

2011m7

2012m1
pronstico

2012m7